Participatory Free and Open Source GIS in the Web 2.0 Exploring trends in GIS in times of Collaborative Creation
大阪市立大学 Technology Foresight An Approach to Free and Open Source Geospatial Software Web and beyond 2.0 IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK
F oresight Studies Look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society
● Introduction ● Web 2.0 ● Maps and Web 2.0 ● Trends in FOSS4G and Web 2.0 ● Methodology ● Conclusions O utline
はじめに Predictions Individual Experts
はじめに "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK
はじめに "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949 IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK
はじめに IMG SRC:Jupiter Images "640K ought to be enough for anybody." Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal
Are they Systematic predictions? Do Experts foresee the future correctly? ? IMG SRC:Slide Share
Galton's Surprise
Galton's Surprise Actual Collective Weight: Guess: 1198 lbs 1197 lbs (544.55Kg) (544.09Kg)
IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets)
The IEM is an on-line futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns.
The market is operated by the University of Iowa College of Business faculty as an educational and research project.
IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK IMG SRC:BBC News
IQ? IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK
People desire to connect, communicate, and participate
Tools
4,000,000 >80,000,000
1.5 Million
A platform for building applications that harness collective intelligence
IQ! IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK
Enhances creativity information sharing & collaboration among users
! Web 2.0 is a set of social, economic, and technology trends that collectively form the basis for the generation of the Internet—a more mature, distinct medium characterized by user participation, openness, and network effects . O’Reilly Media
WEB 2.0 and maps
The Web 2.0 helped the creation and publishing of online maps making the process easier and more accessible to average users.
The Web 2.0 Web Mapping is a growing field that goes beyond collecting and analyzing GIS data
The Web 2.0 important to combine free and open geographic data, GPS, and data management tools into one resource for mapping information.
Trends
1
Cloud Computing
management of documents and business through online applications
2
{ Mash-ups and widgets }
* small embeddable components that can be integrated into third party sites and deliver content from beyond the realm of the original site
2007 was denominated as “the year of the widget” by Business Week magazine
3
Whatever Whenever Wherever I want!
{ Ubiquitous }
Geospatial information and GSTs are becoming accessible in new forms and through a wide range of applications & devices As the technology develops it is important to discuss the potentials, problems and technical issues of emerging ubiquitous GI services.
4
{ Semantics }
The WEB understand and satisfy the requests of people and machines to use the web content
data that can be processed and understood directly or indirectly by machines
Interoperability
“The future Semantic Geospatial web may be a situation where discovery, query, and consumption of Geospatial content are based on semantic specifications” (OGC, 2008)
科学的方法論 Methodology & Tools
Foresight activities in Japan.
Foresight in 日本 * Year Foresight Methodologies st Technology Foresight 1971 1 Delphi nd Technology Foresight 1977 2 Delphi rd Technology Foresight 1982 3 Delphi th Technology Foresight 1987 4 Delphi th Technology Foresight 1992 5 Delphi th Technology Foresight 1997 6 Delphi th Technology Foresight 2001 7 Delphi th Technology Foresight 2005 8 Multi-Methodology rd S&T Basic Plan towards the 3 2006 to 2010 Innovation 25 * J apan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP, 2007)
Foresight in 日本 * NISTEP * assessed the accuracy of the results From the first Delphi survey in 1970. 64% of topics had been fully or partially realized in the intervening 20 years. * J apan’s National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP, 2007)
F oresight Studies Methodological Multidisciplinary Future- oriented Participative Evidence-based Coordinated Action-oriented strategical
Delphi Method Systematic interactive forecasting method to obtain forecasts from a panel of independent experts 科学的方法論
科学的方法論 Δελφο * A group , as opposed to individual, judgment of trends can improve the validity of forecasts. * Delphi is a Greek word refering to Oracle Island
IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK Diverse, Heterogeneous
What Experts? Understand the Technology Create & use the Content Social and Business 科学的方法論
Objective* * 問題の背景と 研究の目的
IMG SRC:Vlad Studio What lies ahead for Geospatial technologies?
Target: OSGeo * * Open Source Geospatial
Questions OSGeo Technology trends OSGeo for Content generation and distribution OSGeo Social and Business Model
まとめ Conclusions This research hopes to ...
まとめ Conclusions 1 Provide Tangible results future trends of FOSS GSTs Technologies
まとめ Conclusions 2 Provide insights on what can be thought, re-thought in current developments in FOSS GSTs
まとめ 3 Conclusions Spot New Social and Business models for FOSS GSTs
大阪市立大学 What does FOSS4G Mean to this research? ?
大阪市立大学 An opportunity to contact the worlds' most active and passionate professionals in the Geospatial field
Participate Participate!
How?
* http://gisws.media.osaka-cu.ac.jp/gistrends
Or...
Interview
参照 References Harold A The Delphi Method T echniques andApplications Portland State . ● University Murray T uroff New Jersey Institute of T echnology University of Southern California , & , ● 2002 Murray T uroff and Harold A Linstone . ● ● . Erle S Gibson R and Walsh J , . . , . 2005, Mapping Hacks Tips : & T ools for Electronic Cartography First Edition O’Reilly Media United States of America ● Gibson R and Erle S Google Map Hacks Tips T ools for Geographic Searching . , . 2006, : & ● and Remixing First Edition O’Reilly Media United States of America . , . ● Helmer O Rescher N october The epistemology of inexact sciences The . & . ( 13 1958). ● analysis of the Future The Delphi Method Olaf Helmer March The RAND ( 1967) ● Corporation Santa , Monica California , ● Herman I , . 2008. W C Semantic Web Activity 3 2008, ( W C Semantic Web Activity 3 ) 2008 ●
参照 References SUROWIECKi James The Wisdom of Crowds Why the Many Are Smarter Than , (2004). : ● the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business Economies Societies and , , Nations Little Brown , ● # MITCenter for Collective Intelligence Prof T . om Malone s research center ' http cci mit edu :// . . / ● DOTMOCRACY http :// dotmocracy org . /
大阪市立大学 Thank you! daniele.ocu@gmail.com
大阪市立大学 Osaka City University Graduate school 4 Creative Cities IMG SRC:GNOME LOOK
Appendix
Methodology, the Delphi Method The carefully selected experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.
Select the Experts
Distribute the Questionare
Assist the experts
Obtain Answers
Organize, Synthesize
Receive Feedback
Do it Again
Analize, Calculate conclusions
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