Barriers and opportunities: Approaches to sensitive LCS sectors ~ An - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Barriers and opportunities: Approaches to sensitive LCS sectors

~An automotive industry’s view~

14 February 2008

Masayuki Sasanouchi Toyota Motor Corporation

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World Energy-related CO2 Emissions by Sector in the Reference Scenario

(26 Billion Ton-CO2)

2 %

1 8 % 1 3 % 8 %

9 % 1 2 % 1 7 %

P

• w

e r G e n e r a t i

• n

4 ％ I n d u s t r y

（ I n d u s t r i a l p r

• c

e s s ）

T r a n s p

• r

t R e s i d e n t i a l O t h e r s I n d u s t r y R e s .

P u b l i c S e r v i c e

（ 1 . 6 b i l l i

• n
• t
• n

） （ 4 . 7 b i l l i

• n
• t
• n

） （ 5 . 3 b i l l i

• n
• t
• n

） （ 3 . 3 b i l l i

• n
• t
• n

） （ 2 . 2 b i l l i

• n
• t
• n

）

（ C a l c u l a t e d b y I E A d a t a )

O t h e r s 7 ％

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Kaya Identity

CO2 = CO2/E x E/GDP x GDP/P x P

CO2: Total carbon dioxide emission E: Energy, P: Population CO2 : Back casting target (-50% by 2050) GDP/P, P: To be projected (fundamental human rights) CO2/E, E/GDP: To be challenged (innovation, evolution, and deployment of technologies)

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4

Growing World Population and Owned Vehicles

Population（Billion） Owned Vehicles（Billion） 8.9 B People 2 10 5 1

• ○
• 6.3 B

people 0.8 B Vehicles （ Ownership rate = 13 %） 1.3 B Vehicles (Assuming 15% Ownership) 1.1 B Vehicles (13% Ownership) 2003 2050

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Economic Growth and Mobility Demand

P a s s e n g e r T r a v e l a n d G D P b y R e g i

• n

: 1 9 5

• 1

9 9 7 5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 5 1 1 5 2 2 5 G D P p e r c a p i t a , U S $ ( 1 9 8 5 ) P a s s e n g e r

• k

m p e r C a p i t a

N

• r

t h A m e r i c a P a c i f i c O E C D ( J a p a n , A u s t r a l i a ) W e s t e r n E u r

• p

e I n d i a

C h i n a

$ 1 = ¥ 250 (1985 Year) Source: WBCSD Mobility 2001

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Projected CO2 Emission from Transport with Combined Technology

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Fuel Efficiency and Mass Trend

0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Mass

Specific fuel efficiency Technology innovation

1990 2000 2000 2000 Japan EU US US Passenger cars Source : IEA “Review of International Policies fro Vehicle Fuel Efficiency”

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Example:Japan Fuel efficiency standard(Front Runner Approach)

Importance of Benchmarking

Bottom Up >>Top Down

• Improvement of engine efficiency

e.g. Direct-injection engine, Reduction of friction loss, etc.

• Improvement of driving-train

e.g. Multiple AT (5AT, 6AT)

• Dissemination of hybrid system

Fuel-Economy (km/l) Weight (kg) Source: Japan MLIT Base year Target year Front- runner

Target

Prospective technology improvement Fuel-Economy (km/l) Weight (kg) Source: Japan MLIT Base year Target year Front- runner

Target

Prospective technology improvement

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Example:Japan Fuel efficiency standard

Status of Front Runner Approach

2 1 7 2 6 2 2 6 8

2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5 2 5 5 2 6 5 2 7 5

9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4

M M t

• C

O

2 / y e a r

BAU

Introduction of the Front Runner Standard

• 2

1 7 2 6 2 2 6 8

2 1 5 2 2 5 2 3 5 2 4 5 2 5 5 2 6 5 2 7 5

9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4

M M t

• C

O

2 / y e a r

Year BAU

Advantages of Plug-in Hybrid Car

USA USA Japan Japan France France

0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% 100% 100%

Thermal Thermal Hydraulic Hydraulic Nuclear Nuclear

Electricity mix by country Electricity mix by country Well to Wheel CO2 reduction Well to Wheel CO2 reduction

1 . 1 . . 5 . 5 U S A U S A

P r i u s P r i u s P l u g i n H y b r i d C a r P l u g i n H y b r i d C a r

Well to Wheel CO

2

reduction

（ P r i u s ＝１

）

Well to Wheel CO

2

reduction

（ P r i u s ＝１

）

C O

2

C O

2

G a s

• l

i n e G a s

• l

i n e

E 8 5 E 8 5

J a p a n J a p a n

F r a n c e F r a n c e

W h e n d r i v i n g f

• r

2 5 k m ( 1 3 k m b y e l e c t r i c i t y )

（ T

• y
• t

ae s t i m a t e s )

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Social advantages: Well to Wheel CO2 reduction is possible. Combining with biofuel will further increase the effect. Social advantages: Well to Wheel CO2 reduction is possible. Combining with biofuel will further increase the effect.

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“Parallel Approach”

The Ultimate Eco-car

Alternative fuel

Hybrid Hybrid

Diesel DI Diesel DI VVT VVT-

• i

i Direct Fuel Direct Fuel injection. injection. EV EV CNG CNG

Hybrid Technology Hybrid Technology Ｆ Ｃ Ｈ Ｖ Ｆ Ｃ Ｈ Ｖ

Gasoline Electricity Diesel