12 February 2009 Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
12 February 2009 Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium Norichika KANIE Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology Tokyo Institute of Technology kanie@valdes.titech.ac.jp 1 Research Questions for the Team
12 February 2009 Japan Low-Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Project Symposium Norichika KANIE Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology Tokyo Institute of Technology kanie@valdes.titech.ac.jp
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It is safer to prepare the situation where
Japan should reduce emissions by at least 60％ to about 90％ in 2050 (from ‘90 level)
Taking uncertainty also into account.
impact level (level of temperature increase) is calculated
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ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time‐frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. ARTICLE 3. 3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. ARTICLE 4: COMMITMENTS All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall…
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ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time‐frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. ARTICLE 3. 3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. ARTICLE 4: COMMITMENTS All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, shall…
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Dangerous
ＩＰＣＣ-TAR
Impacts on vulnerable ecosystems such as vegetation shift and breech of coral leaf Impacts on various sectors including water resources, agriculture, forestry and human health in many regions around the world. Severe and irreversible impacts such as THC shutdown, collapse of Greenland Ice sheet and West Antarctic Ice sheet Extremely dangerous
Potential impacts by temperature increase from pre-industrial level (ΔT ℃)
○ΔT≦1℃： I mpacts to vulnerable ecosystems are likely to occur even with ΔT as much as 1℃. Therefore, if we aim at avoiding the potential impacts to the vulnerable ecosystems, ΔT needs to be kept below 1℃. On the other hand, considering the temperature increase by about
0.6℃ in the 20th century and the projected changes in population and economic activity in the 21st century, it is prohibitively difficult to keep ΔT less than 1℃.
○ΔT≦２℃：
With ΔT by 2 – 3 ℃, it is indicated that adverse impact will emerge globally. Therefore, for proactively preventing global-scale adverse impact from occurring, it is necessary to keep ΔT less than 2℃. Furthermore, some studies suggest steep increases in adverse impacts with
ΔT by about 2℃. From the point of view of effectively preventing wide spread of adverse impacts,
it makes sense to choose 2℃ as upper limit of tolerable ΔT.
○３℃＜ΔT：
According to several scientific evidences, with ΔT larger than 3℃, threshold to keep stability of climate system is crossed over and probability of singular events such as THC shutdown will increase. Since exceeding this level of ΔT increases the risk of severe and irreversible adverse impacts globally, we must avoid it definitely. It should be noted, however, that research results regarding levels needed for keeping climate system stability are limited, and therefore more science knowledge development is in demand. Based on the scientific knowledge above, the idea of keeping ΔT below 2℃ can be a starting point of discussion about long-term stabilization target.
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5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year C O 2eq (G tC /yr) CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&500ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm BaU
5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year CO2eq_KP (GtC/yr) CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm CS=2.6&500ppm BaU 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Temperature increase (1990=0.6) CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm 系列1 BaU 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year CO2eq concentration CS=1.7 CS=2.0 CS=2.5 CS=2.6 CS=3.0 CS=2.6&475ppm CS=2.6&550ppm CS=2.6&650ppm CS=2.6&500ppm BaU
Cosmopolitanism Cosmopolitanism Nationalism Communitarianism Rationalism /Individualism
International cooperation
World government
Balance of power Globalism Dispersal of power
Closed regional blocs Clash
civilizations ／ Localism Global marketplace
international political change according to ideological stances
Cosmopolitanism Cosmopolitanism
Nationalism
Close to the idea of Contraction and Convergence
・Convergence year 2050, 2070,
2100
Close to the idea of Intensity target ・intensity improve at the same degree throughout ・intensity converge in 2070 or 2100
Communitarianism Rationalism /Individualism
GHG/GDP converge 2070 GHG/GDP converge 2100
Ultimate goal
Emission reduction of Japan 2050: range of required reduction for 2℃ target
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mt-CO2eq
18％～44％ reduction 60％～80％ reduction Cases for climate sensitivity 3℃・・・82％ to 93％reduction required
In order to achieve the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to stabilize the level of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, we must curb the global greenhouse gas emissions to the same level as the capacity of natural sinks. Bearing this in mind, I propose setting a long-term target of cutting global emissions by half from the current level by 2050 as a common goal for the entire world. Considering the fact that current global emissions are more than double the capacity of natural sinks, which means that gas concentrations in the atmosphere will only increase, it is imperative that we first share this goal internationally.
Global Environment, vol12, No.2
Case1,2 from ‘90 level, Case3,4 from 2000 level, Case5,6 from 2004 level
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Required GHG emission reduction and its path for Japan in case of halving GHG emissions (Kyoto six gases) in 2050 Required GHG emission reduction for major emitters (from 1990 level)
C&C 2050
Japan USA EU Russia AI China India Brazil R of Korea
Case1 （2.2℃）
85% 88% 83% 94% 88% 35%
62% 73%
Case2 （2.3℃）
85% 88% 83% 94% 88% 35%
61% 73%
Case3 （2.2℃）
83% 86% 80% 93% 86% 26%
56% 69%
Case4 （2.4℃）
83% 86% 80% 93% 86% 26%
56% 69%
Case5 （2.3℃）
81% 85% 78% 92% 85% 19%
52% 66%
Case6 （2.6℃）
81% 85% 78% 92% 85% 19%
52% 66%
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Individualism Idealism Realism
Multilateral Cooperation Scenario
Communitarianism
Required emission reduction for Japan in case of halving global emissions in 2050 (C&C 2050) 2050 2030 From 1990 From 2000 From 1990 From 2000 Case1 （2.2℃） 85.2% 85.9% 65.4% 67.2% Case2 （2.4℃） 85.0% 85.7% 51.6% 54.1% Case3 （2.3℃） 82.9% 83.8% 61.9% 63.9% Case4 （2.5℃） 82.9% 83.8% 49.5% 52.1% Case5 （2.4℃） 81.4% 82.3% 58.6% 60.7% Case6 （2.6℃） 81.4% 82.3% 43.1% 46.0% Required emission reduction for Japan in case of halving global emissions in 2050 (Equal Intensity improvement Rate) 2050 2030 From 1990 From 2000 From 1990 From 2000 Case1 （2.2℃） 92.0% 92.4% 79.4% 78.3% Case2 （2.3℃） 91.9% 92.3% 71.2% 69.6% Case3 （2.2℃） 90.8% 91.3% 77.1% 75.9% Case4 （2.4℃） 90.8% 91.3% 69.7% 68.1% Case5 （2.3℃） 90.0% 90.5% 75.0% 73.7% Case6 （2.6℃） 90.0% 90.5% 65.6% 63.8% Required emission reduction for Japan in case of halving global emissions in 2050 (C&C 2100) 2050 2030 From 1990 From 2000 From 1990 From 2000 Case1 （2.2℃） 78.2% 79.3% 63.2% 65.1% Case2 （2.3℃） 78.0% 79.1% 48.6% 51.2% Case3 （2.2℃） 75.0% 76.3% 59.2% 61.3% Case4 （2.4℃） 75.1% 76.3% 46.0% 48.8% Case5 （2.3℃） 72.8% 74.2% 55.5% 57.7% Case6 （2.6℃） 72.8% 74.2% 38.8% 41.9% Intensity improvement rate (per year) period 2010-2050 Case1 （2.2℃）
Case2 （2.3℃）
Case3 （2.2℃）
Case4 （2.4℃）
Case5 （2.3℃）
Case6 （2.6℃）
2050年世界半減の時の日本の排出削減必要量
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It is safer to prepare the situation where
Japan should reduce emissions by at least 60％ to about 90％ in 2050 (from ‘90 level)
Taking uncertainty also into account.
As they are related to emission reduction path
and emission stabilization levels
International politics, international negotiation,
international institutions do matter, too.
Target-setting = to what extent we can accept
the impact of climate change. How can we scientifically introduce value judgments into target-setting process?
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Early peak-out
is required for low stabilization
the extent to which emission reduction can be achieved before 2050.
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As they are related to emission reduction path
and emission stabilization levels
International politics, international negotiation,
international institutions do matter, too.
Target-setting = to what extent we can accept
the impact of climate change. How can we scientifically introduce value judgments into target-setting process?
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