Khon Kaen Province: On the Way to Low Carbon Society Penwadee - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Khon Kaen Province: On the Way to Low Carbon Society Penwadee - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Khon Kaen Province: On the Way to Low Carbon Society Penwadee Cheewapongphan Sirintornthep Towprayoon Savitri Garivait AIM Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan 1 13-14 December 2013 Objective To develop low carbon scenarios for Khon Kaen province

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Penwadee Cheewapongphan Sirintornthep Towprayoon Savitri Garivait

AIM Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan 13-14 December 2013

Khon Kaen Province: On the Way to Low Carbon Society

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Objective

To develop low carbon scenarios for Khon Kaen province to support its vision of Low Carbon Society Model for the Greater Mekong Sub- region (GMS)

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Framework/Survey Data collection Estimate base year emission Projection to targets

CM development

Snap shot of target years Implementation Review Action plan

What to do?....

Scope and Scope and Methodology

(Stakeholder Workshop & Site Visit)

  • Energy
  • Waste
  • LULUCF

Yr 2005 Yr 2030, 2050

Study Boundary

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Khon Kaen Province

Khon Kaen Province (KK-province)

Location

Latitudes 15º21’5” N; Longitudes 101º44’45” E

Total Land 10,885.99 km2 (Forest land 2,074 km2) Climate SW monsoon with very dry zones Mean Annual Temperature: 21-38ºC Average Annual Precipitation

1,303 mm (131 days)

Population (2010): 1,767,601 inh. GPP (2009) 145,372 Million THB

Khon Kaen

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unit Khon Kaen Province Thailand Khon Kaen/ Thailand (%) Population PP

1,752,414 66,041,000 2.7%

GPP-GDP-Agriculture Million ฿

12,643 848,688 1.5%

GPP-GDP-Non Agriculture Million ฿

101,282 8,189,087 1.2%

Energy Consumption ktoe

955.78 64,886 1.5%

Total Area km2

10,886 513,115 2.1%

Forest Area km2

1,406.98 183,446 0.8%

Agriculture Area km2

7,562.94 288,545 2.6%

Overall Statistics of KK province – in 2007

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Methodology

Concept of GHG emissions estimation

Emission = Activity data × Emission factor

Waste generation Disposed waste Recycled waste CH4 generation CH4 emission Recovered CH4 CO2 emission Incinerated waste Share of waste management options Organic carbon content Decay parameters Organic carbon stock CH4 recovery rate Fossil carbon content

Macro-economy and Industry Module Labor Module Population and Household Number Module Time-use and Consumption Module Transport Module Commercial Building Module Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module

GHG emissions Labor demand Wage Number of workers Average working time Population Private consumption Number of household Output Passenger and freight transport demand Floor area of commercial buildings Energy demand Income

  • Export
  • Import ratio
  • Commuting OD
  • Labor participation ratio
  • Demographic composition
  • Average number of family
  • ccupants
  • Breakdown of

consumption

  • Floor area per
  • utput
  • Population distribution
  • Trip per parson
  • Transport distance
  • Modal share
  • Energy service demand generation unit
  • Energy efficiency
  • Fuel share
  • Emission factor
  • Government expenditure
  • Labor productivity

Exogenous variables and parameters Main endogenous variables Module Input Flow of endogenous variables

ExSS for Energy Consumption Activities ExSS for Waste Management Activities

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Data Source

Demographic & Economic

  • Number of KK-population

National Statistical Office (NSO)

  • Input-Output Table (I-O)

National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)

  • Gross KK-Provincial Product

National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)

Energy-Consumption Activities

  • Electricity Consumption

Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA)

  • Oil Consumption

Department of Energy Business

  • Transport Behavior

Office of Transport Policy (Khon Kaen master plan)

  • Building Floor Area

Land Development Department (LDD)

  • Number of Industry

Department of Industrial Work

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Data Collection

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Data Source

Waste Management Activities

  • Waste Generation Rate

Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10)

  • Waste Collection Efficiency

Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10)

  • Waste Composition

Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10)

  • Waste Recycle Rate

Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10)

LULUCF Activities

  • Number of Livestocks

Office of Agricultural Economic (OAE)

  • Manure Management System

IPCC GHG 2006

  • Crop Land

Office of Agricultural Economic (OAE)

  • Forest Land

Land Development Department (LDD)

  • Amount of Fertilization

Office of Agricultural Economic (OAE)

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Data Collection

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GHG Emission Projection - Population

a) Population Forecast

1,600,000 1,650,000 1,700,000 1,750,000 1,800,000 1,850,000 1,900,000 1,950,000 2,000,000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048

Population (pp)

NSO

1999-2012

Forecast 2013-2050 Interpolation (Time series )~+1 % annually NSO

1999-2012

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b) GPP Forecast

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GPP (Million Baht)

primary secondary tertiary

NESDB

2000-2010

2011-2050

Interpolation (based on Department of Public Works and Town and Country Planning) : primary ~+2.5 % annually, secondary & tertiary ~+5.0 % annually

NESDB NESDB

2000 2000-2010 2010

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GHG Emission Projection - GPP

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  • 1,000
  • 500
  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2,483 2,619 2,725 2,831 2,937 3,043 539 575 615 629 593 547 18 28 33 36 37 38

  • 669
  • 661
  • 673
  • 678
  • 683
  • 686

Emission and Removal of GHG (1,000 tons CO2-e)

ป ี (Year) การใช้ประโยชน์ที่ดิน (LULUCF) ขยะของเสีย (Waste) เกษตร (Agriculture) พลังงาน (Energy)

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(a) Situation of GHG Emissions and Removal in KK-province

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(a) Situation of GHG Emissions and Removal in KK-province

2,432

  • 2,000
  • 1,000
  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Emission and removal of GHG (1,000 tons CO2-e) พลังงาน (Energy) ขยะของเสีย (Waste) เกษตร (Agriculture) การใช้ประโยชน์ที่ดิน (LULUCF) ผลรวมสุทธิ CO2-e (Net CO2-e)

GHG Emissions GHG Removal

2,372 2,942 5,203 7,473

2.8 ton CO2-e per capita 2.8 ton CO2-e per capita 1.7 ton CO2-e per capita

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  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

ที่พักอาศัย (residential) ธุรกิจ (commercial) โรงงานอุตสาหกรรม (industrial) ขนส่ง (transportation) การจัดการขยะ (waste management) ปศุสัตว์ (enteric fermentation) การจัดการมูลสัตว์ (manure management) การเพาะปลูกข้าว (rice cultivation) การเผาชีวมวล (Biomass open burning) การใส่ปุ ๋ ยไนโตเจน (N Fertilizer) ไนโตรเจนจากชีวมวลการเกษตร (N from crop residues)

767 1,579 1,901 2,972 47 712 89 6 63 52 11 604 978 1,248 2,292 44 480 62 5 56 28 10

GHG emissions (1,000 tons CO2-e) Emission of GHG (1,000 tons CO2-e)

yr 2030 yr 2050

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(a) Situation of GHG Emissions and Removal in KK-province

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KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities

Strategy 1: Green City Strategy 2: Clean City Strategy 3: City of Energy Care Strategy 4: Living Sustainable City 4 strategies of KK related on LCC Development

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KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities

Strategy 1: Green City

  • To plant big tree in 0.5 km2 area
  • To breed tree in school by student
  • To launch green campaign
  • To give 9 trees to the newborn baby
  • To support the backyard garden in the house
  • To support the free tree to the community
  • Etc.

Activities in Khon Kaen province

Increasing Green Space

Target

GHG emission mitigation analysis

Assumption

  • Year 2015: Planting and continuous maintenance of big

trees in 50% of degraded forest land (~100 km2)

  • Year 2030: Planting & Conservation: Planting and

continuous maintenance of big trees in 100% of degraded forest land (~ 200 km2)

  • Year 2030-2050: Planting & Conservation:

Conservative all of forest land

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KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities

Strategy 2: Clean City

  • To support using e-mail instead of paper
  • To use paper-glass instead of plastic-glass for visitor
  • To use own-glass for the officer
  • To educate waste separation for the officer
  • To provide tank separation waste
  • To compete the amount of waste reduction in each

department in the office

  • To create the objects from the waste
  • Etc.

Activities in Khon Kaen province

To become a zero waste land

Target

GHG emission mitigation analysis

Assumption

  • Year 2015 (Launch of Recycling campaign): increasing

the recycling rate to 15% of generated waste

  • Year 2030 Recycling: increasing the recycling rate to

30% of generated waste

  • Year 2050 Recycling: Keeping the recycling rate at 30%
  • f generated waste

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KK-LCS Related Strategies & Activities

Strategy 3: City of Energy Care

  • To service employee by shuttle bus
  • To control air condition operating time and temp.
  • To provide the design of energy saving building
  • To support using renewable energy
  • To purchase frying oil
  • Etc.

Activities in Khon Kaen province

Decreasing the energy consumption

Target

GHG emission mitigation analysis

Assumption

Year 2015 (Launch of the campaign):

  • Modal shifting: 10% reduction of private car transportation in KK-municipality
  • Fuel Switching: 10% increase of bio-fuel in passenger and freight transportation

Year 2030:

  • Modal shifting: 50% reduction of private car transportation in KK-municipality
  • Fuel Switching: 50% increase of bio-fuel in passenger and freight transportation

Year 2050:

  • Modal shifting: Keeping the share of private car transportation as year 2030
  • Fuel Switching: Keeping the share of bio-fuel in passenger and freight transportation as year 2030

Car-pool pool

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3,040 8,170 5,870

  • 669
  • 645
  • 697
  • 2,000
  • 1,000
  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

GHG emissions/removal (1,000 tCO2eq) City of energy care Clean city Green City

2005 2050 BAU 2050 CM

Clean City City of Energy Care

28% decreased of GHG emission 10% increased of GHG removal

169%

(b) GHG emissions and mitigations based on KK – LCS Related Strategies & Activities

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95 Participants including local government officials, local community representatives, academics, industries, and local press-media

Stakeholder Workshop

To disseminate and share experience on low carbon scenarios for KK-province with stakeholders to consolidate the scenarios target and to outline possible action plans. Objective:

Deputy Mayor- KK KK KK- KK municipality to presents KK- municipality to municipality to municipality to low carbon activities Participants Representative of organizations to Representative of organizations to share low carbon activities

(18June 2013)

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@ school @ temple

Sites Visit

(19June 2013) To collect observations and feedback from stakeholders on existing KK-LCS related activities

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Findings from Stakeholders Workshop and Sites Findings from Stakeholders Workshop and Sites Visits

KK-Strength

  • Good co-operation of stakeholders to drive KK-province towards LCS
  • Strong political will of both local and central government to make KK a model of LCS for

the region

KK-Weakness

  • Lack of quantitative records/data required for the assessment of emission

reduction/mitigation potential of planned/already implemented KK – LCS related activities

KK-Next Step Forward

  • KK-Municipality is strongly interested in developing a monitoring system enabling to

assess the effectiveness of planned/existing KK – LCS related activities

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Regional Environmental Office 10 (REO 10), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Thailand Khon Kaen Municipality, Thailand