1 Structure and objectives Comparative analysis of RES and RUE heat - - PDF document

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Integrating Policies for Renewables and Energy Efficiency: Comparing Results from Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland

Lukas Kranzl (EEG, TU Wien)

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Jacky Pett, Pedro Guertler (ACE) Anselm Brakhage, Mario Ragwitz (Fraunhofer ISI) Michael Stadler (LBL & CET, Austria )

Introduction

• 40% of EU energy demand for heating and

DHW DHW

• Big potentials for saving energy and using

renewable energy carriers

• European policies still do not put the same

effort on renewables and energy efficiency for heating and DHW as for electricity and t t bi f l

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transport biofuels.

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Structure and objectives

• Comparative analysis of RES and RUE heat

policies in Germany Luxembourg and policies in Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland

– Current situation – Prospects – Policy options – Scenarios up to 2020

Conclusions regarding the design of RES and

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• Conclusions regarding the design of RES and

RUE heat policies in the building stock and improve building energy performance throughout Europe.

Methodology

• Distinction of building stock and related

heating and DHW systems heating and DHW systems

– Building categories – Construction periods

• Description of these building types

– Geometry data – Building thermal quality (U-values) – Distribution of heating and DHW systems

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• Invert simulation runs

– Implementation of building and heating system data – Definition of exogenous scenario parameters – Simulation runs and impact of various policy options

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Case studies

• Germany
• Luxembourg
• Northern Ireland

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Comparative results (1) – U-values

1,80 2,00 2,00 2,20 4 50 5,00 U-values ceiling 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 W/m²K U-values exterior walls 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 , 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 U-values windows 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 19 44 70 80 90 00 00

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before 19

• ca. 1919-194

ca 1945-19

• ca. 1971-19
• ca. 1981-19
• ca. 1991-20

after 20 before 191

• ca. 1919-194

ca 1945-197

• ca. 1971-198
• ca. 1981-199
• ca. 1991-200

after 200 Luxembourg Northern Ireland Germany before 191

• ca. 1919-194

ca 1945-197

• ca. 1971-198
• ca. 1981-199
• ca. 1991-200

after 200

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Comparative results (2) – Energy carrier mix for heating

district biomass 2% district electricity Other (includes wood pellets) Mains gas 4% LPG district heating 13% natural gas 47% electricity 5%

• il

27% coal 1% biomass 7%

• il

46% natural gas 46% LPG 1% 2% heating 1% electricity 4% Fuel oil Electricity 1% p ) 1% 4% Solid fuel (coal/anthr acite) 16% LPG bottled gas 1% Dual (mainly fuel

• il +

electricity) 11% www.invert.at 47%

Germany Luxembourg Northern Ireland

Fuel oil 66%

Germany – useful energy demand heating and DHW

95% 100% 05 = 100%) 80% 85% 90% 95% energy demand for heating (200 .

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70% 75% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 useful Ref w/o subsidies Ref DSM x2 DSM x3 DSM x4 DSM max

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Germany – RES-Heat development „Bonus-Scheme“

140.000 160.000 180.000 GWh / a] 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 final energy production [G

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2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2 District heating biomass District heating solar thermal District heating geothermal District heating biomass Pellets Wood chips Wood log Solar thermal Heat pumps

Luxembourg – useful energy demand for heating and DHW

95,0% 100,0% . 75,0% 80,0% 85,0% 90,0% nergy for heating (2006 = 100%)

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70,0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Useful e high price w/o subsidies high price BAU high price DSM low price w/o subsidies low price BAU low price DSM DSM plus

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Luxembourg – final energy demand for heating and DHW

3.500 4.000 GWh) 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 final energy demand heating (G

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2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 f heating oil natural gas LPG electricity district heating wood electricity

Northern Ireland – useful heating demand depending on subsidies for wall and ceiling insulation

11.500,00 12.000,00 . 9.000,00 9.500,00 10.000,00 10.500,00 11.000,00 ating demand (GWh)

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8.000,00 8.500,00 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 useful hea no subsidy 20% subsidy 40% subsidy 50% subsidy

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Northern Ireland – efficiency CO2 curve

20 25 e (kgCO2/€)

Pellet boiler subsidy

• nly:

Low I subsidy + var. P subsidy

Subsidies including insulation 10 15 20 O2 reduction / cumulative public expenditure

Mid I subsidy + var. P subsidy High I subsidy + var. P subsidy Higher I subsidy +

• var. P subsidy

100% I subsidy +

• var. P subsidy

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5 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% reduction in 2023 annual CO2 emissions relative to baseline scenario cumulative CO

Solar thermal subsidy Variable insulation subsidy and 50% solar thermal

Subsidies not including insulation

The implication of RES and RUE development

• RES heating systems in general show higher

investment costs and lower fuel costs

• For insulated buildings, energy demand decreases and

heating systems with lower investment costs and higher fuel costs become more attractive

• Under central European climate conditions, heat load of

buildings is expected to decrease in average by about 40-50% up to 2050 (Muller 2006).

• Thus, tendency to adopt electric heating systems

(Torakov 2007) partially offsets the positive impact of

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(Torakov 2007) partially offsets the positive impact of insulation measures.

• So it is crucial for specific targetted measures for low

energy buildings to promote RES-H and protect gains made through insulation

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Comparison of policy structure and culture

• Luxembourg:

–

currently low energy taxes for fossil fuels

–

Thus: high levels of subsidies for RES and RUE required

–

But: high administrative barriers for these subsidies

–

Current discussion focus on DSM and options of integrating RES promotion in the energy certificate

• Germany

–

Current RES-heat policies: moderate investment subsidies by the federal government

–

Discussions of transfering the positive experiences with

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promoting RES-E to the heat sector

–

Integration of RES and RUE is currently under discussion

• Northern Ireland

–

Policies are primarily household and not building related

–

Policies are mainly socially motivated

–

Energy savings obligations by energy suppliers

Conclusions

• In all investigated case studies, substantial uptake of

DSM in the building sector DSM in the building sector

• Trend from oil to gas will continue; high impact of

energy prices on this development

• Some part of these savings will be offset by rebound

effects, partially due to the trend to low-investment heating system.

• Question: how will RES-H market cope with declining

future heat loads?

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future heat loads?

• Challenge: creating medium and long-term stable

attractive conditions for both RES and RUE and combining related promotion schemes (e.g. by the means of the energy certificate for buildings).