Integrating Policies for Renewables and Energy Efficiency: Comparing Results from Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland Lukas Kranzl (EEG, TU Wien) Jacky Pett, Pedro Guertler (ACE) Anselm Brakhage, Mario Ragwitz (Fraunhofer ISI) Michael Stadler (LBL & CET, Austria ) www.invert.at Introduction 40% of EU energy demand for heating and • DHW DHW Big potentials for saving energy and using • renewable energy carriers European policies still do not put the same • effort on renewables and energy efficiency for heating and DHW as for electricity and transport biofuels. t t bi f l www.invert.at 1
Structure and objectives Comparative analysis of RES and RUE heat • policies in Germany Luxembourg and policies in Germany, Luxembourg and Northern Ireland – Current situation – Prospects – Policy options – Scenarios up to 2020 Conclusions regarding the design of RES and Conclusions regarding the design of RES and • RUE heat policies in the building stock and improve building energy performance throughout Europe. www.invert.at Methodology Distinction of building stock and related • heating and DHW systems heating and DHW systems – Building categories – Construction periods Description of these building types • – Geometry data – Building thermal quality (U-values) – Distribution of heating and DHW systems Invert simulation runs • – Implementation of building and heating system data – Definition of exogenous scenario parameters – Simulation runs and impact of various policy options www.invert.at 2
Case studies Germany • Luxembourg • Northern Ireland • www.invert.at Comparative results (1) – U-values 2,00 2,20 5,00 1,80 2,00 , 4,50 4 50 U-values ceiling U-values exterior walls U-values windows 1,60 1,80 4,00 1,40 1,60 3,50 1,40 1,20 3,00 W/m²K 1,20 1,00 2,50 1,00 0,80 2,00 0,80 0,60 1,50 0,60 0,40 1,00 0,40 0,20 0,50 0,20 0,00 0,00 0,00 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 19 44 70 80 90 00 00 ca. 1919-194 before 191 ca. 1919-194 ca 1945-197 ca. 1971-198 ca. 1981-199 ca. 1991-200 after 200 before 191 ca. 1919-194 ca 1945-197 ca. 1971-198 ca. 1981-199 ca. 1991-200 after 200 before 19 ca 1945-19 ca. 1971-19 ca. 1981-19 ca. 1991-20 after 20 Luxembourg Northern Ireland Germany www.invert.at 3
Comparative results (2) – Energy carrier mix for heating Other (includes wood Mains gas biomass district p pellets) ) electricity electricity district district 4% 4% LPG LPG 2% 2% biomass heating 1% 4% heating Dual bottled gas coal 7% 1% Electricity LPG 13% (mainly fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% oil + electricity) Solid fuel 11% (coal/anthr oil acite) oil 27% 16% 46% natural gas 46% natural electricity gas 5% 47% 47% Fuel oil Fuel oil 66% Germany Luxembourg Northern Ireland www.invert.at Germany – useful energy demand heating and DHW 05 = 100%) 100% 95% 95% energy demand for heating (200 90% . 85% 80% useful 75% 70% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ref w/o subsidies Ref DSM x2 DSM x3 DSM x4 DSM max www.invert.at 4
Germany – RES-Heat development „Bonus-Scheme“ 180.000 GWh / a] 160.000 140.000 final energy production [G 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 District heating biomass District heating solar thermal District heating geothermal District heating biomass Pellets Wood chips Wood log Solar thermal Heat pumps www.invert.at Luxembourg – useful energy demand for heating and DHW . 100,0% 95,0% nergy for heating (2006 = 100%) 90,0% 85,0% 80,0% 75,0% Useful e 70,0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 high price w/o subsidies high price BAU high price DSM low price w/o subsidies low price BAU low price DSM DSM plus www.invert.at 5
Luxembourg – final energy demand for heating and DHW GWh) 4.000 3.500 final energy demand heating (G 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 f 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 heating oil natural gas LPG electricity district heating wood electricity www.invert.at Northern Ireland – useful heating demand depending on subsidies for wall and ceiling insulation 12.000,00 . 11.500,00 ating demand (GWh) 11.000,00 10.500,00 10.000,00 9.500,00 9.000,00 useful hea 8.500,00 8.000,00 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 no subsidy 20% subsidy 40% subsidy 50% subsidy www.invert.at 6
Northern Ireland – efficiency CO2 curve 25 Pellet boiler subsidy only: e (kgCO 2 /€) Subsidies including insulation Low I subsidy + var. 20 20 P subsidy O 2 reduction / cumulative public expenditure Mid I subsidy + var. P subsidy 15 High I subsidy + var. P subsidy Higher I subsidy + var. P subsidy 10 100% I subsidy + var. P subsidy cumulative CO Solar thermal 5 subsidy Subsidies not including insulation Variable insulation subsidy and 50% solar thermal 0 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% reduction in 2023 annual CO 2 emissions relative to baseline scenario www.invert.at The implication of RES and RUE development RES heating systems in general show higher • investment costs and lower fuel costs For insulated buildings, energy demand decreases and • heating systems with lower investment costs and higher fuel costs become more attractive Under central European climate conditions, heat load of • buildings is expected to decrease in average by about 40-50% up to 2050 (Muller 2006). Thus, tendency to adopt electric heating systems • (Torakov 2007) partially offsets the positive impact of (Torakov 2007) partially offsets the positive impact of insulation measures. So it is crucial for specific targetted measures for low • energy buildings to promote RES-H and protect gains made through insulation www.invert.at 7
Comparison of policy structure and culture Luxembourg: • currently low energy taxes for fossil fuels – Thus: high levels of subsidies for RES and RUE required – But: high administrative barriers for these subsidies – Current discussion focus on DSM and options of – integrating RES promotion in the energy certificate Germany • Current RES-heat policies: moderate investment – subsidies by the federal government Discussions of transfering the positive experiences with – promoting RES-E to the heat sector Integration of RES and RUE is currently under discussion – Northern Ireland • Policies are primarily household and not building related – Policies are mainly socially motivated – Energy savings obligations by energy suppliers – www.invert.at Conclusions In all investigated case studies, substantial uptake of • DSM in the building sector DSM in the building sector Trend from oil to gas will continue; high impact of • energy prices on this development Some part of these savings will be offset by rebound • effects, partially due to the trend to low-investment heating system. Question: how will RES-H market cope with declining • future heat loads? future heat loads? Challenge: creating medium and long-term stable • attractive conditions for both RES and RUE and combining related promotion schemes (e.g. by the means of the energy certificate for buildings). www.invert.at 8
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