Workbook for estimating HIV prevalence in low level or concentrated - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Workbook Method Workbook for estimating HIV prevalence in low level or concentrated epidemics Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS World Health Organization

Overview of talk Overview of talk • Purpose of Workbook • Components of Workbook • Required elements • Strengths of Workbook • Limitations of Workbook • Output 2009 en 2

Purpose of Workbook Purpose of Workbook • Estimate National HIV prevalence – Concentrated and Low-level Epidemics • High risk populations • Populations at lower risk – Partners of IDUs, FSW, etc – General population • Develop Epidemic Curve – Logistic curve – Double logistic curve • Output for Spectrum 2009 en 3

Overview of talk Overview of talk • Purpose of Workbook • Components of Workbook • Required elements • Strengths of Workbook • Limitations of Workbook • Output 2009 en 4

Components of Workbook Components of Workbook • Point Prevalence • Epidemic Curve Estimation • Output for Spectrum 2009 en 5

SetUp Worksheet Worksheet SetUp 2009 en 6

SetUp Worksheet Worksheet SetUp 2009 en 7

Prevalence Worksheet – – Regional Regional Prevalence Worksheet 2009 en 8

Prevalence Worksheet – – National National Prevalence Worksheet 2009 en 9

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet 2009 en 10

Projection Model Selection Projection Model Selection 2009 en 11

Overview of talk Overview of talk • Purpose of Workbook • Components of Workbook • Required elements • Strengths of Workbook • Limitations of Workbook • Output 2009 en 12

Required Elements Required Elements • Structure of Epidemic – Geographic regions – Risk groups • Data Points – High risk groups/Lower risk groups • Size of high and low risk group – MSM, IDU, FSW, Clients of FSW • HIV prevalence within risk groups • Percent female • Epidemic Curve Estimation – Prevalence by year – Solver™ installed • Sum of Squares to be minimized to obtain best fit 2009 en 13

High Risk Groups High Risk Groups and potential sources of prevalence and potential sources of prevalence • IDUs • DHS Surveys • MSM • Capture-recapture studies • FSW • High Risk group • Clients of FSW Surveillance • Census studies 2009 en 14

Populations at lower risk Populations at lower risk and potential sources of prevalence and potential sources of prevalence • Sex Partners of IDUs • Published estimates • Sex Partners of • Calculated with MSM assumptions • FSW • DHS • Sex Partners of • Census surveys Clients of FSW • STI? 2009 en 15

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Populations at Higher Risk (PHR) Populations at Higher Risk (PHR) 2009 en 16

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Populations at lower risk — — Method A Method A Populations at lower risk 2009 en 17

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Populations at lower risk — — Method B Method B Populations at lower risk 2009 en 18

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet 2009 en 19

Overview of talk Overview of talk • Purpose of Workbook • Components of Workbook • Required elements • Strengths of Workbook • Limitations of Workbook • Output 2009 en 20

Strengths of Workbook Strengths of Workbook • Conceptually easy to use – Set up sheet – Regional sheets – Consistency checks – Prevalence estimates • Population sizes • HIV prevalence – Solver installed by Excel • Single or Double Logistic Curve • Alternate methods for Populations at Lower Risk – Population sizes – ANC alternative 2009 en 21

Consistency Checks Consistency Checks 2009 en 22

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Alternate Methods Alternate Methods 2009 en 23

Overview of talk Overview of talk • Purpose of Workbook • Components of Workbook • Required elements • Strengths of Workbook • Limitations of Workbook • Output 2009 en 24

Limitations of Workbook Limitations of Workbook • Determining Population Sizes • Lack of data – Population sizes – HIV prevalence within populations • Epidemic Curves require historical data – At least 3 years for simple logistic • For rising or stabilizing prevalence – More than 5 for double logistic • For declining prevalence 2009 en 25

Overview of talk Overview of talk • Purpose of Workbook • Components of Workbook • Required elements • Strengths of Workbook • Limitations of Workbook • Output 2009 en 26

Output Output • Point Prevalence value for single year • Epidemic Curve: Prevalence over time • Output for Spectrum 2009 en 27

National Summary Results National Summary Results 2009 en 28

Quality Scores Quality Scores 2009 en 29

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet 2009 en 30

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet 2009 en 31

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet 2009 en 32

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet 2009 en 33

Output for Spectrum Output for Spectrum 2009 en 34