Workbook for estimating HIV prevalence in low level or concentrated - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Workbook for estimating HIV prevalence in low level or concentrated - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 14, 2023 224 likes •571 views

Workbook Method Workbook for estimating HIV prevalence in low level or concentrated epidemics Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS World Health Organization Overview of talk Overview of talk Purpose of Workbook Components of

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SLIDE 1

Workbook Workbook Method

for estimating HIV prevalence in low level or concentrated epidemics

Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS World Health Organization

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SLIDE 2

2009 en 2

Overview of talk Overview of talk

  • Purpose of Workbook
  • Components of Workbook
  • Required elements
  • Strengths of Workbook
  • Limitations of Workbook
  • Output
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SLIDE 3

2009 en 3

  • Estimate National HIV prevalence

– Concentrated and Low-level Epidemics

  • High risk populations
  • Populations at lower risk

– Partners of IDUs, FSW, etc – General population

  • Develop Epidemic Curve

– Logistic curve – Double logistic curve

  • Output for Spectrum

Purpose of Workbook Purpose of Workbook

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SLIDE 4

2009 en 4

Overview of talk Overview of talk

  • Purpose of Workbook
  • Components of Workbook
  • Required elements
  • Strengths of Workbook
  • Limitations of Workbook
  • Output
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SLIDE 5

2009 en 5

  • Point Prevalence
  • Epidemic Curve Estimation
  • Output for Spectrum

Components of Workbook Components of Workbook

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SLIDE 6

2009 en 6

SetUp SetUp Worksheet Worksheet

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SLIDE 7

2009 en 7

SetUp SetUp Worksheet Worksheet

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SLIDE 8

2009 en 8

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet – – Regional Regional

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SLIDE 9

2009 en 9

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet – – National National

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SLIDE 10

2009 en 10

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet

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SLIDE 11

2009 en 11

Projection Model Selection Projection Model Selection

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SLIDE 12

2009 en 12

Overview of talk Overview of talk

  • Purpose of Workbook
  • Components of Workbook
  • Required elements
  • Strengths of Workbook
  • Limitations of Workbook
  • Output
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SLIDE 13

2009 en 13

  • Structure of Epidemic

– Geographic regions – Risk groups

  • Data Points

– High risk groups/Lower risk groups

  • Size of high and low risk group

– MSM, IDU, FSW, Clients of FSW

  • HIV prevalence within risk groups
  • Percent female
  • Epidemic Curve Estimation

– Prevalence by year – Solver™ installed

  • Sum of Squares to be minimized to obtain best fit

Required Elements Required Elements

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SLIDE 14

2009 en 14

  • IDUs
  • MSM
  • FSW
  • Clients of FSW
  • DHS Surveys
  • Capture-recapture

studies

  • High Risk group

Surveillance

  • Census studies

High Risk Groups High Risk Groups and potential sources of prevalence and potential sources of prevalence

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SLIDE 15

2009 en 15

  • Sex Partners of IDUs
  • Sex Partners of

MSM

  • FSW
  • Sex Partners of

Clients of FSW

  • Published estimates
  • Calculated with

assumptions

  • DHS
  • Census surveys
  • STI?

Populations at lower risk Populations at lower risk and potential sources of prevalence and potential sources of prevalence

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SLIDE 16

2009 en 16

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Populations at Higher Risk (PHR) Populations at Higher Risk (PHR)

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SLIDE 17

2009 en 17

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Populations at lower risk Populations at lower risk — — Method A Method A

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SLIDE 18

2009 en 18

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Populations at lower risk Populations at lower risk — — Method B Method B

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SLIDE 19

2009 en 19

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet

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SLIDE 20

2009 en 20

Overview of talk Overview of talk

  • Purpose of Workbook
  • Components of Workbook
  • Required elements
  • Strengths of Workbook
  • Limitations of Workbook
  • Output
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SLIDE 21

2009 en 21

  • Conceptually easy to use

– Set up sheet – Regional sheets – Consistency checks – Prevalence estimates

  • Population sizes
  • HIV prevalence

– Solver installed by Excel

  • Single or Double Logistic Curve
  • Alternate methods for Populations at Lower Risk

– Population sizes – ANC alternative

Strengths of Workbook Strengths of Workbook

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SLIDE 22

2009 en 22

Consistency Checks Consistency Checks

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SLIDE 23

2009 en 23

Prevalence Worksheet Prevalence Worksheet Alternate Methods Alternate Methods

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SLIDE 24

2009 en 24

Overview of talk Overview of talk

  • Purpose of Workbook
  • Components of Workbook
  • Required elements
  • Strengths of Workbook
  • Limitations of Workbook
  • Output
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SLIDE 25

2009 en 25

  • Determining Population Sizes
  • Lack of data

– Population sizes – HIV prevalence within populations

  • Epidemic Curves require historical data

– At least 3 years for simple logistic

  • For rising or stabilizing prevalence

– More than 5 for double logistic

  • For declining prevalence

Limitations of Workbook Limitations of Workbook

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SLIDE 26

2009 en 26

Overview of talk Overview of talk

  • Purpose of Workbook
  • Components of Workbook
  • Required elements
  • Strengths of Workbook
  • Limitations of Workbook
  • Output
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SLIDE 27

2009 en 27

  • Point Prevalence value for

single year

  • Epidemic Curve: Prevalence
  • ver time
  • Output for Spectrum

Output Output

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SLIDE 28

2009 en 28

National Summary Results National Summary Results

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SLIDE 29

2009 en 29

Quality Scores Quality Scores

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SLIDE 30

2009 en 30

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet

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SLIDE 31

2009 en 31

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet

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SLIDE 32

2009 en 32

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet

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SLIDE 33

2009 en 33

Epidemic Curve Worksheet Epidemic Curve Worksheet

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SLIDE 34

2009 en 34

Output for Spectrum Output for Spectrum