The Status of Aquaculture in Myanmar: A review of existing data - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Status of Aquaculture in Myanmar: A review of existing data

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Ben Belton (MSU), Aung Hein, Kyan Htoo, L. Seng Kham (CESD) Ulrike Nischan (IFPRI), Thomas Reardon & Duncan Boughton (MSU)

This study is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The study was also supported by financial assistance from the Livelihoods and Food Security Trust Fund (LIFT). The contents are the responsibility of Michigan State University (MSU) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID, the United States Government, or LIFT and its donors

Outline

• Why focus on aquaculture?
• Conventional Wisdom

(literature review)

• Fish Consumption and Price Data

(IHLCA 2010 and CSO)

• Production and Trade

(CSO, DOF, FAO)

• Spatial Analysis of Pond Area

(Google Earth Pro)

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Why focus on aquaculture?

• Fish is crucial to food and nutrition security in many of the world’s

least developed countries – often the major source of micronutrients

• Demand for fish increasing in line with rising incomes and

urbanization, shift from staples to higher value foods

• Global capture fisheries output growth stagnant
• Aquaculture is fastest growing food sector globally, providing half the

world’s food fish, set to grow 35% by 2022 to 85 million t (OECD/FAO, 2013)

• Fish farming is a high value agricultural activity

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61 146 314 460 473 1084 1698 2185 2147 2502 3310 3461 6011

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Gross margin per hectare (USD) Per hectare returns from paddy, horticulture and aquaculture in Bangladesh (Source: Derived from IFPRI, 2013; 2015; Jahan, 2016)

Productive, high value activity

The conventional wisdom on Myanmar’s aquaculture

• Large-scale farm dominated
• No small-scale producers
• Impossible to construct ponds on paddy land
• Export oriented
• Low productivity and technical efficiency
• Limited employment generation

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Fish Consumption

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Share of national food expenditure by food group (%) (Source: Authors’ calculations from IHLCA 2010 dataset)

Househ Househol

• ld Food

Food Expendi Expenditu ture Budget e Budget Shares hares

Fish’s contribution to consumption of animal source foods

Myanmar estimated average annual consumption of animal source foods per capita, by location (Source: authors’ calculations from IHLCA 2010 dataset)

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31% 40% 40% 50% 56% 57% 56% 52% 44% 45% 35% 34% 30% 29% 16% 14% 13% 13% 9% 11% 12% 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10 20 30 40 50 East Central North * National West South Lower Estimated average annual consumption per capita (kg) Fish Meat Eggs Milk

Rural and Urban Fish Consumption

Average consumption of fish by source and location (Source: Author’s calculations from IHLCA dataset 2010)

Average fish consumption (kg/capita/year) Aquaculture Dried/ processed Fresh-water capture Marine capture All fish National 3.9 6.4 5.1 3.5 18.9 Rural 3.5 6.5 5.5 3.3 18.7 Urban 5.0 6.3 4.0 4.1 19.4 Urban – Rural Difference (%) 41

• 2
• 27

25 3

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Fish consumption by economic status

Average fish consumption (kg/capita/year) Aquaculture Dried/ processed Fresh- water capture Marine capture All fish Quintile 1 1.6 4.2 4.3 3.0 13.0 Quintile 2 3.2 5.8 4.6 3.0 16.6 Quintile 3 4.1 6.4 4.8 3.1 18.4 Quintile 4 4.9 7.3 5.3 3.8 21.2 Quintile 5 5.5 8.3 6.3 4.4 24.5 Q5-Q1 Difference (%) 253 98 47 45 88 Consumption increase per quintile (%) 34.4 17.3 9.5 10.1 16.2 Average consumption of fish by source and expenditure quintile (Source: Author’s calculations from IHLCA dataset 2010)

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3 10 21 22 24 25 32 12 20 27 31 23 42 29 63 39 18 12 9 5 5 22 31 34 35 44 29 33 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West South * National Lower Central East North Aquaculture Freshwater capture Marine capture Dried/processed fish products

Fish Consumption Geography

Share of fish consumed by source and region (Authors’ Calculations from ILHCA- 2010)

Historical Price Trends

Real fish prices, May 2008-Jan 2015 (Source: CSO, various years) 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000

Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14

Price (Kyat/Viss at constant 2008 prices)

Nga Yan (Freshwater capture) Nga Talauk (Marine capture) Nga Myit Chin (Aquaculture)

• 0.5%

+ 2.9% + 5.2%

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Fish Production and Trade

Reported aquaculture production

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Production ('000 t) Freshwater prawn Other freshwater fish Pangasius Silver barb Common carp Mrigal Chinese major carp Tilapia Catla Rohu Marine fish

Myanmar aquaculture production by species, 1990-2013 (Source: FAO, 2015)

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Freshwater Aquaculture Exports

Myanmar Inland Aquaculture Exports by Volume and Share of Total Production (Source: derived from DOF, 2014)

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0.01 10.2 8.7 14.3 14 12.9 14 13.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 Exports (% of total production) Exports (t) Volume (t) % of total production

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Aquaculture fish exports ('000 t)

Middle East South Asia Southeast Asia Europe Others Volume of freshwater aquaculture exports by importing region, 2004-2012 (Source: CSO, 2010; DOF, 2012)

Exports of farmed fish, by importing region

Estimation of 2010 fish supply based on consumption and trade data

Source Apparent production (t) Officially reported production (t) Difference (%) Marine capture 923,150 2,060,780 123 Freshwater capture 524,341 1,002,430 91 Aquaculture 324,322 858,760 164 Total 1,771,813 3,921,970 121

Estimate of Myanmar’s total fish supply in 2010, based on apparent consumption and exports (Source: Derived from DOF, 2012; 2014, IHLCA 2010

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Spatial Analysis

Reported fish pond area

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pond area ('000 ha) Pond area ('000 acres) Others Bago Yangon Ayeyarwaddy

Myanmar inland fishpond area (Source: DOF, 2014)

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Estimation of pond area and growth rates using satellite imagery

Estimated spatial change in selected pond clusters (Source: Authors’ calculations from Google Earth Pro) Item Pond area (acres) Number of ponds Hlegu Cluster ( 2004 678 128 2009 1553 173 2014 1721 266 Change '04-‘14 (%) 154 108 “Nyaungdon Island” Cluster 2003 9698 994 2010 27663 1509 2014 34192 1736 Change '03-‘14 (%) 253 75 Latkyargyi Cluster 2003 2240 441 2014 3111 509 Change '03-‘14 (%) 39 15

Spatial distribution

• f fish ponds

in Lower Myanmar

(Source: Authors’, derived from Google Earth satellite images)

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Gap between reported and GIS estimated pond area

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Region/State Pond area (Ha) Official Pond area (Ha) Google Earth Difference (%) Ayeyarwady 45,705 56,721 24 Yangon 24,236 37,503 55 Bago 10,532 9,468

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Sub-total 80,868 103,978 29

Comparison of officially reported and estimated pond area (Source: Authors' own calculations from DOF, 2014; Google Earth Pro)

Conclusions

• Triangulation
• f

multiple data sources paints a picture

• f

aquaculture that is much more complex than suggested by the conventional wisdom

• Fish is by far the most important animal source food consumed in

Myanmar, and crucial source of micronutrients in the diet

• Aquaculture’s contribution to fish consumption growing fast, and is

especially important in urban areas and Upper Myanmar

• The real price of aquaculture fish is falling over time
• The growth of aquaculture has been driven mainly by the domestic

market, not by exports

• Total fish production may be significantly lower than officially

reported, but pond area has expanded rapidly over the last decade

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