The Role of Coal in the West Western Interstate Energy Board - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Western Interstate Energy Board

Benjamin Lim and Max Vilgalys

The Role of Coal in the West

1

§ Base load: The minimum amount of electric power delivered or required over a given period of time at a steady rate. § Base load capacity: The generating equipment normally operated to serve loads on an around-the-clock basis. § Base load plant: A plant […] which is normally operated to take all

• r part of the minimum load of a system, and which consequently

produces electricity at an essentially constant rate and runs continuously.

EIA Baseload Definitions

2

§ Base load plant: A plant […]

which is normally operated to take all

• r part of the minimum load of a

system, and which consequently produces electricity at an essentially constant rate and runs continuously.

For the Purposes of the Presentation

3

§ Coal and nuclear resources are designed for low cost O&M and continuous operation § Baseload resources have low forced and maintenance outage hours § Low exposure to fuel supply chain issues § A portion of a resource fleet that provides reliability services is necessary § Having more baseload generation makes system planning easier, but does not necessarily result in a more reliable or lower- cost portfolio

Baseload Generation is not a requirement

4

§ Continuous Emissions Monitoring Data § EPA collects data from generators § Includes hourly data for Heat Input, Generated Load, Emissions, etc. § 96 Coal Units, 544 NG Units § 13,315,200 rows of data for Coal

96 units x 365 days x 24 hours a day x 16 years

§ Compiled using Python and parsed with SQL

What is the CEM Database?

5

Emissions in CO2 equivalents

0.00E+00 1.00E+07 2.00E+07 3.00E+07 4.00E+07 5.00E+07 6.00E+07 Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG Coal NG AZ AZ CA CA CO CO ID ID MT MT NM NM NV NV OR OR TX TX UT UT WA WA WY WY

Tons of CO2e Fuel Type for Each State in Western Interconnection

GHG Emission (CO2e) by Fuel Type in States of West 2016

6

How It Breaks Up in the West

AZ 19% CO 18% MT 9% NM 11% NV 1% OR 1% UT 14% WA 3% WY 24%

COAL HEAT INPUT DISTRIBUTION IN THE WEST

AZ 19% CA 42% CO 7% ID 2% MT 0% NM 6% NV 14% OR 8% TX 2% 0% 0% 0%

NATURAL GAS HEAT INPUT DISTRIBUTION IN THE WEST

7

Heat Input and Generation at Bridger Coal Plant in 2016

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Heat Input (mmBtu) Month

Total Heat Input (mmBtu) at Bridger Coal Plant

Heat Input BW71 (mmBtu) Heat Input BW72 (mmBtu) Heat Input BW73 (mmBtu) Heat Input BW74 (mmBtu) 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Generation (MWh) Month

Total Generation (MWh) at Bridger Coal Plant

Generated Load BW71 (MWh) Generated Load BW72 (MWh) Generated Load BW73 (MWh) Generated Load BW74 (MWh)

8

Estimated Capacity Factors for EGU’s at Bridger in 2016 Based on Generation

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Capacity Factor Month

Capacity Factor of Unit BW71

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Capacity Factor Month

Capacity Factor of Unit BW72

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Capacity Factor Month

Capacity Factor of Unit BW73

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Capacity Factor Month

Capacity Factor of Unit BW74

9

Plant Name ORISPL CODE Unit # Max Generation (MW) Max Heat Input (mmBtu) Fuel Type Nameplate Capacity (MW) Jim Bridger 8066 BW71 581 7096.6 Coal 535 Jim Bridger 8066 BW72 585 7276.1 Coal 527 Jim Bridger 8066 BW73 570 7402.2 Coal 527 Jim Bridger 8066 BW74 580 6776.3 Coal 530

§ Underlying Assumptions:

§ !" ≈

$%&'() $*+, -./&, 0+123&3 $*+, -./&, 4'%3 566785679

§ Likewise for generated load § Maximum heat input or generated load over the 16 year period can exceed the nameplate capacity § Capacity factor values and trends derived from heat input or generated load are relatable

Estimation of Data Driven Capacity Factor

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Capacity Factor Month

Estimated CF of Bridger Unit 4 Based on Heat Input

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2

Capacity Factor Month

Estimated CF of Bridger Unit 4 Based on Generation

10

All coal fired power is solely used for baseload power and is consistently running at max capacity.

11

All coal fired power is solely sometimes used for baseload power and is consistently running at max a variable capacity factor.

12

The Changing Grid – 2001 vs 2016

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Generation (MWh) Operating Hour

Average Hourly Generation at Centralia Coal Plant - November 2016

Unit 1 Unit 2

13

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Generation (MWh) Operating Hour

Average Hourly Generation at Centralia Coal Plant - November 2001

Unit 1 Unit 2

Duck Curve Development

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Generation (MWh) Operating Hour

Centralia, WA Coal Plant, Novembers 2001-2016

2001 Generation 2005 Generation 2010 Generation 2014 Generation 2015 Generation 2016 Generation

14

Other Major Coal Plants

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Generation (MWh) Operating Hour

Average Hourly Generation at Intermountain Coal Plant

• December 2016

Unit 1 Unit 2 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Generation (MWh) Operating Hour

Average Hourly Generation at Colstrip Coal Plant - March 2016

Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4

15

§ Clustering – Unsupervised Learning Algorithm § Over 500,000 unit-days in the database

95 units x 365 days x 16 years

§ Logic/algorithm is a filter for bias and is the basis of fairness

Systematic Analysis

16

Sorting Unit-Days Into Generation Profiles

How many flexible generation days? How many baseload days? Actual Generation Profile of Generation

17

How It Works: Clustering

18

20 Distinct Generation Profiles

19

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2001

6% 9% 8% 2% 1% 0% 52% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 2% 1% 4% % 1% 1%

2001 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS

52% of the Unit-Days were baseload generation

20

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2006

6% 11% 7% 2% 1% 0% 52% 0% 2% 3% 2% 1% 4% 3% 1% 4% 1% 1%

2006 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS

Over 5 years, coal continued to operated largely as baseload

21

11% 14% 7% 3% 2% 0% 27% 1% 3% 5% 6% 1% 4% 8% 1% 4% 0% 1% 1%

2011 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2011

In the next 5 years, baseload generation nearly halved for coal

22

Generation Patterns of Western Coal Plants - 2016

In the last 15 years, coal unit operation has shifted dramatically

7% 21% 6% 6% 2% 0% 22% 1% 5% 5% 4% 1% 5% 5% 2% 3% 4% 1%

2016 DAILY GENERATION PATTERNS

23

§ Baseload operation days for coal decreased from 52% in 2001 to 22% in 2016 § Offline days for units increased from 9% in 2001 to 21% in 2016

Recap of Aggregate Results

24

§ We have a measure of aggregate changes in the fleet § We want to examine information about individual units

§ Are all units changing, or just a few? § When did most units shift from baseload operation? § What factors could have influenced this shift?

How Have Individual Units Changed?

25

How many units spend less than 10% of their days in baseload operation?

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Units Year

Number of Units Spending 0%-10% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016

0% - 10%

26

How many units spend less than 20% of their days in baseload operation?

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Units Year

Number of Units Spending 0%-20% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016

10%-20% 0% - 10%

27

Since 2011, the majority of coal units spent less than 30% of their days in baseload operation.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Units Year

Number of Units Spending 0%-30% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016

20%-30% 10%-20% 0% - 10%

28

In 2016, 73 out of 84 coal units spent less than 50% of days in baseload operation

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Units Years

Number of Units Spending 0%-50% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016

40%-50% 30%-40% 20%-30% 10%-20% 0% - 10%

29

In 2001, 53 units spent more than 50% of the time in baseload operation. In 2016, 11 units did.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Units Year

Number of Units Spending 0%-100% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016

90%-100% 80%-90% 70%-80% 60%-70% 50%-60% 40%-50% 30%-40% 20%-30% 10%-20% 0% - 10%

30

Jumping to the whole picture:

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Units Year

Number of Units Spending 0%-100% of their days in Baseload Operation, 2001-2016

90%-100% 80%-90% 70%-80% 60%-70% 50%-60% 40%-50% 30%-40% 20%-30% 10%-20% 0% - 10%

31

2016 2001

Generation and Percent Baseload Days

= 300 million MWh = 100% of the time like this: = 100% of the time like this:

32

Size is Total Generation (MWh) Saturation is Percent Baseload Days

A possible explanation: Natural Gas Prices

Source: eia.gov

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

# of Units Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet Year

Comparing Natural Gas Price and Baseload Operation Trends U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price Units spending < 30% of days in baseload generation

33

Changing Resources: NG Over Coal

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6

Fuel Burnt (quads)

Total Fuel Burnt in Baseload Operation from Coal and Natural Gas

Coal Combustion turbin e Dry bottom Tangentially-fired Combined cycle

34

Consumption of Coal decreased by 72% and NG increased by 145%

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2

200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6

Fuel Burnt (quads)

Fuel Burn Trends for Baseload Operation of Coal and Natural Gas

Coal Natural Gas

§ Increase in variable generation (wind and solar) § Aging, less efficient power plants § Flat electrical demand § Regional economic dispatch § Wear and tear cycling costs

Other Drivers for Operational Shift

35

§ Baseload operation has decreased from 52% of coal unit operating days in 2001 to 22% in 2016 in the Western U.S. § Individual coal units in the Western U.S. with baseload operation greater than or equal to 50% of days in the year decreased from 53 units in 2001 to 11 in 2016. § Since 2011, the majority of coal units have spent less than 30% of their days in baseload operation. § Offline operation increased from 9% of coal unit operating days in 2001 to 21% in 2016 § Baseload operation resource consumption of Coal decreased by 72% and NG increased by 145% from 2001 to 2016

In Summary

36

All coal fired power is solely sometimes used for baseload power and is consistently running at max a variable capacity factor.

37

§ Highlight trends in coal alongside hourly wind and solar generation § Compare spot prices for electricity to coal unit output § Focus on plants slated for retirement

§ Look at trends leading up to retirement for decommissioned plants/units

Next Steps

38