SY2016 Demographic Study Manheim Central SD Resident Student - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SY2016 Demographic Study

Manheim Central SD Resident Student Projections and Based on SY2016 Student Data

Work Accomplished by Davis Demographics for Manheim Central SD

Created customized data set for District Incorporated area development

projects/plans

Analyzed relevant area demographic data Developed 10-year student forecast

Mapping the District’s Student Data

The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed.

Each dot represents a student’s location

Planning Units or Study Areas

Helps the District track its open enrollment distribution.

Attendance Matrices

Found in report, page 21

SCHOOL

GRADE RANGE TOTAL RESIDENT STUDENTS DOE RUN ELEMENTARY HC BURGARD ELEMENTARY STIEGEL ELEMENTARY

DOE RUN ELEMENTARY

K‐4 391 378 10 3

HC BURGARD ELEMENTARY

K‐4 483 25 446 12

STIEGEL ELEMENTARY

K‐4 227 6 19 202

TOTAL ENROLLED RESIDENT K‐4

K‐4 1101 409 475 217

PREKINDERGARTEN

PK 25 2 23

OUT OF DISTRICT

K‐4 2 2

UNMATCHED

K‐4 1 1

TOTAL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT

SY2016 Student File = STUDENTS ENROLLMENT 2016‐2017.XLSX

PK‐4 1129 409 480 240

OPEN ENROLLMENT

(STUDENTS ATTENDING FROM OUTSIDE THE SITE ZONE)

PK‐4 77 31 31 15

PERCENTAGE OF SITE OPEN ENROLLMENT

PK‐4 7.58% 6.53% 6.91%

SITE CAPACITY

PK‐4 1375 500 500 375

SITE CAPACITY PERCENTAGE

PK‐4 82.1% 81.8% 96.0% 64.0%

Elementary School of Enrollment

(Where a student goes to school)

Elementary Zone of Residence

(What are a student lives)

Davis Demographics Projection Methodology

MCSD Birth Counts to Reported K-class

Found in report, page 12

Mobility Factors

• DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are

no new residential development over the past five years.

• DDP used 4 years of mapped student data (SY2013-16) and conducts annual grade

transition analysis using an average (instead of weighted method) – more conservative approach (3 years of change).

• This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures and apartment

migration

Found in report, page 14 SCHOOL G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Doe Run Elementary 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.07 1 1.02 1.12 0.99 1.01 0.78 HC Burgard Elementary 1 1.02 0.96 1.01 0.97 1 0.99 1.06 1 1.03 0.94 0.77 Stiegel Elementary 1.07 1.05 1 1.03 1.04 1.03 0.99 1.06 1.09 1.05 0.99 0.81

Student Yield Factors

*Student Generation Study was conducted by DDP. Data was based on the 2016 student data and county assessor data. Found in report, page 15 Units = 6010 Units = 1328 Units = 711 Units = 782 Units = 452 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 Students 977 Students 205 Students 133 Students 30 Students 43 SYF 0.163 SYF 0.154 SYF 0.187 SYF 0.038 SYF 0.095 Units = 6010 Units = 1328 Units = 711 Units = 782 Units = 452 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 Students 287 Students 55 Students 31 Students 11 Students 10 SYF 0.048 SYF 0.041 SYF 0.044 SYF 0.014 SYF 0.022 Units = 6010 Units = 1328 Units = 711 Units = 782 Units = 452 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 Students 614 Students 95 Students 64 Students 33 Students 16 SYF 0.102 SYF 0.072 SYF 0.090 SYF 0.042 SYF 0.035 SFD SFA MFA APT MH SFD SFA MFA APT MH SFD SFA MFA APT MH

Active or Planned Residential Development

Active or Planned Residential Builds (10/2016 – 10/2019)

Location Map is in next slide

As 12/14/2016

Active or Planned Residential Development

Found in report, pages 18-19

Projections for Each Study Area

Projections for Each Attendance Area

These are simply the summation of all of the individual Study Area projections that make up each attendance area.

District-wide 10-Year Projections – Residential Students

Impact from Mobility Impact from Development

Larger ES student counts will make up growth in MS and HS next 10 years

District-wide 10-Year Projected Enrollment

Total Enrollment of the District Green = Peak or Highest Count

Resident Sub Totals

PK-4

1,061 1,064 1,078 1,126 1,175.0 1,186.8 1,226.6 1,251.4 1,265.5 1,246.1 1,246.7 1,249.6 1,249.7 1,248.6

5-8

861 870 882 867 923.3 925.4 913.7 932.7 940.2 970.3 1,014.0 1,036.8 1,050.6 1,028.8

9-12

901 896 881 945 922.8 956.1 956.9 933.6 967.3 975.0 961.2 976.8 983.8 1,026.4

PK-12

2,823 2,830 2,841 2,938 3,021.1 3,068.3 3,097.2 3,117.7 3,173.0 3,191.4 3,221.9 3,263.2 3,284.1 3,303.8

Unmatched

PK-4

1 1 1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

5-8

1 2 2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4

9-12

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PK-12

2 3 3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

Out-of-District

PK-4

8 8 3 2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

5-8

10 5 4 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

9-12

13 12 8 10 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.9

PK-12

31 25 15 13 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6

Totals

PK-4

1,069 1,073 1,082 1,129 1,178.1 1,190.0 1,229.9 1,254.7 1,268.9 1,249.4 1,250.0 1,252.9 1,253.0 1,251.9

5-8

871 876 888 870 926.5 928.6 916.9 935.9 943.5 973.7 1,017.5 1,040.4 1,054.2 1,032.4

9-12

914 908 889 955 932.6 966.2 967.0 943.5 977.5 985.3 971.4 987.1 994.2 1,037.3

PK-12

2,854 2,857 2,859 2,954 3,037.2 3,084.8 3,113.8 3,134.1 3,189.9 3,208.4 3,238.9 3,280.5 3,301.5 3,321.5

Found in report, page 34

District Historic Enrollment and Ten-Year Projections

Found in report, page 26

Forecasted Change in Elementary Area 2016-2026

Found in report, page 37

Found in report, page 41

901 896 881 945 922.8 956.1 956.9 933.6 967.3 975 961.2 976.8 983.8 1026.4

800 850 900 950 1000 1050 SY2013 SY2014 SY2015 SY2016 SY2017 SY2018 SY2019 SY2020 SY2021 SY2022 SY2023 SY2024 SY2025 SY2026

Manheim Central HS Attendance Area Projected Resident Student

Net K-4 Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas

• f Manheim Central SD - 2016 to 2026

HC Burgard Doe Run

Net K-4 Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas

• f Manheim Central SD -

2016 to 2026

Stiegel

Net Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas

• f Manheim Central SD - 2016 to 2026

Manheim Central MS Manheim Central HS

Summary

The student population for the Manheim Central SD is expected to increase annually the next ten years. There are eight known active and planned housing projects in the district, adding an estimated 133 new housing units over the next three years. MCSD Elementary schools will have the biggest gain in SY2017 49 students. Middle school is expected to experience the highest growth of three district grade configurations 18.7% . High school student population will peak at 1026 counts in SY2026.

Questions?