SLIDE 7 Projected climate change in Northern Australia
continue?
infmuence from greenhouse gases to be strongly infmuenced by natural annual rainfall difgerences of up to 25% We can improve our confjdence in have more confjdence in models Pacifjc in the current climate. surface temperatures infmuence rainfall
3. Brown J.R., Moise A.F ., Colman R. and Zhang H. (2016), Will a warmer world mean a wetter or drier Australian monsoon? Journal of Climate, 29, 4577–4596, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0695.1. 4. Brown J.R., Moise A.F . and Colman R.A. (2017), Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian Monsoon Rainfall. , 44, 5683-5690, doi:10.1002/2017GL073217. 5. Cai, W. and co-authors (2014), Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming, Nature Climate Change, 4, 111-116, doi:10.1038/nclimate2100; Cai, W. and co-authors (2015), Increased frequency of extreme La Nina events under greenhouse warming, , 5, 132-137, doi:10.1038/nclimate2492. 6. Power, S., F . Delage, C. Chung, G. Kociuba and K. Keay (2013), Robust twenty-fjrst century projections of El Nino and related precipitation variability, , 502, 541-545, doi:10.1038/nature12580.
Mean rainfall change is uncertain for both low (blue bar) and high (red bar) emissions
- scenarios. Increases in extremes, such as
maximum one-day rainfall, are much more confjdently projected for low and high emissions cases. The grey bars show the year-to-year variability.
Mike Rosel, Bureau of Meteorology
60 40 20
Relative change by 2080–99 in % of 1986–2005 Annual mean precipitation Maximum 1-day rainfall
climate afgect rainfall variability and extremes?
We have high confjdence that rainfall medium confjdence, to occur less
