Global warming 342 Wm 2 235 Wm 2 Reflected by Clouds, Aerosol and - - PDF document

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Global warming

235 Outgoing Longwave Radiation 235 Wm−2 Incoming Solar Radiation 342 Wm−2 Reflected Solar Radiation 107 Wm−2 Reflected by Clouds, Aerosol and Atmosphere 342 107 77 77 67 Absorbed by Atmosphere Emitted by Atmosphere 165 30 40 Atmospheric Window 324 Back Radiation 390 Surface Radiation 350 40 78 Latent Heat 24 168 Absorbed by Surface 78 Evapo- transpiration Greenhouse Gases 324 Absorbed by Surface Reflected by Surface 30 24 Thermals

Figure 1.2: The Earth’s annual and global mean energy balance. Of the incoming solar radiation, 49% (168 Wm−2) is absorbed by the surface. That heat is returned to the atmosphere as sensible heat, as evapotranspiration (latent heat) and as thermal infrared radiation. Most of this radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere, which in turn emits radiation both up and down. The radiation lost to space comes from cloud tops and atmospheric regions much colder than the

• surface. This causes a greenhouse effect. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997: Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget, Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 78, 197-208.

Most important greenhouse agents

Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane

Carbon dioxide

burning fossil fuel deforestation

"#$%&'( )*+(

),,+(!-'&$.(/0123'&(454(67%&8'9(

Table 1. Summary of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Net Generation in the United States, 1998 and 1999 1998 1999 p Change Percent Change Carbon Dioxide (thousand metric tons)a . . . . . . . Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,799,762 1,787,910

• 11,852
• 0.66

Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110,244 106,294

• 3,950
• 3.58

Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291,236 337,004 45,768 15.72 Other Fuels b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,596 13,596 U.S. Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,214,837 2,244,804 29,967 1.35 Generation (million kWh) Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,873,908 1,881,571 7,663 0.41 Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126,900 119,025

• 7,875
• 6.21

Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488,712 562,433 73,721 15.08 Other Fuels b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,747 21,749 2 Total Fossil-fueled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,511,267 2,584,779 73,512 2.93 Nonfossil-fueled c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,105,947 1,106,294 347 0.03 U.S. Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,617,214 3,691,073 73,509 2.04 Output Rate d (pounds CO2 per kWh) Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.117 2.095

• 0.022
• 1.04

Petroleum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.915 1.969 0.054 2.82 Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.314 1.321 0.007 0.53 Other Fuels b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.378 1.378 U.S. Average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.350 1.341

• 0.009
• 0.67

a One metric ton equals one short ton divided by 1.1023. To convert carbon dioxide to carbon units, divide by 44/12. b Other fuels include municipal solid waste, tires, and other fuels that emit anthropogenic CO2 when burned to generate

• electricity. Nonutility data for 1999 for these fuels are unavailable; 1998 data are used.

c Nonfossil includes nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and other fuels or energy sources with zero or net zero CO2 emissions. Although geothermal contributes a small amount of CO2 emissions, in this report it is included in nonfossil. d U.S. average output rate is based on generation from all energy sources. P = Preliminary data. = No change. Note: Data for 1999 are preliminary. Data for 1998 are final. Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-759, “Monthly Power Plant Report”; Form EIA-767, “Steam-Electric Plant Operation and Design Report”; Form EIA-860B, “Annual Electric Generator Report Nonutility”; and Form 900, “Monthly Nonutility Power Report.” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC Form 423, “Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants.”

Methane

Landfills, cows Termites ....

Perhaps 100 million ton of methane produced by (3?) tropical dams (in Brazil?), a sizable contribution to global warming. NEWS

Nature Published online: 28 November 2006; | doi:10.1038/444524a

Methane quashes green credentials of hydropower

Emissions from tropical dams can exceed fossil-fuel plants.

Ozone layer - Increase of UVB

CFC - ChloroFluoroCarbons (regulated since 1987) NOx - contributes also to greenhouse effect

Consequences

Increase in temperature sea surface temperature

• n land

(a) Annual temperature trends, 1901 to 2000 (b) Annual temperature trends, 1910 to 1945 (c) Annual temperature trends, 1946 to 1975 Trend (°C/decade) 0.2 −0.2 0.4 −0.4 0.6 −0.6 0.8 −0.8 1 −1 (d) Annual temperature trends, 1976 to 2000 Figure 2.9: (a) to (d) Annual surface temperature trends for the periods 1901 to 2000, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000, respectively (°C/decade), calculated from combined land-surface air and sea surface temperatures adapted from Jones et al. (2001). The red, blue and green circles indicate areas with positive trends, negative trends and little or no trend respectively. The size of each circle reflects the size of the trend that it represents. Trends were calculated from annually averaged gridded anomalies with the requirement that annual anomalies include a minimum of 10 months of data. For the period 1901 to 2000, trends were calculated only for those grid boxes containing annual anomalies in at least 66 of the 100 years. The minimum number of years required for the shorter time periods (1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000)

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 relative to 1961 to 1990 Global anomaly (°C)

UKMO SST (adapted from Jones et al., 2001) UKMO NMAT (adapted from Parker et al., 1995) CRU LSAT (Jones et al., 2001) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

CRU LSAT minus UKMO SST

Figure 2.6: Smoothed annual anomalies of global average sea surface temperature (°C) 1861 to 2000, relative to 1961 to 1990 (blue curve), night marine air temperature (green curve), and land-surface air temperature (red curve). The data are from UK Met Office and CRU analyses (adapted from Jones et al., 2001, and Parker et al., 1995). The smoothed curves were created using a 21-point binomial filter giving near-decadal averages. Also shown (inset) are the smoothed differences between the land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies.

Land Average Sea Night Sea difference sea-land Average temperature in Tallahassee November 1895 - 2004

(a)

Cold Less cold weather Previous climate New climate More hot weather Average Increase in mean Probability of occurrence Hot more cold weather More record hot weather

(b)

Cold More record cold weather Previous climate New climate More hot weather Average Increase in variance Probability of occurrence Hot More record hot weather Less change for cold weather

(c)

Cold Previous climate New climate Much more hot weather Average Increase in mean and variance Probability of occurrence Hot More record hot weather

Possible temperature scenarios

Consequences

Increase in temperature sea surface temperature

• n land

Increase in sea water level

Warming water expands: 0.5 mm Water level increases about 2.8 mm per year Fresh water influx: melting glaciers

Toboggan glacier 1909 2004 McCarthy glacier: 1909 and 2004

Trivia

1990s the hottest decade, 1998 and 2005 are hottest year on record (since 1861) 2002 ,2003, and 2004 are on rank 3, 4, and 5 10% loss of snow cover since 1960s. Sea level up by 10-20 cm during the 1900s. El Niño more frequent, persistent, and intense since 1970s (relative to past 100 years).

Consequences

Increase in temperature sea surface temperature

• n land

Increase in sea water level Increase in El Nino frequency Decrease in snow cover Changes in food production (change in world climate)

Predictions

more storms more hot summers higher sea levels more rain in some areas, but drier in others

sea level change will be a real threat for many town

• n the gulf

Well, .... we are in for the ride

“Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability…” – 1995 IPCC (2001 EPA web site) “In the light of new evidence . . . most of the

• bserved warming over the last 50 years is

likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.” – 2001 IPCC

Effect on biota

86F --> all females 93F --> all males

Janzen, F. J. 1994. Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America 91:7487–7490.

Effect on biota

demographic range expansion, contraction

1915–1939 1940–1969 1970–1997

Parmesan, C., N. et al. 1999. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399:579–583.

Effect on biota

demographic range expansion, contraction latitude altitude

9 plant species in Swiss Alps with detailed records: Observed upward shift 1–4 m per decade. Predicted upward shift needed to keep up with temperature 8–10 m per decade

Grabherr, G., M. Gottfried & H. Pauli. 1994. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369:448

Effect on biota

demographic range expansion, contraction latitude altitude Phenology (= timing of life history events)

Global warming and birds

Breeding date Pied flycatcher 13 days Tree swallow 5-9 days Great tit 11.9 days Mexican Jay 10.1 days Migration date 4 bird species 12 days 39 bird species 5.5 days America Robin 14 days

McCarty, J. P. Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate Change. The Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology 15 (2), 320-331.

Climate change policy

International policy National policy Personal policy

International policies

1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established 1989 Global Climate Coalition formed by 46 corporations 1990 first IPCC Assessment Report 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1996 Ministerial Declaration - official statement that climate change is a problem

International policies

1997 Kyoto Protocol: Would make emissions targets legally binding (if 55% of parties sign, representing at least 55% of emissions) 2001 The United States rejects Kyoto Protocol, US delcares that it will not ratify the Kyoto agreement. 2004 Russia agrees to sign the Kyoto agreement (55%

• f the parties signed up)

BBC news on Feb 16 2005: The Kyoto accord, which aims to curb the air pollution blamed for global warming, has come into force seven years after it was agreed. The accord requires countries to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Some 141 countries, accounting for 55% of greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified the treaty, which pledges to cut these emissions by 5.2% by 2012. But the world's top polluter - the US - has not signed up to the treaty. The US says the changes would be too costly to introduce and that the agreement is flawed. Large developing countries including India, China and Brazil are not required to meet specific targets for now.

US acceptance of the policy is still important Trading of Carbon shares National policies

2003 Climate Stewardship Act fails in senate (McCain, Lieberman) 2004 Climate Stewardship Act introduced in the house (Glichrest, Olver)

Searching the internet about this topic, I stumbled over several “institutes” with very slick web pages advertising scientific reasons why the global warming does not happen:

http://www.nationalcenter.org/Kyoto.html [very disturbing are their biased use of citations]

In the (old) news

Election Over, McCain Criticizes Bush on Climate Change

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: November 16, 2004

Wasting no time distancing himself from President Bush on an issue that has long divided them, Senator John McCain yesterday called the White House stance on climate change "terribly disappointing" and said inaction in the face of mounting scientific data was unjustified. Two weeks after the end of a campaign in which he stumped for Mr. Bush's re- election, Mr. McCain, Republican of Arizona, is convening a Senate hearing today on the human effect on climate and what to do about it. Particularly disturbing, he went on, is the rapid pace of warming. ... "The Inuit language for 10,000 years never had a word for robin," [McCain] said, "and now there are robins all over their villages."

Private policies

As an individual, you can affect the emissions

• f about 4,800 pounds of carbon equivalent, or

nearly 32% of the total emissions per person, by the choices you make in three areas of your

• life. These areas are the electricity we use in
• ur homes, the waste we produce, and

personal transportation. The other 68% of emissions are affected more by the types of industries in the U.S., the types of offices we use, how our food is grown, and other factors.

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/EmissionsIndividual.html