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10/29/18 Quantitative Literacy and Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming Global Warming Key Connections: Logic and critical thinking Jeff Bennett Data interpretation and visualization jeff@bigkidscience.com Mathematical

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SLIDE 1

10/29/18 1 Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming

www. www.globalwa warmingprimer.com Jeff Bennett jeff@bigkidscience.com

Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming

Key Connections:

  • Logic and critical thinking
  • Data interpretation and visualization
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Economic considerations
  • Probability/Risk Analysis
  • …

A tale of two planets…

470°C (880°F) 15°C (59°F)

A tale of two planets…

470°C (880°F) 15°C (59°F) Distance alone can’t explain it…

In fact: Venus absorbs less sunlight than Earth (because of its reflective clouds) so “should” be cooler!

The Greenhouse Effect

Net Result: Added Energy (Heat) in Lower Atmosphere

How do we know the greenhouse effect is real?

Test 1: Laboratory measurements (since 1859! Test 2: Compare predicted and actual planetary temperatures

Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be too cold for life!
slide-2
SLIDE 2

10/29/18 2

A tale of two planets…

470°C (880°F) 15°C (59°F)

So the greenhouse effect is a very good thing for life!

Enough carbon dioxide to make our planet livable.

Too much of a good thing!

~200,000 times as much carbon dioxide as Earth.

The Rising CO2 Concentration The Rising CO2 Concentration What about before 1958?

Ice core studies

Photo source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/

800,000 Years of CO2 800,000 Years of CO2

  • CO2 today: ~40% higher than in past 800,000 years
  • On track to: double pre-industrial value in 50 to 60 years…
  • triple that value by mid next century…

“Global Warming 1-2-3”

  • 1. FACT: Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes

Earth warmer than it would be otherwise.

slide-3
SLIDE 3

10/29/18 3

“Global Warming 1-2-3”

  • 1. FACT: Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes

Earth warmer than it would be otherwise.

  • 2. FACT: Use of fossil fuels (coal/oil/gas) is adding

carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

“Global Warming 1-2-3”

  • 1. FACT: Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes

Earth warmer than it would be otherwise.

  • 2. FACT: Use of fossil fuels (coal/oil/gas) is adding

carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

  • 3. CONCLUSION: We expect global warming to occur.

What we are now doing to the world … by adding greenhouse gases to the air at an unprecedented rate… is new in the experience of the Earth. It is mankind and his activities which are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways. — British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Nov. 8, 1989

(in a speech to the United Nations)

Confirmation: The Warming is Underway…

Global Average Temperature (Compared to 20th Century Average) Temperature Difference (°C) (°F)

Ocean Warming It’s not the Sun…

slide-4
SLIDE 4

10/29/18 4 800,000 Years of Climate Change

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Consequences of Global Warming

  • Regional climate change
Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)
  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)
  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

Credit: James Hansen, as reproduced in New York Times
  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

N.
  • N. Hemisphere Summer Temperatures
Credit: James Hansen, as reproduced in New York Times
  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

N.
  • N. Hemisphere Summer Temperatures
slide-5
SLIDE 5

10/29/18 5

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)
  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) The Colorado High Park wildfire. Credit: U.S. National Forest Service, from Wikimedia Commons
  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Hurricane Patricia (2015). Credit: Scott Kelly, NASA
  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather

Consequences of Global Warming

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)
  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather

Consequences of Global Warming

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)
  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather

Consequences of Global Warming

Energy drives storms and weather… … and global warming is adding 250 trillion joules/s (0.5 W/m2) to oceans/atmosphere

  • Equiv. to:
  • 4 Hiroshima bombs /s
  • 500,000 lightning bolts/s
  • 2 ongoing hurricanes
  • 3,000 cat. F5 tornadoes/day
Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)
  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather
  • Melting of Sea Ice

Consequences of Global Warming

Amplifies global warming! Arctic summer ice coverage

slide-6
SLIDE 6

10/29/18 6

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from Red = 1-meter rise; yellow = 6-meter rise
  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather
  • Melting of Sea Ice
  • Rising Sea Level

Consequences of Global Warming

Damage in New Jersey from the Hurricane Sandy storm surge (2012). Credit: W ikipedia/U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen Regions that will be below sea level

And if Greenland and Antarctica fully melted… à Sea level rise >70 meters (240 ft)

  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather
  • Melting of Sea Ice
  • Rising Sea Level
  • Ocean acidification

Consequences of Global Warming

Change in a coral reef in the Florida Keys attributed to ocean acidification. Photos from www.climateinterpreter.org.

A Solvable Problem

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

A Solvable Problem

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Existing Technologies:

  • Efficiency

e.g., incandescent bulbs waste 95% of energy input

  • Renewables

e.g., solar power reaching Earth is 20,000 times current world power usage

  • Nuclear

new, safer technologies, with less waste

CA energy from fossil fuels today ≈ 66% with closed/canceled nuclear ≈ 27%

A Solvable Problem

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Future Technologies:

  • Algae-based biofuels
  • r bacteria that remove CO2 from air
  • Solar energy from space

where it’s never cloudy

  • Nuclear fusion

water from one kitchen faucet could power U.S.

  • … and many more …
Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Socialized Costs of Fossil Fuels

slide-7
SLIDE 7

10/29/18 7

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Socialized Costs of Fossil Fuels

  • H
  • Health costs (NIH: at least $120 billion/yr)
  • Defense costs (DOD: at least $100 billion/yr)
  • Direct subsidies, tax write-offs (~$20+ billion/yr)
  • Terrorism/totalitarianism fueled by oil revenue
  • Environmental damage from spills, strip mines
  • …

IMF 2015: global subsidy ~ $4 trillion/yr (US ~$1 trillion/yr) Note $1 trillion ≈ $3000/person in USA

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

The Free-Market Solution

Charge true costs of fossil fuels to users with carbon tax.

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

A Letter to Your Grandchildren

— To be opened in 50 Years— Dear Grandchildren, As I write this in 2018, many people are arguing about whether global warming is a real problem and, if so, how serious it will be for you when you are my age. I have examined the evidence, and I have decided to … [fill in your decision] Hope your world is a good one… Love, ______[your name here]

storytimefromspace.com Future talks, primer online: www.globalwarmingprimer.com

GW Resources

Math for Life (general public) Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life, 5e Using and Understanding Mathematics, 7e

jeff@bigkidscience.com

slide-8
SLIDE 8

10/29/18 8

Please download the FREE app

“Totality by Big Kid Science”

(Also in Spanish!)

Children’s Science Titles

(Also Available in Spanish, Japanese)

General Public Titles Textbooks

A Global Warming Primer

www.jeffreybennett.com jeff@bigkidscience.com @JeffreyOBennett 30% “Buy Direct” Discount Offer use link/code at: www.BigKidScience.com/books

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming

www. www.globalwa warmingprimer.com Jeff Bennett jeff@bigkidscience.com

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Quantitative Literacy and Global Warming

Key Connections:

  • Logic and critical thinking
  • Data interpretation and visualization
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Economic considerations
  • Probability/Risk Analysis
  • …
slide-11
SLIDE 11

A tale of two planets…

470°C (880°F) 15°C (59°F)

slide-12
SLIDE 12

A tale of two planets…

470°C (880°F) 15°C (59°F) Distance alone can’t explain it…

In fact: Venus absorbs less sunlight than Earth (because of its reflective clouds) so “should” be cooler!

slide-13
SLIDE 13

The Greenhouse Effect

Net Result: Added Energy (Heat) in Lower Atmosphere

slide-14
SLIDE 14

How do we know the greenhouse effect is real?

Test 1: Laboratory measurements (since 1859! Test 2: Compare predicted and actual planetary temperatures

Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be too cold for life!

slide-15
SLIDE 15

A tale of two planets…

470°C (880°F) 15°C (59°F)

So the greenhouse effect is a very good thing for life!

Enough carbon dioxide to make our planet livable.

Too much of a good thing!

~200,000 times as much carbon dioxide as Earth.

slide-16
SLIDE 16

The Rising CO2 Concentration The Rising CO2 Concentration

slide-17
SLIDE 17

What about before 1958?

Ice core studies

Photo source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores/

slide-18
SLIDE 18

800,000 Years of CO2

slide-19
SLIDE 19

800,000 Years of CO2

  • CO2 today: ~40% higher than in past 800,000 years
  • On track to: double pre-industrial value in 50 to 60 years…
  • triple that value by mid next century…
slide-20
SLIDE 20

“Global Warming 1-2-3”

  • 1. FACT: Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes

Earth warmer than it would be otherwise.

slide-21
SLIDE 21

“Global Warming 1-2-3”

  • 1. FACT: Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes

Earth warmer than it would be otherwise.

  • 2. FACT: Use of fossil fuels (coal/oil/gas) is adding

carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

slide-22
SLIDE 22

“Global Warming 1-2-3”

  • 1. FACT: Carbon dioxide (a “greenhouse gas”) makes

Earth warmer than it would be otherwise.

  • 2. FACT: Use of fossil fuels (coal/oil/gas) is adding

carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

  • 3. CONCLUSION: We expect global warming to occur.
slide-23
SLIDE 23

What we are now doing to the world … by adding greenhouse gases to the air at an unprecedented rate… is new in the experience of the Earth. It is mankind and his activities which are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways. — British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Nov. 8, 1989

(in a speech to the United Nations)

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Confirmation: The Warming is Underway…

Global Average Temperature (Compared to 20th Century Average)

Temperature Difference (°C) (°F)

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Ocean Warming

slide-26
SLIDE 26

It’s not the Sun…

slide-27
SLIDE 27

800,000 Years of Climate Change

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Consequences of Global Warming

  • Regional climate change
slide-29
SLIDE 29

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Credit: James Hansen, as reproduced in New York Times

  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

  • N. Hemis

isphere Summer Temperatures

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Credit: James Hansen, as reproduced in New York Times

  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

  • N. Hemis

isphere Summer Temperatures

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

The Colorado High Park wildfire. Credit: U.S. National Forest Service, from Wikimedia Commons

  • Regional climate change

Consequences of Global Warming

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Hurricane Patricia (2015). Credit: Scott Kelly, NASA

  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather

Consequences of Global Warming

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather

Consequences of Global Warming

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather

Consequences of Global Warming

Energy drives storms and weather… … and global warming is adding 250 trillion joules/s (0.5 W/m2) to oceans/atmosphere

  • Equiv. to:
  • 4 Hiroshima bombs /s
  • 500,000 lightning bolts/s
  • 2 ongoing hurricanes
  • 3,000 cat. F5 tornadoes/day
slide-38
SLIDE 38

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather
  • Melting of Sea Ice

Consequences of Global Warming

Amplifies global warming! Arctic summer ice coverage

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from

Red = 1-meter rise; yellow = 6-meter rise

  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather
  • Melting of Sea Ice
  • Rising Sea Level

Consequences of Global Warming

Damage in New Jersey from the Hurricane Sandy storm surge (2012). Credit: Wikipedia/U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen

Regions that will be below sea level

And if Greenland and Antarctica fully melted… à Sea level rise >70 meters (240 ft)

slide-40
SLIDE 40
  • Regional climate change
  • Increase in storms and extreme weather
  • Melting of Sea Ice
  • Rising Sea Level
  • Ocean acidification

Consequences of Global Warming

Change in a coral reef in the Florida Keys attributed to ocean acidification. Photos from www.climateinterpreter.org.

slide-41
SLIDE 41

A Solvable Problem

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

slide-42
SLIDE 42

A Solvable Problem

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Existing Technologies:

  • Efficiency

e.g., incandescent bulbs waste 95% of energy input

  • Renewables

e.g., solar power reaching Earth is 20,000 times current world power usage

  • Nuclear

new, safer technologies, with less waste

CA energy from fossil fuels today ≈ 66% with closed/canceled nuclear ≈ 27%

slide-43
SLIDE 43

A Solvable Problem

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Future Technologies:

  • Algae-based biofuels
  • r bacteria that remove CO2 from air
  • Solar energy from space

where it’s never cloudy

  • Nuclear fusion

water from one kitchen faucet could power U.S.

  • … and many more …
slide-44
SLIDE 44

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Socialized Costs of Fossil Fuels

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

Socialized Costs of Fossil Fuels

  • H
  • Health costs (NIH: at least $120 billion/yr)
  • Defense costs (DOD: at least $100 billion/yr)
  • Direct subsidies, tax write-offs (~$20+ billion/yr)
  • Terrorism/totalitarianism fueled by oil revenue
  • Environmental damage from spills, strip mines
  • …

IMF 2015: global subsidy ~ $4 trillion/yr (US ~$1 trillion/yr) Note $1 trillion ≈ $3000/person in USA

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

The Free-Market Solution

Charge true costs of fossil fuels to users with carbon tax.

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

slide-48
SLIDE 48

Figure from The Cosmic Perspective, 7ed (based on data from NOAA and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica)

A Letter to Your Grandchildren

— To be opened in 50 Years— Dear Grandchildren, As I write this in 2018, many people are arguing about whether global warming is a real problem and, if so, how serious it will be for you when you are my age. I have examined the evidence, and I have decided to … [fill in your decision] Hope your world is a good one… Love, ______[your name here]

slide-49
SLIDE 49

storytimefromspace.com Future talks, primer online: www.globalwarmingprimer.com

GW Resources

slide-50
SLIDE 50

Math for Life (general public) Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life, 5e Using and Understanding Mathematics, 7e

jeff@bigkidscience.com

slide-51
SLIDE 51

Please download the FREE app

“Totality by Big Kid Science”

(Also in Spanish!)

slide-52
SLIDE 52

Children’s Science Titles

(Also Available in Spanish, Japanese)

General Public Titles Textbooks

A Global Warming Primer

www.jeffreybennett.com jeff@bigkidscience.com @JeffreyOBennett 30% “Buy Direct” Discount Offer use link/code at: www.BigKidScience.com/books