STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON THERMOKARST STATE IN CONTINUOUS ON THERMOKARST STATE IN CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONE OF WESTERN SIBERIA ON PERMAFROST ZONE OF WESTERN SIBERIA ON BASE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA BASE OF REMOTE

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SLIDE 1

Yu.M. Polishchuk1,2, V.P. Dneprovskaya1, N.A.Bryksina2, 3

1Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS,

3, Akademichesky Ave., Tomsk, 634021, Russia

2Ugra State University

16, Chekhova street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628012, Russia

3Ugra research institute of information technologies

151, Mira street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011, Russia

STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON THERMOKARST STATE IN CONTINUOUS ON THERMOKARST STATE IN CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONE OF WESTERN SIBERIA ON PERMAFROST ZONE OF WESTERN SIBERIA ON BASE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA BASE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA

Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies

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SLIDE 2

DATA

and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

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SLIDE 3

Long-term time numbers of mid-annual values of air temperature, quantity of atmospheric precipitation and other climatic parameters, received at 156 meteorological stations in West-Siberian territory for the period 1955 - 2006 years have been analyzed.

Climatic data

Landsat - 1 (scаnnеr MSS), 10.08.1973 Landsat - 5 (scаnnеr MSS), 27.07.1984 Landsat - 5 (scаnnеr MSS), 26.06.1988 Landsat - 4 (scаnnеr ТM), 01.08.1988 Landsat - 5 (scаnnеr ТM), 20.09.1989 Resurs - F2 (scanner МК 4), 14.06.1993 Landsat - 7 (scаnnеr ETM), 07.08.1999 Landsat - 7 (scаnnеr ETM), 03.08.2001 Landsat - 7 (scаnnеr ETM), 03.07.2002 Spot - 5 (scаnnеr HRV), 20.07.2005 ERS-2 – 2005, June – 2006, September ENVISAT – 2004, May - September

Remote sensing data

Collections of space images of 1973-2006 years

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SLIDE 4

Objects of geocryological studies

The most effective The most effective geoindicators geoindicators of cryogenic changes of permafrost territories

  • f cryogenic changes of permafrost territories

under global warming using remote sensing are under global warming using remote sensing are thermokarst thermokarst lakes. Below is a

  • lakes. Below is a

fragment of space image fragment of space image Landsat

Landsat-

  • 7 (07.08.1999

7 (07.08.1999г г.) .) with indicated objects of

with indicated objects of geocryological studies: thermokarst lakes - 1; dried lakes (khasyreys) – 2.

1 2

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SLIDE 5

CHARACTERISTICS of PILOT TERRITORIES and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

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SLIDE 6

Map of permafrost zoning Map of permafrost zoning

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SLIDE 7

Map of Map of geobotanical geobotanical zoning zoning

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SLIDE 8

Some results of climatic changes analysis

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SLIDE 9

Climatic changes in southern part of Western Siberia Climatic changes in southern part of Western Siberia ( (territory of Outside the permafrost)

territory of Outside the permafrost)

  • Mean value
  • confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Quantity of atmospheric precipitation Mid-annual values of air temperature

Mid-annual air temperature in the second period (1980-1992 years) in comparison with the period of 1955-1970 years has increased approximately 1,0 0С Quantity of atmospheric precipitation has increased approximately 0.2 mm

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year T, ºС

30 34 38 42 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year Q, mm

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SLIDE 10

Temperature change Temperature change

in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous permafrost section ( permafrost section (Yamal Yamal-

  • Nenets

Nenets region) region)

Mid-annual air temperature in the second period (1980-2006 years) in comparison with the period of 1973-1979 years has increased 0,96 0С

  • Mean value
  • confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability
  • 11.0
  • 10.0
  • 9.0
  • 8.0
  • 7.0
  • 6.0
  • 5.0
  • 4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year T, ºС

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SLIDE 11

Methodical questions

  • f analysis
  • f geocryologic changes
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SLIDE 12

Space image Landsat Space image Landsat-

  • 1 (10.08.1973)

1 (10.08.1973)

with indicated with indicated thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes

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SLIDE 13

Fragment of space image Spot Fragment of space image Spot-

  • 5

5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) )

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SLIDE 14

Comparison of space images Comparison of space images Landsat Landsat-

  • 1 (10.08.1973) and Spot

1 (10.08.1973) and Spot-

  • 5

5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) )

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SLIDE 15

а b c d

1973 1988 1993 2005

151 27 3

Landsat-4 (57m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 7 area

Thermokarst lake 7 areas (red) changes

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SLIDE 16

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 9 area

1973 (a) 1993 (b) 2002 (c) 2005 (d)

112 ha 65 ha 52 ha 47 ha

Landsat-4 (57 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

а b c d

Changes of area of thermokarst lake 9 (red)

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SLIDE 17

Consequent stages of changes of lake 52 area in PT-5

1984 (a) 1988 (b) 1989 (c) 1999 (d) 2001 (e) 43.5 ha 45.6 ha 49.0 ha 3.9 ha 4.4 ha

Landsat-5 (57 m) Landsat-4 (30 m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m)

Decrease of area (red) of thermokarst lake 52 in time

a b e c d

Decrease of area (red) of thermokarst lake 52 in time

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SLIDE 18

Foto by S.N. Kirpotin

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SLIDE 19

Intraseasonal Intraseasonal changes of changes of thermokarst thermokarst lakes areas lakes areas

using radar images ERS using radar images ERS-

  • 2

2 and ENVISAT and ENVISAT

PT-1 2004 -2005 г.

Pilot territories Year Month May June July August September PT-1 2004 68,5 71,0 69,2 2005 68,7 69,4 70,6 Date

Date Date

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SLIDE 20

Pilot territories Year Month May June July August September

PT-5 2005 57,4 58,6 57,8 2006 56,8 55,8 55,2 55,5

PT-5

2005 -2006 г.

Date Date

Intraseasonal Intraseasonal changes of changes of thermokarst thermokarst lakes areas lakes areas

using radar images ERS using radar images ERS-

  • 2

2

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SLIDE 21

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

1973 1973 -

  • 2155,1

2155,1 ha ha, , 2005 2005 -

  • 1902,2

1902,2 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-1: S S (1973

(1973 ) ) –

– S S (2005

(2005 ) ) =

= -469,6 ha

Normalized total area decrease k = - 22%

Analysis of lakes area changes in PT Analysis of lakes area changes in PT-

  • 1

1

Lake number 1973 1988 2002 2005

1 26 13 2 90 80 69 31 3 14 12 3 4 61 27 2 5 76 58 49 47 6 55 53 45 39 7 151 27 8 43 22 14 13 9 112 68,3 52 47 10 66 57 36 30 11 50 25 6 12 65 61,5 61,7 65 13 34,7 33,5 33,3 33,4 14 68,5 66,8 65,6 54,9 15 25,3 22,7 24,2 24,8 16 9,8 12,6 13,4 14,1 17 52,9 56,4 57,3 57,3 18 46,8 51,3 51,3 51,2 19 65 65,8 65,5 66,5 20 118,2 121,4 121,8 122,8 21 52,2 55,8 57,4 48,6 22 21,7 26,8 27,7 27,1 23 68,4 72,7 75,7 76,2 24 33,2 34,8 35,7 35,1 25 25 25,1 26,5 28,2 26 162,8 167,4 171,5 170,2 27 22,2 24,1 24,7 24,9 28 36,9 41,5 41,3 41,6 29 8 9,7 10,3 10,2 30 17,5 22,9 21,7 21,9 31 42,4 42,7 46,2 46,5 32 29,3 32,5 32 31,6 33 49,6 50,4 50,6 49,7 34 14,9 16,2 17,6 17,6 35 33,1 34,1 38,2 39,8 36 14,1 15,9 16,5 16,9 37 11,9 13 14,6 15,4 38 32,7 35,9 35,6 36,3 39 94 94,6 100,2 100,3 40 273,2 273,2 273,1 273,2

Decrease of lake area Increase of lake area No changes

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SLIDE 22

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

19 1984 84 -

  • 3165.

3165.7 7 ha ha, , 200 2001 1 -

  • 2892.

2892.4 4 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-5: S S (1984

(1984 ) ) –

– S S (2001

(2001 ) ) =

= 273,3 ha

Normalized total area decrease k = - 9%

Total analysis of changes of lake Total analysis of changes of lake’ ’s areas in PT s areas in PT-

  • 5

5

Decrease of lake area Increase of lake area No changes

Lake number 1984 1988 1989 1999 2001 1 246.8 33.9 34.6 12.3 11.6 2 42.2 42.3 8.4 7.6 10 92.1 97.3 99.0 83.1 81.4 11 128.6 83.1 110.6 58.2 53.9 13 135.0 143.9 159.9 91.0 98.3 14 19.7 23.8 11.9 10.6 17 151.5 161.2 79.0 74.2 22 27.4 14.4 5.0 7.1 23 234.6 251.9 238.0 209.8 25 13.9 17.8 7.8 7.7 30 13.5 14.0 14.0 6.7 5.5 36 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 0.0 45 17.1 17.2 2.7 2.9 50 150.5 148.2 142.2 33.5 26.2 52 43.5 45.6 49.0 3.9 4.4 56 17.7 20.9 9.0 10.1 59 39.9 33.9 41.2 28.3 26.8 60 62.2 64.4 30.4 34.5 63 9.0 2.4 11.8 1.8 1.4 64 2.9 3.7 4.3 0.0 0.0 69 81.5 76.6 79.0 40.8 31.4 71 9.0 7.4 16.4 0.4 0.6 73 35.5 39.8 0.8 0.8 74 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0 75 60.3 62.0 53.6 50.3 84 25.1 27.3 29.3 14.4 7.8 85 18.4 23.7 4.7 8.2 86 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 3.8 88 71.6 72.0 66.2 64.6 89 39.3 40.0 28.9 26.7 4 58.6 66.1 74.3 67.6 74.4 5 11.6 15.2 16.9 15.1 15.9 6 7.4 8.1 9.0 8.3 9.6 7 4.8 6.6 8.0 7.2 8.3 8 4.2 5.9 8.0 6.7 7.7 9 37.0 43.1 48.4 46.9 46.1 12 7.7 11.2 18.2 14.1 17.8 15 2.6 8.4 11.8 10.7 18.4 16 0.3 1.0 2.4 13.9 3.7 18 0.0 3.2 0.0 23.5 3.3 19 0.0 0.3 0.0 21.0 0.7 20 0.0 3.2 4.7 15.4 13.3 21 10.3 14.8 16.2 23.7 28.3 26 116.0 115.8 129.4 120.9 126.8 27 33.8 37.6 41.6 39.3 40.8 29 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.1 1.4 Lake number 1984 1988 1989 1999 2001 33 46.7 47.0 53.1 50.9 53.8 34 0.0 0.2 0.5 20.3 1.2 35 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 37 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 4.2 38 110.5 110.1 115.9 113.7 115.3 39 0.0 1.2 0.7 4.7 2.7 40 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 41 1.3 0.0 21.6 17.0 16.5 42 70.9 77.0 97.2 86.5 95.4 43 63.8 73.5 76.8 75.2 80.0 44 100.5 104.4 109.5 108.3 111.6 46 42.5 54.4 103.0 74.2 87.3 47 18.0 17.8 28.7 23.2 25.0 49 30.0 30.8 42.3 34.4 35.9 51 50.9 52.6 55.9 53.2 55.4 54 31.3 31.7 34.9 34.2 35.8 55 32.6 41.0 41.1 63.5 57 1.6 2.3 10.8 4.8 12.9 58 0.0 0.3 2.8 1.3 15.1 61 1.6 16.4 11.3 32.0 62 59.6 63.8 83.6 68.9 77.1 65 41.2 41.5 48.6 44.5 46.5 67 6.4 6.5 9.8 8.1 10.5 68 14.2 15.7 27.7 19.3 24.1 70 77.7 134.3 111.6 181.6 72 3.9 6.6 7.2 14.4 5.6 76 9.7 11.2 20.2 19.8 26.4 77 3.2 8.6 4.1 20.8 4.6 78 8.7 11.8 11.0 11.2 79 10.3 18.0 25.8 30.8 38.5 80 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.6 6.2 81 0.3 6.4 25.6 9.9 25.8 82 4.8 12.3 11.9 13.7 83 7.9 16.0 15.9 17.2 87 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.2 1.5 91 15.2 13.1 19.8 19.7 20.0 3 57.7 60.1 66.9 57.0 64.8 24 9.3 8.9 9.9 9.8 10.0 28 27.1 27.8 31.4 28.0 28.1 31 13.8 15.1 20.7 14.7 17.8 32 34.4 0.2 45.3 2.9 48 25.5 26.8 36.3 28.0 29.2 53 64.7 52.7 78.7 60.7 65.8 66 10.0 8.4 10.4 9.7 10.2 90 21.9 23.7 25.9 24.0 25.0

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SLIDE 23

Temporal changes of Temporal changes of thermokarst thermokarst lakes in PT lakes in PT-

  • 5

5

y = -1.7376x + 3505.7 R

2 = 0.9036

20 40 60 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Т, year S, ha Decrease of lake area

y = 0.5619x - 1090.6 R2 = 0.6861

20 40 60 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Т, year S, ha Increase of lake area

y = -0.2225x + 476.79 R

2 = 0.1657

20 40 60 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Т, year S, ha All lake

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SLIDE 24

Results of analysis

  • f geocryologic changes
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SLIDE 25

Samples of lakes areas changes Samples of lakes areas changes in continuous permafrost zone in continuous permafrost zone

Arctic tundra, PT Arctic tundra, PT-

  • 10, PT

10, PT-

  • 11

11

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

19 1984 84 – – 3463,5 3463,5 ha ha, , 200 2006 6 – – 3761 3761, ,0 0 ha ha. .

PT PT-

  • 11

11

Total area increase of lakes in PT-11: 297,3 ha

Normalized total area increase k = 9%

Total area increase of lakes in PT-10: 344,1 ha

Normalized total area increase k = 10%

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

1984 1984 – – 3421 3421, ,2 2 ha ha, , 2006 2006 – – 3765,3 3765,3 ha ha. .

PT PT-

  • 10

10

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Changes of summarized area Changes of summarized area

  • f
  • f thermokarst

thermokarst lakes lakes

in continuous permafrost zone in continuous permafrost zone

Pilot territories

PT-7 PT-10 PT-8 PT-9 PT-11

Total area of Total area of lakes lakes, ha

1973 1984 6292,7 3421,2 1899,1 3566,9 3611,85 2006 6965,5 3765,3 2035,0 3998,9 3975,9

Volume of sample

80 40 30 40 60

Total area decrease of lakes, ha

672,8 344,1 135,9 432,0 364,05

k, % 10,7 10 7 12 9 k - Normalized total area of lakes increase

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SLIDE 27

Change of summarized area of Change of summarized area of thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes

in discontinuous permafrost zone in discontinuous permafrost zone

k - Normalized total area of lakes decrease

Pilot territories PT-1 PT-2 PT-3 PT-4 PT-5 PT-6 Total area Total area

  • f lakes
  • f lakes,

, ha ha 1973 1984 1988 2155,1 3673, 2 2664,1 3777, 3165, 7 3864,2 2001 2005 1685, 5 3234,8 2644,7 2921,7 2892,4 2759,6 Total area decrease

  • f lakes, ha
  • 469,6
  • 438,4
  • 19,4
  • 855,3
  • 273,3
  • 1104,6

k, %

  • 22
  • 12
  • 1
  • 23
  • 9
  • 29
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SLIDE 28

Degree of Degree of latitude latitude

k k

Normalized value of Normalized value of thermokarst thermokarst lakes areas lakes areas depending on degree of latitude depending on degree of latitude

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SLIDE 29

Map of permafrost zoning Map of permafrost zoning

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Thank you! Thank you!