STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON THERMOKARST STATE IN CONTINUOUS ON THERMOKARST STATE IN CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST ZONE OF WESTERN SIBERIA ON PERMAFROST ZONE OF WESTERN SIBERIA ON BASE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA BASE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA Yu.M. Polishchuk 1,2 , V.P. Dneprovskaya 1 , N.A.Bryksina 2, 3 1 Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS, 3, Akademichesky Ave., Tomsk, 634021, Russia 2 Ugra State University 16, Chekhova street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628012, Russia 3 Ugra research institute of information technologies 151, Mira street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011, Russia Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies

DATA and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

Climatic data Long-term time numbers of mid-annual values of air temperature, quantity of atmospheric precipitation and other climatic parameters, received at 156 meteorological stations in West-Siberian territory for the period 1955 - 2006 years have been analyzed. Remote sensing data Collections of space images of 1973-2006 years Landsat - 1 (sc а nn е r MSS), 10.08.1973 Landsat - 5 ( sc а nn е r MSS), 27.07.1984 Landsat - 5 (sc а nn е r MSS), 26.06.1988 Landsat - 4 ( sc а nn е r Т M), 01.08.1988 Landsat - 5 ( sc а nn е r Т M), 20.09.1989 Resurs - F2 (scanner МК 4), 14.06.1993 Landsat - 7 (sc а nn е r ETM), 07.08.1999 Landsat - 7 (sc а nn е r ETM), 03.08.2001 Landsat - 7 (sc а nn е r ETM), 03.07.2002 Spot - 5 (sc а nn е r HRV), 20.07.2005 ERS-2 – 2005, June – 2006, September ENVISAT – 2004, May - September

Objects of geocryological studies The most effective geoindicators geoindicators of cryogenic changes of permafrost territories of cryogenic changes of permafrost territories The most effective under global warming using remote sensing are under global warming using remote sensing are thermokarst thermokarst lakes. Below is a lakes. Below is a fragment of space image Landsat г .) .) with indicated objects of with indicated objects of geocryological studies: fragment of space image 7 (07.08.1999 г Landsat- -7 (07.08.1999 thermokarst lakes - 1; dried lakes (khasyreys) – 2. 1 2

CHARACTERISTICS of PILOT TERRITORIES and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

Map of permafrost zoning Map of permafrost zoning

Map of geobotanical geobotanical zoning zoning Map of

Some results of climatic changes analysis

Climatic changes in southern part of Western Siberia Climatic changes in southern part of Western Siberia ( territory of Outside the permafrost) ( territory of Outside the permafrost) Mid-annual values of air temperature T, ºС Mid-annual air temperature in 2 the second period (1980-1992 1 years) in comparison with the 0 period of 1955-1970 years has increased approximately 1,0 0 С -1 -2 -3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year Quantity of atmospheric precipitation Q, mm 42 Quantity of atmospheric precipitation has increased 38 approximately 0.2 mm 34 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year - Mean value - confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Temperature change Temperature change in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous permafrost section (Yamal Yamal- -Nenets Nenets region) region) permafrost section ( T, ºС -4.0 Mid-annual air -5.0 temperature in the -6.0 second period -7.0 (1980-2006 years) in -8.0 comparison with the -9.0 period of 1973-1979 -10.0 years has increased 0,96 0 С -11.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year - Mean value - confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Methodical questions of analysis of geocryologic changes

Space image Landsat- -1 (10.08.1973) 1 (10.08.1973) Space image Landsat with indicated thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes with indicated

Fragment of space image Spot- -5 5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) ) Fragment of space image Spot

Comparison of space images Comparison of space images Landsat- -1 (10.08.1973) and Spot 1 (10.08.1973) and Spot- -5 5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) ) Landsat

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 7 area а b c d Thermokarst lake 7 areas (red) changes 1973 1988 1993 2005 151 27 3 0 Landsat-4 (57m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 9 area c а b d Changes of area of thermokarst lake 9 (red) 1973 (a) 1993 (b) 2002 (c) 2005 (d) 112 ha 65 ha 52 ha 47 ha Landsat-4 (57 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

Consequent stages of changes of lake 52 area in PT-5 b a d e c Decrease of area (red) of thermokarst lake 52 in time Decrease of area (red) of thermokarst lake 52 in time 1984 (a) 1988 (b) 1989 (c) 1999 (d) 2001 (e) 43.5 ha 45.6 ha 49.0 ha 3.9 ha 4.4 ha Landsat-5 (57 m) Landsat-4 (30 m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m)

Foto by S.N. Kirpotin

Intraseasonal changes of changes of thermokarst thermokarst lakes areas lakes areas Intraseasonal using radar images ERS- -2 2 and ENVISAT and ENVISAT using radar images ERS Month Pilot Year PT-1 territories May June July August September 2004 -2005 г . 2004 68,5 71,0 69,2 PT-1 2005 68,7 69,4 70,6 Date Date Date

Intraseasonal changes of changes of thermokarst thermokarst lakes areas lakes areas Intraseasonal using radar images ERS- -2 2 using radar images ERS Month Pilot Year PT-5 territories May June July August September 2005 -2006 г . PT-5 2005 57,4 58,6 57,8 2006 56,8 55,8 55,2 55,5 Date Date

Analysis of lakes area changes in PT- -1 1 Analysis of lakes area changes in PT Lake number 1973 1988 2002 2005 1 26 13 0 0 2 90 80 69 31 Decrease of lake area 3 14 12 3 0 4 61 27 2 0 Increase of lake area 5 76 58 49 47 No changes 6 55 53 45 39 7 151 27 0 0 8 43 22 14 13 9 112 68,3 52 47 10 66 57 36 30 11 50 25 6 0 12 65 61,5 61,7 65 Total area of lakes : Total area of lakes : 13 34,7 33,5 33,3 33,4 68,5 66,8 65,6 54,9 14 1973 - - 2155,1 2155,1 ha ha, , 1973 15 25,3 22,7 24,2 24,8 16 9,8 12,6 13,4 14,1 2005 - 2005 - 1902,2 1902,2 ha ha. . 17 52,9 56,4 57,3 57,3 46,8 51,3 51,3 51,2 18 19 65 65,8 65,5 66,5 20 118,2 121,4 121,8 122,8 Total area decrease of lakes in PT-1: 21 52,2 55,8 57,4 48,6 22 21,7 26,8 27,7 27,1 = -469,6 ha ) = S (1973 S ) – – S S (2005 (1973 ) (2005 ) 23 68,4 72,7 75,7 76,2 24 33,2 34,8 35,7 35,1 25 25,1 26,5 28,2 25 26 162,8 167,4 171,5 170,2 Normalized total area decrease 27 22,2 24,1 24,7 24,9 k = - 22% 28 36,9 41,5 41,3 41,6 29 8 9,7 10,3 10,2 30 17,5 22,9 21,7 21,9 31 42,4 42,7 46,2 46,5 32 29,3 32,5 32 31,6 49,6 50,4 50,6 49,7 33 34 14,9 16,2 17,6 17,6 35 33,1 34,1 38,2 39,8 36 14,1 15,9 16,5 16,9 37 11,9 13 14,6 15,4 38 32,7 35,9 35,6 36,3 39 94 94,6 100,2 100,3 40 273,2 273,2 273,1 273,2