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The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment
Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People
- Dr. Ghulam Rasul
Regional Program Manager ICIMOD
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Mountains, Climate Change, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Mountains, Climate Change, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People Dr. Ghulam Rasul Regional Program Manager ICIMOD The he Hin indu du Kush sh Him imalaya alaya Global asset for food, energy, water, carbon, and
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- 8 countries
- 240 million people
in the HKH mountains and hills
- 1.65 billion people
downstream
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HI HIMAP P 1st
st
Ass ssess ssme ment nt Process cess
>350 people and growing: 210 authors (30% women; 80% from the region), 125 external reviewers, 20 Review Editors To be published by Springer Nature, fully Open Access, end 2018 Four Writeshops: Jan, June and Sept 2016 and Aug 2017
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Even n 1.5 5 Degree ees s is is T Too
- Ho
Hot for the he HK HKH and amplified by Elevation Dependent Warming
Source: HIMAP climate change chapter and Kraaijenbrink et al. 2017, Nature
HKH will warm more compared to global mean and more rapidly at higher elevations
2.1 ± 0.1˚C (PI) in a 1.5 degree world 2.5 ± 1.5˚C by 2100 relative to 1976-2005 (RCP 4.5) 5.5 ± 1.5˚C by 2100 relative to 1976-2005 at current emission pathways
For areas above 2,000m, if 1.5˚C EOC then:
– Karakoram 2.2 ± 0.4˚C – Central Himalayas (2.0 ± 0.5˚C) – Southeast Himalayas (2.0 ± 0.5˚C)
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In a 1.5˚ C world, glaciers in the HKH will lose 36% volume by 2100 A 2˚ C global warming scenario implies a regional warming of around 2.7˚ C and a 49% loss of ice volume Snow covered areas and snow volumes will decrease and snowline elevations will rise; Snow melt induced run-off peak will be stronger and occur earlier in the year
Source: HIMAP climate change and cryosphere chapters and Kraaijenbrink et al. 2017, Nature
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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal Source: HIMAP climate change and cryosphere chapters and Kraaijenbrink et al. 2017, Nature
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Not running out of water, but…
Contribution to total flow by (a) glacial melt, (b) snowmelt, and (c) rainfall-runoff for major streams during the reference period of 1998–2007. Line thickness indicates the average discharge during the reference
- period. Source: Lutz et al. (2014)
Greater impact for those living closer to glaciers Climate change is expected to drive consistent increases in total runoff of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra Indus: increased glacier melt, then declines after mid-century Ganges/Brahmaputra: increased runoff due mainly to precipitation Changing precipitation and flow patterns – more floods and droughts; high uncertainty Climate change also likely to affect groundwater, especially springs in the mid-hills of the HKH, but limited evidence.
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Disaster risk is increasing
Floods, droughts, landslides, glacial lake
- utburst floods
One-third of disasters are floods, many crossing national borders More than 1 billion people at risk of exposure to increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards Women more susceptible to natural disasters then men
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Mean relative change in 50 year return period of floods
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
Average river flow will increase by EoC in upper river basins: 50% in upper Indus 30%–40% in upper Ganges 25%–50% in upper Brahmaputra Intensities of ‘once in 50 years’ flood events will increase: 40%–110% in upstream areas 115%–150% in downstream areas
Fl Flood
- d ma
magni gnitude tude ma may y double ble
Source: Wijngaard et al. 2017, PLOS One
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Key Findings: Adaptation
Climate change adaptation policies and practices must intensify in the HKH—and become transformative. Institutional capacity on adaptation urgently needs to increase until it fits to purpose at each level of governance. Policy and practice should focus more on the links among climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Key Findings: Adaptation
Local-level autonomous responses to climate variability and extreme events must be studied systematically. Such responses need to become a source of critical, practice-based feedback to adaptation planning at higher governance levels.
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