School of Earth Stanford University Scottish Energy Forum - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

School of Earth Stanford University Scottish Energy Forum September 24, 2020 Addressing Climate Change: The Global Clean Energy Transition Lynn Orr

Fundamental Question How do we supply the energy the world needs to support a growing population in modern societies while reducing greenhouse gas emissions dramatically? 2 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Greenhouse Gas Emissions 3 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

What energy resources can we use? Current Global Exergy Usage Rate Exergy is energy that can be converted to another ~ 18 TW (0.5 ZJ per year) useful form: electricity, mechanical work, or heat. 4 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Conversion Efficiency of “Engines” 100.0 Savery, Newcomen (<0.5%) Watt/Boulton Steam Engines 50% Post-Watt Steam Engines First-Law Efficiency (%) . Lenoir, Hugon Coal-Gas Engines Otto/Langen Coal-Gas Engines Atkinson, Tangye Coal-Gas Engines 10.0 Banki Spirits Engine Priestman's Oil Engine Diesel's Oil Engines Automotive SI Engines Truck Diesel Engines 1.0 Large Bore DI Diesels Steam Turbines Gas Turbine/Steam Turbine Polymer Electrolyte Membrane FC Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells SOFC/Gas Turbine 0.1 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Time (Years A.D.) Source: C. Edwards, GCEP 5 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

So, what do we do about this? • Energy efficiency everywhere • Clean, abundant, low-cost electricity • Electrify many energy services (transportation, heat pumps, …) • Improve the grid to accommodate intermittency, bolster resilience • Deploy carbon capture and storage • Develop and scale new technologies (R&D) 6 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Efficiency of Building Systems and Technologies 7 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Overall Efficiency of Conversion of Thermal Energy in Fuel to Light? Incandescent bulbs: E overall = 0.35 x 0.90 x 0.04 = 1.3% Compact fluorescent: E overall = 0.35 x 0.90 x 0.16 = 4.2% Future LED: E overall = 0.35 x 0.90 x 0.40 = 12.6% NGCC + LED: E overall = 0.65 x 0.90 x 0.40 = 23.4% Source: Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in US, NRC Report, 2010 8 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Energy Systems: Stanford District Energy System • Replace NGCC plant with heat pump system + direct solar access • Saves $400 M over 30 yrs in reduced fuel purchase • 18% reduction in water use, 68% reduction in CO 2 emissions 9 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Clean Electric Power 10 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Natural gas for electric power • Replacing an old coal-fired power plant with a combined cycle gas turbine reduces emissions a lot (57% C/kWh in fuel, 32→60% power plant efficiency = 69.6% reduction/kWh) • New oxyfuel designs offer • Eliminating methane leaks is an the possibility of low-cost essential element of NG use – carbon capture from natural new sensor technologies will gas generation help detect leaks 11 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

IEA Estimates of Future Wind and Solar Costs Source: IEA Renewable Energy Report 2017 12 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Global Generation by Fuel, 2019-24 Source: IEA Renewables 2019 13 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Nuclear Power • 19% of current US electric power generation, 60% of non-GHG power, baseload with 89% capacity factor – but existing nukes are having trouble competing with gas in dispatch markets • Reactor R&D options: – Small modular reactors (passive safety, lower cost?) – High temperature, gas cooled reactors (more efficient power generation, process heat?) – Fast spectrum reactors (reduced waste) • More R&D opportunities in advanced fuels, high performance materials for rad environments • Challenges: waste storage, siting, licensing and construction costs 14 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

NuScale Small Modular Reactor • 50-60 MWe modules • Relatively simple design: pressurized water, thermal convection replaces pumps, reactor surrounded by below- grade pool as reactor heat sink • Up to 12 modules collocated • Dispatchable load following design • NRC Design Certification Review underway (as of 1/2017) • First project: UAMPS to be located at Idaho National Lab https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/design-cert/nuscale.html 15 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

The Grid 16 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

The Future Grid differs Radically from the Present Characterized by More Flexibility and Agility: Prevent local disturbances from spreading, and recover more quickly from storm disruptions Historical Emerging Graphic Source: International Energy Agency • Flexible and Resilient Systems • Operator-Based Grid Management • Sensors and Data Acquisition • Centralized Control • Algorithms and Computer Infrastructure • Off-Line Analysis / Limit Setting • Multi-Level Coordination / Precise Control • Faster-than-Real-Time Analysis Analyze and manage complex systems of complex systems! 17 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Integration of Intermittent Renewables Need combination of storage + dispatch Dispatchable firming will be essential. Natural gas offers many advantages: low capital cost, low fuel cost, low (but not zero) GHG emissions. In the long term, CCS will be required for continued NG use. 18 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Energy Storage Technology Options Durable, Earth abundant materials, low toxicity, scalable Credit: Sandia Laboratory Lots of battery research underway – for now storage is still relatively expensive compared to dispatch options. H 2 manufacture from low cost renewable power if costs can be reduced and efficiency increased. 19 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Clean Transportation and Vehicle Systems 20 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Battery and Hybrid Electric Vehicles Chevy Volt • As battery costs have declined, more battery and hybrid electric vehicles have appeared on the market • Many auto manufacturers have announced new vehicles to be on the market by 2023 • EVs and hybrids, 1% of auto sales in 2016 (BNEF) • Britain, France to prohibit IC engines after 2040, China planning deadline Chevy Bolt 21 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

EV and Hybrid Deployment https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicles-accelerate-54-new-car-sales-2040/ • Vehicle electrification is growing rapidly from a tiny base – a long way to go to displace IC engines! • Need high efficiency engines and lower GHG oil! 22 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Carbon Capture and Storage 23 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Carbon Capture and Storage • Long history of CO 2 injection for EOR (1970s) – still the only market of any size for CO 2 – and likely will be going forward if no carbon price • Most CO 2 injected so far has been from natural gas separations that have to be done anyway to sell the gas • Demonstration testing likely to continue, but deployment of deep saline aquifer injection is likely to be limited in the absence of a carbon price (see Norway for Sleipner, Snohvit) • If natural gas displaces coal in a big way, CCS for natural gas will be needed for deep decarbonization. 24 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Low cost capture of CO 2 from natural gas power generation: Net Power Supercritical CO 2 Power Plant Supercritical CO 2 is the working fluid in this oxyfuel combustion design – efficiency near 60%, very low added cost of CO 2 separation, competitive COE (projected, at least) Source: Service, Fossil power, guilt free, Science, 25 May 2018, 356 (6340), 796-799 25 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Density of CO 2 and CH 4 0.02 CH4 (50C) Molar density (mole/cm3) CH4 (75C) CH4 (100C) 0.015 CO2 (50C) CO2 (75C) CO2 (100C) 0.01 0.005 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Pressure (atm) Methane could be removed from a gas field, oxidized, and reinjected. Pressure would decline because CO 2 is more dense than CH 4 . 26 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Removal of atmospheric CO 2 will be needed if we don’t move faster on GHG emissions Source: Anderson & Peters, Science 2016, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182 27 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Direct Air Capture (Climeworks Version) • Adsorption on solid- supported amine coating • Low-grade heat needed for sorbent regeneration • 1000 t/yr installation operating – provides CO 2 for a greenhouse • Cost ~$600/t, but projection ~$100/t possible • Small pilot also operating in Iceland – fast mineralization observed in basalt Source: https://www.climeworks.com/our-technology/ 28 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Biological systems move very large quantities of carbon around the planet – enhance these? • Reduced deforestation • Afforestation (forests in new places) • Forest management • Restored soil carbon • Modified agricultural practices • Coastal blue carbon (carbon storage in coastal wetlands) • BECCS (bioenergy with CCS – electricity, liquid fuels, heat) • < ~5 GtCO 2 /yr worldwide at <$100/t 29 Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20