School of Earth Stanford University Scottish Energy Forum - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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School of Earth Stanford University Scottish Energy Forum - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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School of Earth Stanford University Scottish Energy Forum September 24, 2020 Addressing Climate Change: The Global Clean Energy Transition Lynn Orr Fundamental Question How do we supply the energy the world needs to support a growing

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Stanford University

School of Earth Addressing Climate Change: The Global Clean Energy Transition

Lynn Orr Scottish Energy Forum September 24, 2020

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Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

How do we supply the energy the world needs to support a growing population in modern societies while reducing greenhouse gas emissions dramatically? Fundamental Question

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Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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What energy resources can we use?

Exergy is energy that can be converted to another useful form: electricity, mechanical work, or heat.

Current Global Exergy Usage Rate ~ 18 TW (0.5 ZJ per year)

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Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Time (Years A.D.) First-Law Efficiency (%) .

Savery, Newcomen (<0.5%) Watt/Boulton Steam Engines Post-Watt Steam Engines Lenoir, Hugon Coal-Gas Engines Otto/Langen Coal-Gas Engines Atkinson, Tangye Coal-Gas Engines Banki Spirits Engine Priestman's Oil Engine Diesel's Oil Engines Automotive SI Engines Truck Diesel Engines Large Bore DI Diesels Steam Turbines Gas Turbine/Steam Turbine Polymer Electrolyte Membrane FC Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells SOFC/Gas Turbine

Conversion Efficiency of “Engines”

50%

Source: C. Edwards, GCEP

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Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

So, what do we do about this?

  • Energy efficiency everywhere
  • Clean, abundant, low-cost electricity
  • Electrify many energy services

(transportation, heat pumps, …)

  • Improve the grid to accommodate

intermittency, bolster resilience

  • Deploy carbon capture and storage
  • Develop and scale new technologies

(R&D)

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Efficiency of Building Systems and Technologies

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Overall Efficiency of Conversion of Thermal Energy in Fuel to Light?

Source: Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in US, NRC Report, 2010

Incandescent bulbs: Eoverall = 0.35 x 0.90 x 0.04 = 1.3% Compact fluorescent: Eoverall = 0.35 x 0.90 x 0.16 = 4.2% Future LED: Eoverall = 0.35 x 0.90 x 0.40 = 12.6% NGCC + LED: Eoverall = 0.65 x 0.90 x 0.40 = 23.4%

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Energy Systems: Stanford District Energy System

  • Replace NGCC plant with heat pump system + direct solar access
  • Saves $400 M over 30 yrs in reduced fuel purchase
  • 18% reduction in water use, 68% reduction in CO2 emissions

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Clean Electric Power

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Natural gas for electric power

  • Replacing an old coal-fired

power plant with a combined cycle gas turbine reduces emissions a lot (57% C/kWh in fuel, 32→60% power plant efficiency = 69.6% reduction/kWh)

  • New oxyfuel designs offer

the possibility of low-cost carbon capture from natural gas generation

  • Eliminating methane leaks is an

essential element of NG use – new sensor technologies will help detect leaks

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IEA Estimates of Future Wind and Solar Costs

Source: IEA Renewable Energy Report 2017 12

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Global Generation by Fuel, 2019-24

13 Source: IEA Renewables 2019

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Nuclear Power

  • 19% of current US electric power

generation, 60% of non-GHG power, baseload with 89% capacity factor – but existing nukes are having trouble competing with gas in dispatch markets

  • Reactor R&D options:

– Small modular reactors (passive safety, lower cost?) – High temperature, gas cooled reactors (more efficient power generation, process heat?) – Fast spectrum reactors (reduced waste)

  • More R&D opportunities in advanced

fuels, high performance materials for rad environments

  • Challenges: waste storage, siting,

licensing and construction costs

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Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

NuScale Small Modular Reactor

  • 50-60 MWe modules
  • Relatively simple design:

pressurized water, thermal convection replaces pumps, reactor surrounded by below- grade pool as reactor heat sink

  • Up to 12 modules collocated
  • Dispatchable load following design
  • NRC Design Certification Review

underway (as of 1/2017)

  • First project: UAMPS to be located

at Idaho National Lab

https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/design-cert/nuscale.html 15

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The Grid

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Graphic Source: International Energy Agency

  • Operator-Based Grid Management
  • Centralized Control
  • Off-Line Analysis / Limit Setting
  • Flexible and Resilient Systems
  • Sensors and Data Acquisition
  • Algorithms and Computer Infrastructure
  • Multi-Level Coordination / Precise Control
  • Faster-than-Real-Time Analysis

Historical Emerging

The Future Grid differs Radically from the Present

Characterized by More Flexibility and Agility: Prevent local disturbances from spreading, and recover more quickly from storm disruptions

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Analyze and manage complex systems of complex systems!

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Integration of Intermittent Renewables

Dispatchable firming will be essential. Natural gas offers many advantages: low capital cost, low fuel cost, low (but not zero) GHG

  • emissions. In the long term, CCS will be required for continued NG use.

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Need combination of storage + dispatch

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Energy Storage Technology Options

Credit: Sandia Laboratory

Lots of battery research underway – for now storage is still relatively expensive compared to dispatch options. H2 manufacture from low cost renewable power if costs can be reduced and efficiency increased.

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Durable, Earth abundant materials, low toxicity, scalable

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Clean Transportation and Vehicle Systems

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Battery and Hybrid Electric Vehicles

  • As battery costs have

declined, more battery and hybrid electric vehicles have appeared on the market

  • Many auto manufacturers

have announced new vehicles to be on the market by 2023

  • EVs and hybrids, 1% of auto

sales in 2016 (BNEF)

  • Britain, France to prohibit

IC engines after 2040, China planning deadline

Chevy Volt Chevy Bolt

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EV and Hybrid Deployment

  • Vehicle electrification is growing rapidly from

a tiny base – a long way to go to displace IC engines!

  • Need high efficiency engines and lower GHG
  • il!

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicles-accelerate-54-new-car-sales-2040/ 22

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Carbon Capture and Storage

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Carbon Capture and Storage

  • Long history of CO2 injection for EOR (1970s) – still the
  • nly market of any size for CO2 – and likely will be

going forward if no carbon price

  • Most CO2 injected so far has been from natural gas

separations that have to be done anyway to sell the gas

  • Demonstration testing likely to continue, but

deployment of deep saline aquifer injection is likely to be limited in the absence of a carbon price (see Norway for Sleipner, Snohvit)

  • If natural gas displaces coal in a big way, CCS for

natural gas will be needed for deep decarbonization.

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Low cost capture of CO2 from natural gas power generation: Net Power Supercritical CO2 Power Plant

Supercritical CO2 is the working fluid in this oxyfuel combustion design – efficiency near 60%, very low added cost of CO2 separation, competitive COE (projected, at least)

Source: Service, Fossil power, guilt free, Science, 25 May 2018, 356 (6340), 796-799

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Density of CO2 and CH4

0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Pressure (atm) Molar density (mole/cm3)

CH4 (50C) CH4 (75C) CH4 (100C) CO2 (50C) CO2 (75C) CO2 (100C)

Methane could be removed from a gas field, oxidized, and

  • reinjected. Pressure would decline because CO2 is more

dense than CH4.

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Removal of atmospheric CO2 will be needed if we don’t move faster on GHG emissions

Source: Anderson & Peters, Science 2016, https://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182 27

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Direct Air Capture (Climeworks Version)

Source: https://www.climeworks.com/our-technology/

  • Adsorption on solid-

supported amine coating

  • Low-grade heat

needed for sorbent regeneration

  • 1000 t/yr

installation

  • perating – provides

CO2 for a greenhouse

  • Cost ~$600/t, but

projection ~$100/t possible

  • Small pilot also
  • perating in Iceland

– fast mineralization

  • bserved in basalt

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Biological systems move very large quantities of carbon around the planet – enhance these?

  • Reduced

deforestation

  • Afforestation (forests

in new places)

  • Forest management
  • Restored soil carbon
  • Modified agricultural

practices

  • Coastal blue carbon

(carbon storage in coastal wetlands)

  • BECCS (bioenergy

with CCS – electricity, liquid fuels, heat)

  • < ~5 GtCO2/yr

worldwide at <$100/t

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CO2 Utilization (other than EOR)?

  • Fuels: much more energy

required to make than is stored in the fuel (currently 3-4x)

  • With solar electricity at 2

cents/kWh, making a liquid fuel might be possible

  • Construction materials, cement
  • ffer potential opportunities at

scale

  • Smaller opportunities in

chemicals (urea, renewable CH4)

  • Cost competitiveness is a

primary issue for all of these

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Technology Innovation

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  • Z. Seh, J. Kibsgaard, C.F. Dickens, I. Chorkendorff, J.K. Nørskov, T. F. Jaramillo, Science, 355 6321 (2017)

Drop-in fuels would greatly ease the transition – but very low cost clean electricity and a lot of R&D to lower costs will be required: a long transition here at the very least

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Conclusions

  • Considerable progress has been made in clean energy

technologies, and the global clean energy transition is underway, but much more remains to be done

  • More urgency is clearly needed
  • A portfolio approach is required: fully stocked across

primary energy resources, conversion technologies, systems, and time scales for application, with improved efficiency everywhere

  • The key challenge is to deploy clean energy systems at

very large scale

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Here’s what we do

  • Pay close attention to energy efficiency, especially in buildings

and transportation

  • Make lots of very clean electricity – it’s fundamental to

everything else! Wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear, hydro …

  • Diversify energy storage (chemical bonds, pumped hydro,

batteries) to deal with intermittent generation resources

  • Electrify energy services – heating, cooling, EVs, …
  • Learn to operate, optimize systems of linked, complex systems
  • Drive new technologies to scale – cost reductions will follow
  • Deploy subsurface storage of CO2 more widely
  • Engage in wide-ranging R&D to develop new energy

technologies

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We Can Do This …

if we make up our minds to do it, if we continue on the path we’ve started, and if we increase our ambition now and make a sustained, multi-decade effort to balance human activities and needs with the planet’s systems that serve us in essential ways

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Backup Slides

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International Progress

  • Major commitments in 2014 by the two largest GHG emitters,

China and the US, to reduce emissions

– China: peak emissions by 2030, best efforts to reach peak earlier, reduce GHG emissions/GDP by 60-65% from 2005 levels, ~20% of primary energy from non-fossil resources – US: 26-28% below 2005 emissions by 2025 (Clean Power Plan will contribute)

  • 195 countries issue NDCs after the COP21 meeting
  • Mission Innovation: 20 countries announce plans to seek a

doubling in energy R&D over the next five years, investor coalition commits to early stage tech investments:

– www.mission-innovation.net – www.breakthroughenergy.com

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Scottish Energy Forum – 9/24/20

International Step Back

  • US announced it will withdraw from the Paris agreement
  • Numerous state governors, mayors, company CEOs responded

that they will continue efforts to reduce GHG emissions

  • Clean Power Plan likely to be withdrawn or substantially

revised

  • Proposed revisions to US fuel economy standards would likely

increase transportation emissions

  • US will continue to reduce its emissions, but likely will not

meet the Paris commitment as a result.

  • Other countries have indicated they will continue their

participation in the Paris agreement

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