RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF SPACES POST THE GREAT LOCKDOWN 22 APRIL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

22 APRIL 2020

RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF SPACES POST THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

The Catalyst

• Coronavirus, or COVID-19, is a pandemic that is affecting every country in the

world.

• Unlike SARS, MERS and Ebola, COVID-19 is deemed highly contagious (like the

flu) and has a higher mortality rate than the annual influenza.

• The infection rate per person is R0 > 1 meaning every infected person on average

infects more than 1 person so infection numbers keep rising.

• The speed of infection is stressing all healthcare systems as most countries have

a limited number of ICU beds and ventilators.

• WHO have asked everyone globally to help “flatten the curve”. Flattening the curve

means to slow down the infection rate to not exhaust healthcare capacity. When healthcare capacity is exhausted, it may lead to higher mortality rates.

STRATEGIES IN APPROACHING THIS PANDEMIC

DO NOTHING MITIGATION BLANKET SUPPRESSION ADAPTIVE SUPPRESSION

THE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES IN APPROACHING THIS PANDEMIC

Cities and States have responded differently in approaching this pandemic:

• Little or no social distancing rules put in place.
• Allow the virus to run its course.
• Hope society develops herd immunity by allowing some 60% of the

population to be infected.

• The UK initially adopted this stance before belatedly imposing a lockdown
• n 23 March in response to there being over 8,000 confirmed cases and
• ver 400 deaths.
• As at 22 April, the UK records 255 deaths/1m population.

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

DO NOTHING

United Kingdom

• Leaders counsel the populace to take reasonable precautions, such as practice

social distancing.

• Most businesses remain open. Mass transit is still available, trains and buses
• perate as usual.
• No travel bans. City and country borders remain open.
• Such mitigation does not significantly hamper the economy. Life continues

close to business as usual.

• Hope society develops herd immunity by allowing some 60% of the population

to be infected.

• Sweden adopts this stance. As at 22 April, Sweden records 175 deaths/1m

population.

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

MITIGATION

Sweden

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

BLANKET SUPPRESSION

New Zealand Malaysia

• Maximum effort in curbing human gatherings and movements.
• Physical distancing enforced rigorously.
• People are not allowed out except for buying necessities.
• Most businesses are closed, except for essential services, e.g.

supermarkets, healthcare and logistics.

• Curfews are introduced as necessary.
• Physical distancing practised in buses and trains, controlling the number of

people allowed inside.

• Travel bans. City and country borders are closed.
• New Zealand and Malaysia adopted this stance early. As at 22 April, New

Zealand and Malaysia record 3 deaths/1M population.

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

ADAPTIVE SUPPRESSION

• Suppression adapting to the levels of infection rate. When/where there

are reductions in number of infected persons, government eases restrictions.

• Businesses are allowed to operate whenever/wherever infection rates reduce.
• Domestic travel bans applied and lifted as necessary. International travel could still

be banned.

• This method aims to slow down the infection rate and reduce the stress on

healthcare systems.

• Hong Kong and Singapore adopted this stance post blanket suppression. As at 22

April, Hong Kong records 0.5 deaths/1M population, and Singapore 2 deaths/ 1M population.

Singapore Hong Kong

“Place has been the driving focus of human activity for centuries. Now, your place is at home.”

HOW HAVE THE COVID-19 SUPRESSION STRATEGIES AFFECTED CITIES?

• Possible decrease in demand for traditional meeting spaces

and private offices. Rise in demand for flexible spaces.

• Shifts to remote work environments - the rise of remote work

also increases demand for new digital platforms and functions.

• Virtual communication and communities. Intensification of

digital infrastructure in our cities.

• Decreased demand for, and efficiency of, public transport.
• Tourism related industries have suffered immense losses,

and may potentially shut tourism assets or make them redundant, e.g. hotels, aquariums, museums, convention centers, clubs. .

• Tension between densification and disaggregation.
• Empty public places/spaces. Street life has come to a halt.

Cities are the central points of capital and creativity, designed to be occupied collectively. Pandemics prey

• n our desire for social interaction. Our

primary response thus far, i.e. physical distancing, not only runs contrary to our fundamental desire to interact, but also contrary to the way we have built

• ur cities and plazas, subways and
• buildings. They were designed to be
• ccupied and animated collectively.

HOW COULD THESE AFFECT SPACES POST “THE GREAT LOCKDOWN”

Image source :<a href="https://www.freepik.com/free-photos-vectors/design">Design vector created by freepik - www.freepik.com</a>

“Work has been transformed from a place of action to an outcome of actions.”

NEW NORMS POST THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

With most countries taking measures to help flatten the curve by going into lockdown and adopting high levels of physical distancing, most public spaces have been left empty and vacant. Post lockdown, new isolation induced practices will become the new norm as we shift to "adaptive suppression" which may last until between 2022 and 2025 (Kissler, et.al, Science 14 Apr 2020, DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793) Anticipated new norms are: Physical Distancing, Limited Gatherings Health Screenings, Hygiene Practices Travel Restrictions Digital Interactions, Local Experiences

THESE NEW NORMS TRANSLATE TO SHIFTS IN THE USE OF SPACES

HYGIENE NORMS SPACING OUT DE-DENSIFICATION HYPER-LOCALISM RISE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY & DESIGN

01 02 03 04 05

HYGIENE NORMS

ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS

01

• Handshakes may become a thing of the past. We

could borrow new ways of greeting each other, such as bowing and "namaste."

• Hand sanitiser stations in public spaces, e.g. shopping

malls, petrol stations, markets, will become ubiquitous.

• Temperature scanners at the entrances to public

places and offices.

• Reduced utilisation of public spaces, in

particular, enclosed spaces such as shopping malls, stadiums, event halls, and public transport.

• Potential deployment of UV light ray machines in

confined, high density public spaces.

SPACING OUT

ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS

02

• People may not be inclined to share spaces as much.

This could throw a focus on a wide range of design solutions stressing space flexibility, sustainability, and hygiene.

• New rules and legislation may come into play

demanding measures to avoid contamination and infection.

• A focus on design solutions that enable people to

socialise without being packed "sardine-like" .

• Engineering solutions, e.g. physical barriers may serve

to help stem close contacts.

• Limited number of people allowed in public spaces like

malls, markets, event halls, cinemas and places of worship.

• Reduced number of riders in public transit carriages.
• Reduced number of staff members in offices, with a

significant proportion working from home.

DE-DENSIFICATION

ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS

03

Source : https://www.dotmagazine.online/issues/connecting-the-world-whats-it-worth/Information-and-Energy/Digital-Infras tructure-Key-to-Economic-Development

• Proximity to one’s place of work may no longer be a

significant factor in deciding where to live, and vice versa.

• Increased vacancies of city centre office and

commercial spaces, hotel buildings and conference venues.

• Renewed interest in commercial and residential

properties in the suburbs.

• Alteration of traditional commuter belts.
• Intensification of digital infrastructure in cities, including

suburbs.

HYPER-LOCALISM

ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS

04

• Hyper-localism as a way to support local economies.
• Growth in wellness experiences and localised

weekend family focused holidays in new destinations accessible by car.

• Rise in urban farming and consumption of local

produce.

• Rise in neighbourhood businesses and business

nodes for locally made products, fresh produce and household needs.

RISE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY AND DESIGN

ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS

05

• Retail adopting no-cash policy, leading to a growth in

credit and debit cards, POS systems.

• Mainstream usage of online video conferences.

Growth in small conferences (e.g. for up to 100 pax), digital conference businesses.

• Local businesses prepped with e-commerce

platforms.

• Remote work becoming mainstream, even for non-tech

roles.

• Growth in online delivery services for non-perishables.
• Doorknobs, entrance tags, and thumbprint may

become a thing of the past as a means of access, to be replaced with sensors, facial recognition and retina

• scans. Smartphones to call for a lift/elevator.
• With travel restrictions in place, people could

experience travelling through virtual reality.

POTENTIAL FUTURES

Reconfiguration of high-density and "small unit" housing estates. Think combining such units to allow for larger square footage. Rethink the design of shared spaces. Think new neighbourhood parks with wide pathways. High-dens densit ity housing ing estates es reimagined agined Vacant or under-utilised buildings repurposed for mixed uses, including for residential purposes. Think vacant hotel and

• ffice buildings converted into part-

commercial and part-housing uses, to counter de-densification of high-density residential blocks. Think urban farming taking place in such buildings.

1. 1.

Vacant ant build ldings ings repurp urpos

• sed

ed Think car parks and other vacant spaces repurposed as urban farming lots to improve community and city self-sufficiency.

2. 2.

Rise of urban an fa farming ing Office areas, workspaces and university rooms redesigned to implement physical distancing, e.g. increasing space between

• desks. Think expanding office space into

unconventional areas such as walkways and unused meeting rooms. Think lesser people in offices and classrooms, with working and studying from home as a viable continuous option. 4. 4. Redesigne igned d offic ice e spaces es and educat ation ional al institut itution ions. . Micro-mobility tools can play a role in facilitating mobility across distances unsuited to walking. Think better infrastructure for bicycles, electric-bicycles, and electric-scooters. Think wider pathways for pedestrians. 5. 5. Im Improved ed inf infra rastruc tructure ure for

• r walk

alkab abilit ility an and mic icro- mobilit ility to tools ls.

1 2 3 5 4

Think 5G technology rollouts across cities and

• suburbs. Incorporation of new emerging technologies

in cities focused on improving well-being, mobility and addressing environmental challenges. Think digital democracy tools to ensure that public engagement can continue despite physical distancing. 8.

• 8. Great

eater er inves vestme tment nts into to smart citi ties Think dynamic bus routes that can cater for commuters travelling to destinations, both near and far, at different time slots throughout the day. Think new artificial intelligence platforms that allow for such on-call route planning.

1. 1.

Smart public lic transpor

• rtati

ation

• n plying

ing new routes. . Constant scenario-planning will take place in order to effectively predict future space use, and the technologies needed to navigate work, learning, and leisure. 7. 7. Agilit ility put in action

• n throug

ugh scenar ario io- plann nnin ing g and innovati tion

• n

Think strategies to preserve city character and place identity. Think diversification of means for the expression of the arts. Think new industries to cater for new

• lifestyles. Think novel experiences and

diversification of tourism products to cater for a surge of local and domestic tourism. Think re-skilling to cater for new needs. 4. 4. New means ns to to preser erve e cultur tures es. . Diver ersific ificati ation n of local al econom nomies ies By way of example, city governments need to think of new income streams to replace lost incomes from land-use change, F&B licensing, real estate, etc. The same apply to businesses. 10.

• 10. Diver

ersific ificati ation n of incom

• me

e streams

6 7 8

10

9

REFERENCES

http://www.mygc.com.au/australians-may-not-be-able-to-travel-overseas-until-2021/ https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/coronavirus-impact-on-economy? https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-quarantine-intl-hnk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/europe/turkey-coronavirus-lockdown-response-intl/index.html https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/coronavirus-impact-on-tourism-hospitality-sector-covid-19-cases-india-farhat-jamal-6352249/ https://matadornetwork.com/read/vancouver-aquarium-close-covid-19/ https://medium.com/@madegrandbycam/the-next-normal-places-spaces-4d92fc575e15 https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/new-zealand-preparing-end-lockdown-success-coronavirus-battle-12536871/?ito=social? https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/covid-19-reveals-how-micromobility-can-build-resilient-cities https://qz.com/1835237/amsterdam-adopted-a-new-economic-model-for-life-after-covid-19/ https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793 https://thinkingcity.org/2020/04/13/pandemic-cities-coronavirus-urban-life/ https://www.bain.com/insights/how-to-come-out-stronger-from-covid19-crisis/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055 https://www.boardofinnovation.com/blog/what-is-the-low-touch-economy/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/03/24/how-our-cities-can-reopen-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/ https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/lta-safe-distancing-covid-19-public-transport-12623902 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-07/pandemic-will-accelerate-history-rather-reshape-it? https://www.inc.com/justin-bariso/bill-gates-says-coronavirus-will-change-life-forever-heres-how-to-adapt.html https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-sector/our-insights/how-to-restart-national-economies-during-the-coronavirus-crisis? https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579 https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3078376/coronavirus-food-security-asias-next-battle-post-covid-world https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2020/apr/13/smart-lifts-lonely-workers-no-towers-architecture-after-covid-19-coronavirus https://www.todayonline.com/voices/social-distancing-needed-buses-and-trains-too

RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF SPACES