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Residential PV Market Characterization Greater San Diego Region - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Residential PV Market Characterization Greater San Diego Region - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Residential PV Market Characterization Greater San Diego Region June 25, 2013 www.energycenter.org www.energycenter.org 2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Emerging Renewables Program (ERP)
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Go Solar California (SB1)
- California Solar Initiative (CSI)
- New Solar Homes Partnership
- Municipal Utility Program
Self Generation Incentive Program >30kW Emerging Renewables Program (ERP) ≤30kW
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www.energycenter.org 16,656 16,241 14,922 11,064 2,354 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
SDG&E Territory Residential PV in territory Residential PV in SD County CSI Residential Projects Survey Respondents
*Installations as of 3/31/13
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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Cumulative Installed Systems (#) ERP CSI Other
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Using Local Moran's I (Spatial Statistics)
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Using Local Moran's I (Spatial Statistics)
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1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 50 100 150 200 250 Completed Projects Active Contractors Active Contractors Completed Projects R² = 0.9735 50 100 150 200 250 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Active Contractors Complete Projects
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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Large (Greater than 100/yr) Medium (50 - 100/yr) Small (Up to 50/yr)
Contractors (#) Contractor Size
2001 2006 2012
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Large (Greater than 100/yr) Medium (50 - 100/yr) Small (Up to 50/yr)
Percent of Completed Projects Contractor Size
2001 2006 2012
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1 2 3 4 5 6 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 KW's
Average System Size = 4.5KW
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Cost per watt $ average plus one SD minus one SD
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2013-Q1 2012-Q1 2011-Q1 2010-Q1 2009-Q1 2008-Q1 2007-Q1 0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15% 15%-20% 20%-25% 25%-30% 30%-35%
Up to $0.50 $4.00 - 4.50 $8.00 - 8.50 $12.00 - 12.50 $16.00 - 16.50 $20.00 and Up
2013-Q1 2012-Q1 2011-Q1 2010-Q1 2009-Q1 2008-Q1 2007-Q1
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$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00
System Cost per Watt
Owned Leased
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Leased Owned
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Third Party Projects and Contractors
Active Contractors Completed Projects
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 20 40 60 80 100 120 Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 Q1 - 2010 Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q4 - 2012
Solar City
Lease Own Marketshare 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 20 40 60 80 100 120 Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 Q1 - 2010 Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q4 - 2012
Sullivan Solar
Lease Own Marketshare 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 20 40 60 80 100 120 Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 Q1 - 2010 Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q4 - 2012
Solar West Electric
Lease Own Marketshare 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 20 40 60 80 100 120 Q1 - 2008 Q2 - 2008 Q3 - 2008 Q4 - 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q2 - 2009 Q3 - 2009 Q4 - 2009 Q1 - 2010 Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Q4 - 2012
REC Solar
Lease Own Marketshare
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Characteristic
Adopters (all) Non-Adopters Survey Respondents N Mean
Std Dev
N Mean
Std Dev
N Mean
Std Dev
Loan to value
11,833 77.42 40.77 433,574 90.35 699.13 1,930 71.58 39.99
Assessed Home value
14,138 491,486 514,495 542,858 351,200 425,484 2,273 477,545 420,201
Square footage
14,138 2,466 1,178 542,858 1,915 957 2,273 2,522 1,081
Acreage
14,138 1.00 5.85 542,858 0.31 2.22 2,273 0.72 2.63
# bedrooms
14,047 3.62 1.06 536,148 3.39 1.02 2,266 3.69 0.90
# bathrooms
14,046 2.70 1.00 536,173 2.31 0.86 2,265 2.73 0.93
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Characteristic
Adopters (Third Party) Adopters (System Owner)
Lease v. Own
N Mean
Std Dev
N Mean
Std Dev t-stat p-value
Loan to value
2,887 83 40 6,106 72 39 (12.56)
- Assessed Home value
3,284 474,714 389,037 7,358 506,653 530,422 3.10 0.0019
Square footage
3,284 2,521 1,098 7,358 2,538 1,211 0.68 0.4942
Acreage
3,284 1.0 6.7 7,358 0.8 3.0 (2.15) 0.0318
# bedrooms
3,271 3.7 1.1 7,320 3.7 1.1 (3.53) 0.0004
# bathrooms
3,271 2.7 0.9 7,320 2.7 1.0 (0.06) 0.9487
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percentage
Educational Attainment
5 10 15 20 25 30 Percentage
Household Income
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20 30 40 50 60 70 Less than One Year 1-3 years 3-5 years 5-10 years than 10 years Percentage
Length of Home Ownership
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Property value State Incentives Federal Incentives Environment Energy Independence Saving Money 1 = Most Important 2 3 4 5 6 = Least Important