2005 RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE MARKET UPDATE 2010 - - PDF document

3/10/2010 1

RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE MARKET UPDATE 2010 2010

Van Rose, MIRM Van Rose, MIRM President, Rose and President, Rose and Womble Womble New Homes New Homes

2005 2007 2009

15 Year Closing 15 Year Closing New Construction & Resale History New Construction & Resale History

20,000 25,000 30,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Source:

5,000 10,000 15,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

1,000 2,000 3,000

Existing Homes New Construction

$323,152

$300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000

Hampton Roads Average Hampton Roads Average Closing Prices Closing Prices

$75k $232,152 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Existing Home New Construction

Source:

$18k

3/10/2010 2 Market Share for Existing Homes Market Share for Existing Homes Detached Sales by Price Range Detached Sales by Price Range

1787 1690 1311 1258

75% 100% $400,000+ $300K to $400K

16% 12% 10% 14%

Source:

4868 4291 4485 3712

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000

33% 39% 36% 40%

Market Share for New Construction Market Share for New Construction Detached Sales by Price Range Detached Sales by Price Range

281 227 257 191

75% 100% $500,000+ $400K to $500K

18% 17% 12% 14%

Source:

657 441 566 556

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $500K $300K to $400K <$300,000

36% 29% 34% 40%

Market Share for Existing Homes Market Share for Existing Homes Attached Sales by Price Range Attached Sales by Price Range

948 869 267 209

75% 100% $300,000+ $200K to $300K

28% 8% 5% 24%

Source:

196 2090 2335 98

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $300K $100K to $200K <$100,000

3% 61% 65% 6%

Market Share for New Construction Market Share for New Construction Attached Sales by Price Range Attached Sales by Price Range

148 128 78 62

75% 100% $400,000+ $300K to $400K

12% 7% 6% 13%

Source:

270 730 525 252

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000

21% 60% 53% 28%

New Construction Product Mix New Construction Product Mix 2009 Closings 2009 Closings

25% 3%

Single Family Detached Multi-Story Condo

Source:

57% 2% 7% 5% 11% 1%

Condo Multi-Plex Condo Townhome/ Duplex

Average Market Time Average Market Time Existing Homes Existing Homes

87 69 77 76 80 78 72 69 61 66 84 60 70 80 90 100 Market

Source:

46 36 27 28 48 10 20 30 40 50

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Days on

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12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000

Hampton Roads Residential Inventory Hampton Roads Residential Inventory 2007 to 2009 2007 to 2009

Source:

8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010

Resale 11,091 units 9.4 months supply

Inventory

New Homes 1,289 units 7.1 months supply

Source: *Inventory on 03/03/10. Based on sales pace of last 6 months

Hampton Roads Residential Inventory by Price Range

1,231 254 1,401 632 199

75% 100% $500,000+ $400K to $500K 12% 11% 20% 15% 6%

Source:

4,736 162 3,091 366 308

0% 25% 50%

Existing Homes New Construction

$300K to $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000 43% 28% 24% 13% 28%

LET’S JUST TALK TALK ABOUT IT…. 11 MILLION 11 MILLION HOMEOWNERS ARE HOMEOWNERS ARE UNDERWATER!! UNDERWATER!!

Source: CNN Money

3/10/2010 4

7 MILLION 7 MILLION FORECLOSURES FORECLOSURES STILL TO COME!! STILL TO COME!!

Source: Amherst Securities Group

1.35 YEARS TO 1.35 YEARS TO SELL CURRENT SELL CURRENT FORECLOSURE FORECLOSURE INVENTORY INVENTORY

Source: Amherst Securities Group

294 342 261 356 326 375 318 305 325 285 285 248

250 300 350 400 20% 25% 30% 35%

Hampton Roads Short Sale/Foreclosure Market Share

Source:

36 44 32 50 59 63 71 99 96 141 133 119 134 160 163 166 160 176 198

50 100 150 200

Jul-07 Oct Jan-08 Apr Jul Oct Jan-09 Apr Jul Oct Jan-10

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Total Short Sale/ Foreclosure Closings % Total Closings

Foreclosures by City/County

21% 9% 14% 10% Chesapeake Hampton Newport News

Source:

16% 11% 6% 13% Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach All Other Areas

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$200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000

Existing Home Average Closing Prices Existing Home Average Closing Prices Versus Standard Appreciation Versus Standard Appreciation

$100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Existing Home Average Price 4% Appreciation $350,000 $400,000 $450,000

New Construction Average Closing Prices New Construction Average Closing Prices Versus Standard Appreciation Versus Standard Appreciation

$150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 New Construction Average Price 4% Appreciation

12% 14% 16% 18%

Interest Rates will Rise Interest Rates will Rise

4% 6% 8% 10% 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 30-Yr Fixed Avg

Source: Freddie Mac

Hampton Roads Hampton Roads Employment to Permit Ratio Employment to Permit Ratio

5 000 10,000 15,000 20,000 0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0

• 15,000
• 10,000
• 5,000

5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 Change in Employment Permits Issued E/P Ratio

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Census Bureau (Permits)- 2009 #'s are Preliminary

IF YOU IF YOU BUILD IT… BUILD IT… THEY WILL THEY WILL COME COME

33 $368,048

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# 5

45 $237,438

# 4 Riverwalk Townes

46 $252,617

# 3

62 $382,456

# 2

83 $180,506

# 1

92 $208,695 AND THE AND THE Hampton Roads

Top 5 Builders

WINNERS WINNERS ARE…….. ARE……..

Source:

3/10/2010 7

# 5

93

# 4

98

# 3

133

# 2

154

# 1

233