Prepared zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA by Dr. - - PDF document

Prepared zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

for Presentation

to ISMOR-1998 by Dr. Robert zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

L

Helmbold 30 June 1998 US Army Concepts Analysis Agency 8120 Woodmont Avenue Bethesda, MD 20814-2797 COM: 301-897-0749 EMail: heImbold@caa.army.mil

To examine trends in land combat that have persisted over extended periods of time (decades or centuries).

.

Make maximum use zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• f

existing US Army Concept Analysis Agency (CAA) studies and data bases. Perform original analyses as necessary.

Focus on land combat operations: Rates of advance Battle durations Personnel strengths and attrition Evolution of US Army force structure Lanchester parameter values Frequency and severity of wars

2

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Long-Term Trends in zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars

For Interstate Wars:

• I. For the period zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

1820.1979: about 0.7 interstate war starts per year.

• a. Interstate

war starts

• ccurred as a Poisson

process nt P steady average rate of

• b. Total battle deaths in

interstate wars tended to increase slightly.

• C. Durations zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
• f

intcrstm

wars tended to dccrcase slightly.

• d. Total partiripstian in interstate wars tcndud to incrcsrf at *bout the same rate

e . The ratio

• ftotal battle dcaths to total participation tended to decline, bmt total

world population. battle deaths tended to incrcase with incnnsing total participation.

• 2. Projections for the period 2000-2010:
• 8. Expect about 7 (4 to 10) interstate n'ars to start zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

in this period.

• b. Expect the total battle deaths of the deadliest interstate war to bc about 200,000
• C. Expect the duration ofthe longest interstate v a r to be about 3 years (

I S

to 10 (100,000 to 600.000).

years).

• d. Expect to I O t l l participation
• fthc largrst intcritslc war to br about 13,000,000

kpm (5.000,OOO to 50.000.000 kpml.

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Interstate Wars-Poisson Distribution Fit Obs'd number of Theoretical number of zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

• N

years WIN war starts years WIN war starts

1

2 3

4

• ver 4

80 52 22 5

1

78.7 55.8 19.8 4.7 0.8 0.1

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Interstate Wars-Total Battle Deaths

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1910

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Interstate Wars-Ratio of Total Battle Deaths to Total Particbation Versus Year War Started zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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[Interstate Wars-Total Battle Deaths Versus Total Particioationh

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IInterstate Wars-Proiected Probabilitv of Not More Than 1

e %

• 1-1-

Interstate Wars-Projected Probability That Total Battle Deaths in the Deadliest Interstate War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than D

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Interstate Wars-Projected Probability That the Longest zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

1

[Interstate War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than Y I

OB zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 02

100

Interstate Wars-Projected Probability That Total Participation in the Largest Interstate War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than P

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8

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I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

Severity of civil wars zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

For

Civil Wars:

• 1. For the period 1820-1979:

average rate, which currently is about 1 civil war stnrts per year. world population a . Civil war starts occurred as P Poisson process, but at a gradually increasing

• b. Total battle deaths in civil wars tended to increase at about thc same rate as

c

Durations of civil wars tended to decrease.

d . Total participation in

civil wars tended to be nearly constant. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA e . The ratio of total battle deaths to total participation tended to increase at about the same rate as world population, and total batlle deaths tended to increase with increasing total participation.

• 2. Projections for the period 2000-2010:
• a. Expect about 10 (7 to 13) civil wars to start in

this period.

• b. Erpea

the total battle deaths of the dudliest civil War to be about 300.000

• P. Expeet the duration of the longest civil war to be about 8 years (2.5 to zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

20 years). d . Expen

to total participation of thc largest civil war l o be ahout 10,000,000 kpm (100.000 to 600,OOO). (3,000,000 to 40,000,000 kpm).

A

ICivil Wars--Cumulative Number of Wars Since 1820)

120

;

100

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1

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Obs'd number of years w/N war starts Theoretical number of years w/N war starts

84 83.6 56 53.1 12 18.0 6 4.3 2 0.8

• ver 4

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(Civil Wars-Total Particiuation Versus Year War Started1

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• Versus Year War Started

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1

Civil Wars in the Period 2000-2010

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I Civil Wars-Projected Probability That Total Battle Deaths i n the 1 (Bloodiest Civil War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than D I

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Civil Wars-Projected Probability That Total Participation in the Largest Civil War of the Period 2000-2010 Will Be Less Than P

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