Ensuring consistency between LSE load forecasts for CRR and Resource - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

California Independent System Operator Corporation

Ensuring consistency between LSE load forecasts for CRR and Resource Adequacy (RA) purposes

Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007 Saurabh Monga Market Operations - CRR Team

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 2

CRR Monthly Allocation Process

Participants Monthly Eligible Quantity based on

Forecasted Load.

Participants upload hourly forecasted load into CRR

system during the start of monthly process.

CAISO intends to verify the submitted load with the

RA load forecasts submitted to CPUC.

Entities have an incentive to show a lower forecast

to the CEC for RA process so that they have to procure less capacity.

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 3

Resource Adequacy Process

• Year Ahead Process:

– CPUC jurisdiction entities provide CEC with load data for all 12 months of the upcoming year in April month of the current year. – During this process, CEC makes adjustments to the load data and provides each entity with its coincident peak target for the annual RA showing process. – Entities use this data for their annual RA showing. – Under new legislature, Non Jurisdiction entities will provide non coincident peak data for each month of the upcoming year.

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 4

Resource Adequacy Process

Month Ahead Process:

– 60 days ahead of the compliance month, entities submit forecasted load data to CEC. – Year ahead numbers are the starting point of the monthly RA process and are adjusted for any possible load migration. – Non jurisdiction entities do not participate in the month ahead RA process.

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 5

CAISO’s proposal for load forecast verification

CAISO proposes to use the Month ahead RA load forecasts of

CPUC jurisdiction entities for verifying the submitted load data.

For non CPUC entities, CAISO plans on using the Year ahead

forecasts as a starting point for verification process.

CAISO’s proposal is based on the following items:

– Data: CEC intends to provide CAISO non coincident peak for each entity. – Methodology: All CPUC jurisdiction entities use a common CPUC endorsed forecasting methodology. – Timing: CAISO can obtain this data from the CEC in a timely manner as shown on next slide.

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 6

Timing of the process

Month ‘i’ Process SFTs for Month ‘i’ 60 Days LSEs submit forecasted load to CAISO CRR system through MUI For Month ‘i’ CEC sends report to CAISO per LSE Month ‘i’-1 Month ‘i’-2 45 days LSEs submit monthly peak data to CEC for RA purposes for month ‘i’ CEC makes adjustments to data and prepares final RA showing targets

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 7

Verifying Off Peak hours load forecasts

CEC does not have a Time Of Use element to the RA

process.

CAISO proposes to use a scaling factor to calculate

the Off peak data from RA forecast data.

California Independent System Operator Corporation

CAISO / MPD CRR Stakeholder Meeting June 14, 2007, page 8

Questions / Comments