Katy Stokes Demographic Methods Centre, ONS NTTS Conference, March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Katy Stokes Demographic Methods Centre, ONS NTTS Conference, March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 07, 2023 112 likes •201 views

Measuring uncertainty in ONS population estimates: capturing variability in statistics from combinations of census, administrative and survey sources Katy Stokes Demographic Methods Centre, ONS NTTS Conference, March 2015 Uncertainty measures

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Measuring uncertainty in ONS population estimates: capturing variability in statistics from combinations

  • f census, administrative and survey sources

Katy Stokes Demographic Methods Centre, ONS NTTS Conference, March 2015

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Purpose: to develop a statistical measure of uncertainty associated with local authority mid- year population estimates. Approach:

  • mirror the mid-year estimates in their basic

structure – Cohort Component Method

  • simulations-based to measure variability around

the mid-year population estimates Uncertainty measures

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Assume no variance

Uncertainty estimates = Bootstrapping to create 1,000 simulations to derive 95% CIs for MYEs

Cohort component method for population estimates

Population for year x Births – Deaths + Minor adjustments International migration Internal migration Population for year x+1

+ +

  • +
  • =
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Bootstrapping International Immigration

International Passenger Survey (IPS) National Estimate Workers Students Others UK Returners MWS HESA/BIS/WAG PRDS Census 348 Local Authority estimates of international immigrants

Mid Year Estimates = Uncertainty estimates =

1,000 simulations from IPS 1,000 simulated admin counts for each migrant type in each LA Apply admin-based proportions to IPS estimate for each migrant type to derive counts

  • f each migrant type in each LA

1,000 Worker counts 1,000 Student counts 1,000 ‘Other’ counts 1,000 UK Returner counts 1,000 simulated international immigrant counts for each LA Sum these to produce 1,000 LA

  • totals. 26th and 975th ranked values

provide uncertainty interval

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LA level estimates – international immigration

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Summary of uncertainty measures (as % of MYE)

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Methods and Techniques

  • Bootstrapping
  • Parametric
  • Non parametric
  • Imputation
  • Regression
  • Poisson regression

Software used

  • SAS and Stata

Key points

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Questions?

for further information: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide- method/method-quality/imps/latest- news/uncertainty-in-la-mypes/index.html

  • r contact:

methodology@ons.gsi.gov.uk