Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016 S. Grant & B. MacDonald Fisheries and Oceans Pches et Ocans FRAFS FORUM meeting Canada Canada March 8 2016 1 Late June Early Stuart to Early-July Early Stuart

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Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts:

Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016

  • S. Grant & B. MacDonald

FRAFS FORUM meeting March 8 2016

Fisheries and Oceans Pêches et Océans Canada Canada

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Early Stuart

Early Stuart

Early Summer

Bowron Fennell Gates Nadina Pitt Scotch Seymour 2

Early Shuswap Miscellaneous Taseko Miscellaneous** Chilliwack miscellaneous Nahatlach miscellaneous North Thompson River Miscellaneous North Thompson Tributaries Miscellaneous Widgeon miscellaneous Non-Shuswap miscellaneous

Summer

Chilko Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Raft Harrison

Late

Cultus Late Shuswap (Adams River)

Portage Weaver Birkenhead

Late –June to Early-July Late-July to Early-Aug Early-to- Mid-Aug. Mid-Aug.

Fraser Timing

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Age of Maturity # Adult Spawners Survival

Brood Year Escapement

Factors influencing total returns

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Marine 2 Winters Freshwater 2 Winters

May-June 2014

Age of Maturity

April-May 2014 Brood Year July-Oct 2012 July-Oct 2016 April-May 2013 First Winter 2015 Second Winter 2016 June-October 2014

Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds Return: 4 yrs

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Brood Year Escapement: Index of the Number of Eggs

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smolts effective female spawners Chilko: 25% 57%

Four Year Old Brood Year: 2012

Harrison: 9%

# Adult Spawners

Late Stuart: 9% Stellako: 14% Chilliwack: 22% Pitt: 11% 40% 1% 2%

Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart

6,800

Early Summer Bowron

30

Fennell

700

Gates

6,900

Nadina

16,800

Pitt

41,400

Scotch

700

Seymour

300

  • Misc. (Chilliwack)

78,800

Summer Chilko j

11.4 M

Quesnel

100

Late Stuart

31,800

Stellako

50,600

Harrison

32,900

Raft

1,700

Late Cultus

63,600

Late Shuswap

10

Portage

10

Weaver

400

Birkenhead

2,500

2012 Brood Year (Age-4)

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smolts effective female spawners Chilko: 53% 69%

Five Year Old Brood Year: 2011

Harrison: 9% (three year olds)

# Adult Spawners

11% 20% 0%

Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart 200 Early Summer Bowron 2,000 Fennell 4,500 Gates 26,400 Nadina 1,200 Pitt 30,400 Scotch 12,500 Seymour 8,000

  • Misc. (Chilliwack)

2,500 Summer Chilko j 43.2 M Quesnel 17,000 Late Stuart 800 Stellako 26,000 Harrison 78,000 Raft 4,400 Late Cultus 119,800 Late Shuswap 46,000 Portage 300 Weaver 24,500 Birkenhead 92,400 2011 Brood Year (Age-5)

Birkenhead: 11%

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200 2,000 4,500 26,400 1,200 30,400 12,500 8,000 2,500 43.2 M 17,000 800 26,000 78,000 4,400 119,800 46,000 300 24,500 92,400 2011 Brood Year (Age-5)

Chilko Harrison Late Stuart Stellako Chilliwack Pitt

Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart

6,800

Early Summer Bowron

30

Fennell

700

Gates

6,900

Nadina

16,800

Pitt

41,400

Scotch

700

Seymour

300

  • Misc. (Chilliwack)

78,800

Summer Chilko j

11.4 M

Quesnel

100

Late Stuart

31,800

Stellako

50,600

Harrison

32,900

Raft

1,700

Late Cultus

63,600

Late Shuswap

10

Portage

10

Weaver

400

Birkenhead

2,500

2012 Brood Year (Age-4)

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200 2,000 4,500 26,400 1,200 30,400 12,500 8,000 2,500 43.2 M 17,000 800 26,000 78,000 4,400 119,800 46,000 300 24,500 92,400 2011 Brood Year (Age-5) Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart

6,800

Early Summer Bowron

30

Fennell

700

Gates

6,900

Nadina

16,800

Pitt

41,400

Scotch

700

Seymour

300

  • Misc. (Chilliwack)

78,800

Summer Chilko j

11.4 M

Quesnel

100

Late Stuart

31,800

Stellako

50,600

Harrison

32,900

Raft

1,700

Late Cultus

63,600

Late Shuswap

10

Portage

10

Weaver

400

Birkenhead

2,500

2012 Brood Year (Age-4) 9

Bowron Pitt Quesnel Weaver Birkenhead Five Year Olds Late Shuswap Scotch Seymour

100 17,000

Quesnel

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100 EFS (2012) 17 ,000 EFS (2011) = 1,000 Recruits = 170,000 Recruits X 0.85 X 10 R/EFS = 850 age-4 X 10 R/EFS X 0.15 =22,500 age-5 2016 Returns = 26,000 TOTAL = 97% age-5

(CAVEAT: NOT THE FORECAST JUST AN EXAMPLE OF THE CALCULATION)

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Survival: Part 1

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Run timing group

Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a

Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart

13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89,000

Early Summer

120,000 217,000 447,000 1,003,000 2,703,000

Bowron

1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000

Fennell

6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000

Gates

24,000 40,000 76,000 138,000 231,000

Nadina

24,000 45,000 90,000 179,000 331,000

Pitt

42,000 60,000 90,000 147,000 212,000

Scotch

300 2,000 12,000 89,000 698,000

Seymour

100 400 1,000 3,000

Misc (Early Shuswap)e

2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000

Misc (Taseko)e

100 400 1,000 1,000 2,000

Misc (Chilliwack)

17,000 46,000 138,000 378,000 1,101,000

Misc (Nahatlatch) f

4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000

Summer

647,000 1,004,000 1,695,000 2,984,000 5,031,000

Chilko g

459,000 658,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000

Quesnel

6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000

Late Stuart

42,000 86,000 192,000 427,000 880,000

Stellako

86,000 144,000 256,000 454,000 761,000

Misc (Harrison) h & i

40,000 85,000 194,000 447,000 965,000

Raft h

11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000

Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j

600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000

Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j

1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000

Misc (Widgeon) k

1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000

Late

41,000 65,000 111,000 205,000 368,000

Cultus g

1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000

**Late Shuswap

100 4,000 25,000 76,000

Portage

200 400 1,000 2,000

Weaver

2,000 4,000 8,000 17,000 31,000

xxBirkenhead

30,000 45,000 68,000 105,000 158,000

Misc non-Shuswap k

8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000

TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON

821,000 1,308,000 2,289,000 4,251,000 8,191,000

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(10% p-level) (90% p-level)

2015 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts

(25% p-level) (75% p-level)

Return-Ricker Model Forecast Standardized Ricker Residuals

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Run timing group Forecast Model b

Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a

Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58,000 108,000 Early Summer 236,000 424,000 837,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 Gates Larkin 46,000 79,000 141,000 280,000 502,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65,000 126,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79,000 120,000 190,000 Scotch Ricker 48,000 85,000 185,000 430,000 845,000 Seymour Ricker 41,000 68,000 140,000 274,000 529,000 Misc (EShu) c

RS (Scotch/Seymour)

33,000 74,000 164,000 258,000 459,000 Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4, 000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108,000 197,000 367,000 684,000 1,421,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54,000 118,000 245,000 Stellako Larkin 186,000 261,000 390,000 552,000 823,000 Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255,000 573,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs)f & g

R/S (Raft/Fennell)

1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g

R/S (Raft/Fennell)

5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419,000 703,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168,000 293,000 517,000 924,000 1,758,000 Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 Weaver MRS 110,000 189,000 346,000 635,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead

Ricker (Ei)+Sibling

120,000 183,000 299,000 513,000 879,000 Misc Lillooet-Harrisoni R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60,000 107,000 189,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000

35% Chilko 21% Harrison 15% Shuswap (Early + Late) Early Shuswap

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WE HAVE A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 2016 FORECAST

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HIGHER PROPORTION OF FIVE YEAR OLDS IN 2016 FOR SOME STOCKS

VERY POOR SURVIVAL OF FOUR YEAR OLDS IN 2015 FOR MANY STOCKS

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Five

Sibling Models

Four Three

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Birkenhead Weaver Quesnel 100 (4,500) 400 (18,300) 2012: Cyc Avg: 2011: 24,500 2011 4 yr old Survival Very Poor EXTREMELY Poor

Most returning as five year olds in 2016 AND

Since four year old survival in 2015 was poor expect poor five year old survival in 2016

17 ,000 2,500 (32,300) 92,400 Very Poor

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Quesnel Birkenhead Weaver

Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 14,000 Total: 15,000 Ricker-cyc Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 63,000 Total: 63,000 2016 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 52,000 Total: 68,000 2016 Ricker-Ei Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 146,000 Total: 162,000 2016 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 3,000 Total: 8,000 2016 MRS Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 67 ,000 Total: 72,000

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Harrison Sockeye

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0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Escapement (EFS) Year

average: 6,000 EFS average: 150,000 EFS 78K 33K

Harrison Escapement

57% age-4 25% age-3 2012 2013

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Harrison

2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 48,000 Total: 176,000 2016 Ricker-Ei Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 165,000 Total: 359,000

Very Poor Survival of three year olds in 2015

Harrison River

Therefore, we expect very poor survival

  • f their four year old siblings in 2016
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Shuswap Stocks (Larkin Model)

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300 (4,500) 10 (32,300) 600 (18,300) 2012: Cyc Avg: 2011: 46,000 12,500 8,000 2011 4 yr old Survival Delayed Density Delayed Density Delayed Density

Most returning as five year olds in 2016 AND

Since four year old survival in 2015 was predicted better with Larkin model we used that model in 2016

2010: 3.1 M 273,900 287 ,500 Scotch Late Shuswap Seymour

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2016 Larkin Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 20 Total: 12,000 2016 Ricker Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 20 Total: 10,000 Scotch 2016 Larkin Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 30 Total: 400 2016 Ricker Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 2,000 Total: 5,000 2016 Larkin Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 4,000 Total: 4,000 2016 Ricker-cyc Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 9,000 Total: 9,000 Seymour Late Shuswap

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50%

2015 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts

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75% 90% 10% Early Summer

Summer

Early Stuart

800K 8 M 2.3 M

Late

13 K – 89 K (<1% of total forecast) 120 K – 2.7 M (20% of total forecast) 640K – 5 M (74% of total forecast) 41 K – 366K (5% of total forecast)

25%

1.3 M 4 M

Chilko: 44% Harrison: 8% LStuart: 8% Stellako: 11% Birkenhead: 3% Chilliwack: 6%

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000

50p: 36 K 50p: 447 K 50p: 1.7 M 50p: 111 K

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Survival: Part II

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Loge (Recruits/Smolt)

Brood Year

2009 Returns (2007 OEY) 2015 Returns (2013 OEY)

CHILKO MARINE SURVIVAL

Past 18 years: ≤ average

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YEAR

<10% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 1998

4 6 7 11 19

1999

3 4 5 8 15

2000

1 2 4 8 NA

2001

4 7 13 25 NA

2002

5 8 13 22 NA

2003

2 3 3 6 10

2004

2 3 3 5 9

2005

5 9 16 30 53

2006

6 10 17 32 57

2007

2 4 6 11 20

2008

1 2 3 4 7

2009

4 6 11 19 38

2010

5 8 14 24 41

2011

2 3 5 9 15

2012

1 1 2 4 7

2013

2 3 5 9 16

2014

7 13 23 41 72

2015

2 4 7 13 24

FORECAST PROBABILITY LEVEL YEAR

<10% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 1998

4 6 7 11 19

1999

3 4 5 8 15

2000

1 2 4 8 NA

2001

4 7 13 25 NA

2002

5 8 13 22 NA

2003

2 3 3 6 10

2004

2 3 3 5 9

2005

5 9 16 30 53

2006

6 10 17 32 57

2007

2 4 6 11 20

2008

1 2 3 4 7

2009

4 6 11 19 38

2010

5 8 14 24 41

2011

2 3 5 9 15

2012

1 1 2 4 7

2013

2 3 5 9 16

2014

7 13 23 41 72

2015

2 4 7 13 24

FORECAST PROBABILITY LEVEL

Only 2010 Was > 50% p-level In past 11 years

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Run timing group

Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a

Stocks

10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart

13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89,000

Early Summer

120,000 217,000 447,000 1,003,000 2,703,000

Bowron

1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000

Fennell

6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000

Gates

24,000 40,000 76,000 138,000 231,000

Nadina

24,000 45,000 90,000 179,000 331,000

Pitt

42,000 60,000 90,000 147,000 212,000

Scotch

300 2,000 12,000 89,000 698,000

Seymour

100 400 1,000 3,000

Misc (Early Shuswap)e

2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000

Misc (Taseko)e

100 400 1,000 1,000 2,000

Misc (Chilliwack)

17,000 46,000 138,000 378,000 1,101,000

Misc (Nahatlatch) f

4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000

Summer

647,000 1,004,000 1,695,000 2,984,000 5,031,000

Chilko g

459,000 658,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000

Quesnel

6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000

Late Stuart

42,000 86,000 192,000 427,000 880,000

Stellako

86,000 144,000 256,000 454,000 761,000

Misc (Harrison) h & i

40,000 85,000 194,000 447,000 965,000

Raft h

11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000

Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j

600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000

Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j

1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000

Misc (Widgeon) k

1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000

Late

41,000 65,000 111,000 205,000 368,000

Cultus g

1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000

**Late Shuswap

100 4,000 25,000 76,000

Portage

200 400 1,000 2,000

Weaver

2,000 4,000 8,000 17,000 31,000

xxBirkenhead

30,000 45,000 68,000 105,000 158,000

Misc non-Shuswap k

8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000

TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON

821,000 1,308,000 2,289,000 4,251,000 8,191,000

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Request for Stock Information

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Past 12 out of 15 years: < average

2005 Brood Year (2009 Returns)

Standardized Ricker Residuals Current Status: Red Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by declines in abundance and productivity; cyclic CU no abundance benchmarks)

Early Stu Stuart: T Takl kla-Tremb embleu eur-Early Stu Stu

2011 BY (2014 Ret)

Number of Years Effective Total Spawners below 1,000 in last 12 = 1

50%p: 36,000

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Past 13 out of 15 years: < average

2005 Brood Year (2009 Returns)

Standardized Ricker Residuals

Bowron: ron: B Bowron

  • n-ES

Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 4 Current Status: Red Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by low abundance below LB (4,000 ETS); declines in abundance & productivity; low absolute abundance)

50%p: 4,000

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Tase seko:

  • : T

Tase seko ko-ES

Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 8 Current Status: Red Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by declines in abundance; flagged as fair data quality so provisional status)

INDEX OF ABUNDANCE ONLY 50%p: 1,000

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Ques esnel el

Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 1 Current Status: Red/Amber Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by abundance and productivity declines; cyclic CU so no benchmarks; cyclic patterns)

50%p: 4,000

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Past 8 out of 15 years: < average

2005 Brood Year (2009 Returns)

Standardized Ricker Residuals

Raf aft

Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 0

2011 BY (2014 Ret)

Current Status: Amber Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (driven by ETS relative to LB of 6,000 was AMBER)

50%p: 26K

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Lat Lates

Cultus 50%p 2016: 4,000 (hatchery origin) (cycle average: 22,000) Lower Benchmark: 12,000 wild effective total spawners

Current Status: RED Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by all metrics being red; LB: 12,000 ETS; plus low absolute abundance)

Lates at 50% p-level: 111K (cyc avg: 700K)

Current Status: AMBER Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by abundance being amber and absolute abundance good)

Weaver 50%p 2016: 8,000 (cycle average: 345,000) Lower Benchmark: 14,000 wild effective total spawners Late Shuswap 50%p 2016: 4,000 (cycle average: 29,000) Lower Benchmark: NA wild effective total spawners

Current Status: GREEN Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by increasing abundance and no systematic trends in productivity)

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Returns unlikely to be very large in 2016: Range from 800K to 2.3 K (10% to 50% p-level) Poor 5 year old survival expected for a number of stocks and adjusted in forecast:

  • Quesnel

Sibling

  • Weaver

Sibling

  • Birkenhead

Sibling

  • Harrison (4 yr olds)

Sibling

  • Shuswap (Scotch, Seymour, Late) Larkin

Even with adjustments to survival of older ages 5 year old proportions very high for some stocks Although 5 yr olds only 20% of total forecast

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DFO CSAS Science Response

Name Affiliation Sue Grant Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Bronwyn MacDonald Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Mike Lapointe Pacific Salmon Commission Catherine Michielsens Pacific Salmon Commission Keri Benner Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Timber Whitehouse Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Ann-Marie Huang Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Mike Hawkshaw Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Les Jantz Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Bob Conrad Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission Mike Staley IAS Ltd. Kelsey Campbell A-Tlegay Fisheries Society Aaron Dufault Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Jennifer Nener Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific

Pre-press release end in next week will be distributed broadly Translated and posted on DFO CSAS site in 2-3 months

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