Overview of HASDM and JB2008 W. Kent Tobiska http://SpaceWx.com - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of HASDM and JB2008 W. Kent Tobiska http://SpaceWx.com - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of HASDM and JB2008 W. Kent Tobiska http://SpaceWx.com W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net> 1 Basis for HASDM http://SpaceWx.com W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net> 2 High Accuracy Satellite Drag

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http://SpaceWx.com 1

  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Overview of HASDM and JB2008

  • W. Kent Tobiska
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http://SpaceWx.com 2

  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Basis for HASDM

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM)

HASDM is a system run at USAF Space Command CSpOC (VAFB)

HASDM V1 – 2001 to 2011 used J71 with F10 and Ap for -48 hours to +72 hours HASDM V2 – 2012 to present uses version of JB2008 with S10, M10, Y10, F10, Ap, and Dst (SET provided) for -48 hours to +144 hours 3 conceptual modules in HASDM

◗

JB2008 core (called JBH09) providing current epoch and forecasts to 72 hours

◗

Space Surveillance Network (SSN) observations of ~90 calibration satellites

◗

Dynamic Calibration of the Atmosphere (DCA) code acting as a data assimilation Kalman filtering method to incorporate derived densities from

  • bservations into modeled background

HASDM provides thermospheric densities used for creating NORAD TLE catalog and for assessing debris/active satellite conjunctions

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net> Credit: Tobiska

JB2008 CIRA08

Pedigree of models

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Jacchia 1971 (CIRA 1972)

Basis for MET v2, HASDM, JB2006, JB2008

All 4 have been modified from the original Jacchia version

Provides modeled densities

Between 25-75 km Between 75-120 km Above 120 km Mean reference atmosphere

Computer source code available

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Jacchia 1971 (CIRA 1972)

Main elements of Jacchia model Thermospheric and exospheric temperatures are Diffusive equilibrium composition (N2, O, O2, Ar, He) Variations (solar cycle, diurnal, geomagnetic, semi- annual, seasonal latitudinal in lower thermosphere, seasonal latitudinal with He, gravity waves)

(4-29)

T(z) = T

∞ - (T ∞ - T0)e−σ (z−z0 ) (4-31)

T

∞ = 379 + 3.24F 10.7 +1.3(F 10.7 − F 10.7)

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Jacchia 1971 (CIRA 1972)

Credit: Jacchia

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Jacchia 1971 (CIRA 1972)

Credit: Jacchia

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Historical Density Model Errors at 350 km (1-s)

JB2006 JB2006 JB2008 Credit: F. Marcos

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

J71 1999 Unmodeled r Error

00011 Vanguard 2 Sphere - DB/Bave Values - 560 km

  • 125
  • 100
  • 75
  • 50
  • 25

25 50 75 100 125 99.0 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.0

Year DB/BAve %

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Solar Flux F10.7 DRho = DB 22.4 % STD

Credit: B. Bowman

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Jacchia-Bowman 2008 thermospheric density model

§

Motivation: significantly reduce 1-s error

§

Improvements

1) uses the CIRA72 (Jacchia 71) model diffusion equations 2) new solar indices in the extreme and far ultraviolet wavelengths 3) new exospheric temperature and semiannual density equations 4) temperature correction equations for diurnal and latitudinal effects 5) density correction factors at high altitude (1500- 4000 km) 6) Dst index used for high latitude heating modeling

§

Bowman et al., AIAA-2008-6438_JB2008_Model.pdf (see JB2008 link http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~JB2008/)

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Jacchia-Bowman 2008

§ JB2008 is validated through comparisons of accurate daily density drag data that are previously computed for numerous satellites § For the 400 km altitude, the Jacchia 1971 18% standard deviation is reduced to 12% during periods of low geomagnetic storm activity

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Solar and geomagnetic drivers to the atmosphere

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

S10 – 74% of the energy is here

Solar EUV heating is specific to l and z

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Altitude of unit optical depth for photoabsorption

Motivation for solar indices … capture photoabsorption, including SRC in FUV, for observation-based indices

S10 Xb10 M10 Lya MgII Y10 Credit: M.H. Rees

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

JB2008 Thermosphere Overview – Ops

Daily operational indices selected

  • JB2008 additionally uses 81-day center smoothed indices

Credit: ISO 14222

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>
  • Xb10 is an index to the daily background

X-ray flux, based on the minimum hourly value for that day (which is calculated from the lower decile of the 1-minute X- Ray flux in that hour)

  • Xhf is the median flux within an hour

above Xb10

  • Xb10 is used along with Lyman-a in

creating the Y10 index while Xhf is used in the Anemomilos Dst algorithm to create the derived velocity of solar ejecta

Xb10 and Xhf shown for October-November 2003.

X-ray background (Xb10) and flare (Xhf) indices

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

JB2008 Solar Indices/Proxies example

Daily operational indices selection criteria

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Solar models and data

IS 21348:2007

Title: Process for determining solar irradiances Heritage: developed by ISO TC20/SC14/WG4 Provides process to determining solar irradiances

Product type definition - measurements, reference spectra, empirical models, physics-based models, proxies Solar spectral categories - TSI and gamma rays through radio wavelengths Compliance criteria - reporting, documenting, publishing, archiving, certification Models (e.g. SIP) and data provided separately

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Solar EUV models & data

Solar measurements

rockets, AE-E, SOHO, TIMED*, SDO*

Solar models

SERF1 (EUV81), Nusinov, SERF2, EUV91, EUV97, NRLEUV, HEUVAC, SRPM, SIP*(SOLAR2000/SOLARFLARE/VUV2002)

Solar proxies

F10.7*, E10.7*, S10.7*, M10.7*, Y10.7*, Rz

*IS 21348:2007 compliant

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Geomagnetic proxies

Ap / Kp

Kp is the planetary index for geomagnetic activity Calculated as a weighted average

  • f K-indices from a network of

geomagnetic observatories Observatories do not report their data in real-time, necessary for an operations center to make the best estimate of this index based

  • n available data

Ap invented to create daily average values from eight 3- hourly ranges

Credit: NOAA

K A NOAA G 1 3 2 7 3 15 4 27 5 48 G1 6 80 G2 7 140 G3 8 240 G4 9 400 G5

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Geomagnetic proxies

Credit: SET

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Real-time Dst used by SET

Credit: SET

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

/Rice

JB2008 Thermosphere – Geomagnetic Storm Drivers

Operational goal achieved: redundant Dst, ±6-days with 1-hour granularity and 1-hour latency

Credit: SET

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Geomagnetic storms during solar cycle decline

◆ Sep 10, 2017 large CME

misses Earth

http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~sam_ops/index.html?

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Anemomilos Forecast Dst

geomagnetic ring current index for satellite drag thermosphere densities

Anemomilos

  • The Greek word for

“windmill”

  • 6-day forecast of hourly

Dst with 1-hour latency

  • It is a data-driven

deterministic algorithm using solar observables to identify geoeffective events

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

JB2008 Indices

Credit: Tobiska

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

JB2008 and HASDM results

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

HASDM-Model density ratio

Credit: B. Bowman

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240

F10B (Ave)

HASDM / MODEL Density Ratio vs F10B (81-day average) during 2001-2007 (400 km)

NRLMSIS J70MOD JB2006 JB2008 MSISLSQ JB06LSQ JB08LSQ J70LSQ ZERO

Density Ratio

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Standard deviation comparison

Credit: B. Bowman

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240

F10B (Ave)

Density STD vs F10B During 2001-2007 ( 400 km )

NRLMSIS J70MOD JB2006 JB2008

Percentage Error

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Average Daily Density Error

Credit: B. Bowman

4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850

Altitude (km)

Average Daily Density Error versus Altitude During 1997-2007

NRLMSIS J70MOD JB2006 JB2008 Poly. (NRLMSIS) Poly. (J70MOD)

  • Poly. (JB2006)
  • Poly. (JB2008)

Percentage Error

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Credit: B. Bowman

Storm- time Density Error compari sons

  • 450
  • 400
  • 350
  • 300
  • 250
  • 200
  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 312 313 314 315 316 317

2004 Storm Geomagnetic Index Dst

1st Storm 1st Storm 1st Storm 1st Storm Recovery Slope 1st Storm 2nd Storm Recovery 2nd 2nd Storm Main 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 312 313 314 315 316 317

2004 Dst w/ Orbit Averaged Density Ratios

Dst ap GRACE HASDM JB2008 MSIS J70

Dst

  • Dst

Rho ratio Day of Year

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

Credit: B. Bowman

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Model STD (%) Average 3-hour ap

Orbit Averaged Model Density Errors

J70 (JB2006) MSIS JB2008 HASDM

Major Moderate Storms Minor

Orbit Average Density Error

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  • W. Kent Tobiska <ktobiska@spacenvironment.net>

JB2008 (code, indices, docts)

http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~JB2008/index.html

Credit: SET