Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes Terrestrial Routes Matching

Sergey Shavkunov

Company TTK

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Presenter Profile

• Dr. Shavkunov jointed to strategic marketing

at Company TTK (TransTeleCom) in 2001. Prior to joint TTK he has written several studies on the Russian market for fiber-optic

• communications. Sergey Shavkunov received
• communications. Sergey Shavkunov received

Ph.D. degree from the Institute of General Physics of Russian Academy of Science in 1989. Sergey Shavkunov Head of International Market Analysis Email: s.shavkunov @ttk.ru Tel: +7 (495) 784-6670

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Table of Contents

Page Time, min 1. Global Capacity Demands 3 1 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers 4 2 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom 5 2 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market 6 1 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market 6 1 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching 7 1 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation 8 1 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects 9 1 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System 10 1 9. Benefits for Global Players 11 - 13 4 Conclusions 14 1 Total 15 min

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• 1. Global Capacity Demand

Global Capacity Demand Trends:

Overall capacity growth rate exceeds 60% despite the global economy recession In 2009 over $2 billion were invested in submarine cables and $3 billion will be done this year Europe – Asia route has the lowest bandwidth Europe – Asia route has the lowest bandwidth

Lit Submarine Capacity by Route International Internet Bandwidth Growth

Source: TeleGeography

3

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• 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers

Growing demand from China and India for direct access to European IXs Higher growth of broadband users in Asia and Europe as well

Eurasia urgently needs more capacity:

4

users in Asia and Europe as well as fast adoption of high-speed fiber access (fiber-to-the-home) Triggering effect of research & educational networks, which move to wavelength level (TEIN 2&3, CAREN) Higher needs for route diversification after several terrible misfortunes of several submarine cables in 2007-2009

Source: TeleGeography Source: Point Topic, 2009

World Broadband Subscribers by Region

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• 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom

Telecommunication industry has been one of the main drivers of BRIC economies during the period of 2005 – 2009, US$ billion Consumption of basic telecom services will continue rapid

Source: Hottelecom

Selected Advanced Markets in 2009:

• USA, $304 billion, + 0.6%
• UK, $94 billion, +2.0%
• Japan, $220 billion, +3.0%

Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Growth Brazil 49 51 53 55 57 4% Russia 22 29 35 41 47 14% India 17 18 21 24 27 10% China 72 83 115 119 124 4% Total 159 181 223 239 254

Consumption of basic telecom services will continue rapid growth in BRIC in next 5 years, million users:

2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014

Mobile users Internet users Broadband users

1544 2738 1366 758 160 553

Source: Business Monitor

+77% +80% +246%

BRIC will require huge amount of new international capacity, Gbps:

Source: TeleGeography

Total growth from 3.7 to 14.0 Tbps or 3.8 times!

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Brazil 720 1 017 1 427 1 996 2 754 3 680 China 1 300 1 917 2 806 4 085 5 545 7 269 Russia 402 548 739 986 1 289 1 625 India 162 275 452 692 1 004 1 364 5

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• 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market

Europe – Asia Capacity by Routes, Gbps

Different options exist to carry global traffic between Europe and Asia, including terrestrial one via Russia (Trans Russia)

6

Source: Yankee Group, TTK

Europe – Asia Revenue by Routes, $million

Capacity demand between Europe and Asia will reach 1.5 Tbps or $500 million in 2015 Demand on terrestrial Trans-Russian route is estimated to be 400 Gbps

• r $150 million

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• 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching

Over 1 billion fiber-km of optical cables installed around the world Long-distance infrastructure accounts for 30% of total fiber length Share of submarine cables is less than 5% of total long-distance infrastructure

7

Cumulative Global Fiber Deployment, million km

5% of total long-distance infrastructure counted in fiber-km Wet and land routes have to be matched to increase global network performance Land backbones became also available for global transit as far as telecom markets have been

• pened for competition

Source: KMI Research, CRU

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• 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation

8

EuraAsia Highway Transit Capabilities, Gbps

100 200 300 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F

Asia CIS Europe

HSCS

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• 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects

Cross-border network capillarity is improving significantly in Asia:

Multiple Russia – China interconnections

9

Source: TTK, China Telecom, Reliance Globalcom

China interconnections Russia – North Korea terrestrial fiber-optic cable Railcom’s fiber-optic cable across Mongolia HSCS Russia – Japan cable Indo – China cable China – Taiwan submarine cable

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• 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System

HSCS provides access to the largest European telecommunication hubs – London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt via Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System was build by NTT Communications and TTK in 2008:

10

London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt via Eurasia Highway terrestrial route Access to fast growing telecom markets of CIS countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belorussia Access to over 1000 PoPs in Russia

HSCS

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9.1 Benefits: Diversity & Latency

Wet and land route matching creates the new market value - multiple diversity and best latency

11

Source: TTK, NTT Communications, China Telecom, China Unicom, Pacnet

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9.2 Benefits: Global Network Security

During latest cuts of global submarine cables in January – February 2008, PCCW Global successfully managed risks due diversified network built after Taiwan earthquake in December

• 2006. The company rapidly re-routed its traffic from the Middle

East to Hong Kong and then to Europe through Eurasia Highway land route.

12

Source: PCCW’s Presentation at CAPACITY Middle East & North Africa, Dubai, UAE, February 27-28, 2008

Highway land route.

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9.3 Benefits: New Challenges

Internet Traffic by Applications, 2009

“Web, P2P and streaming traffic account for 78%, the majority of which is video” – TeleGeography Inc. Asia and Europe have the worse indexes by average response time – Internet Traffic

13

response time – Internet Traffic Report. Eurasia Highway route has the shortest distance and less Round-Trip Delay that improves performance of global IP networks (London – Hong Kong): Trans-Russia < 200 ms; Trans-ME & India ~ 260 ms; Trans-US > 300 ms.

Source: Internet Traffic Report, 25 January 2010 Source: TeleGeography

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Conclusions

Submarine and terrestrial global route matching improves network capillarity and gives vast access to global routes for national

• perators
• 14

Regional projects, both wet or land, impact

• n traffic distribution in global networks

Such small projects will be internationally successful, if they create the new market value for global players: wider diversity, better latency, higher security,…

2010

enabling the next generation of networks & services

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Pacifico Convention Plaza Yokohama & InterContinental The Grand Yokohama 11 ~ 14 May 2010 www.suboptic.org The 7th International Conference & Convention

• n Undersea Telecommunications