Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Optimising Global Connectivity by Submarine and Terrestrial Routes Matching

Sergey Shavkunov

Company TTK

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Presenter Profile

• Dr. Shavkunov jointed to strategic marketing

at Company TTK (TransTeleCom) in 2001. Prior to joint TTK he has written several studies on the Russian market for fiber-optic

• communications. Sergey Shavkunov received

Ph.D. degree from the Institute of General Physics of Russian Academy of Science in 1989. Sergey Shavkunov Head of International Market Analysis Email: s.shavkunov @ttk.ru Tel: +7 (495) 784-6670

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Table of Contents

Page Time, min 1. Global Capacity Demands 3 1 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers 4 2 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom 5 2 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market 6 1 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching 7 1 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation 8 1 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects 9 1 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System 10 1 9. Benefits for Global Players 11 - 13 4 Conclusions 14 1 Total 15 min

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• 1. Global Capacity Demand

Global Capacity Demand Trends:

 Overall capacity growth rate exceeds 60% despite the global economy recession  In 2009 over $2 billion were invested in submarine cables and $3 billion will be done this year  Europe – Asia route has the lowest bandwidth

Lit Submarine Capacity by Route International Internet Bandwidth Growth

Source: TeleGeography

3

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• 2. Eurasia Transit Drivers

 Growing demand from China and India for direct access to European IXs  Higher growth of broadband users in Asia and Europe as well as fast adoption of high-speed fiber access (fiber-to-the-home)  Triggering effect of research & educational networks, which move to wavelength level (TEIN 2&3, CAREN)  Higher needs for route diversification after several terrible misfortunes of several submarine cables in 2007-2009

Source: TeleGeography Source: Point Topic, 2009

World Broadband Subscribers by Region

Eurasia urgently needs more capacity:

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• 3. BRIC Impact on Global Telecom

 Telecommunication industry has been one of the main drivers of BRIC economies during the period of 2005 – 2009, US$ billion  Consumption of basic telecom services will continue rapid growth in BRIC in next 5 years, million users:

Source: Hottelecom

Selected Advanced Markets in 2009:

• USA, $304 billion, + 0.6%
• UK, $94 billion, +2.0%
• Japan, $220 billion, +3.0%

2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014

Mobile users Internet users Broadband users

1544 2738 1366 758 160 553

Source: Business Monitor

+77% +80% +246%

 BRIC will require huge amount of new international capacity, Gbps:

Source: TeleGeography

Total growth from 3.7 to 14.0 Tbps or 3.8 times!

Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Growth Brazil 49 51 53 55 57 4% Russia 22 29 35 41 47 14% India 17 18 21 24 27 10% China 72 83 115 119 124 4% Total 159 181 223 239 254

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Brazil 720 1 017 1 427 1 996 2 754 3 680 China 1 300 1 917 2 806 4 085 5 545 7 269 Russia 402 548 739 986 1 289 1 625 India 162 275 452 692 1 004 1 364 5

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• 4. Europe - Asia Capacity Market

Source: Yankee Group, TTK

Europe – Asia Capacity by Routes, Gbps Europe – Asia Revenue by Routes, $million

 Different options exist to carry global traffic between Europe and Asia, including terrestrial one via Russia (Trans Russia)  Capacity demand between Europe and Asia will reach 1.5 Tbps or $500 million in 2015  Demand on terrestrial Trans-Russian route is estimated to be 400 Gbps

• r $150 million

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• 5. Wet & Land Routes Matching

Cumulative Global Fiber Deployment, million km

 Over 1 billion fiber-km of optical cables installed around the world  Long-distance infrastructure accounts for 30% of total fiber length  Share of submarine cables is less than 5% of total long-distance infrastructure counted in fiber-km  Wet and land routes have to be matched to increase global network performance  Land backbones became also available for global transit as far as telecom markets have been

• pened for competition

Source: KMI Research, CRU

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• 6. Terrestrial Routes Implementation

EuraAsia Highway Transit Capabilities, Gbps

100 200 300 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F

Asia CIS Europe

HSCS

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• 7. Impact of Small Regional Projects

Source: TTK, China Telecom, Reliance Globalcom

Cross-border network capillarity is improving significantly in Asia:

 Multiple Russia – China interconnections  Russia – North Korea terrestrial fiber-optic cable  Railcom’s fiber-optic cable across Mongolia  HSCS  Russia – Japan cable  Indo – China cable  China – Taiwan submarine cable

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• 8. Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System

 HSCS provides access to the largest European telecommunication hubs – London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt via Eurasia Highway terrestrial route  Access to fast growing telecom markets of CIS countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Belorussia  Access to over 1000 PoPs in Russia

HSCS

Hokkaido – Sakhalin Cable System was build by NTT Communications and TTK in 2008:

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9.1 Benefits: Diversity & Latency

Wet and land route matching creates the new market value - multiple diversity and best latency

Source: TTK, NTT Communications, China Telecom, China Unicom, Pacnet

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9.2 Benefits: Global Network Security

Source: PCCW’s Presentation at CAPACITY Middle East & North Africa, Dubai, UAE, February 27-28, 2008

During latest cuts of global submarine cables in January – February 2008, PCCW Global successfully managed risks due diversified network built after Taiwan earthquake in December

• 2006. The company rapidly re-routed its traffic from the Middle

East to Hong Kong and then to Europe through Eurasia Highway land route.

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9.3 Benefits: New Challenges

Internet Traffic by Applications, 2009

 “Web, P2P and streaming traffic account for 78%, the majority of which is video” – TeleGeography Inc.  Asia and Europe have the worse indexes by average response time – Internet Traffic Report.  Eurasia Highway route has the shortest distance and less Round-Trip Delay that improves performance of global IP networks (London – Hong Kong):

• Trans-Russia < 200 ms;
• Trans-ME & India ~ 260 ms;
• Trans-US > 300 ms.

Source: Internet Traffic Report, 25 January 2010 Source: TeleGeography

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Conclusions

 Submarine and terrestrial global route matching improves network capillarity and gives vast access to global routes for national

• perators

 Regional projects, both wet or land, impact

• n traffic distribution in global networks

 Such small projects will be internationally successful, if they create the new market value for global players: wider diversity, better latency, higher security,…

2010

Pacifico Convention Plaza Yokohama & InterContinental The Grand Yokohama 11 ~ 14 May 2010 www.suboptic.org

enabling the next generation of networks & services

The 7th International Conference & Convention

• n Undersea Telecommunications

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