Northern Boundary Sockeye Run Reconstructions 1982-2017 Northern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
northern boundary sockeye run reconstructions 1982 2017
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Northern Boundary Sockeye Run Reconstructions 1982-2017 Northern - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 03, 2022 13 likes •977 views

Northern Boundary Sockeye Run Reconstructions 1982-2017 Northern Boundary Technical Committee 9-10 January 2018 Run Reconstruction Model Data Input and Parameters Catch Data by gear for 28 fisheries Alaska catch by opening

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Northern Boundary Sockeye Run Reconstructions 1982-2017

Northern Boundary Technical Committee 9-10 January 2018

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Run Reconstruction Model

 Data Input and

Parameters

 Catch Data by

gear for 28 fisheries

 Alaska catch by

  • pening

 BC Catch by day

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Run Reconstruction Model

 Data Input and

Parameters

 Escapement data for 5 stocks

 Alaska (McDonald Lake

and others)

 annual totals &

estimated timing

 Nass and Skeena

 Daily escapement

 Stikine

 Alaskan stock comp. data (scale 82-

09; DNA 10-present)

 Canadian DNA data for Areas 3-5

(since 2002)

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Run Reconstruction Model

Recent changes:

 Since 2013 removed other “stock” catch from

BC and Alaskan fisheries before modelling

 Updated model to include release mortality

(15%) in BC seine fisheries in 2016

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Other data inputs: BC Catch Database

  • Stock composition based on DNA results from DFO in Areas 3 and 4

NB Reconstruction Database

  • Fraser Catch table
  • Other Catch stock composition table (SESPA data)

Alaska Catch Database

  • Other DNA stock composition calculation
  • US other escapement table

* Model was also used for Pink reconstructions from 1981 to 1995

Summary of Run Reconstruction data inputs

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Fraser catch

slide-7
SLIDE 7

ALASKAN FI SHERI ES

14 FI SHERI ES

29 28 23 33 22 27 30 25 24 32 31 20 21 26

slide-8
SLIDE 8

CANADI AN FI SHERI ES

  • 14 FI SHERI ES
  • 9 ACTI VELY FI SHED

I N RECENT YEARS

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Analytical Procedures

 Reconstruct runs by adding daily catch to

daily escapement

 work backwards through the fisheries

 Terminal – inside – outside

 Stock composition (SC) alternatives:

 Equal Vulnerability – SC for all fisheries

determined by stock abundance in each fishery

 Alaska Scale/DNA Data – SC for Alaska fisheries

  • btained from AK analysis of scale/DNA data

 Canadian DNA Data – SC for Canadian fisheries

  • btained from BC analyses of DNA data (started in

2002)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Eight Sets

  • f Migration

Routes

Routing A – 20 years

Routing B – 3 years

Routing C – 3 years

Routing D – 1 year

Routing E – 3 years

Routing F – 1 year

Routing G – 3 years

Routing H – 1 year

35 years

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Marine tagging studies – 1982 & 1983 (routes & residence times in fisheries)

slide-12
SLIDE 12

MI GRATI ON ROUTI NG A

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Routes - % modeled stocks in modelled fisheries

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Routes - % modeled stocks in modelled fisheries

slide-15
SLIDE 15

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - SKEENA

slide-16
SLIDE 16

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - NASS

slide-17
SLIDE 17

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - MCDONALD

slide-18
SLIDE 18

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS – US OTHER

slide-19
SLIDE 19

MI GRATI ON ROUTE A MAPS - STI KI NE

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Comparison of Catch Results

  • Routing B (2016) – Tree Point

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 26 29 32 35 38 26 29 32 35 38 26 29 32 35 38 Alaska DNA Data Equal Vulnerability

Alaska Stocks Nass Skeena

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Comparison of Catch Results

  • Routing B (2016) – Noyes

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Alaska DNA Data Equal Vulnerability

  • -Alaska Stocks --
  • ------ Nass -------

Skeena

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993

(Area 3E fishery – 100% Nass)

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run at Fishwheels

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Area 3E Catch

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Reconstructed Run Run Entering Area 3E

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993

(Area 3D fishery – 100% Nass)

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run leaving Area 3D Area 3D Catch Reconstructed Run Run Entering Area 3D

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993

(Area 3C fishery – Mixed Stock)

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Nass Abundance in Area 3C % Nass of Area 3C Sockeye Catch Skeena Abundance in Area 3C Equal Vulnerability Model

  • stock comp. determined

by abundance in fishery

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993

(Area 3C fishery – Calculate Nass Catch)

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

% Nass in Area 3C Area 3C Catch

  • f Nass Sockeye

Area 3C Catch

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993 (Through Area 3C)

50000 100000 150000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

50000 100000 150000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Nass Run Leaving Area 3C Area 3C Catch of Nass Sockeye

50000 100000 150000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Reconstructed Run Run Entering Area 3C

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Run Reconstruction - Nass Sockeye 1993

(Summary)

50000 100000 150000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run at Fishwheels

50000 100000 150000 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Run Entering Area 3C = Area 3C Nass Catch+ Area 3D Catch+ Area 3E Catch+ Escapement = Escapement

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Skeena Abundance Estimates for 2010

  • effect of DNA data and alternative routing options

route G was used in 2010

875 900 925 950 975 1000 1025 No DNA Data With DNA Data Total Abundance (X1000) A B C D E F G H

Routing Options

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Nass Abundance Estimates for 2010

  • effect of DNA data and alternative routing options (Route G

was used for 2010)

375 400 425 450 475 500 525 No DNA Data With DNA Data Total Abundance (X1000) A B C D E F G H

Routing Options

slide-30
SLIDE 30

McDonald Abundance Estimates for 2010

  • effect of DNA data and alternative routing options

route G was used in 2010

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 No DNA Data With DNA Data Total Abundance (X1000) A B C D E F G H

Routing Options

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Skeena Abundance Estimates for 2011

  • effect of DNA data and alternative routing options

(Route B was used in 2011)

1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 No DNA Data With DNA Data Total Abundance (X1000) A B C D E F G H

Routing Options

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Nass Abundance Estimates for 2011

  • effect of DNA data and alternative routing options (Route B

was used for 2011)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 No DNA Data With DNA Data Total Abundance (X1000) A B C D E F G H

Routing Options

slide-33
SLIDE 33

McDonald Abundance Estimates for 2011

  • effect of DNA data and alternative routing options

route B was used in 2011

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 No DNA Data With DNA Data Total Abundance (X1000) A B C D E F G H

Routing Options

slide-34
SLIDE 34

RUN RECONSTRUCTI ON SUMMARY - 2016

slide-35
SLIDE 35

GROSS TERMI NAL RUN DATA

Considerations for final modelling:

  • Skeena 2016

estimate

  • McDonald

2016 estimate

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Skeena River

The Skeena River drains 54,432 km2, making it the second largest watershed in British Columbia. I t originates in the Skeena Mountains and flows south and southwest for 400 km where it empties into Chatham Sound on the northern BC coast near Prince Rupert

slide-37
SLIDE 37

SKEENA RETURN DATA, 1985-2017

slide-38
SLIDE 38

SKEENA TRENDS - 2017

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Observations

  • f decreasing

size by age & species Observations

  • f late run

timing

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Nass River

  • Area – 20,500 km2
  • Length - 400 km
  • Average Total Run

(2000-2014):

  • Pink 800,000
  • Sockeye 700,000
  • Coho 400,000
  • Chum 42,000
  • Chinook 31,500

Major projects:

  • Fishwheel
  • Meziadin Fishway
  • Kwinageese Weir
  • Damdochax surveys
  • Catch programs
slide-41
SLIDE 41

Nisga’a Fisheries Program 1992-2017

Celebrating 26 years of success! Hands on Stock Assessment Team Work Leadership (WSN) Dedication

slide-42
SLIDE 42

NI SGA’A FI SHWHEEL PROGRAM

GI TWI NKSI HLKW FI SHWHEELS (FW 1 and 2) GREASE HARBOUR FI SHWHEELS (FW 3, 4, 5, 6)

TAGGI NG, POPULATI ON I NDEX, & AGE/ DNA ASSESSMENTS ONLY

ADDI TI ONAL TAGGI NG, SAMPLI NG, TAG RECOVERY FOR I N-SEASON POPULATI ON ESTI MATES & SOME SELECTI VE HARVESTI NG

6 Fishwheels operating in 2017 ( 2 at GW and 4 at GH)

slide-43
SLIDE 43
slide-44
SLIDE 44

FW 1 – HIGH WATER LEVEL FW 2 – MEDIUM WATER LEVEL FW 1 – LOW WATER LEVEL FW 1 – MEDIUM WATER LEVEL

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Fishwheels – Capture, Tagging & Bio- sampling (size, sex, and age)

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Nass Salmon, Steelhead and Trout catches in 2017 1 June – 9 September

2017– Below average catches of Chinook and chum; average catches of sockeye and steelhead, and above average catches of Coho and Pacific Lamprey.

slide-47
SLIDE 47
slide-48
SLIDE 48
slide-49
SLIDE 49

VERY GOOD I N-SEASON NASS ASSESSMENT DATA TO MANAGE FI SHERI ES

  • independent

mark rates used in- season (upper fishwheels)

  • final post-

season estimates use Meziadin fishway mark- recapture data

slide-50
SLIDE 50
slide-51
SLIDE 51

NASS RETURN DATA, 1985-2017

slide-52
SLIDE 52

NASS SOCKEYE TERMI NAL RUN 2017 296,939

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Meziadin Fishwheels

MEZI ADI N FI SHWAY - ~ 149 km upstream of tagging site

Fishway

slide-54
SLIDE 54

Meziadin Fishway Counts 2000-17

40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000 360,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Sockeye Count

Chinook and Coho Count

Sockeye Chinook Coho

Sock Target

  • 2017 monitoring was from 1 July to 5 October – 119,088

Sockeye

  • Only 38 Chinook counted passing fishway in 2017. Chinook

were observed jumping the falls and counted above.

slide-55
SLIDE 55

Kwinageese Fishwheels

KWI NAGEESE WEI R - ~ 208 km upstream of tagging sites

Chinook Sockeye

slide-56
SLIDE 56

Kwinageese Blockage update – 2017

  • Funds from the PSC were

used for enabling fish passage in 2011 due to rock slide blockage

  • Barrier was removed in

January 2016

  • No passage issues were

identified in 2017

  • economic fishery closures

planned to occur during passage in 2018

AUGUST 8, 2011 AUGUST 12, 2016

slide-57
SLIDE 57

Kwinageese River Weir Fish Counts 2002-17

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Number counted

Steelhead Coho Sockeye Chinook

Sockeye Run collapse documented from video weir

  • perations
  • Kwin. Maneuver

combined with non- retention periods of Sockeye in commercial and Nisga’a fisheries

Passage not an issue. Non-retention periods

  • f Sockeye in

commercial and Nisga’a fisheries

  • ccurred.

Not monitored (adults present)

  • 2017 monitoring was from 9 July to 14 October
slide-58
SLIDE 58

Kwinageese Sockeye Recovery Planning

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Non-Meziadin Sockeye Research

  • Priority research to

assess non-Meziadin populations (e.g., Bell-Irving stocks) as cannot visually account for large spawning populations each year (grouped as non-Mez in table)

slide-60
SLIDE 60

Aggregate Nass Sockeye pop estimate – Mark recapture censoring of tag losses

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Observations of injuries 2017

slide-62
SLIDE 62

Aggregate Nass Sockeye pop estimate – Mark recapture censoring of tag losses

slide-63
SLIDE 63

Observations

  • f decreasing

size by age & species

slide-64
SLIDE 64

MARK- RECAPTURE REVI EW FROM 2017

  • size selectivity

would result in larger estimate

  • for 2017, used

pooled estimate

slide-65
SLIDE 65

MARK-RECAPTURE REVI EW FROM 2017 –Genetic discrepancies (Meziadin)

slide-66
SLIDE 66

2017 STI KI NE TERMI NAL RUN

slide-67
SLIDE 67

MCDONALD TERMI NAL RUN 2017 2017 - 23,589

slide-68
SLIDE 68

US OTHER TERMI NAL RUN - 2017

slide-69
SLIDE 69

“US OTHER” TERMI NAL RUN 2017 - 70,536

slide-70
SLIDE 70

GROSS TERMI NAL RUN DATA

Final terminal run data used for 2016 & 2017

slide-71
SLIDE 71

Alaska Catch 2017 – SESPA vs. Sales Slip

slide-72
SLIDE 72

ALASKA GENETI C SAMPLI NG - 2017

slide-73
SLIDE 73

ALASKA GENETI C SAMPLI NG - 2017

slide-74
SLIDE 74

ALASKA GENETI C SAMPLI NG - 2017

slide-75
SLIDE 75
  • Percent Alaska
  • includes NSE AK, SSE AK, McDonald, Hugh Smith?
  • Percent Nass
  • include Gingit, Meziadin stocks (lake, Hanna, Tintina), Kwinageese

(Fred Wright, Bonney), Bell-Irving (Bowser), and Damdochax.

  • Percent Skeena
  • baseline Skeena stocks included
  • Percent Other – confirmation needed in future
  • includes Alsek, Taku, Stikine (except Districts 6 and 8 where Stikine is

broken out), Queen Charlotte, Central Coast, Washington

  • Percent Fraser
  • similar sub stocks should be as used for Fraser DNA analyses for

south coast * SESPA = SALMON ESCAPEMENT SCALE PATTERN ANALYSES

GENETI C STOCK COMPOSI TI ON ESTI MATES – SESPA* FI LE

slide-76
SLIDE 76

GENETI C STOCK COMPOSI TI ON ESTI MATE - 2017

slide-77
SLIDE 77

GENETI C STOCK COMPOSI TI ON ESTI MATE - 2017

slide-78
SLIDE 78

“Fraser Sockeye” CATCH DATA I N D104 (2017)

slide-79
SLIDE 79

ALASKA COMMERCI AL CATCHES - 2017

slide-80
SLIDE 80
slide-81
SLIDE 81

BC MARI NE COMMERCI AL CATCHES - 2017

  • BC commercial catches are using hail catches
  • BC DNA collections were not conducted in in

2017

slide-82
SLIDE 82

BC CATCH USING GILLNET REGRESSION BASED ON 2002 TO 2012

  • 2017 - HAIL

ESTIMATE IS 13,705 SOCKEYE HIGHER

slide-83
SLIDE 83

BC CATCH USING SEINE REGRESSION BASED ON 2002 TO 2012

  • No seine

harvests in 2017

slide-84
SLIDE 84

2017 BC CATCH ADJUSTED FOR RELEASE MORTALITY (15%) 2016 – 6,926 ADDED 2017 – 3,018 ADDED

slide-85
SLIDE 85

RUN RECONSTRUCTI ONS

2016 Run update:

  • 1. Final BC catch - release mortality (15%) used in BC

seine fishery? agreed

  • 2. Final Stikine terminal run – 164,451 vs 170,056?

agreed

  • 3. Final Skeena terminal run – 1,233,087 vs 1,093,330

agreed 2017 Run initiation:

  • 1. Final BC catch - release mortality (15%) used in BC

seine fishery? agreed

  • 2. Final BC catch – Hail estimate or regression

estimate? used hail estimate

  • 3. Updated non-Babine escapement best estimate
slide-86
SLIDE 86

RUN RECONSTRUCTI ONS 2016 – JAN 9, 2018

slide-87
SLIDE 87

RUN RECONSTRUCTI ONS 2017 – JAN 9, 2018

slide-88
SLIDE 88

Comparison of Catch Results

  • Routing F (2017) – Tree Point (29)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

25 28 31 34 37 25 28 31 34 37 25 28 31 34 37

Alaska DNA Data Equal Vulnerability

  • -Alaska Stocks --
  • ------ Nass -------

Skeena

slide-89
SLIDE 89

Comparison of Catch Results

  • Routing F (2017) – Noyes (20)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

29 31 33 35 29 31 33 35 29 31 33 35

Alaska DNA Data Equal Vulnerability

  • -Alaska Stocks --
  • ------ Nass -------

Skeena

slide-90
SLIDE 90

Comparison of Catch Results

  • Routing F (2017) – Dall (21)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

29 31 33 35 29 31 33 35 29 31 33 35

Alaska DNA Data Equal Vulnerability

  • -Alaska Stocks --
  • ------ Nass -------

Skeena

slide-91
SLIDE 91

RUN RECONSTRUCTI ONS 2017 – JAN 9, 2018

slide-92
SLIDE 92

D101 GN – 2017 (9 Jan 2018) ANNUAL ALLOWABLE HARVESTS (AAH)

slide-93
SLIDE 93

D104 SN – 2017 (9 Jan 2018) ANNUAL ALLOWABLE HARVESTS (AAH)

slide-94
SLIDE 94
  • General

poor salmon returns on coast in 2017 due to warm water blob impacts from 2015

slide-95
SLIDE 95

2017 – weird species observations

slide-96
SLIDE 96

UPDATED: Rare ‘king-of-the- salmon’ washes up on Oak Bay beach

The rare type of ribbonfish was found by a man walking his dog

  • n Rattenbury

Beach. Thu Sep 21st, 2017 12:30pm

2017