3 rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement Grant, Whitehouse, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

3rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement

Grant, Whitehouse, Tadey, Benner, Patterson, Hills, Selbie, Pon, Neville, Trudel, Perry, Lapointe, Huang

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Objective To improve our understanding of factors that influence Fraser Sockeye survival

• Returns and Population Dynamics
• Upstream migration and fish health
• Spawner assessments (health, condition, numbers)
• Juveniles in lake (health, condition, numbers)
• Limnology
• Mission smolts
• Strait of Georgia Juveniles
• High Seas Juveniles and Ocean Conditions

Synthesize and integrate research from various experts:

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Name Life-History Stage Sue Grant Forecasts and Population Dynamics Bronwyn MacDonald Forecasts Keri Benner Escapement and Smolts David Patterson Migration and Fish Condition: Adults and Smolts Jayme Hills Migration and Fish Condition: Adults and Smolts Dan Selbie Lake Fry and Limnology Lucas Pon Lake Fry and Limnology Joe Tadey Mission Smolts Timber Whitehouse Mission Smolts Chrys Neville Strait of Georgia Sockeye juveniles Marc Trudel High Seas Salmon and Ocean Conditions Ian Perry Ocean Conditions Mike Lapointe Returns Ann-Marie Huang Population Dynamics

Discharge High What stocks were possibly affected? Early Stuart, Early Summer

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Adult Migration Conditions Overall look: 2012 Discharge Conditions: Early Stuart

David Patterson and Jayme Hills

Summer runs experienced above average temperatures

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Adult Migration Conditions Overall look: 2012 Temperature : Chilko

David Patterson and Jayme Hills

Spawning Success

Below Average At / Above Average

Keri Benner

• Poor fish condition and high

pre-spawn mortality in several areas (not all) of the watershed

• Lowest spawning success

in 50 years at 71% (average 89%)

• At / near record low success
• f spawn at several

populations

Loge (Recruits/Smolt)

Brood Year CHILKO FRESHWATER SURVIVAL

Keri Benner, Mike Lapointe, Steve Latham

Smolt sizes in 2012 (99 mm) above average (86 mm)

2012 BY (age-4 2016 returns)

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Mission Smolt Outmigration Survey

Timber Whitehouse and Joe Tadey, Project Leads DFO Stock Assessment

Mean CU fork-length

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77.9 71.9 76.3 97.4 88.3 85.8 100.7 96.3 94.8 0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 125.0 Anderson-Seton (ES) Shuswap Complex (L) Chilko (S) & Chilko (ES)

2012 2013 2014

Timber Whitehouse & Joe Tadey

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Strait of Georgia Juvenile Salmon Surveys

Neville & Beamish, DFO Science

Sockeye salmon CPUE June/July

The CPUE (0.43) in 2014 is not

• nly lower than other years for

same cycle line (arrows) it is the lowest in the time series. EXTREMELY Preliminary Regression: predicted 470,000 at the 50% p-level

• The average proportion of empty stomachs sampled in trawl surveys in 2014

was similar to average and would therefore suggest that conditions were not

• ut of the normal range in the SOG
• Unlike last year, the distribution of juveniles in the SOG and movement

through the Discovery Islands is similar to other years.

Sockeye - September

Age-4 48 K (19K age-3 in 2015) 128 K Age-3 0.1 M 0.14 M 0.015 M 1.4 M 1.6 M 0.17 M 0.17 M 1.4 M 0.230 M 0.27 M 0.38 M 0.01 M 0.09 M 0.06 M 0.08 M 0.007 M 2016 Forecast: 0.067 M (0.500 M)

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Indicators of Survival

Age 3 (Jacks) Recruits Age 4 Recruits

Chilko

y = 0.3416x + 2.0604 R² = 0.3

• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2

• 10
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

Preliminary 2015 Jack Escapements (ER Adj): 2,500

Source: K.Benner

2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 970,000 2016 Ricker-cyc Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 1,000,000

y = 0.243x + 1.0489 R² = 0.3

• 6
• 5
• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

1

• 16
• 14
• 12
• 10
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

Age 3 (Jacks) Recruits Age 4 Recruits

Stellako

Preliminary 2015 Jack Escapements (ER Adj): 57

Source: K.Benner

2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 257 ,000 2016 Ricker-cyc Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 256,000

• No estimates yet for 2015 IFC Marine Survival
• Although based on in-season observations the survival is expected to be VERY LOW

(per. comm. , DFO, L. Ritchie and C. Parken)

• Therefore Chilko MS in 2016 would be expected to range from 1 to 5%

(this falls b/w 10-25% p-level of the Chilko Power-smolt-Pi forecast) Data range: 1984-2010 Brood Years

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Ocean Conditions

State of the Ocean DFO Tech Report 3102 Editor: Ian Perry

Vertical distribution of the “blob” at Station Papa, Gulf of Alaska

Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016

• Fig. courtesy Howard Freeland (DFO,ret.)

January 2014

Difference from normal temperatures

January 2015

Difference from normal temperatures

Very intense warm water (red: up to 3 °C above normal) in NE Pacific, but cool (blue) along BC coast NE Pacific has cooled (blue), but warm water (red) moved to BC coast

The “Blob” moves to the coast of North America

Reynold’s data

Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016

Perry, Session S2, PICES 2015 Annual Meeting, Qingdao, China, 21 October 2014

July 2015

Difference from normal temperatures

August 2015

Difference from normal temperatures

The “Blob” in summer, 2015 The “Blob” is still evident at the surface in the NE Pacific, but less intense than previous months

Reynold’s data

Changes in water temperature are reflected in changes in zooplankton species composition

• northern-type

zooplankton occurred along Vancouver Island in 1st half of 2014 when water was cool (large nutritious species, good for fish)

• but, southern-type

zooplankton in 2nd half of 2014 and in 2015 when water was warm (small poor quality species)

1 mm

Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016

Run timing group Forecast Model b

Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a

Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58,000 108,000 Early Summer 236,000 424,000 837,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 Gates Larkin 46,000 79,000 141,000 280,000 502,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65,000 126,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79,000 120,000 190,000 Scotch Ricker 48,000 85,000 185,000 430,000 845,000 Seymour Ricker 41,000 68,000 140,000 274,000 529,000 Misc (EShu) c

RS (Scotch/Seymour)

33,000 74,000 164,000 258,000 459,000 Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4, 000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108,000 197,000 367,000 684,000 1,421,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54,000 118,000 245,000 Stellako Larkin 186,000 261,000 390,000 552,000 823,000 Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255,000 573,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs)f & g

R/S (Raft/Fennell)

1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g

R/S (Raft/Fennell)

5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419,000 703,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168,000 293,000 517,000 924,000 1,758,000 Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 Weaver MRS 110,000 189,000 346,000 635,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead

Ricker (Ei)+Sibling

120,000 183,000 299,000 513,000 879,000 Misc Lillooet-Harrisoni R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60,000 107,000 189,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000

35% Chilko 21% Harrison 15% Shuswap (Early + Late) Early Shuswap

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• Poor migration conditions in 2012 for Early Stuart and Early Summers and

high pre-spawn (legacy effects on juveniles unknown but possible?)

• In stock proportions at Mission/SOG/Forecasts although Chilko

consistently high, other stocks different between samples

• Extremely low CPUE in SOG for Fraser Sockeye 4sub2
• Jack-to-4 yr forecasts same as forecast for Chilko and Stellako
• Proportion of empty stomachs of juveniles in SOG average
• ‘Warm Blob’ amplified in the 2013 OEY; strong throughout marine residence

Below Average Survival Signals (Possibly) Average Signals of Survival (Possibly)

• Juvenile sizes above average for Chilko and other stocks
• IFC CO indicates poor Chilko MS
• Low CPUE in SOG for Harrison 3sub1’s

Summary (REALLY preliminary)

Uncertain Signals of Survival

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