FIVE-YEAR FORECAST NOVEMBER 2019
FIVE YEAR FORECAST= PLANNING TOOL FIVE YEAR FORECAST= PLANNING TOOL Required to be filed with Ohio Department of Education(ODE) by May 31 st and November 30 th of each year Includes: Historical 3-Years and Projected 5-Years Projections are based upon the most accurate information available at the time The forecast includes financial activity in a District’s OPERATING fund only (General Fund)
Operating vs. Non-Operating Funds
Five-Year Forecast Updated 11-11-19 FORECAST SUMMARY Avg. Revenue Growth 1.81% Avg. Expenditure Growth 3.70%
REVENUES ● State Funding – 39.2% ● Real Estate/PUPP/Tax Alloc - 49.8% ● Other Financing Sources – 7.1% ● All Other Revenues – 3.9%
GENERAL PROPERTY TAX CLASSIFICATIONS PROPERTY TAX Class I - Residential – 70.45% Class II - Business – 24.52% Public Utility Personal Property - 4.10% Agricultural - .93%
REAL ESTATE TAXES – includes Class I Residential & Class II Business. Forecasted 2020-2024 amounts reflect 1.19% average annual growth. The forecast takes into the account both the 2020 physical reappraisal and the 2023 triennial update.
UNRESTRICTED STATE GRANTS – State funding formula for base aid is suspended for current biennium. District’s receive the same amount of base aid as was received in 2019. Adjustments to base aid are made such as Open Enrollment, Community Schools, Preschool, & Enrollment Growth. Forecasted amounts for 2020 – 2024 include average annual growth of 2.32%.
OTHER FINANCING SOURCES– Includes the return of Advances (short term loans to other District funds) that were made in the prior year. The majority of the 2018 and 2019 Advances were received from the Permanent Improvement (PI) Fund. The forecast discontinues this annual Advance in 2020-2024 .
EXPENDITURES EXPENDITURES ● Salaries – 45.7% ● Benefits – 18.4% ● Purchased Services – 25.8% ● Other Financing Uses – 6.6% ● Capital & Other – 2.4% ● Supplies - 1.1%
SALARIES/PERSONNEL SERVICES - Salaries through 2020 include increases based upon existing negotiated agreements. 2021-2024 forecast includes an average annual increase of 2.5%, with 2022 showing an additional increase due to the return of Student Wellness salaries from the special revenue fund.
BENEFITS – primarily made up of retirement and medical insurance. Retirement expenses are a function of salary expense. Forecasted Medical insurance reflects 9% annual increases in 2020 and 2021 and 7.0% yearly increases for 2022-2024 based upon industry standard. Medical expenses also show increase over 2018 due to premium holiday in 2018 that is not anticipated in future years.
PURCHASED SERVICES - primarily includes Payments to Other Districts, Busing, Student Supports (e.g., Nursing, Speech, OT, PT, etc), Utilities, and other professional, technical, and repairs and maintenance services. Forecast Expenses for 2020-2024 includes 2.84% average annual growth.
OTHER FINANCING USES- includes Advances-Out/Transfers-Out from the General Fund to other District funds. The majority of 2017 and 2018 activity included Advances to the PI Fund. For 2019 the transaction was recorded as a Transfer so that the PI Fund maintains a positive cash balance. Also, included in the forecast are annual Transfers to the District Managed Activities Fund which average $435K.
6.01 7.020 FY20 ($6,100,333) $ 8,281,447 LINE 6.01 EXCESS OF REV FY21 ($7,568,518) $ 712,930 OVER/(UNDER) EXPENSE ($8,707,879) ($7,994,950) FY22 LINE 7.020 ($9,862,739) ($17,857,689) ENDING CASH FY23 BALANCE FY24 ($10,783,001) ($28,640,690)
How would a 7.99 mill levy impact the forecast? Less than 2 months of expenditures
Cuts to Programs & Services to Students If No Additional Levy Revenue $3.5 million is equivalent to 60 staff members
Our Work Isn’t Finished… Strategic Vision: TOGETHER as one community, we LEARN.LEAD.SUCCEED. Today -We must stabilize our district so that our students and staff do not lose any more programs or services. Tomorrow -We must obtain and align vital resources to ensure the district’s capacity to advance educational opportunities for each learner.
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