Five-Year Forecast Five-Year Forecast Greg Grootendorst, Chief - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Five-Year Forecast Five-Year Forecast Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission David Bradley, Director of Budget and
Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer at VBC Public Schools Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer at VBC Public Schools
2012 REGI ONAL FORECAST 2012 REGI ONAL FORECAST
Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist November 21, 2017
% Who Worked Outside County of Residence
1 35
% of People Who Have a Bachelor's Degree
1 35
Median Age
1 35
Gini Coefficient (Measure of Income Equality)
1 35
% of Renter’s Spending >30%
1 35
Per Capita Income
1 35
% of Veterans in the Civilian Population
1 35
Highest Value Lowest Value
15.9 % 47.7% 26.3% $31,622 .44 35.9 31.4%
3 1 19 5 29 25 33 HR Rank in the Comparable Metro Areas
2016 American Community Survey Data for Hampton Roads
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
$50 $55 $60 $65 $70 $75 $80 $85 $90 Billions of 2009 Dollars Non‐ Zero Axis
4
Inflation‐Adjusted 2009 Dollars
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
1.07% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Annualized Change in Employment
(2012 ‐ 2015)
Metropolitan Areas with Population between 1 and 3 Million U.S. Metro Area Average is 2.19%
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‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Percent Job Loss Relative to Peak Months Since Peak Employment U.S. Virginia Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC
Presentation to Virginia Beach
6
September 2007 – September 2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC
Construction Retail Trade Local Government Manufacturing Information Real Estate & Leasing Wholesale Trade Finance & Insurance State Government Leisure & Hospitality Administrative & Support Transportation & Utilities Other Services Management Education Services Scientific & Technical Federal Government Healthcare & Social Change in Employment
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September 2016 – September 2017
Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality Real Estate & Leasing Finance & Insurance Information Local Government Wholesale Trade Federal Government State Government Scientific & Technical Education Services Manufacturing Other Services Management Construction Transportation & Utilities Healthcare & Social Administrative & Support Change in Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC
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(Seasonally Adjusted)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Unemployment Rate U.S. Hampton Roads Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC
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12 – Month Moving Average
700,000 720,000 740,000 760,000 780,000 800,000 820,000 840,000 860,000
Civilian Payroll Employment Employed Civilians Civilian Labor Force
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, HRPDC
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Deseasonalized
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Initial Claims per Month Recessions
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, HRPDC
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75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% Ratio of Hampton Roads PCI to U.S. & Virginia Share of US PCI Share of Virginia PCI Non‐ Zero Axis
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
12
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Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and HRPDC
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Income in 2015 Dollars Hampton Roads U.S.
13
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(Inflation‐Adjusted)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 Salary and Wages Per Job
(2015 $s)
Hampton Roads U.S.
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Presentation to Virginia Beach
(U.S. Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Billions of Real Dollars (2016 $'s)
Korean War War on Terror 80's Cold War Buildup Vietnam War
15
30% 41% 27%
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Share of Total Employment
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
145K Personnel 86K Personnel
Since 1990
‐ 56,800
Past 10 years
‐22,600 16
Presentation to Virginia Beach
(Inflation‐Adjusted)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: USAspending.gov, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and HRPDC
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Millions of 2016 Dollars
(5‐Year Moving Average)
Fiscal Year
17
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Congressional Research Office, Congressional Budget Office and HRPDC
$400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 Billions in Projected Defense Spending
Presidents Budget, 2012 Budget Control Act, 2011 American Taxpayer Relief Act, 2012 Bipartisan Budget Act, 2013 Bipartisan Budget Act, 2015 Actual Defense Expenditures
18
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Port of Virginia and HRPDC
5 10 15 20 25 Millions of Short Tons Exports Imports
19
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Employment
20
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Virginia Employment Commission and HRPDC
1990 13.2% 2016 11.4% 1990 12.0% 2016 11.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% Retail Employment as a Percent of Civilian Non‐farm Employment HR Share U.S. Share Non‐ Zero Axis
21
Presentation to Virginia Beach
(Inflation‐Adjusted)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Personal Incomes, Billions of 2016 Dollars Retail Sales, Billions of 2016 Dollars Hampton Roads Retail Sales Hampton Roads Personal Incomes
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(Local Option Retail: 3‐Month Moving Average) $1.2 $1.3 $1.4 $1.5 $1.6 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.0
Billions of Dollars of Sales (Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, HRPDC
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Units Permitted 5 or More Units 3 or 4 Units 2 Units 1 Unit
24
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(Seasonally‐Adjusted)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Rose and Womble Residential Data Bank and HRPDC
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Total Closings New Resales
25
Presentation to Virginia Beach
80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 Home Price Index (2000 Q1 = 100) HR VA US
Sources: HRPDC and the Fair Housing Finance Agency
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Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Auditor of Public Accounts, Weldon Cooper Center, BLS, and HRPDC
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2016 Dollars Per Capita Other Local Taxes Local Sales and Use Tax Non‐Tax Revenue Personal Property Tax Real Property Tax
27
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Auditor of Public Accounts, Weldon Cooper Center, BLS, and HRPDC
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 Per Capita Expenditure Expenditure Category Hampton Roads Virginia Average
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Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Auditor of Public Accounts, Weldon Cooper Center, BLS, and HRPDC
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Presentation to Virginia Beach
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Per Capita Expenditure Expenditure Category Hampton Roads Virginia Average
(Inflation‐Adjusted)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and HRPDC
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 2015 Dollars Per Pupil Hampton Roads Virginia
30
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Virginia Department of Education and HRPDC
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008* 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 4 Year Graduation Rate Hampton Roads Virginia Graduation Rate Virginia Graduation Rate‐ Cohort
* Dates are Graduation Rates Calculated Using the Cohort Method
31
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Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation and HRPDC
100 200 300 400 500 600 Violent Crime Per 100,000 People Hampton Roads United States
*The FBI did not report data for Hampton Roads in 2009
32
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Poverty Rate Hampton Roads United States
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Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Virginia Department of Environmental Quality and HRPDC
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ozone Parts Per Billion Ozone Level Primary Standard
34
Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: Weldon Cooper Center and HRPDC
927,854 1,726,907
200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Population
Only Year‐Over‐ Year Decrease 1978 ‐ 1979
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Presentation to Virginia Beach
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and HRPDC
100,000 50,000 50,000 100,000 Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years 85 years and over Population Age Categories Females Males Greatest (silent) Boomers Gen X Millen Next..
36
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Sources: HRPDC, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Blue Chip Economic Indicators
‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Annualized Percent Change
Consensus Forecast
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Sources: HRPDC, HRTPO, and the U.S. Census Bureau
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Sources: HRPDC, HRTPO, and the U.S. Census Bureau
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expenditures
Recession
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1980 to 2016
1980 to 2016
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 4.13% Annual Gr
ate 0.79% Annual Gr
ate 0.30% Annual Gr
ate 0.59% Annual Gr
ate
Sour c e s: Ce nsus Bur e au and We ldon Cooper Ce nte r for Public Se r vic e
1980 compared to 2016
1980 compared to 2016
Sour c e : Ce nsus Bur e au
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
Unde r 18 65+
Sour c e : Ce nsus Bur e au
80.0% 88.0% 90.4% 93.1% 93.4% 22.4% 25.5% 28.1% 31.6% 35.0% 7.7% 8.9% 10.9% 12.3%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Hig h Sc ho o l Graduate Ba c hle o r's De g re e Gra dua te o r Pro fe ssio na l De g re e
Sour c e : Ce nsus Bur e au
Nationally, 47% of adults ove r the age of 25 have an Assoc iate ’s De gr e e or highe r While only 27% of jobs r e quir e a de gr e e .
Sour c e s: Ce nsus Bur e au and Bur e au of L abor Statistic s
Housing Expenses Exceed 30% of Income
Housing Expenses Exceed 30% of Income
26.3% 30.7% 27.4% 37.6% 27.6%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Owne rs
Sour c e : Ce nsus Bur e au
11.10% 11.40% 13.90% 19.70% 24.90%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
Sour c e : Ce nsus Bur e au
$11,998 $21,743 $32,331 $44,812 $52,235 $20,203 $36,271 $47,705 $64,212 $71,117
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Pe r Capita Me dian Ho use ho ld Me dian Ho use ho ld I nc o me Adjuste d fo r I nflatio n fro m 2010 is $64,613. Pe r Capita I nc o me Adjuste d fo r I nflatio n fro m 2010 is $48,056.
2015 Data Sour c e s: Ce nsus Bur e au and Bur e au of E c onomic Analysis
13.0% 10.8% 8.9% 7.9% 10.3% 5.1%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
1980 1990 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Childre n I ndividuals E lde rly
F ir st 3 data points ar e de c ade s
Sour c e : Ce nsus Bur e au
30.79% 27.18% 29.13% 31.13% 30.46% 33.15% 32.85% 36.18% 36.94% 37.74% 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
% o f Stude nts
Sour c e : VBCPS De par tme nt of Sc hool Division Se r vic e s, Offic e of F
vic e s
6.12% 7.19% 8.57% 8.12% 7.23% 9.11% 9.07%
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%
Virg inia Be a c h Che sa pe a ke No rfo lk Po rtsmo uth Suffo lk Ha mpto n Ne wpo rt Ne ws
Pe r Ca pita E xpe nditure s a s a Pe rc e nta g e o f Pe r Ca pita I nc o me
Sour c e : VBCPS De par tme nt of Sc hool Division Se r vic e s, Offic e of F
vic e s
Telecommunications Tax – Loss of Revenue Marketplace Fairness Act Sales Tax – Growth in Services vs. Retail Other – Airbnb, E-cigarettes and Uber Telecommunications Tax – Loss of Revenue Marketplace Fairness Act Sales Tax – Growth in Services vs. Retail Other – Airbnb, E-cigarettes and Uber
$428,113,788
$599
$420 $440 $460 $480 $500 $520 $540 $560 $580 $600 $620 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23
Millions
Budget Actual Projection
$139 $132 $153 $171
$120 $130 $140 $150 $160 $170 $180 F Y 14 F Y 15 F Y 16 F Y 17 F Y 18 F Y 19 F Y 20 F Y 21 F Y 22 F Y 23
Millio ns
Budg e t Ac tual Pro je c tio n
$9 $75 $53
$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
F Y 14 F Y 15 F Y 16 F Y 17 F Y 18 F Y 19 F Y 20 F Y 21 F Y 22 F Y 23 Millio ns
Budg e t Ac tual Pro je c tio n
Ge ne r al Sale s BPOL R e staur ant Hote l
$95 $108
$90 $92 $94 $96 $98 $100 $102 $104 $106 $108 $110 F Y 14 F Y 15 F Y 16 F Y 17 F Y 18 F Y 19 F Y 20 F Y 21 F Y 22 F Y 23
Millio ns
2% salary increase per year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 2% inflation 1% increase in VRS every 2 years beginning in FY 2018-19 Healthcare cost increasing by 3% from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 City CIP and Operating Budget commitments Debt based on current debt schedules and projected issuances 2% salary increase per year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 2% inflation 1% increase in VRS every 2 years beginning in FY 2018-19 Healthcare cost increasing by 3% from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23 City CIP and Operating Budget commitments Debt based on current debt schedules and projected issuances
$1.13 $1.15 $1.19 $1.22 $1.25 $1.28 $1.13 $1.15 $1.18 $1.21 $1.24 $1.27
$1.10 $1.12 $1.14 $1.16 $1.18 $1.20 $1.22 $1.24 $1.26 $1.28 $1.30 F Y 2018 F Y 2019 F Y 2020 F Y 2021 F Y 2022 F Y 2023 Billio ns
E xpe nditure s Re ve nue s FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 $ 109,118 $ (3,525,157) $ (6,597,800) $ (7,136,677) $ (10,115,989)
Stormwater Fund - Balanced Through Final Year of 5 Year ERU Rate Increases
Slight Deficit in FY 2022-23
Water and Sewer Fund – Balanced Through FY 2020-21
Slight Deficits in FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23
Waste Management Fund – Shows Deficit in Each Year of the Forecast Stormwater Fund - Balanced Through Final Year of 5 Year ERU Rate Increases
Slight Deficit in FY 2022-23
Water and Sewer Fund – Balanced Through FY 2020-21
Slight Deficits in FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23
Waste Management Fund – Shows Deficit in Each Year of the Forecast
Other Revenue Sources
Anticipate reducing the reliance on reversion funding by $2 million each year of the forecast period until this revenue source is no longer needed to balance the School Operating budget by FY 2022-23
Other Revenue Sources
Anticipate reducing the reliance on reversion funding by $2 million each year of the forecast period until this revenue source is no longer needed to balance the School Operating budget by FY 2022-23
REVENUE HIGHLIGHTS
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 State Shared Sales Tax +2.5% +2.5% +3.0% +3.0% +3.0% Other State Revenue +2.0% +2.5% +3.0% +3.0% +3.0% Local Revenue (RSF) +1.97% +2.03% +2.01% +2.03% +1.96% Federal Revenue
This forecast reflects increases in revenue at the state and local levels and continues to reverse the impact of significant cuts VBCPS has sustained since 2008.
Non-Personnel Expenses
All non-personnel budget line items impacted by inflation are expected to increase by approximately 2% each year of the forecast period
Capital outlay expenditures are expected to increase by approximately $450,000 to purchase five additional replacement school buses each year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23
Non-Personnel Expenses
All non-personnel budget line items impacted by inflation are expected to increase by approximately 2% each year of the forecast period
Capital outlay expenditures are expected to increase by approximately $450,000 to purchase five additional replacement school buses each year from FY 2018-19 to FY 2022-23
EXPENDITURE HIGHLIGHTS
Personnel Services and Fringe Benefits
Each year of the forecast period includes a 2% salary increase
The current Virginia Retirement System (VRS) rate of 16.32% is expected to drop by 0.64% in FY 2018-19 to 15.68% and remain flat at that rate from FY 2019-20 through FY 2022-23
Programmatic Priorities - expansion of existing programs or adding new programs (e.g. expansion of
preschool and full-day kindergarten)
Technology - 1:1 technology initiative (access for all students) Employee Compensation - competitive pay increases, Unified Pay Scale equity adjustments Employee Benefits - costs associated with healthcare (pending outcome of federal legislation) State and Federal Mandates - new financial transparency provision in the Every Student Succeeds Act
Programmatic Priorities - expansion of existing programs or adding new programs (e.g. expansion of
preschool and full-day kindergarten)
Technology - 1:1 technology initiative (access for all students) Employee Compensation - competitive pay increases, Unified Pay Scale equity adjustments Employee Benefits - costs associated with healthcare (pending outcome of federal legislation) State and Federal Mandates - new financial transparency provision in the Every Student Succeeds Act
The following list highlights examples of factors that place considerable pressure on the School Operating budget.
Lagging State Funding - state budget allocates nine percent less on K-12 instruction than it did in
2005
Life Cycle Needs - school buses, white fleet vehicles, copiers/multifunction devices and
replacement technology equipment
Structurally Flawed Operating budget strategy - FY 2017/18 marks the eighth consecutive year
VBCPS is relying on one-time reversion funds for ongoing expenses ($8.8 million)
Enrollment and demographics - slow decline in student enrollment projected to continue Lagging State Funding - state budget allocates nine percent less on K-12 instruction than it did in
2005
Life Cycle Needs - school buses, white fleet vehicles, copiers/multifunction devices and
replacement technology equipment
Structurally Flawed Operating budget strategy - FY 2017/18 marks the eighth consecutive year
VBCPS is relying on one-time reversion funds for ongoing expenses ($8.8 million)
Enrollment and demographics - slow decline in student enrollment projected to continue
FY 2017-18 Adopted FY 2018-19 Forecast FY 2019-20 Forecast FY 2020-21 Forecast FY 2021-22 Forecast FY 2022-23 Forecast Revenue Sharing Formula* 427,710,350 436,149,554 444,983,377 453,926,729 463,125,190 472,179,891 Schools Use of Sandbridge TIF 409,000 409,000
477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 Charges for Services 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 Miscellaneous Revenue 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 State Shared Sales Tax 73,718,340 75,561,299 77,450,331 79,773,841 82,167,056 84,632,068 Other State Revenue 273,443,481 278,912,351 285,885,159 294,461,714 303,295,566 312,394,433 Federal Revenue 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 School Reversion/Fund Balance 8,803,897 6,800,000 4,800,000 2,800,000 800,000
813,550,544 828,837,208 846,680,625 865,106,153 884,924,732
FY 2017‐18 Adopted FY 2018‐19 Forecast FY 2019‐20 Forecast FY 2020‐21 Forecast FY 2021‐22 Forecast FY 2022‐23 Forecast Personnel Services 460,704,795 471,165,890 481,861,146 491,498,369 501,328,336 511,354,903 Fringe Benefits FICA 35,124,805 36,044,191 36,862,378 37,599,625 38,351,618 39,118,650 VRS 72,142,284 73,878,812 75,555,828 77,066,944 78,608,283 80,180,449 Health Insurance 59,146,766 60,921,169 62,748,804 64,631,268 66,570,206 68,567,312 Life Insurance 3,303,644 6,172,273 6,312,381 6,438,629 6,567,401 6,698,749 All Other Fringe Benefits 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 3,149,554 Contractual Services 49,216,858 50,201,195 51,205,219 52,229,323 53,273,910 54,339,388 Other Charges 55,629,948 56,742,547 57,877,398 59,034,946 60,215,645 61,419,958 Capital Outlay 4,541,259 4,991,259 5,441,259 5,891,259 6,341,259 6,791,259 Land, Structures and Improvement 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 Debt Service 44,947,680 41,951,320 44,583,067 44,558,369 45,429,259 45,830,953 Transfers to Other Funds Athletics Fund 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 4,595,823 Categorical Grants Fund 3,313,969 3,573,608 3,833,246 3,833,246 3,833,246 3,833,246 Green Run Collegiate Fund 3,763,447 3,822,058 3,893,157 3,959,445 4,027,138 4,096,268 799,803,409 817,432,275 838,141,836 854,709,377 872,514,255 890,199,089
Forecasted Revenues Forecasted Expenditures
Projected Deficits
Utilizing the revenue and expenditure assumptions from the previous slide, VBCPS is projecting the following deficits over the forecast period.
Projected Deficits
Utilizing the revenue and expenditure assumptions from the previous slide, VBCPS is projecting the following deficits over the forecast period.
( 9,304,628 ) ( 8,028,752 ) ( 7,408,102 ) ( 5,274,357 )
740,000,000 760,000,000 780,000,000 800,000,000 820,000,000 840,000,000 860,000,000 880,000,000 900,000,000 F Y 2017-18 Adopte d F Y 2018-19 F
e c ast F Y 2019-20 F
e c ast F Y 2020-21 F
e c ast F Y 2021-22 F
e c ast F Y 2022-23 F
e c ast
R e ve nue E xpe nditur es Base line Defic it
City and School’s Surplus and Deficit
FY 2018‐19 Forecast FY 2019‐20 Forecast FY 2020‐21 Forecast FY 2021‐22 Forecast FY 2022‐23 Forecast City Surplus and Deficit $ 109,118 $ (3,525,157) $ (6,597,880) $ (7,136,677) $ (10,115,989) Schools’ Deficit $ (3,881,731) $ (9,304,628) $ (8,028,752) $ (7,408,102) $ (5,274,357)
City and School Combined Expenditures and Revenues
Expenditures $ 1,971,985,569 $ 2,023,563,517 $ 2,070,810,639 $ 2,117,561,725 $ 2,167,456,192 Revenues $ 1,968,212,956 $ 2,010,733,732 $ 2,056,184,008 $ 2,103,016,945 $ 2,152,065,847 Total Combined Deficit $ (3,772,613) $ (12,829,785) $ (14,626,631) $ (14,544,779) $ (15,390,346) *The combined City and School Expenditures and Revenues includes transfers
Moving towards sustainable forecasts State budget Regional Economy is Growing Recession on the horizon? New/expanded programs Tax restructuring Moving towards sustainable forecasts State budget Regional Economy is Growing Recession on the horizon? New/expanded programs Tax restructuring