Five-Year Forecast Five-Year Forecast Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist at Hampton Roads Planning District Commission David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer at VBC Public Schools Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer at VBC Public Schools
Hampton Roads Economic Briefing Presented to: the City of Virginia Beach Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist November 21, 2017 2012 REGI ONAL FORECAST 2012 REGI ONAL FORECAST
2016 American Community Survey Data for Hampton Roads HR Rank in the Comparable Metro Areas Highest Value Lowest Value % of Veterans in the Civilian 1 1 35 15.9 % Population % Who Worked Outside 3 35 1 47.7% County of Residence % of Renter’s Spending >30% 1 5 35 26.3% of Income on Housing 1 19 $31,622 Per Capita Income 35 % of People Who Have a 1 35 25 31.4% Bachelor's Degree 1 29 35.9 Median Age 35 Gini Coefficient (Measure of .44 33 1 35 Income Equality) Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Hampton Roads Gross Product Inflation ‐ Adjusted 2009 Dollars $90 $85 $80 Billions of 2009 Dollars $75 $70 $65 Non ‐ $60 Zero Axis $55 $50 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC Presentation to Virginia Beach 4 Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Annualized Percent Change in Total Employment 4.5% 4.0% Annualized Change in Employment 3.5% 3.0% U.S. Metro Area Average is 2.19% 2.5% (2012 ‐ 2015) 2.0% 1.07% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Metropolitan Areas with Population between 1 and 3 Million Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC Presentation to Virginia Beach 5 Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Employment Decline and Recovery 8% U.S. Virginia Hampton Roads Percent Job Loss Relative to Peak 6% 4% 2% 0% ‐ 2% ‐ 4% ‐ 6% ‐ 8% Months Since Peak Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC Presentation to Virginia Beach 6
10 ‐ Year Employment Change in HR September 2007 – September 2017 Healthcare & Social Federal Government Scientific & Technical Education Services Management Other Services Transportation & Utilities Administrative & Support Leisure & Hospitality State Government Finance & Insurance Wholesale Trade Real Estate & Leasing Information Manufacturing Local Government Retail Trade Construction Change in Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC 7 Presentation to Virginia Beach
1 ‐ Year Employment Change in HR September 2016 – September 2017 Administrative & Support Healthcare & Social Transportation & Utilities Construction Management Other Services Manufacturing Education Services Scientific & Technical State Government Federal Government Wholesale Trade Local Government Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Leasing Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Change in Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC 8 Presentation to Virginia Beach
U.S., Virginia, & Hampton Roads Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 12% U.S. Hampton Roads Virginia 10% Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, HRPDC 9 Presentation to Virginia Beach
Payroll Employment and Labor Force 12 – Month Moving Average 860,000 Civilian Payroll Employment 840,000 Employed Civilians 820,000 Civilian Labor Force 800,000 780,000 760,000 740,000 720,000 700,000 Source: Virginia Employment Commission, HRPDC 10 Presentation to Virginia Beach
Initial Unemployment Claims Deseasonalized 9,000 Recessions 8,000 7,000 Initial Claims per Month 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: Virginia Employment Commission, HRPDC 11 Presentation to Virginia Beach
Relative Per Capita Income Share of US PCI Share of Virginia PCI 110% Ratio of Hampton Roads PCI to 105% U.S. & Virginia 100% 95% 90% Non ‐ 85% Zero Axis 80% 75% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC Presentation to Virginia Beach 12 Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
U.S. and Hampton Roads Real Median Family Incomes Hampton Roads U.S. $80,000 $70,000 Income in 2015 Dollars $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and HRPDC 13 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Earnings Per Worker (Inflation ‐ Adjusted) $45,000 Hampton Roads U.S. Salary and Wages Per Job $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 (2015 $s) $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC 14 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Annualized Real Defense Outlays (U.S. Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted) $1,000 War on Terror Billions of Real Dollars (2016 $'s) 80's Cold $900 War $800 Buildup Korean Vietnam $700 War War $600 $500 $400 $300 30% 41% 27% $200 $100 $0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC 15 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Military Personnel as a Share of Hampton Roads Employment 30% 145K Personnel Share of Total Employment 25% Since 1990 Past 10 years ‐ 56,800 ‐ 22,600 20% 15% 10% 86K Personnel 5% 0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC 16 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Defense Contracts in Hampton Roads (Inflation ‐ Adjusted) $12,000 $10,000 Millions of 2016 Dollars (5 ‐ Year Moving Average) $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Fiscal Year Source: USAspending.gov, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and HRPDC 17 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Defense Expenditures and Statutory Budget Caps $750 Billions in Projected Defense Spending $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 Presidents Budget, 2012 Budget Control Act, 2011 $450 American Taxpayer Relief Act, 2012 Bipartisan Budget Act, 2013 Bipartisan Budget Act, 2015 Actual Defense Expenditures $400 Source: Congressional Research Office, Congressional Budget Office and HRPDC 18 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
General Cargo in Hampton Roads 25 Exports Imports 20 Millions of Short Tons 15 10 5 0 Source: Port of Virginia and HRPDC Presentation to Virginia Beach 19 Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Hampton Roads Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality Industry 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Employment 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC 20 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Retail Share of Total Employment 13.5% 1990 HR Share 13.0% 13.2% U.S. Share Retail Employment as a Percent of Civilian Non ‐ farm Employment 12.5% 2016 12.0% 11.4% 11.5% 1990 12.0% 11.0% 2016 Non ‐ 10.5% 11.0% Zero 10.0% Axis 9.5% Source: Virginia Employment Commission and HRPDC 21 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Hampton Roads Retail Sales and Incomes (Inflation ‐ Adjusted) $25 $90 Personal Incomes, Billions of 2016 Dollars Retail Sales, Billions of 2016 Dollars $80 Hampton Roads Retail Sales $20 $70 Hampton Roads Personal Incomes $60 $15 $50 $40 $10 $30 $20 $5 $10 $0 $0 Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC 22 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Hampton Roads Retail Sales (Local Option Retail: 3 ‐ Month Moving Average) $2.0 Billions of Dollars of Sales (Seasonally Adjusted) $1.9 $1.8 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, HRPDC 23 Presentation to Virginia Beach
Building Permits in Hampton Roads 5 or More Units 3 or 4 Units 2 Units 1 Unit 12,000 10,000 Units Permitted 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC 24 Presentation to Virginia Beach
Closings in Hampton Roads (Seasonally ‐ Adjusted) 3,000 2,500 New Resales 2,000 Total Closings 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Rose and Womble Residential Data Bank and HRPDC 25 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Home Price Index 140 HR VA US 130 Home Price Index (2000 Q1 = 100) 120 110 100 90 80 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 Sources: HRPDC and the Fair Housing Finance Agency 26 Presentation to Virginia Beach
Per Capita Local Revenues (Inflation ‐ Adjusted) $2,500 $2,000 2016 Dollars Per Capita $1,500 $1,000 Other Local Taxes Local Sales and Use Tax $500 Non ‐ Tax Revenue Personal Property Tax Real Property Tax $0 Source: Auditor of Public Accounts, Weldon Cooper Center, BLS, and HRPDC 27 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
Per Capita Expenditure by Category, 2016 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 Hampton Roads Per Capita Expenditure $1,400 $1,200 Virginia Average $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Expenditure Category Source: Auditor of Public Accounts, Weldon Cooper Center, BLS, and HRPDC 28 Presentation to Virginia Beach Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
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