Li ion battery material market trends past and future Christophe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Li ion battery material market trends past and future Christophe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 15, 2023 488 likes •711 views

Information for growth Li ion battery material market trends past and future Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY, Director E-mail: c.pillot@avicenne.com Web: www.avicenne.com Prese sentatio tation Outline The Li-ion battery market in 2010

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SLIDE 1

Li ion battery material market trends past and future

Information for growth

Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY, Director

E-mail: c.pillot@avicenne.com Web: www.avicenne.com

Prese sentatio tation Outline

  • The Li-ion battery market in 2010
  • The Li-ion battery value chain
  • Li-ion battery material market
  • Forecasts & conclusions

AABC BC Europe

  • pe 2011

6-10 June Mainz, Germany

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SLIDE 2

Information for growth

Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

AVICENNE ENERGY

  • Creation: 1992
  • Headquarter: Paris
  • Liaison Office: Japan, USA
  • Director: M. Madani
  • AVICENNE Energy Director : C. Pillot
  • 4 consultants in Paris

Information

  • rmation for Gro

rowt wth

Powering your company’s market strategy with in-dep depth th researc rch

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

AVICENNE ENERGY

AVICENNE MEDICAL The Rechargeable Battery market 2010-2020

April 2011, 20th Edition

Customized Client Projects

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SLIDE 3

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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

Conferences & Exhibitions In Depth analysis Of applications Top management contact network Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers Battery Users, OEM Raw materials suppliers Environment & recycling Safety Substitution technologies: SuperCap, Fuel cells

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

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SLIDE 4

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Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

MORE THAN 130 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE

  • A123
  • Ahlstrom
  • Air Liquide
  • Air Product
  • Alcatel
  • Amperex (ATL)
  • Aros Securities
  • ARC
  • Atofina - Arkema
  • AT Kearney
  • Axeon
  • Bain
  • Battery R&D Association of

Korea

  • B&D
  • BHP Billiton
  • Brand Licencing Parners (BLP)
  • Bourns
  • Bosch
  • BYD
  • Cap X
  • Catella
  • Carbone Lorraine
  • CDN Cobalt
  • CEA/LITEN
  • Celgard
  • Chemetall
  • CIAPS
  • CIBA
  • CNRS
  • Cogema
  • CRU Group
  • CSC Challenge Strategy Change
  • DELTA
  • DGA
  • Dialog Semiconductor
  • Dow Chemical
  • Dupont
  • Duracell
  • EDF
  • Electro Energy
  • Ener 1
  • Energizer
  • ETC AB
  • Facom
  • Falcon Bridge
  • Fairshild semiconductor
  • Fameart
  • FIST
  • Floridienne de Chimie
  • FMC Lithium
  • Fortu Power Cell
  • France Telecom
  • Fulton Innovation
  • GAIA
  • GIL Import Batteries Ltd.
  • GS Melcotec
  • HC Starck (Bayer)
  • HILTI
  • Hitachi Maxell
  • Hollingsworth & Vose Cie
  • Honeywell
  • HPL (High Power Lithium)
  • Hutchinson
  • IER
  • IGL Export.
  • International Component
  • Inco
  • Intersil
  • ITRI
  • ITS
  • Johnson Controls
  • JBC
  • Kodak
  • Kruger
  • Lazard
  • Leclanché
  • Legrand
  • LG Chemical
  • Lion cells
  • Little Fuse
  • Lilipucian
  • Lynas Corp
  • Matsushita
  • Microsoft
  • MTI Micro Fuel Cells
  • Mindbranch
  • Moltech
  • Molycorp
  • Motorola
  • NCCP - Russia
  • Nitech
  • NKKPC – Brett Nelson
  • Norilsk Nickel
  • NTK Powerdex
  • OMG Inc
  • Panasonic
  • Philips
  • PK & Wise
  • PRAYON
  • PSA
  • Rayovac
  • Renault
  • Rhodia
  • Saft
  • Samsung SDI
  • Sanik
  • Schroder Venture
  • Scotent Entreprise
  • Shenzhen High Power

Technology

  • Schott AG
  • SKC
  • SVE - Dassault
  • Solvay
  • Sony
  • Stibat
  • Storck
  • Toda Kogyo
  • TOTAL
  • Total Wireless Solution
  • Toyota
  • Tyco
  • Umicore
  • Uniross
  • Varta
  • Warburgpincus
  • World Industrial Information

Center

  • WR Grace & Cie
  • Zebra
  • ZPower

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

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SLIDE 5

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OUTLINE

  • 1. THE LI-ION BATTERY MARKET IN 2010
  • 2. THE LI-ION BATTERY VALUE CHAIN
  • 3. LI-ION BATTERY MATERIAL MARKET
  • 4. FORECASTS & CONCLUSIONS

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

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SLIDE 6

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THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010

18,5 1,6 1,6 7,9 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 1990 2000 2010 Billion $ Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid 30 BILLION US$ & 3-4% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010) 12,0 8,1 7,4 1,5 0,6

  • 5,0

10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 1990 2000 2010 Billion $ STORAGE TRACTION INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE SLI AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

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SLIDE 7

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WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET (M$)

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 M US$

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000 - 2010

NiCd NiMH Li-ion

CAGR 00/10: +10% CAGR 00/10: +3% CAGR 00/10: -7%

2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 M US$

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000 - 2010

HEV Others Power tools Portable PCs Cellular Phones

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SLIDE 8

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WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET (MWh)

5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 MWh

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 2000-2010

Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-Ion

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

CAGR 00/10: +26% CAGR 00/10: +2% CAGR 00/10: -1%

5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 MWh

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 2000-2010

Automotive Others Power Tools Portable PCs Celllular Phones

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SLIDE 9

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LI-ION IN 2010

MAIN APPLICATION: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

  • 1 000

2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

3 800 M Li-ion cells – 22 500 MWh 8 000 M$

CAGR 2005/2010: +21% per year in volume +10% per year in value

  • 200

400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010

Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games Others

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

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SLIDE 10

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LIB VALUE CHAIN IN 2010

CATHODE SUPPLIERS 44 OOO T Revenues: 1,6 B$ Gross Margin: 20-25% ANODE SUPPLIERS 24 000 T Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: 30-35% ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS 15 000 T Revenues: 0,3 B$ Gross Margin: 35% SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 300 M m² Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: > 40 % CELL MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 8 B$ Gross margin: <10% ANCILLARY Revenues: 0,5 B$ PACK MANUFACTURERS Revenues: 9,5 B$ Gross margin: <10% AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

  • > Cell makers & raw material suppliers relationship
  • > Raw material new entrants
  • > Entry barriers for raw materials suppliers
  • > Raw material impact on battery efficiency
  • > Raw material cost and main trends
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SLIDE 11

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CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

CATHODE SUPPLIERS 44 OOO T Revenues: 1,6 B$ Gross Margin: 20-25%

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 Tons of Active Cathode materials

Cathode active materials for Li-ion & Pol batteries, in Tons, 2000-2010

LFP NCA NMC LMO LCO Nippon Chemical 3% Seimi Chemical 2% Nichia Corp 24% L&F 2% Umicore Korea 27% Toda Kogyo Corp 6% Chinese local 12% Matsushita 3% BYD 3% Tanaka chem 2% Others 16%

Cathode active materials suppliers market share, in volume, 2010

SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011

2,2 M HEV in 2015 3,5 M in 2020 35% Li-ion in 2020 0.1 M P-HEV in 2015 0.4 M in 2020 100% Li-ion 200 000 EV in 2015 1M in 2020 100% Li-ion

Assumptions

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SLIDE 12

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ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

Hitachi Chemical 34% Nippon Carbon 19% JFE Chemical 8% Mitsubishi Chemical 4% Shenzhen BTR 12% Others 23%

Anode active materials suppliers market share, in volume, 2010

5000 10000 15000 Natural Graphite Artificial Graphite Meso-Phase Amorphous Carbon Low cristalinity Si or Sn Type Tons

Anode active materials by type, in volume, 2006 - 2010

2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

ANODE SUPPLIERS 24 000 T Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: 30-35%

SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011

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SLIDE 13

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THE SEPARATOR FOR LIB MARKET

ASAHI 29% CELGARD 23% TORAY- TONEN 26% UBE 7% ENTEK 5% SK 9% SUMITOMO 1%

The LIB separator market worldwide in value (M $) 2010 by competitors 105 110 146 196 245 285 377 428 473 481 533 100 200 300 400 500 600 The LIB separator market worldwide in value (M $) 2000-2010 CAGR 2000/2010: +18%

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 300 M m² Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: > 40 %

SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011

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SLIDE 14

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THE ELECTROLYTE FOR LIB MARKET

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS 15 000 T Revenues: 0,3 B$ Gross Margin: 35%

1000 2000 3000 4000 Sanyo Sony Panasonic SDI LG Chem BYD Lishen Others Tons

Electrolyte suppliers & battery makers relationship in 2010

UBE CHIEL Mitsubishi Chem Tomiyama Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong In-house Others

Ube 21% Mitsubishi 15% Mitsui 1% Tomiyama 12% Samsung Chiel 33% Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong 8% Others 10%

Electrolyte suppliers, market shares in 2010

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SLIDE 15

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LONG TERM HEV FORECAST FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

AVICENNE Oct 2009 Deutsche Bank (June 2008) Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009) Credit Suisse

Nomura (March 2009)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2005 2010 2015 2020 Millions

HEV FORECASTS (Million)

AVICENNE (Oct 2009) Deutsche Bank (June 2008) Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009) IIT (March 2010) Credit Suisse Nomura (March 2009) AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION, MARCH 2011

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SLIDE 16

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LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICES AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

Cellular Phones

(to = 1994)

Portable PCs

(to = 1994)

Power Tools (to = 2004) AVICENNE (1)

to=2010

AVICENNE(2)

to=2010

IIT(3)

(to=2009)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Li-ion penetration in electronic devices & HEV YEARS

(1) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario (2) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario (3) IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, Slide 5

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

SOURCE: AVICENNE COMPILATION, MARCH 2011

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SLIDE 17

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LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV

  • Li-ion is THE solution for the future
  • BUT, SAFETY, LIFE TIME & COST issues
  • Lot of technical solutions (NMC, NCA, LFP, LCO...)
  • Lot of EXPENSIVE Developments…

So,

  • Lot of JV, partnerships etc...

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion Volts 201.6 201.6 Cells 168 (28*6) 56 Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh Weight 38 kg 25 kg T°C Range + + Cyclability + ++ Safety Cost TOYOTA NISSAN HONDA FORD MITSUBISHI DAIMLER BYD AUTO BOSCH CONTINENTAL JC PANASONIC PEVE NEC AESC GSY JV (HEV) LEJ (EV) SDI SB LiMotive SAFT JV BYD JV in China HEV, EV ENAX Partner MAGNA Partner

JOINT VENTURE & STRONG PARTNERSHIP

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

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SLIDE 18

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LI-ION BATTERY COST

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 $/kWh

LI-ION BATTERY COST CELLS / PACK 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kWh

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV AVICENNE FORECASTS

BMS Pack Cost Cell Cost Other Materials Cathode

2015* 2020**

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year ** USBAC Goal in 2020

Source : AVICENNE Compilation, March 2011

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SLIDE 19

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HEV, P-HEV & EV LONG TERM FORECASTS EV ENERGY NEED: 25 MORE THAN HEV!

4 50 45 400 1000 10000 25000 1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 Mobile Phone Portable PC Piower Tools E-bikes HEV P-HEV EV Average Wh per device AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011

AVICENNE CONSERVATIVE IIT (March 2010) Deutsche Bank Roland Berger AVICENNE REALISTIC IIT (March 2011)

1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

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SLIDE 20

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TOTAL LIB DEMAND

Assumptions

2,2 M HEV in 2015 3,5 M in 2020 35% Li-ion in 2020 0.1 M P-HEV in 2015 0.4 M in 2020 100% Li-ion 200 000 EV in 2015 1M in 2020 100% Li-ion

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY

  • 5 000

10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 M Wh

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020 (Scenario 2)

EV 25 kWh P-HEV 10 kWh HEV 1 kWh 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 M Wh

Total battery demand (M Wh) 2005 – 2020

EV 25 kWh P-HEV 10 kWh HEV 1 kWh Li-ion except Auto NiMH except Auto NiCd

SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011

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SLIDE 21

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TAKEAWAYS

  • Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable

PCs & electronic devices

  • For automotive, the battery technology

is today the NiMH, we don’t expect the Li-ion to be significant on the HEV mass market in the next few years

  • P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion
  • 1 M EV represent roughly 20 000 MWh,
  • r 40 000 tones of cathode materials!
  • 1M EV represent from 3 to 5 Billion US$

revenues for Li-ion materials

  • EV expectations attract now large

Chemical companies

  • New materials are needed to meet

Automotive standards

AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M US$

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020 - PACK LEVEL

NiCd NiMH Li-ion NiMH for HEV Li-ion for HEV, PHEV, EV