Information for growth Li ion battery material market trends past and future Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY, Director E-mail: c.pillot@avicenne.com Web: www.avicenne.com Prese sentatio tation Outline • The Li-ion battery market in 2010 AABC BC Europe ope 2011 • The Li-ion battery value chain 6-10 June • Li-ion battery material market Mainz, Germany • Forecasts & conclusions
AVICENNE ENERGY Information for growth Information ormation for Gro rowt wth Powering your company’s market strategy with in -dep depth th researc rch Creation: 1992 Headquarter: Paris Liaison Office: Japan, USA Director: M. Madani AVICENNE Energy Director : C. Pillot 4 consultants in Paris AVICENNE AVICENNE ENERGY MEDICAL The Rechargeable Customized Battery market Client 2010-2020 Projects April 2011, 20 th Edition Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION Information for growth Top management In Depth analysis Cross Check Analysis contact network Of applications Battery Makers Substitution Battery Users, technologies: SuperCap, Fuel OEM cells Conferences & Exhibitions Raw materials Safety suppliers Environment & recycling Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
MORE THAN 130 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE Information for growth A123 DGA Intersil Renault Ahlstrom Dialog Semiconductor ITRI Rhodia Air Liquide Dow Chemical ITS Saft Air Product Dupont Johnson Controls Samsung SDI Alcatel Duracell JBC Sanik Amperex (ATL) EDF Kodak Schroder Venture Aros Securities Electro Energy Kruger Scotent Entreprise ARC Ener 1 Lazard Shenzhen High Power Atofina - Arkema Energizer Leclanché Technology AT Kearney ETC AB Legrand Schott AG Axeon Facom LG Chemical SKC Bain Falcon Bridge Lion cells SVE - Dassault Battery R&D Association of Fairshild semiconductor Little Fuse Solvay Korea Fameart Lilipucian Sony B&D FIST Lynas Corp Stibat BHP Billiton Floridienne de Chimie Matsushita Storck Brand Licencing Parners (BLP) FMC Lithium Microsoft Toda Kogyo Bourns Fortu Power Cell MTI Micro Fuel Cells TOTAL Bosch France Telecom Mindbranch Total Wireless Solution BYD Fulton Innovation Moltech Toyota Cap X GAIA Molycorp Tyco Catella GIL Import Batteries Ltd. Motorola Umicore Carbone Lorraine GS Melcotec NCCP - Russia Uniross CDN Cobalt HC Starck (Bayer) Nitech Varta CEA/LITEN HILTI NKKPC – Brett Nelson Warburgpincus Celgard Hitachi Maxell Norilsk Nickel World Industrial Information Chemetall Hollingsworth & Vose Cie NTK Powerdex Center CIAPS Honeywell OMG Inc WR Grace & Cie CIBA HPL (High Power Lithium) Panasonic Zebra CNRS Hutchinson Philips ZPower Cogema IER PK & Wise CRU Group IGL Export. PRAYON CSC Challenge Strategy Change International Component PSA DELTA Inco Rayovac Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
OUTLINE Information for growth 1. THE LI-ION BATTERY MARKET IN 2010 2. THE LI-ION BATTERY VALUE CHAIN 3. LI-ION BATTERY MATERIAL MARKET 4. FORECASTS & CONCLUSIONS Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010 Information for growth 30 BILLION US$ & 3-4% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010) 30,0 0,6 30,0 1,5 25,0 7,9 25,0 7,4 1,6 20,0 20,0 1,6 STORAGE Billion $ Li-ion Billion $ 8,1 TRACTION 15,0 15,0 NiMH INDUSTRIAL NiCD PORTABLE 10,0 Lead Acid 10,0 SLI 18,5 12,0 5,0 5,0 - 0,0 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET (M$) Information for growth Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000 - 2010 2000 - 2010 12 000 12 000 10 000 10 000 8 000 8 000 CAGR 00/10: +10% HEV 6 000 6 000 M US$ Others M US$ Power tools 4 000 4 000 Portable PCs Cellular Phones 2 000 2 000 CAGR 00/10: +3% CAGR 00/10: -7% 0 0 NiCd NiMH Li-ion Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET (MWh) Information for growth The worldwide rechargeable battery The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 2000-2010 market, MWh, 2000-2010 30 000 30 000 25 000 25 000 20 000 20 000 MWh MWh CAGR 00/10: +26% Automotive 15 000 15 000 Others Power Tools 10 000 10 000 Portable PCs Celllular Phones 5 000 5 000 CAGR 00/10: +2% CAGR 00/10: -1% 0 0 Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-Ion Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
LI-ION IN 2010 MAIN APPLICATION: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK Information for growth CAGR 2005/2010: 3 800 M Li-ion cells – 22 500 MWh +21% per year in volume 8 000 M$ +10% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010 M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010 9 000 1 800 8 000 1 600 7 000 1 400 6 000 1 200 M $ 5 000 1 000 M $ 4 000 800 3 000 600 2 000 400 1 000 200 - - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games Others Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
LIB VALUE CHAIN IN 2010 Information for growth CATHODE SUPPLIERS 44 OOO T PACK CELL Revenues: 1,6 B$ MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS Gross Margin: 20-25% Revenues: 8 B$ Revenues: 9,5 B$ ANODE SUPPLIERS 24 000 T Gross margin: <10% Gross margin: <10% Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: 30-35% ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS 15 000 T Revenues: 0,3 B$ Gross Margin: 35% -> Cell makers & raw material suppliers relationship SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS -> Raw material new entrants 300 M m² -> Entry barriers for raw materials suppliers Revenues: 0,5 B$ -> Raw material impact on battery efficiency Gross Margin: > 40 % -> Raw material cost and main trends ANCILLARY Revenues: 0,5 B$ Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - MAINZ, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS Information for growth CATHODE SUPPLIERS Assumptions 44 OOO T Revenues: 1,6 B$ 0.1 M P-HEV in 2015 2,2 M HEV in 2015 200 000 EV in 2015 0.4 M in 2020 3,5 M in 2020 Gross Margin: 20-25% 1M in 2020 100% Li-ion 35% Li-ion in 2020 100% Li-ion Cathode active materials for Li-ion & Pol Cathode active materials suppliers batteries, in Tons, 2000-2010 market share, in volume, 2010 Tons of Active Cathode materials 200000 Nippon 180000 Chemical LFP Others 3% Seimi Chemical 160000 NCA 16% 2% Tanaka chem 140000 NMC Nichia Corp 2% 120000 LMO 24% BYD 3% LCO 100000 Matsushita 80000 3% 60000 Chinese local L&F 12% 2% 40000 20000 Toda Kogyo 0 Corp Umicore Korea 6% 27% SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011 Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS Information for growth ANODE SUPPLIERS 24 000 T Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: 30-35% Anode active materials suppliers market share, Anode active materials by type, in volume, 2006 - in volume, 2010 2010 Others 23% 2010 Si or Sn Type 2009 2008 Hitachi Low cristalinity Chemical 2007 34% 2006 Amorphous Carbon Shenzhen BTR Meso-Phase Nippon 12% Carbon Artificial Graphite Mitsubishi 19% Chemical Natural Graphite 4% JFE Chemical 0 5000 10000 15000 8% Tons SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011 Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
THE SEPARATOR FOR LIB MARKET Information for growth SEPARATOR SUPPLIERS 300 M m² Revenues: 0,5 B$ Gross Margin: > 40 % The LIB separator market worldwide in The LIB separator market worldwide in value value (M $) 2010 by competitors (M $) 2000-2010 CAGR 2000/2010: +18% SUMITOMO 600 533 1% SK 473 481 9% ENTEK 500 428 5% 377 400 UBE ASAHI 7% 29% 245 285 300 196 200 105 110 146 100 TORAY- TONEN CELGARD 0 26% 23% SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2010-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2011 Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 AABC EUROPE 2011 - JUNE 6 - 10 - Mainz, GERMANY c.pillot@avicenne.com
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