Current Status and Future Trends for the Lithium-ion Battery Market Focus on Power Tools, Robotics and Cordless Devices Christophe PILLOT July 11 th , 2019 AVICENNE ENERGY London Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2019 • The Li-ion battery market – Focus on power tools Christophe PILLOT • Li-ion Battery market Forecasts + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com
WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET OVERVIEW Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies) Expected CAGR 18-30 (%) Current Status and Future 95 +8% Trends of the Global Li-ion 88 Battery Market – Focus on ~ +2-3 % 82 Primary 14 Power Tools 13 (1) 12.5 Rechargeable +7-9% 81 75 69 July 11 th , 2019 London 2016 2017 2018 (Est.) Christophe PILLOT (1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2 Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 2000 400 Million Units / year Million Units/Year Li-ion 1500 300 NiMH 155 M Current Status and Future Tablets 1000 200 Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on 500 100 164 M Power Tools Portable PCs 0 0 2000 2018 2000 2018 Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) Tons of cathode active materials 3 400000 2.6 > 340 000 300000 July 11 th , 2019 2 London $/Wh Tons 200000 1 100000 < 0,15 7 000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT 2000 2018 2000 2018 + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 3 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share) 700,000 400,000 Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion 350,000 Battery Market – Focus on 600,000 Power Tools 300,000 Others (Flow battery, 500,000 NAS, …) 250,000 Li-ion 400,000 MWh MWh 200,000 NiMH 300,000 150,000 NiCD July 11 th , 2019 200,000 Lead Acid London 100,000 100,000 50,000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018 80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level 1 9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018) Current Status and Future 80 80 Others (Flow Trends of the Global Li-ion OTHERS 70 70 battery, NAS, …) Battery Market – Focus on 40 60 60 AUTOMOTIVE Power Tools Billion US $ Li-ion Billion US$ 50 50 INDUSTRIAL 40 40 NiMH E-BIKES 30 30 20 20 POWER TOOLS 37,5 10 NiCD 10 PORTABLE 0 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SLI 1990 2005 2014 2016 2018 Lead Acid July 11 th , 2019 London SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV Christophe PILLOT OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen + 33 1 44 55 19 90 DC converters, invertors…) not included concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard , … c.pillot@avicenne.com 5 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019
LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS >160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018 +24 % per year in Volume 2000: < 2GWh Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2018 Current Status and Future Portable Phones 180,000 Trends of the Global Li-ion Electronics 17% 17% Battery Market – Focus on 160,000 Power Tools 140,000 Others 120,000 Portable PC 66% M Wh Industrial, ESS 100,000 80,000 2018: 160 GWh Auto, E-bus 60,000 China July 11 th , 2019 Auto, E-bus 40,000 Auto, e-bus Excl. London China Auto, E-bus China 20,000 44% Excl. China 20% - Electronic 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 devices Electronic Industrial, ESS Christophe PILLOT devices 5% (1) Cell level Others + 33 1 44 55 19 90 20% Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e- bikes… 11% c.pillot@avicenne.com 6 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2018: US $ +80 BILLION 16,000 90,000 EV, E-Bus 80,000 14,000 Portable Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion 70,000 SLI 12,000 Others Battery Market – Focus on Others Power Tools 60,000 ESS US $ 27 10,000 ESS UPS Billion for 50,000 “other” Telecom 8,000 UPS applications 40,000 Other Motive Telecom 6,000 Forklift 30,000 Other Motive Power Tools 4,000 July 11 th , 2019 Forklift 20,000 E-Bikes London Power Tools 2,000 10,000 E-Bikes 0 0 Lead Acid LIB Others 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power Christophe PILLOT electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 7 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019
BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 2018-2030 Applications covered Parameters analysis Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Current Status and Future Main segment trends Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Trends of the Global Li-ion Tablets Battery Market – Focus on Power need trends (volume, Power Bank Power Tools Camcorders weight, capacity, running time) Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Penetration rate for each Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, Chemistry, each form factor, RC Cars, Toys Drones 2018 -2030 Forecasts Hoverboard E-bikes July 11 th , 2019 OEM strategies and positions Power tools London Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-buses , Tram , Main drivers & limiters Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large) Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 8
2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, application (3C) by form factor (3C) Current Status and Future 6000 CAGR 18-30: + 4% Trends of the Global Li-ion 60000 Battery Market – Focus on 5000 Power Tools 50000 Other Portable 4000 Electronics M cells/year 40000 Tablets 3000 30000 MWh Portable PCs 2000 20000 July 11 th , 2019 1000 London Cellular Phones 10000 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 Li-Pouch Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses c.pillot@avicenne.com (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 9
HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS Realistic Scenario HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured EV manufactured 8 35 100% 16 70 7,5 13,8 Current Status and Future World Excl. 90% 7 China 14 Trends of the Global Li-ion 30 60 Battery Market – Focus on 80% 6 Power Tools 12 25 50 70% 5 10 7.4 World Excl. Million cars Million cars 60% Million cars % Li-ion HEV kWh / Pack 20 China 40 6.0 World Excl. China 4 50% 8 3,4 6,5 15 30 28.8 40% 3 6 30% 2.9 July 11 th , 2019 10 20 2.5 2 4 London 20% 1,3 13.8 2,6 6.4 5 10 1 0,7 2 1,5 0.9 10% 0.8 3.6 1.5 3.4 5.2 China 0.5 China 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.1 2.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 1 0 0% 0 0.08 0 0 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2018 2020 2025 2030 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 HEV: 1kWh battery / car PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car c.pillot@avicenne.com 10
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV 2030 FORECASTS (REALISTIC SCENARIO) Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) needs (M$) CAGR 2015-2030: +26% CAGR 2015-2030: +18% Current Status and Future 1200000 140000 Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on Power Tools 120000 1000000 100000 800000 80000 600000 60000 M Wh M $ 400000 July 11 th , 2019 40000 London 200000 20000 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Christophe PILLOT 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV 12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV + 33 1 44 55 19 90 EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China EV EV & PHEV China E-bus c.pillot@avicenne.com E-Bus excl. China 11 E-bus excl. China
TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL 1 ) Application details US$ 25 Billion in 2017 (1) E-Bikes Current Status and Future Power Tools 13% Others Trends of the Global Li-ion 8% 28% Battery Market – Focus on Power Tools Forklift 13% ESS 12% Telecom UPS Other Motive 13% 12% 1% July 11 th , 2019 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017 London 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Christophe PILLOT 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,… 12
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