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Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Modeling updates in the transportation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Modeling updates in the transportation sector For AEO2016 Working Group March 09, 2016 | Washington, DC By Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, Mark Schipper, and David Stone Office of Energy Consumption and

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U.S. Energy Information Administration

www.eia.gov Independent Statistics & Analysis

Annual Energy Outlook 2016

For AEO2016 Working Group March 09, 2016 | Washington, DC By Trisha Hutchins, Melissa Lynes, John Maples, Mark Schipper, and David Stone Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis

Modeling updates in the transportation sector

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Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016

  • New regional stock model for on-road vehicles

– Reflects Polk annual data for cars, light trucks, Class 2B, Class 3, Class 4-6, and Class 7&8 vehicles through 2014 by Census Division (CD) – Incorporates revisions to fleet and household vehicle allocations

  • Revised and updated travel model for LDVs

– Updated historical population, licensed driver and travel data – Restructured age cohort for licensed driver to align with travel data – Re-estimated parameters in travel demand equations

  • International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) emission

control and efficiency standards -- vessels operating in Emission Control Areas (ECA)

– Reflect ship efficiency improvements, shipping demand changes, and fuel price fluctuations – Incorporates standards impacting technology and fuel choices as compliance pathways; with growth tied to U.S. trade flows

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 2

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Updates to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (continued)

  • Updated historical sales shares for cars and light trucks
  • Updated historical AFV sales for LDVs

– Choice model re-calibrated to reflect historical sales data for FFVs, Diesels, HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs – Includes behavior adjustments to reflect current issues associated with diesel vehicle sales and expected recovery

  • Incorporates latest California ZEV mandates

– Includes Section 177 (CAA) states adopting all California emission regulations:

  • CD1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont
  • CD2: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
  • CD5: Maryland
  • CD9: Oregon
  • Updated CAFE compliance for model years 2009-14

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 3

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ZEV mandates

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 4

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100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Battery electric vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

5

History 2014 Projections

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Plug-in hybrid vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Hybrid vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

7

History 2014 Projections

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Natural gas vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

8

History 2014 Projections

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20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Fuel cell vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

9

History 2014 Projections

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Electric vehicle stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 PHEV HEV NGV FCV AEO2015 AEO2016 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Other ZEV effected vehicle stocks in 2040

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a 11

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Fuel economy

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 12

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Car sales as a percent of new light-duty vehicle sales

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 miles per gallon (mpg)

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

New car fuel economy lower in history

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 History 2014 AEO2016

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Projections

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20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 miles per gallon (mpg)

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

New light-duty truck fuel economy lower in history

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 History 2014 AEO2016

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Projections

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Vehicle stock update

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 16

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100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Gasoline light-duty vehicle stock – cars

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014 AEO2016 AEO2015

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History Projections

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80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Gasoline light-duty vehicle stock – light trucks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014 AEO2016 AEO2015

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History Projections

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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Gasoline commercial light truck vehicle stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014 AEO2016 AEO2015

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History Projections

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3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 thousands

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Diesel commercial light truck vehicle stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

2014 AEO2016 AEO2015

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History Projections

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Light-medium-duty vehicle (Class 3) stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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1 2 3 4 5 6 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Medium-duty vehicle (Class 4-6) stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 millions

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Heavy-duty vehicle (Class 7-8) stocks

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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Marine vessels

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 24

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Outside ECA SOx standard Inside ECAs Outside ECA SOx standard with 2025 extension 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Distillate fuel oil Residual fuel oil LNG

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Sources: International Maritime Organization and Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

MARPOL impacts fuel choice in ECA int’l shipping

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 25

sulfur ppm trillion btu

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Transportation energy

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 26

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Trends in the Annual Energy Outlook 2016

  • Transportation energy consumption declines between 2014 and 2040 (27.6 quadrillion Btu

to 26.5 quadrillion Btu)

– Energy consumption peaks in 2018 (28.8 quadrillion Btu)

  • LDV energy consumption falls from 15.6 quadrillion Btu to 11.8 quadrillion Btu

– Peaks in 2017 (16.2 quadrillion Btu)

  • HDV energy consumption increases from 5.4 quadrillion Btu to 6.9 quadrillion Btu

– Higher freight travel demand than increase in efficiency

  • Aircraft, maritime, and rail energy consumption similar (+/- 0.1 quadrillion Btu) in 2014 and

2040.

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 27

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Comparison of Annual Energy Outlook 2016 and Annual Energy Outlook 2015

  • Transportation energy consumption in 2040 in AEO2016 compared to the AEO2015 Oil

Export Reference case basically unchanged

– Considerable variation between projections in intervening years due primarily to LDV energy consumption

  • LDV energy consumption in 2040 lower in AEO2016

– 2040: -0.4 quadrillion Btu

  • HDV energy consumption lower in AEO2016

– 2040: -0.03 quadrillion Btu

  • Aircraft energy consumption lower in AEO2016

– 2040: -0.09 quadrillion Btu

  • Commercial light truck (CLT), rail, and other energy consumption higher in AEO2016

– 2040: 0.23, 0.15, 0.14

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 28

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2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 billion miles

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

LDV miles traveled increases in the near-term due to lower fuel prices, but declines long-term due to economic factors compared to AEO2015

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 History 2014 AEO2016

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Projections

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Light-duty vehicle energy demand

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Heavy-duty vehicle energy demand

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d030316a

AEO2015 AEO2016

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History 2014 Projections

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24 26 28 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016

Transportation energy consumption higher in the near term due to growth in LDV travel demand

Discussion purposes only - Do not cite or circulate Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case d022516a

AEO2015 2014 AEO2016

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History Projections

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Discussion/questions

Trisha Hutchins | phone: 202-586-1029 | email: patricia.hutchins@eia.gov Melissa Lynes | phone: 202-586-5192 | email: melissa.lynes@eia.gov John Maples | phone: 202-586-1757 | email: john.maples@eia.gov Mark Schipper | phone: 202-586-1136 | email: mark.schipper@eia.gov David Stone | phone: 202-586-8851 | email: david.stone@eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo

AEO2016 Transportation Working Group Meeting Washington, DC, March 9, 2016 33