I nvestor presentation Second quarter 2 0 1 8 August - Septem ber 2 0 1 8
2 I nvestor presentation second quarter 2 0 1 8 Contents Financial Calendar bpost at a glance More detail on 2 Q1 8 More on corporate.bpost.be/ investors Highlights 2Q18 – 4 EBITDA bridge – 47 0 7 .1 1 .2 0 1 8 Outlook 2018 – 5 Radial 2Q18 – 48 Outlook 2019-22 – 6 Key financials – 49 ( 1 7 :4 5 CET) Investment rationale – 7 Revenues – 50 Quarterly results 3Q18 Overview – 8 Domestic Mail – 51 Transformation – 9 Parcels – 52 0 3 .1 2 .2 0 1 8 Vision & strategy – 10 & 11 Additional sources of revenues – 53 ( 1 7 :4 5 CET) Business segments – 12 Costs – 54 Interim dividend 2018 announcement Mail & Retail – 13-23 Cash flow – 55 Parcels & Logistics Eur & Asia – 24-32 1 0 .1 2 .2 0 1 8 Parcels & Logistics N. America – 33-39 Dividend policy – 40 Additional I nfo Payment date of the interim dividend Summary of key financials FY17 – 41 EBITDA bridge 1H18 – 57 Balance sheet – 42 Key financials 1H18 – 58 Relationship with State – 43 Revenues 1H18 – 59 Management – 44 Cash flow 1H18 – 60 Sustainability – 45 LT CF guidance – 61 USO & SGEI – 62 Pro forma 2017 financials – 63 European mail market – 64 Key contacts – 65 Disclaim er This presentation is based on information published by bpost in its Second Quarter 2018 Interim Financial Report, made available on August, 8 th 2018 at 5.45pm CET, in its 2017 Annual Report and in its Capital Markets Day presentation of June, 21 st available on corporate.bpost.be/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of 14 November 2007. The information in this document may include forward-looking statements 1 , which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. They speak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities. 1 as defined among others under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
bpost at a glance
bpost at a glance 4 Highlights of 2 Q1 8 – on track tow ards FY1 8 guidance Total operating incom e up 3 2 .7 % € 9 2 8 .4 m • Driven by acquisitions and excellent parcels growth Underlying Dom estic Mail volum e evolution • Driven by better Transactional Mail supported by easy comparable base (-9.9% in -4 .1 % 2Q17 vs. -3.2% in 2Q18) and specific mailings in the quarter Parcels perform ance in line w ith guidance + 2 5 .8 % • Domestic: continued double-digit organic volume growth driven by strong growth of e-commerce and C2C; price/ mix effect of -6.2% fully mix related + € 2 0 2 .9 m • Logistic Solutions: mainly driven by Radial acquisition (€ + 196.1m) Phasing of costs in line w ith FY1 8 trajectory, organic costs under control • Opex from acquisitions (€ + 221.5m) + € 2 4 7 .7 m • Excluding one-offs (€ + 4.5m net), organic cost base impacted by growth of domestic parcels for € + 8.3m and transport cost linked to evolution of international activities € 1 4 0 .4 m Low er EBI TDA as expected im pacted by higher organic costs € 8 2 .6 m BGAAP net profit of bpost SA/ NV up 8 .1 % 2 0 1 8 outlook and back-loaded trajectory confirm ed
bpost at a glance 5 Outlook for 2 0 1 8 1 – m aintained Norm alized EBI TDA at the low end of the € 5 6 0 -6 0 0 m range 2 Dividend paym ent at least at the sam e level as 2 0 1 7 Revenues Operating expenses Increase driven by: Increase driven by: • Growth in dom estic parcels: volume double • Increase in transport cost (reflecting growth in digit, price/ mix effect between -3% and -6% International Parcels & Mail) • Continued growth in international parcels • Consolidation of acquired businesses • Partly offset by volume decline in dom estic • Salary indexation expected as of October 2018 m ail 3 up to -7% , average domestic mail • Partly compensated by continued productivity price/ mix effect of + 4% im provem ents and optim ized FTE m ix and • Continued decline in Banking & Financial • Continued cost optim ization revenue • Radial EBI TDA impacted by phase out • Radial revenues impacted by client churn w ebstore business and higher than expected opex (medical benefits & inflation) not fully compensated by productivity improvements Capex • Recurring and business development investments for new subsidiaries (Radial, Ubiway and Dynagroup) for an estimated total amount of ~ € 140m 1 Outlook for 2018 includes the acquisitions of Radial, Bubble Post, Leen Menken, I mex, M.A.I .L., I nc. and Active Ants 2 EBI T range of € 400m to € 440m as communicated at CMD of June 21 st 3 3Q18 will count 1 working day more on franking machines and 2 more on stamps and 4Q18 will count 2 working days more on franking machines vs. the same quarters of 2017.
bpost at a glance 6 Overall guidance 2 0 1 9 -2 0 2 2 as issued at CMD on 2 1 June 2 0 1 8 Norm alized EBI T in the range of € 3 9 0 -4 4 0 m ; 2 0 1 9 expected to be the low end of the range Revenues Operating expenses • Mail volum e decline up to 9 % by 2022 • Mail allocated operational FTEs to decrease by ~ 5 % p.a. • Price/ m ix com pensating ~ 5 0 % of mail volume decline over 2018-2022 • Parcels allocated operational FTEs in Belgium to increase in line w ith revenue evolution • Revenue from proxim ity and convenience retail network increasing by 1 -2 % p.a. • Other FTEs bpost SA/ NV to decrease by ~ 3 - 4 % p.a. partly offset by SG&A increase due • Double digit yearly volum e increase for BeNe to outsourcing plans parcels with price/ m ix of -3 to -6 % p.a. • W age increase of ~ 2 % (mainly indexation) for • ~ 10% organic revenue grow th in European 1/ 3 com pensated by favorable em ployee m ix e-com m erce logistics in line with sector effect in Belgium • 7 -9 % revenue grow th in North Am erican • Radial North Am erica EBI TDA: from ~ $ 20m e-com m erce logistics from 2017-22 (from 2018e to $ 1 0 0 -1 2 0 m by 2 0 2 2 2019 for Radial North America) Capex • 2019-2022 gross capex: € 130-170m p.a. driven by parcels volume capacity increase and new subsidiaries, e.g. Radial and ~ € 8m yearly capex for Ubiway • Proceeds from building sales: total of € 100m for 2018-2019, total of € 30-40m for 2020-2022 Maintenance of dividend policy At least 8 5 % pay-out of BGAAP net profit: management to deliver earnings to be in a position to sustain dividends
bpost at a glance 7 bpost offers a strong investm ent rationale bpost aims at being a responsible company, delivering a sustainable dividend to its shareholders W hat? We continue to transform the mail and proximity business in the home market to sustain solid cashflows We develop sustainable activities in the high growth e-commerce logistics & parcels business in our Be-Ne home market and key geographies Be-Ne and North America How ? Multiple levers for transform ation of the legacy business : natural attrition, alternative delivery model, stable and predictable regulation, network optimization,… Experienced m anagem ent team with embedded financial discipline and a strong business transformation track record High grow th in e-commerce logistics & parcels: aspired 60% of revenues by 2022 A solid balance sheet with single 'A' credit rating
bpost at a glance 8 A diversified m ail operator w ith a footprint in e-com m erce logistics Revenues % of total Transactional m ail € 808m 27% Dom estic Mail € 253m 8% Advertising m ail Mail & Retail ~ 67% € 1,353m € 3 ,0 2 4 m 1 45% revenues Press € 293m 10% € 5 9 8 .0 m Distribution € 98m 3% 1 9 .8 % EBITDA Additional Retail & Other € 289m 10% sources of € 5 0 1 .6 m revenues Banking and finance € 183m 6% 1 6 .6 % € 832m EBIT 27% Value added services € 102m 3% € 3 2 9 .3 m I nternational m ail € 160m 5% Logistics ~ 32% net profit Parcels & Dom estic € 224m 7% 2 6 ,9 0 6 Parcels average I nternational € 223m 7% € 796m # FTE & interims 26% Logistic Solutions € 349m 12% 2017 figures (normalized) 1 45% Domestic Mail, 27% Additional sources of revenues, 26% Parcels and 1% Corporate revenue
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