Novem ber - Decem ber 2 0 1 8
I nvestor presentation Third quarter 2 0 1 8 Novem ber - Decem ber - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
I nvestor presentation Third quarter 2 0 1 8 Novem ber - Decem ber - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
I nvestor presentation Third quarter 2 0 1 8 Novem ber - Decem ber 2 0 1 8 2 I nvestor presentation third quarter 2 0 1 8 Contents Financial Calendar bpost at a glance More detail on 3 Q1 8 More on corporate.bpost.be/ investors Highlights
2
I nvestor presentation third quarter 2 0 1 8
Financial Calendar
bpost at a glance Highlights 3Q18 – 4 Outlook 2018 – 5 Outlook 2019-22 – 6 & 7 Dividend policy – 8 Capex 2019-22 – 9 FCF 2018-22 – 10 Investment rationale – 11 Overview – 12 Transformation – 13 Vision & strategy – 14 & 15 Business segments – 16 Mail & Retail – 17-27 Parcels & Logistics Eur & Asia – 28-36 Parcels & Logistics N. America – 37-44 Summary of key financials FY17 – 45 Balance sheet – 46 Relationship with State – 47 Management – 48 Sustainability – 49 More detail on 3 Q1 8 EBITDA bridge – 51 Radial 3Q18 – 52 Key financials – 53 Revenues – 54 Domestic Mail – 55 Parcels – 56 Additional sources of revenues – 57 Costs – 58 Cash flow – 59
Contents
Additional I nfo EBITDA bridge YTD18 – 61 Key financials YTD18 – 62 Revenues YTD18 – 63 Cash flow YTD18 – 64 USO & SGEI – 65 Pro forma 2017 financials – 66 European mail market – 67 Key contacts – 68
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as defined among others under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Disclaim er
This presentation is based on information published by bpost in its Third Quarter 2018 Interim Financial Report, made available on November, 7th 2018 at 5.45pm CET, in its 2017 Annual Report and in its Capital Markets Day presentation of June, 21st available on corporate.bpost.be/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of 14 November 2007. The information in this document may include forward-looking statements1, which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. They speak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities.
More on corporate.bpost.be/ investors
0 3 .1 2 .2 0 1 8
( 1 7 :4 5 CET) Interim dividend 2018 announcement
0 6 .1 2 .2 0 1 8
Ex-dividend date (interim dividend)
1 0 .1 2 .2 0 1 8
Dividend payment date
1 9 .0 3 .2 0 1 9
( 1 7 :4 5 CET) Annual results FY18
bpost at a glance
4
bpost at a glance
Highlights of 3 Q1 8
Underlying Dom estic Mail volum e evolution
- Impacted by continued e-substitution, rationalization and competitive advertising
market; increased monthly volatility
Continued strong parcels grow th and Radial in line w ith expectations
- Domestic: continued double-digit organic volume growth driven by strong
e-commerce development; price/ mix effect of -5.5% fully mix related
- Logistic Solutions: mainly driven by Radial acquisition (€ + 184.2m) in line with
- expectations. Preliminary PPA of Radial is included in the financial statements
- 6 .4 %
+ 2 5 .5 % + € 2 5 7 .5 m
Total operating incom e up 3 4 .9 %
- Driven by acquisitions, excellent domestic parcels growth and stable domestic mail
revenues
€ 8 7 3 .7 m
Low er EBI TDA as expected im pacted by higher organic costs BGAAP net profit of bpost SA/ NV 2 0 1 8 outlook, dividend and back-loaded trajectory confirm ed
€ 7 8 .9 m € 2 9 .3 m + € 1 8 8 .8 m
Organic costs im pacted by grow th and cost inflation
- Opex from acquisitions (€ + 212.2m)
- Excluding one-offs (€ + 17.2m), organic cost base impacted by growth of domestic
parcels (€ + 8.5m), transport cost (€ + 11.2) linked to evolution of international activities and cost inflation (€ + 8.3m) in core business
5
bpost at a glance
Outlook for 2 0 1 8 1 as issued on May 2 , 2 0 1 8 – m aintained
Norm alized EBI TDA at the low end of the € 5 6 0 -6 0 0 m range 2 Dividend paym ent at least at the sam e level as 2 0 1 7
Revenues
Increase driven by:
- Growth in dom estic parcels: volume double
digit, price/ mix effect between -3% and -6%
- Continued growth in international parcels
- Partly offset by volume decline in dom estic
m ail3 up to -7% , average domestic mail price/ mix effect of + 4%
- Continued decline in Banking & Financial
revenue
- Radial revenues impacted by client churn
Operating expenses
Increase driven by:
- Increase in transport cost (reflecting growth in
International Parcels & Mail)
- Consolidation of acquired businesses
- Salary indexation effective as of October 2018
- Partly compensated by continued productivity
im provem ents and optim ized FTE m ix and
- Continued cost optim ization
- Radial EBI TDA impacted by phase out
w ebstore business and higher than expected
- pex (medical benefits & inflation) not fully
compensated by productivity improvements
Capex
- Recurring and business development investments for new subsidiaries (Radial, Ubiway and Dynagroup)
for an estimated total amount of ~ € 140m
1
Outlook for 2018 includes the acquisitions of Radial, Bubble Post, Leen Menken, I mex, M.A.I .L., I nc. and Active Ants
2
EBI T range of € 400m to € 440m as communicated at CMD of June 21st
3
4Q18 will count 2 working days more on franking machines vs. the same quarter of 2017.
6
Guidance over 2 0 1 9 -2 2
bpost at a glance
Actuals 2 0 1 8 guidance CMD Guidance 2 0 1 9 -2 0 2 2 436 480 494 497 502 EBITDA 15 18 17 16 537 EBIT 2022 2013 14 19 20 21 572 584 587 598 Low end
- f € 5 6 0 -
6 0 0 m guidance 2 Equivalent to EBITDA3 guidance € 540-600m; 2019 expected to be the low end of the range
Norm alized1 EBI T and EBI TDA €m
EBI T guidance € 3 9 0 m - € 4 4 0 m ; 2019 expected to be the low end of the range Equivalent to EBIT of € 400-440m
1
Normalized EBI T(DA) definition unchanged and excludes non-recurring items of €20m or more, all profits or losses on disposal of activities whatever the amount, non-cash Purchase Price Allocation (PPA) accounting impacts related to acquisitions, reversals of provisions whose addition had been normalized from income (regardless of the amount they represent)
2
As per 1Q18 guidance on 2 May 2018
3
Excluding impact of I FRS16 as of January 2019
7
Key param eters underlying this plan
bpost at a glance
- Double digit yearly volum e increase
for BeNe last-mile
- Price/ m ix ranging from -3 to -6 % p.a.
- ~ 10% organic revenue grow th in
e-com m erce logistics in line with sector
- Parcels allocated operational FTEs in
Belgium to increase in line w ith revenue evolution
- I nflation of 1 .6 % p.a. on average; similar fuel price evolution
- Exchange rate of ~ 1 .2 USD/ EUR
- Statutory Belgian corporate tax rate progressively decreasing from 33.99% in 2017 to 29.58% in 2018-19, and to 25% as
- f 2020
Macro-economics indicators
- Organic plan
M&A
Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia Mail & Retail
- Mail volum e decline from up to 7% in
2018 to up to 9 % by 2 0 2 2
- Price/ m ix offsetting ~ 5 0 % of mail
volume decline over 2018-2022
- Revenue from proxim ity and
convenience retail netw ork increasing by 1 -2 % p.a.
- Renew al of key contracts with the State,
including reset of efficiency gains
- Mail allocated operational FTEs to
decrease by ~ 5 % p.a.
- Alternative operating m odel w ith
flexible, differentiated offering ( D+ 1 and D+ 2/ 3)
Parcels & Logistics North America
- 7 -9 % revenue grow th in
e-com m erce logistics from 2017- 2022 (from 2019 for Radial)
- Radial EBI TDA expected to evolve
from ~ $ 20m in 2018 to $ 1 0 0 - $ 1 2 0 m by 2 0 2 2
- W age increase of ~ 2% (mainly driven by automatic indexation) for 1/ 3rd com pensated by favorable em ployee m ix effect
in Belgium
- Other FTEs bpost SA/ NV to decrease by ~ 3 -4 % p.a. partly offset by SG&A increase due to outsourcing plans
Operating expenses
8
W e create value for shareholders
bpost at a glance
Dividend Policy
Annual dividend of m inim um 8 5 % of BGAAP net profit ( unconsolidated) I nterim in Decem ber of financial year based on 10-month results Final in May of year following financial year Constrained by the net results of a given year + distributable reserves Distributable reserves built gradually as from 2013, primarily to safeguard the dividend level in case of exceptional costs (€ 173m end 2017)
0.93 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.25 1 .3 1 2016
+ 1 6 %
2017 1 .3 1 2018 2019-22 2014 1 .1 3 2013 0.24 1 .2 9 2015 1 .2 6 Final gross DPS (€) Interim gross DPS (€) Dividend at least at the same as in 2017 Management to deliver earnings to be in a position to sustain dividends
9 1 % Pay-out ratio 8 5 % 9 0 % 8 5 % 9 0 % > 8 5 %
9
Perspective on CAPEX evolution 2 0 1 9 -2 2
bpost at a glance
€m
79 91 81 85 121
- 27
- 22
- 27
- 24
52 2021 2013 2019 2020 2022 2018 69 2017 2016
- 491
2015 2014 Gross CAPEX 58 Proceeds from sale of PPE 97 32 Total of €30-40m for 2020-2022 3 .2 % 3 .7 % 3 .4 % 3 .5 % 4 .0 % Gross Capex/ revenues Gain on sales of property, m€ 1 7 .8 1 5 .5 3 3 .4 2 1 7 .0 1 5 .9
- 2019-2022 gross CAPEX expected
betw een € 1 3 0 -1 7 0 m
- Increase driven by parcels volume
capacity increase and new subsidiaries, e.g., Radial, ~ €8m yearly CAPEX for Ubiway Total of €100m for 2018-2019 Net CAPEX In line with standard years 3% to 4%
1
Reported figure, normalized figure = € -12m
2
Reported figure, normalized figure = € 7.3m
10
Cash flow guidance as issued at CMD on 2 1 June 2 0 1 8 - Excess cash expected from 2 0 2 0
bpost at a glance
2 0 2 2
- utlook
- vs. 2 0 1 7
Com m ents 2 0 1 6 A 2 0 1 7 A 2 0 1 4 A 2 0 1 5 A Cash flow from
- perating activities
- f which change in
working capital In line with EBIT guidance 3 5 3 2 6 6 4 5 1 3 6 1 Cash flow from investing activities excluding acquisitions Increase of the investments mainly driven by parcels volume growth and Radial
- 7 0
- 8 5
- 6 9
- 3 2
Free cash flow (before financing) 1 9 4
- 4 8 6
3 7 3 3 1 6 Acquisitions
- 8 9
- 6 6 7
2022 plan based on organic growth
- 9
- 1 4
Net cash m ovem ent
- 7 6
- 6 9
1 1 4 5 2 Financing activities Interest rate on gross debt, debt repayment subject to refinancing schedule
- 1 0
6 7 9
- 1 1
- 1 0
Dividends
- 2 6 0
- 2 6 2
- 2 4 8
- 2 5 4
“at least 85% of BGAAP net income” Expected to generate excess liquidity as of 2 0 2 0
- 41
- 125
47 35 Working capital stabilizing as of 2020 after expected ~ $100m negative impact from Radial spread over 2018-19
11
bpost offers a strong investm ent rationale
bpost at a glance
We develop sustainable activities in the high growth e-commerce logistics & parcels business in our Be-Ne home market and key geographies Be-Ne and North America We continue to transform the mail and proximity business in the home market to sustain solid cashflows Multiple levers for transform ation of the legacy business: natural attrition, alternative delivery model, stable and predictable regulation, network optimization,… Experienced m anagem ent team with embedded financial discipline and a strong business transformation track record High grow th in e-commerce logistics & parcels: aspired 60% of revenues by 2022 A solid balance sheet with single 'A' credit rating
bpost aims at being a responsible company, delivering a sustainable dividend to its shareholders
W hat? How ?
12
A diversified m ail operator w ith a footprint in e-com m erce logistics
bpost at a glance
Dom estic Mail € 1,353m 45%
Transactional m ail
2017 figures (normalized)
1 45% Domestic Mail, 27% Additional sources of revenues, 26% Parcels and 1% Corporate revenue
€ 808m 27%
Parcels € 796m 26% Additional sources of revenues € 832m 27%
Advertising m ail € 253m 8% Press € 293m 10% Dom estic € 224m 7% I nternational € 223m 7% Logistic Solutions € 349m 12% I nternational m ail € 160m 5% Value added services € 102m 3% Banking and finance € 183m 6% Distribution € 98m 3%
Revenues % of total
Retail & Other € 289m 10%
Mail & Retail ~ 67% Parcels & Logistics ~ 32%
€ 3 ,0 2 4 m 1
revenues
€ 5 9 8 .0 m
1 9 .8 % EBITDA
€ 5 0 1 .6 m
1 6 .6 % EBIT
€ 3 2 9 .3 m
net profit
2 6 ,9 0 6
average # FTE & interims
13
Continuous im provem ent is in our DNA. W e have a proven transform ation track record
bpost at a glance
2 0 0 4
- Building of new
sorting centres
- Transformation of
the network
2 0 0 3
Start of continuous
- ptimization of
delivery rounds
2 0 0 9
Implemen- tation of new distribution structure with reduced number of buildings
2 0 1 1 -2 0 2 0
Strategic ‘Vision 2020’ program in mail service
- perations to further increase
efficiency
2 0 0 3
New management & start of the transformation period
2 0 0 6
CVC and Danish Post enter into the capital for 50% -1 share (split 50/ 50), government holds 50% + 1 share
2 0 0 8
Danish Post sells its stake to CVC
2 0 1 3
IPO in June at € 14.5/ share CVC sells 30% in IPO and remaining 20% in December
Transform ation journey Key events
Normalized1 EBIT
1 Normalized figures are not audited
2 0 0 7
Automated round sorting and mail sequencing
2 0 1 7
Launch New Brussels X sorting facility
14
Vision for 2 0 2 2
bpost at a glance
Beyond mail, be an efficient global e-commerce logistics player anchored in Belgium” Efficient provider
- f mail universal,
retail & public services EBI T Progressive profit generation Share of revenues generated in parcels & logistics ~ 60%
15
bpost w ill deliver on 3 strategic aspirations…
bpost at a glance
Mail services to citizens and State remain core and w ill continue to generate profit with a more adapted distribution m odel
1
Drive profitable growth in parcels in BeNe and e-com m erce logistics in Europe
2
CASH GENERATI ON & DI VI DENDS
3
Optimize Radial to deliver
- n the investment thesis in
the promising North Am erican e-com m erce market
16
bpost at a glance
Segm ent Sub-segm ents 2 0 1 7 pro form a revenue 1
Mail & Retail Parcels & Logistics EU and Asia Parcels & Logistics North Am erica
- Parcels BeNe (last-mile)
- E-commerce logistics
- Cross-border (incl. mail & parcels)
- E-commerce logistics
- International mail (US)
- Transactional
- Advertising
- Press
- Proximity and convenience retail network
- Value added services
~ € 2 bn
(53% of total)
~ € 0 .6 bn
(17% of total)
~ € 1 .1 bn
(30% of total)
1 2017 revenue pro forma for the full year effect of the acquisitions (Radial, I MEX, Mail incl. and Leen Menken) – cfr. p.66
…supported by alignm ent of responsibilities dow n to the bottom -line
17
Mail & Retail at a glance
496 356 808 96 2,008 253
Transactional m ail Advertising m ail Press1 Proxim ity and convenience retail netw ork 2 Value added services3 Total Sub-segm ents ~ 8.1m letters handled daily Servicing 5.6m letter boxes ~ 10k distribution rounds per day 5 industrial sorting centers Key facts & figures Revenue Pro forma 2017, €m ~ 2.5k points of presence in Belgium ~ 18.6k operational FTEs
1 I ncludes Ubiway press distribution revenue (AMP) 2 I ncludes Banking & Financial, Retail & Other MRS and Ubiway convenience distribution 3 VAS MRS
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
18
Key value drivers for the Mail & Retail business
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
To From Key value drivers > 50% over 2018-2022 ~ 20% in 20172 Share of mail volume decline compensated through price increase Successful extension / renewal Three contracts until end 2020; compensation contractually set Renegotiation/ retendering of future 6 th Managem ent contract and press concessions Flexible, differentiated offering (prior vs. eco) Fixed D+ 1 based model (everywhere, everyday) Evolution of operating m odel (mail collect and distribution)
- 3.5% p.a. over 2013-17
- 5-6% p.a. over
2017-2022 Operational w orkforce reduction excluding retail network and acquisitions (i.e., collect, transport, sorting, distribution) Up to ~ -9% 1 by 2022
- 5.8% in 2017
Speed of domestic mail volum e decline
1 At comparable scope with regards to 2017, i.e., excluding Ubiway press revenue from AMP that will be integrated within Press sub-segment as of 1Q19 in
line with the new segment reporting
2 Proposed price increase rejected by regulator for small user basket only, not for commercial products
19
Dom estic m ail volum e decline expected to progressively accelerate from -5 .8 % in 2 0 1 7 up to ~ 9 % in 2 0 2 2
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
- 4.2%
- 5.8%
- 4.4%
- 5.7%
- 5.0%
- 5.0%
Key drivers
- E-substitution
at large corporates and Belgian State
- I ntensifying
com petition in advertising media
- Shift to digital
for new spapers & m agazines
- Renew al of
press concessions
- Service level
elasticity
- 5.9%
- 5.3%
- 3.7%
- 5.0%
- 8.1%
- 5.3%
2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 YTD1 8
- 7.5%
- 9.1%
- 3.0%
- 4.9%
- 3.0%
1.5%
- 2.8%
- 3.0%
- 2.8%
- 2.8%
- 3.7%
- 4.1%
2 0 1 9 -2 2
Underlying change in dom estic m ail volum e Transactional m ail Advertising m ail Press
Progressively up to -9% with the alternative
- perating
model
20
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Designated provider of the Universal Service Obligation until end 2 0 2 3 3 key contracts w ith the Belgian State until 2 0 2 0 Postal law of 1 0 February 2 0 1 8 provides stable & predictable m ail pricing fram ew ork
- Collection, sorting, transport and distribution of postal items up to 2kg and single piece postal
packages up to 10kg
- Collect and deliver 5 x per w eek
- Cover full territory of Belgium for collection and delivery of items belonging to universal service
- Apply uniform tariffs and an identical service across the territory
- 6 th Managem ent Contract: for the provision of certain SGEIs, i.e. maintenance of retail network,
cash at counter, cash payment of pensions at home
- 2 press concessions: (1) for distribution of periodicals and (2) for distribution of newspapers
- Single piece m ail & USO parcels falling within “small user basket” are subject to a price cap
- Price cap1 = inflation - (volume evolution + cost reduction factor x efficiency gains sharing factor)
- Volume and operational discounts allow ed for other USO products (bulk)
- Price increases done in practice on a yearly basis: + 4 .7 % on average in 2 0 1 8 on all domestic mail
items
Regulatory aspects
1 Exact formula: Price cap = health index April n-1/ health index April n-2 * (1 – [ expected volume decline/ (expected volume decline + 1)] – 2.8% * 33% ) – 1
21
New Postal Law provides stable and predictable regulatory fram ew ork to increase prices in context of accelerating m ail volum e decline
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
I llustrative exam ple assuming 2% inflation and -6% average volume decline: [ V/ (V+ 1)] with V as the expected negative volume trend on the Small User Basket Fixed by the law at 0.9% (i.e., 1/ 3 of 2.8% efficiency gains target) Ratio of the health index as measured in April of the n-1 and n-2 years Calculation logic Correlation to price cap Larger mail volume decline results in larger allowed price increase Constant and fixed by law Higher inflation results in larger allowed price increase Description Compensation for mail volume decline Mechanism to share 1/ 3 of the efficiency gains target with consumers Compensation for inflation Drivers of the price cap form ula I nflation Volum e decline Efficiency gains 1 0 2 % Price cap1: 7 .6 % 1 0 6 .4 % 0 .9 %
1
Detailed formula: Price cap = (1 + inflation) * ( 1 - [ V/ (V+ 1)] – 0.9% ) – 1 , giving for the above example the following calculation (1+ 2% ) * (1 – [ -6% / (-6% + 1)] – 0.9% ) - 1 = 7.6%
x
Effective as of February 1 0 , 2 0 1 8
22
Price increase and m ix effects expected to com pensate > 5 0 % of m ail volum e decline over 2 0 1 8 -2 2
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail 71 68 67 60 57 13 21 20 27 42 1 7 2 0 1 8 -2 2 1 4 1 6 2 0 1 3 1 5
Domestic mail price/ mix Domestic mail volume
Volum e and price/ m ix im pact on revenue €m
7 2 % 4 5 % 1 8 % 3 0 % 3 1 % > 5 0 % Building on the New Postal Law for price regulated products Price increase on small user basket rejected by regulator
x% Share of volume effect compensated by price/ mix
Key drivers
- Accelerating
dom estic m ail volum e decline up to -9% 1 by 2022
- New price cap
m echanism of Postal Law defining max price increase for small user basket, and guiding price increase for non- price capped products
- Price increase
partly offset by shift to less expensive m ail products
1 At comparable scope with regard to 2017 segment reporting, i.e., excluding Ubiway press distribution revenue (AMP) that will be integrated within Press sub-
segment as of 1Q19 in line with the new segment
23
Managem ent has developed an extended set of cost control options
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Exam ples of cost control options FTE Unit cost Distribution Collect & Transport I ndustrial Mail Centers Operating m odel
- Revise Collective Labor Agreement evolution
- Optimize further FTE mix
- Introduce new generation of Georoute and time potential management
- Simplify process for selected transactions
- Enhance customer experience and productivity through digital (e.g., consumer
preferences)
- Align number of red boxes to mail volume decline
- Stop collect on Saturday and increase flexibility of pick-up, delivery and
dispatch timing constraints
- Optimize mail sorting centers footprint
- Pursue continuous improvement
- Evolve towards a differentiated offering and alternative operating model
- Take measures to address absenteeism
24
bpost w ill evolve tow ards a differentiated offering to accom m odate changing custom er needs
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Acceptance for D+ 3 -4 1 W ithin D+ 3 Optim izing drop density Differentiated offering Operating m odel evolution D+ 1 Mail New spapers
- Same day delivery
- Adjusted “day certain”
distribution frequency: in a given street, mail will be distributed on selective days
- f the week
- D+ 1 delivery w ill rem ain
available as a separate product (“Prior”) Parcels
- D+ 1 offering
No change
2004 2018 2022 2022 ~ 70 ~ 55 < 50 ~ 70 Current m odel: everywhere, everyday Alternative: D+ 3 combined with D+ 1
Share of houses receiving mail on any given day, %
Available to consumers who need D+ 1 delivery Service level agreement (SLA) “within 3 days”
Professionals ~ 92% Individuals 94% 1
1 Based on a bpost study with 1,000 households & 500 businesses (< 200FTE) interviewed in February 2015
25
bpost’s retail netw ork in Belgium is evolving tow ards an integrated proxim ity netw ork
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
662 (28% ) 828 (35% ) Post offices (mail, parcels, bank) 674 (28% ) 220 (9% ) Postal points (mail, parcels) Proximity retail “Kariboo” pick-up points 1 0 0 % = 2 ,3 8 4 + ~ 4 ,0 0 0 stam p shops Com position of retail netw ork in Belgium # point of presence, % Geographical footprint of retail netw ork Franchised
26
Ubiw ay progressing tow ards acquisition rationale
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
2 I nvest in the future of Belgian press by offering PoS press delivery to increase the flexibility & synergies in delivery options for both publishers and newspapers readers 1 Diversify into the grow ing proxim ity and convenience distribution by building on Ubiway’s network of stores, portfolio of concepts (e.g., Press Shop, Relay) and expertise Acquisition rationale Progress on objectives
- New store concept identified and tested;
roll-out ongoing with 10 stores implemented
- Building capabilities (marketing, supply
chain) to re-activate netw ork
- W on SNCB / NMBS tender (end of 2017)
for 30 Relay and 18 Hubiz for 8-14 years
- ~ € 3-4m press synergies already identified
and execution ongoing (~ € 2m to be realized in 2019)
- Agreement with editors on price increase
for new spaper distribution Transversal initiatives
- New governance
model with more centralization, stricter processes with an increased focus on performance management
- New CEO and
changes at N-1 level
- I ntegration of
subsidiaries in distribution to realize synergies on support functions 6 4 5 # FTE 2 8 2 Sales €m # I ntegrated Retail stores 2 2 0 5 ,6 2 2 Distribution to # PoS Key figures for 2 0 1 7
184 35 63 Press distribution (AMP) Distribution (excl. press) Integrated retail
Sales split by activity ( 2 0 1 7 )
€m
27
Operational FTE evolution1
Average FTEs and interims, ‘000
Labor cost w ill benefit from decrease of m ail related FTEs and
- ptim ized em ployee m ix
Operational FTE m ix evolution1 Evolution of operational FTEs allocated to m ail1 Age pyram id1
Operational headcount per age, 31/ 12/ 17
1
bpost SA/ NV scope, excluding retail network
2
Auxiliary postman is c. 30% cheaper than civil servant. FTE mix evolution expected to mitigate up to 1/ 3 of wage drift.
2022 20 15 17 21 14 18 19 16 2013
Shape of ramp-down depending on timing & speed
- f implementation of
alternative operating model
16 2013 15 19.0 18.6 18.5 19.8 14 Allocated to parcels Allocated to mail 18.6 15-20% 80-85% 2017
- 3 .5 % p.a.
~ -5 % p.a. bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail 51% 47% 43% 39% 30% 25% 28% 32% 37% 46% 19% 19% 18% 18% 16% 2022 Civil servant Contractual Auxiliary postman2 Other 6% 7% 7% 7% 15 16 2014 5% 17 5,593 7,294 0-39 40-49 6,842 50+ Civil servants Pay-scale contractuals Non pay-scale contractuals Natural attrition Average natural attrition is expected to range from 1 ,2 0 0 to 1 ,3 0 0 FTEs/ year
- ver 2019-22
28
Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia at a glance
Sub-segm ents Key facts & figures Revenue Pro forma 2017, €m
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
Parcels BeNe ( last-m ile) 1 E-com m erce logistics2 Cross-border ( incl. int’l m ail & parcels) Total 4 Parcel hubs with dedicated parcel rounds in BE ~ 1 ,5 0 0 dedicated parcel rounds + 3 7 0 k parcels per peak day in BeNe 1 sorting location (New Brussels X) + Dyna hubs
- Last-m ile activities in Belgium
and the Netherlands
- Total of ~ 5 0 m parcels in 2 0 1 7
- Fulfilm ent & transport
activities in Europe (incl. Radial EU)
- Majority of cross-border
volum e is inbound m ail and parcels for Europe and Asia
641 222 133 286
1
I ncludes a.o. domestic parcels at the exception of inbound flow, DynaLogic, DynaSure, Citydepot, Eurosprinters, De Buren and Parcify
2
I ncludes a.o. Radial Europe (pro forma FY17), Dynafix, NL & PL fulfilment, Leen Menken (pro forma FY17) and Bubble post
29
Key value drivers for Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
Parcels BeNe ( last-m ile) Sub-segm ents To From Key value drivers Cross-border Natural business evolution Developing international parcel flows driven by e-commerce activity
- Develop international cross-border
parcels, also across continents
- Ability to m aintain international m ail
volume E-com m erce logistics E-commerce logistics in PL, NL & BE and “DynaFix” Higher scale & skills, ability to leverage Radial capabilities
- Ability to organically capture m arket
grow th of ~ 10% p.a. (vs. insourcing, pan-European players) Focus on Belgium (sales force, contracts, DHL partnership) BeNe-wide approach
- BeNe-w ide offering addressing
customer requirements Volume growth rate
- f 20-30% with price/
mix effect up to -6%
- ver 2016-2017
Double-digit growth rate with price/ mix effect of ~ -3% to -6% 4 parcel hubs in 2017 in BE > 15 parcel hubs in 2022
- Optim ized last-m ile operations based
- n parcels characteristics (e.g., size) and
in line with delivery requirements
- Ability to capture profitable grow th in
a competitive environment
30
Four strategic initiatives for parcels BeNe
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
Convenience & Cost leadership Differentiate pricing policy I ntegrated BeNe offering Attract key foreign e-com m erce players 4 strategic initiatives
- Convenience
expressed through Net Prom oter Score KPI
- Dedicated parcel
hubs
- Sorting capacity
- Fulfilm ent
infrastructure
- Transport
- ptimization
- Digital excellence
- Tactical pricing
initiatives
- Partnerships w ith e-com m erce
players
- E2 E service offering (“gateway
to Europe”)
- Dedicated, specialized sales force
- I ntegrated com m ercial offers
- Partnership with DHL Parcels
31
W e have an established position in the Belgian B2 C/ C2 C parcels m arket
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
Unique selling proposition
Offer best last m ile and broadest delivery options, supported by acquisitions and partnerships:
- Home delivery 7/ 7 & evening delivery, including high-end deliveries (2-man)
- > 2,400 pick-up & drop-off points (incl. > 800 open access Kariboo! points)
- 177 parcel lockers in B (> 450 Cubee lockers by end 2018), 61 de Buren lockers in NL
- Click & Collect
- Non-exclusive partnerships with DPDHL for B2C parcel delivery into Belgium
(from Germany/ France & Benelux)
CAGR 2017-20, % 0 -4 % ~ 5 % B2 C C2 C ~ 1 5 % B2 B B2 C C2 C B2 B 2 0 1 7 parcel m arket 1 100% = € 1,285m
1
Source: Effigy
2 0 1 7 bpost dom estic parcels revenue € 224m
32
New partnership w ith DHL Parcels NL w ill allow to cover the full BeNe region and to capture im portant cross-border flow s
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
Com petitive offering
- Very com petitive & dynam ic region
with many large players such as PostNL, DHL, DPD, FedEx Large NL-based e-com m erce players
- Looking for a BeNe w ide offering
w ith regards to last m ile
- Benchm arking prices on a BeNe
level Purchasing behavior
- NL is the m ost im portant
im port country to BE (~ 25% of import flows)
- BE consum ers m ainly buy
from NL players such as Bol.com (7% ) and Coolblue (6%
- f BE online sales)
Launched in June 2 0 1 8
33
The parcels operating m odel w ill be continuously optim ized
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
I ncrease sorting capacity Optim ize distribution cost using drop density of m ail rounds Build dedicated parcel infrastructure to m atch custom er requirem ents
- I ncrease sorting capacity to
cope with increasing volume (optimizing sorting footprint mail & parcels)
- Use technology (e.g. address
recognition)
- Maxim ize letterbox-sized and
non-letterbox-sized parcels in m ail rounds (~ 40% of the parcels)
- Cost advantage due to higher
drop density leading to lower unit costs
- Nationwide netw ork of Parcel
hubs to accommodate distribution of ~ 60% of parcels (that are not in mail rounds)
- 1 5 -2 0 hubs by 2 0 2 2 , with ramp
up in line with parcels growth
- Benefit for custom er
proxim ity and special services e.g. Late-in services, “large scale” evening distribution or same day distribution
34
Additional parcels sorting capacity w ill be gradually built
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
2 0 1 7 2 0 2 2 Base Capacity, K Parcels / day Description Parcel sorting capability footprint 1
- Centralized sorting
capacity in NBX with AX & CX to cover demand in peak periods
- Additional parcel sorting
m achines in existing centers ( LX, GX, AX, CX) to increase capacity
- Build on DHL capacities
The selected scenario to gradually add capacity to all sorting centers offers several advantages such as
- Use freed space from
letters
- Minim ize
transportation costs
Ax Cx NBx
Gx Lx
+
Ax Cx NBx
1
Parcel sorting capabilities of Parcify, Eurosprinters, Citydepot, De Buren & Kariboo not shown on the map
~ 400 ~ 600 + DHL
35
Supported by acquisitions, bpost has initial assets in Europe along the entire value chain of e-com m erce logistics
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia Realtime technology 3 2 1 Fulfilm ent 4 Custom er care Order Delivery
- Phone,
em ail, social media & chat support
- Advanced
analytics
- Order
management
- Paym ent
services, tax services and fraud prevention
- Order
reception in warehouses in the proximity of clients
- Preparation for
shipm ent
- Hybrid transport
netw ork for high- end and urgent delivery
- Last m ile delivery
Poland Germany UK The Netherlands Belgium
Cold chain facility Fulfilment sites Personalized logistics
~ € 1 3 0 m pro forma1 2017 revenue 9 fulfilment centers / facilities2 > 6 0 0 employees 5 countries
1
Assumes FY17 revenue from new acquisitions (Radial, Leen Menken); excludes Active Ants as only acquired in 1Q18
2
I ncluding Leen Menken and Active Ants, excluding bpost sorting centers
E-com m erce logistics operations in Europe E-com m erce logistics offering
36
bpost at a glance – P&L Eur. & Asia
Sales 2015: € 88.5m Normalized EBITDA 2015: € 6.8m (7.7% margin) Initial purchase price: € 51.0m Sales 2017: € 132.2m
Rationale: support grow th strategy of parcels
- We want to broaden the value chain in
e-com m erce
- We will further build out our hybrid netw ork by
adding capabilities to offer high-end deliveries
- We want to extend our footprint in The
Netherlands with a strong player with an excellent track record. DynaGroup is m arket leader on the 2 XL m arket segm ent.
Acquisition of
- n 6 January 2 0 1 7
- EPS & DPS accretive
- ~ 1 0 % revenue grow th for coming years
- Total capex planned € 2 -3 m / year
Financial am bitions
Repair of e.g. sm artphones, coffee m achines, etc. E-com m erce related high-end deliveries requiring non- standard, non-bulk transport with added value activities
- Anytime: same-day, next day, weekend
- Any size: S to 2XL (2man delivery with installation)
- Safe & secure: ID verification & authentication
- Anywhere: active through 7 locations throughout Benelux
Supply chain services for banks and insurance com panies: e.g. sensitive document handling, ID verification
37
Parcels & Logistics North Am erica at a glance
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
Total E-com m erce logistics I nterna- tional Mail Grow th engine for bpost, to be a leading e-commerce logistics player in US with ~ $ 100m-$ 120m EBITDA potential Grow with cross- border com m erce One of the last international m ail providers to deliver profit through infrastructure
- ptimization
US e-com m erce logistics provider fulfilling 7 2 m parcels p.a. with proven client base, IT infrastructure and capabilities along the E2E value chain Capabilities to support m id-sized e-tailers to expand cross-border and last mile distribution in Canada and Australia I nternational m ail solutions and catalogue fulfilm ent through US companies Sub-segm ents Objective Revenue Pro forma 2017, $m
1,265 Cross-border parcels 1512 1003 US m ail 1,0141
1 Revenues in North America, excluding revenues from webstore ($ 28m) and revenues in Europe ($ 40m) 2 I ncluding Landmark Global, Apple Express and FDM, previously under I nternational Parcels 3 I ncluding MSI , I mex, Mail I nc.
38
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
bpost has a global footprint through Landm ark Global and a nation-w ide coverage in the US through Radial
Strategic locations in
1 3
countries
39
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
Key data
- Sales 2 0 1 7 : $ 1 ,0 8 2 m
(of which North America: $ 1,014m)
- Normalized EBI TDA 2 0 1 7 : $ 5 7 m (5.3% margin)
(of which North America: $ 64m, 6.3% margin)
- 6,200 FTEs
- 24 fulfillment centers (of which 2 in Europe)
- 100% acquisition of the shares
- Enterprise Value: $ 8 2 0 m
- Financed through a € 650m 8-year bond issue
carrying a coupon of 1.25% (issued 4 July 2018)
Acquisition of US-based
- n 1 6 Novem ber 2 0 1 7
- Sales 2018e: $ 976m
- Sales CAGR 2019-2022: + 7 to 9% p.a.
- EBITDA 2018e: $ 23m (2.4% margin)
- EBITDA 2022e: $ 100-120m (high single digit margin)
- Capex: maintenance capex of $ 25-30m + growth
capex for capacity expansion & automation
Financial indicators for Radial North Am erica Acquisition rationale
Our growth
- Integrated e-commerce logistics provides access
to a larger and m ore attractive profit pool
- Radial as grow th engine and key profit
contributor Presence in the US and Europe
- Strengthen US position building on presence
with Landm ark Global
- Scale bpost’s e-commerce logistics capabilities in
the Benelux and Europe Strong growth of e-commerce
- e-commerce is grow ing rapidly with US being
an attractive and advanced space (+ 16% p.a. growth of online retail over 2004-2022e)
- Transatlantic e-commerce is grow ing at > 25%
p.a. with 20% of European parcels coming from the US Knowledge and experience
- Know ledge and experience of the e-commerce
logistics chain increase exponentially with the acquisition of an experienced player
40
Radial North Am erica offers m ultiple services across the entire e-com m erce logistics value chain
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
~ 10% Technology Operations
Radial North Am erica assets Processing global payments, maximizing successful authorization and reconciling tax districts and global duties 9 9 .1 % approval rate vs. 97.1% industry average 2 .1 % m anual review rate vs. 25% industry average
Paym ent, Tax, and Fraud Prevention Om nichannel Technology 2
2 2 ,0 0 0 Stores with fulfilment 2 6 ,0 0 0 Dropship suppliers Optimizing efficiency of order management, ship-from- store and in-store pick up Ability to handle com plex orders < 1 0 w eeks to deploym ent vs. competition 1-2 years Scalability of technology
W arehousing & Fulfilm ent
2 2 Fulfilment sites in North America Adapting warehouse management and parcels preparation to e-commerce with pragmatic automation 8 0 % + orders shipped day 0 ~ 1 0 0 % US coverage Experience of scaling up to ~ 2 0 k peak capacity 3 ,4 0 0 + Seats across 5 sites
Custom er Care
Having a single view of customer’s history and profile combined with leading self-service tech # 1 Em ail & Chat and # 2 Phone (StellaService ranks) Advanced data analytics Description and key strengths
Transportation Managem ent
1 0 0 % asset light Managing a large network of carriers for a seamless customer experience Rates 5 -1 5 % cheaper than in-sourcing for mid- sized players Clients reached in 2 .4 days on avg
1 3 5 4
Pro form a rev. $m and % , 2017
- 1 0 7
7 1 7
Fraud Zero softw are
1 ,0 1 4 Total ~ 70% 1 9 0 ~ 20%
41
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
Radial North Am erica m arket dynam ics and com petitive landscape
I ndependent e-com m erce logistics providers Online revenue e-tailers, US Addressable e-com m erce logistics sector
$ 2 0 m $ 2 ,0 0 0 m
$ 4 6 0 bn1 expected US online retail revenue in 2 0 1 7 Radial’s target audience ( $ 2 0 m – 2 bn revenues)
- Mid-market
segment ($ 20-200m
- nline revenue)
- Enterprise
segment ($ 200-600m)
- Some selected
key accounts ($ 600m-$ 2bn) $ 2 7 -3 7 bn addressable e-com m erce logistics Radial’s target audience e-com m erce revenue $ 1 5 0 -1 5 5 bn ~ $ 460bn total US
- nline Retail
e-commerce
1
Source: Forrester Data, Online Retail Forecast, 2017 86 120 74 164 194 309 Jagged Peak Trade Global Genco OHL 1,350 1,385 1,524 DHL e-commerce 1,014 I ngram Micro Digital River Speed commerce Newgistics Radial N. America 2015 2017 2015 2015 2017 2015 2015 2016 Revenue per e-com m erce logistics provider $m, 2016-17 Year of acquisition Ow ner
42
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
Radial diagnostic & action plan
Diagnostic
- Radial has a strong value proposition in a growing industry and the required operations to deliver that
proposition.
- Phase-out of webstore business, decided in 2014, will impact revenue and EBITDA in 2018 & 2019 as
expected for an amount of $ 23m and $ 5m respectively.
- Commercial function requires an improvement to address a number of critical points:
- Customer churn is higher than expected due to: insourcing, bankruptcies, poor fit with clients needs
and insufficient focus on customer satisfaction
- Total Contract Value (“TCV”) of new contracts signed in:
- 2017 was below target
- YTD18 still lags budget
- Lead time in fulfillment and transport between customer decision to start or terminate business with
Radial and top line impact could be around ~ 9 to 18 months
43
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
Radial diagnostic & action plan
50 Supporting functions and IT + 8 0 -1 0 0 20-30 10-20 Grow & Retain 2 0 1 8 e 2 3 Productivity 2 0 2 2 Guidance 1 0 0 -1 2 0
Action plan w ill result in $ 8 0 -1 0 0 m potential EBI TDA im provem ent by 2 0 2 2
1 2 3
- Fuel top-line grow th via new leads, increased conversion rate and
- ptimized pricing
- I ncrease satisfaction and retain clients by installing true client
philosophy (e.g. pursue renewals, improve client qualification, … )
- Continue to im plem ent productivity im provem ent program s, e.g.
‒ Lean warehousing metrics ‒ Improved allocation of clients to distribution centers based on client specifics
- I m plem ent identified im provem ent levers in support functions
(e.g. IT, medical costs, … )
44
bpost at a glance – P&L North America
Purchase Price Allocation of Radial has been review ed
- Preliminary Purchase Price Allocation results in reviewed Radial opening balance sheet for fair value
adjustments by external independent accounting firm as per IFRS 3 practice.
- Initial goodwill has been reduced by $ 155.7m (€ 132.3m) to amount to $ 516.0m (€ 438.4m) following:
– the fair value adjustment (prolongation of useful life) of fixed assets for $ 43.8m (€ 37.2m)
- Radial reported D&A decreased by € 9.5m for 9M18 (1Q18 and 2Q18 restated for respectively
€ 2.5m and € 3.5m, € 3.5m in 3Q18) following the fair value adjustment (prolongation of useful life) of fixed assets – the recognition of intangible assets for $ 132.3m (€ 112.4m) consisting of customer relationships, in-house developed technology and tradename
- Radial reported D&A increased by € 10.2m for 9M18 (1Q18 and 2Q18 restated for respectively
€ 4.3m and € 3.0m, € 2.9m in 3Q18) following the recognition of intangible assets.
- This D&A impact is normalized.
– partially offset by the fair value adjustments of other assets and liabilities for $ 20.4m (€ 17.3m).
- Radial reported EBITDA impacted positively by € + 7.8m for 9M18 (1Q18 and 2Q18 restated for
respectively € + 3.0m and € + 2.2m, € + 2.7m in 3Q18)
- Audit to confirm the full year impact.
45
Sum m ary of key financials FY1 7
bpost at a glance
Note: an Excel download of detailed financials per quarter is available on the website: http: / / corporate.bpost.be/ investors/ results-reports-and-presentations/ quarterly-results
€ m illion
1 Normalized figures are not audited
FY1 6 FY1 7 FY1 6 FY1 7 % Δ Total operating income (revenues) 2,425.2 3,023.8 2,425.2 3,023.8 24.7% Operating expenses 1,838.4 2,425.9 1,838.4 2,425.9 32.0% EBI TDA 5 8 6 .9 5 9 8 .0 5 8 6 .9 5 9 8 .0 1 .9 % Margin (% ) 24.2% 19.8% 24.2% 19.8% EBI T 4 9 6 .5 4 9 2 .9 4 9 6 .5 5 0 1 .6 1 .0 % Margin (% ) 20.5% 16.3% 20.5% 16.6% Profit before tax 4 8 9 .5 4 8 8 .7 4 8 9 .5 4 9 7 .5 1 .6 % Income tax expense 143.2 165.8 165.4 168.2 Net profit 3 4 6 .2 3 2 2 .9 3 2 4 .1 3 2 9 .3 1 .6 % FCF 1 9 3 .9 ( 4 8 5 .8 ) 1 9 3 .9 ( 4 8 5 .8 ) bpost S.A./ N.V. net profit ( BGAAP) 3 0 8 .7 2 9 1 .0 2 8 6 .5 2 9 1 .0 1 .6 % Net Debt/ ( Net cash) , at 3 1 Decem ber ( 4 9 2 .7 ) 2 9 2 .4 ( 4 9 2 .7 ) 2 9 2 .4 Reported Normalized1
Positive tax impact
- f Deltamedia
liquidation € 22.2m € 8.7m linked to amortization on intangible assets (purchase price allocation “PPA” Ubiway, Dynagroup & de Buren) Tax impact of PPA
- n amortization of
€ 2.5m
46
bpost is to retain a robust balance sheet
bpost at a glance
Assets
1 bpost has no pension deficit: as is customary in Belgium all pensions are paid as part of national social security
Equity and liabilities
1 ,6 4 3 .1 1 ,6 1 7 .7 7 2 4 .3 5 9 5 .6 3 2 9 .2 2 5 5 .2 4 6 6 .0 5 4 4 .3 7 1 .0 Cash, cash equivalents & investment securities 3 9 .3 3 9 .1 September 30, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 restated 3 ,2 4 1 .0 Other assets 4 0 .5 Investments in associates Trade & other receivables Inventories PPE & intangible assets 3 ,1 2 4 .3 7 7 7 .8 8 1 0 .3 3 2 6 .9 3 3 1 .1 1 ,3 1 4 .5 1 ,0 4 2 .2 7 5 5 .3 8 8 9 .0 Employee benefits1 6 6 .5 5 1 .7 Dec 31, 2017 restated 3 ,2 4 1 .0 September 30, 2018 Interest-bearing loans & borrowings, bank overdrafts Provisions Trade & other payables and derivative instruments Total equity 3 ,1 2 4 .3
€ m illion Rating and capital allocation
- S&P assigned credit rating
- f ‘A’ to bpost on June 20th,
2018 based on a stand- alone credit profile of BBB
- bpost successfully issued a
€ 6 5 0 m 8 -year bond on July 4th, 2018 with a coupon
- f 1.25%
- bpost seeks to maintain
credit metrics compatible with a solid intrinsic investm ent grade
- Dividends rem ain the
prim ary use of capital allocation as the plan assumes no further acquisitions
47
bpost’s long term relationship w ith the Belgian State
bpost at a glance
State as a long term shareholder
Belgian State has 5 1 % shares bpost’s board is composed of 5 board m em bers1 and CEO appointed by the Belgian State and 6 independent directors Belgian State supports a regular dividend policy
bpost provides SGEI s2 on behalf of the State
2 0 1 6 -2 0 2 0 2 press distribution contracts (newspapers & periodicals) Sixth m anagem ent contract for
- ther SGEIs
Contractual am ounts (excl. inflation3, volume impact & sharing
- f efficiency gains) of € 261.0m in
2016 (actual amount: € 264.9m), € 260.8m in 2017 (actual amount: € 270.0m), € 2 5 7 .6 m in 2 0 1 8 , € 252.6m in 2019 and € 245.6m in 2020
State as im portant custom er
State is a key com m ercial client to bpost Several other agreem ents in place with the State, such as European license plates (won by bpost through tender)
1
Since the Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of May 9, 2018 there are only 3 State appointed board members (incl. CEO). The Belgian State requested bpost to postpone the appointment of three directors to be nominated by the Belgian State to a later date.
2
SGEI stands for Services of General Economic I nterest
3
All amounts need to be adjusted for inflation on a cumulated yearly basis
Shareholder Belgian State Free float # shares 102,075,649 97,925,295 Retail Financial services Press
48
bpost’s m anagem ent team and organization
bpost at a glance
Mark Michiels CHRO Koen Van Gerven Group CEO Nico Cools CIO Dirk Tirez CLO Henri de Rom rée CFO Kurt Pierloot CEO Mail & Retail Pierre W inand CEO Parcels & Logistics North America Luc Cloet CEO Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia
49
Sustainability is at the heart of our activities
bpost at a glance
Selected aw ards and recognition First Sustainable Loan in Belgium 3 -pillar CSR strategy linked to United Nations People
we care about our employees and engage them
Proxim ity
we are close to the society
Planet
we strive to reduce our impact on the environment
Shared Value Creation
- Employee health & safety
- Employee training and
talent development
- Ethics & diversity
- Social dialogue
- Green fleet
- Green buildings
- Waste management
- To our community
- To our suppliers
- To our customers
through our services
- Continuity of our
business
- Employee
satisfaction and engagement
- Customer
satisfaction
€ 300m revolving credit facility with pricing mechanism linked to the sustainability score of bpost
- Financing needs aligned with bpost’s sustainability
and CSR ambitions
- bpost being recognized by its stakeholders as a
highly responsible company
- IPC EMMS Scorecard 2017 (sector index):
# 1 (Sixth Year)
- EcoVadis (clients index): Gold rating
- Ethibel Indexes: reconfirmed as a constituent of the
Ethibel Sustainability Index (ESI) Excellence Europe since 19/ 03/ 2018
- Sustainalytics: score 7 8 % (TOP 2/ 117)
- MSCI: Score A
- ISS: Quality Score: 2 = Low Risk
IPC Environmental Ranking
1 st
Current Trading 3 Q1 8
51
3Q18 1 1 0 .3 8 8 .1 7 8 .9 0 .3 2 0 .2 2 3 .5
- 1 7 .2
- 5 .0
Reported EBI TDA 3 Q1 7 EBI TDA 3 Q1 7 excl.
- ne-offs
One-offs 3Q17 (opex)
- 1 1 .2
- 8 .5
Opex from acquisitions (excl. Radial) Transport costs for international growth Opex Domestic Parcels
- 8 .3
Cost inflation Corporate
- 2 7 .0
2 .9
- 1 .0
Parcels Reported EBI TDA 3 Q1 8 Additional sources of revenues Domestic Mail One-offs 3Q17 (operating income) EBITDA Radial
EBI TDA im pacted by grow th activities and core business cost inflation
Total operating income
€ m illion € -9 .1 m / -1 0 .3 %
Mainly provision reversals
52
3Q18
Radial’s perform ance in line w ith expectations
- 3Q18 revenues below last year driven by:
– Growth from new and existing customers does not compensate clients terminating with Radial – Webstore phase-out and expected client churn in Fulfilment & Transport
- 3Q18 EBITDA in line with expectations but below last year driven by:
– Growth from existing clients, better productivity and tighter control on SG&A spend – Offset by phase-out of (high margin) webstore business and impact of customer churn in Fulfilment & Transport
Reported
€ m 3Q18 Tot al operat ing income 184.2 Operat ing expenses 185.2 Transport 57.6 Payroll and int erim 80.1 Ot her SG&A 39.1 Ot her cost s 8.4 EBI TDA ( 1.0) Margin (% )
- 0.6%
53
3 Q1 7 3 Q1 8 3 Q1 7 3 Q1 8 % Δ Total operating income 647.6 873.7 647.6 873.7 34.9% Operating expenses 537.3 794.8 537.3 794.8 47.9% EBI TDA 1 1 0 .3 7 8 .9 1 1 0 .3 7 8 .9
- 2 8 .4 %
Margin (% ) 17.0% 9.0% 17.0% 9.0% EBI T 8 7 .2 4 0 .6 8 7 .2 4 6 .7
- 4 6 .4 %
Margin (% ) 13.5% 4.7% 13.5% 5.3% Profit before tax 9 1 .4 3 9 .9 9 1 .4 4 6 .0
- 4 9 .7 %
Income tax expense 31.4 12.7 31.4 13.4 Net profit 6 0 .0 2 7 .2 6 0 .0 3 2 .6
- 4 5 .7 %
FCF ( 7 6 .3 ) ( 5 3 .3 ) ( 7 6 .3 ) ( 4 5 .7 ) bpost S.A./ N.V. net profit ( BGAAP) 5 2 .0 2 9 .3 5 2 .0 2 9 .3
- 4 3 .6 %
Net Debt/ ( Net cash) , at 3 0 Septem ber ( 5 1 8 .6 ) 3 5 4 .1 ( 5 1 8 .6 ) 3 5 4 .1 Normalized Reported
Sum m ary of key financials 3 Q1 8 1
3Q18
€ m illion
1
3Q18 figures are not audited
Tax impact of PPA
- n amortization of
€ 0.8m € 6.1m linked to amortization on intangible assets (purchase price allocation “PPA” Radial, Ubiway, Dynagroup & de Buren) Normalized FCF excludes the cash Radial receives on behalf of its customers for performing billing
- services. Radial
routinely remits this cash back to its customers with some delay
54
Total operating incom e
3Q18
€ m illion
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2
I ncluding scope changes: Radial, Leen Menken, BubblePost, Active Ants
3
I ncluding scope changes: I mex, M.A.I .L. I nc.
4
I ncluding one-off 3Q17 operating income
3Q17 ∆ 3Q18 % ∆ Transact ional mail 177.4 1.6 178.9 0.9% Advert ising mail 55.6
- 0.5
55.1
- 0.8%
Press 67.8
- 0.8
67.0
- 1.2%
Domest ic parcels1 52.5 9.7 62.2 18.5% I nt ernat ional parcels 51.8 6.0 57.8 11.5% Logist ic solut ions2 38.7 188.8 227.5
- I nt ernat ional mail3
35.3 22.5 57.7 63.7% Value added services 25.2 1.9 27.1 7.5% Banking and financial 44.8
- 3.6
41.2
- 8.0%
Dist ribut ion 21.9 1.8 23.7 8.3% Ret ail & Ot her 69.9 1.0 70.9 1.4% Corporat e4 6.7
- 2.1
4.6
- 31.2%
647.6 226.2 873.7 34.9% Domestic mail Parcels Additional sources
- f revenues
TOTAL
55
Dom estic m ail underlying volum e trend at -6 .4 % in line w ith full year guidance of up to -7 .0 %
3Q18
Total operating incom e, € m illion
1 2 .5 Volume Elections² 3 Q1 7
- 1 2 .9
- 1 .4
Working day impact 2 .1 Price/ mix 3 Q1 8 3 0 0 .7 3 0 1 .0 + 0 .3
FY17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 YTD18 FY17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 YTD18 Transact ional mail
- 8.3%
- 7.0%
- 3.5%
- 5.3%
- 5.2%
- 8.1%
- 6.7%
- 3.2%
- 6.1%
- 5.3%
Advert ising mail 1.5%
- 7.6%
- 7.8%
- 3.4%
- 6.5%
1.5%
- 7.6%
- 7.8%
- 6.9%
- 7.5%
Press
- 3.7%
- 3.3%
- 2.5%
- 7.1%
- 4.1%
- 3.7%
- 3.3%
- 2.5%
- 7.1%
- 4.1%
Domestic Mail
- 5.9% - 6.8%
- 4.3%
- 5.1%
- 5.4%
- 5.8%
- 6.6%
- 4.1%
- 6.4%
- 5.7%
Report ed Underlying (excl. elect ions)1
1
3Q18 had 1 working day more on franking machines and 2 more on stamps vs. 3Q17.
2
Advertising addressed and unaddressed volumes related to elections are neutralized in the calculation of the underlying volume trend.
3 5 .0 YTD1 7
- 2 .6
2 .1
- 4 6 .6
YTD1 8 9 9 3 .6 9 8 1 .4
- 1 2 .2
- Elections: local elections took place on October 14th, 2018
impacting advertising mail for € 2.1m (+ 3.5% volume impact). 4Q18 will also be positively impacted by election mail.
- Transactional Mail: continued e-substitution and
rationalization.
- Advertising Mail: excluding elections, unfavorable media mix
evolution in Direct Mail and higher competition in Unaddressed.
- Press: newspapers trend in line vs. LY excluding impact of 1
distribution day less; periodicals hit by increased digitization and further rationalization.
56
Continued strong organic parcels grow th
3Q18
Total operating incom e, € m illion
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
Radial 3 2 7 .3 Logistic Solutions 3 Q1 7 rebased 4 .6 3 Q1 7 1 8 4 .2 9 .7 Domestic Parcels1 International Parcels 3 Q1 8 1 4 3 .1 6 .0 3 4 7 .5 + 2 0 .2
- Driven by consolidation of Leen Menken and Active Ants.
- Consolidation of Radial as of 16 November 2017 (revenues
are reported under Logistic Solutions), revenues impacted by webstore phase-out and customer churn.
5 7 4 .0 1 ,0 6 0 .2 4 2 8 .2 1 1 .8 YTD1 7 3 0 .2 1 H1 8 1 ,0 0 2 .2 1 6 .0 + 5 8 .0
- Reported organic volum e grow th of + 2 5 .5 % driven
by strong e-commerce growth.
- Price/ m ix of -5 .5 % : price increase more than offset by
product & client mix effect.
- Growth driven by US and Europe.
57
Additional sources of revenues driven by acquisitions
3Q18 2 2 .5 Banking & Financial 3 Q1 7 International Mail 1 .9 VAS
- 3 .6
1 .8 Distribution 1 .0 Retail & Other 3 Q1 8 2 2 0 .6 1 9 7 .1 + 2 3 .5
- Driven by consolidation of Imex & M.A.I.L., Inc. as of
January 2018 and higher volumes from Asia (mainly registered).
- Excluding accounting restatement in 3Q17, decline of
Alvadis due to legislative change on pre-paid mobile phone cards.
- Lower revenues from bpost bank savings accounts due to
low interest rate environment.
- Driven by higher sales Ubiway Retail.
- Mainly Speos (document management services) and e-ID
services. Total operating incom e, € m illion
5 7 .8 YTD1 8 YTD1 7 5 .9
- 2 .8
- 1 3 .3
- 1 .5
6 1 6 .9 6 6 2 .9 + 4 6 .0
58
Organic costs im pacted by grow th and cost inflation in core business
3Q18
Operating expenses excl. depreciation and am ortization, € m illion
SG&A 2 .9 Domestic parcels cost increase Other costs 3 Q1 8 5 3 7 .3 1 1 .2 7 6 6 .8 One-offs 3 Q1 7 7 9 4 .8 1 7 .2 2 1 2 .2 3 Q1 7 rebased Consolidation effect (opex acquisitions) 1 3 .6 8 .5 Transport 1 .8 Payroll & Interim + 2 8 .0
1
Opex of Radial, Bubble Post, Leen Menken, I mex, M.A.I .L., I nc., Active Ants (see appendix for more detail)
- Mainly 3Q17 provision reversals related to an old
litigation and to payroll
- Increase driven by evolution of the international
activities (mail & parcels).
- Negative price effect (mainly indexation of provisions,
CLA and merit) and absenteeism partly compensated by better productivity, favourable FTE mix and tax shift
- Mainly increase in rent & rental (new mail centre, sales
& lease back), energy delivery costs resulting from higher fuel price and insurance costs.
- Mainly driven by increase in other operating expenses
(ATM attacks, taxes NBX, provision fleet end of contract)
- Additional FTEs, transport (subs), fleet, fuel and
insurance costs for parcels volumes.
4 .5 2 4 .5 2 3 .7
- 9 .8
YTD1 8 2 1 .7 2 ,2 8 5 .1 2 ,3 5 3 .9 2 5 .8 YTD1 7 6 4 1 .3 1 ,6 2 2 .1 + 6 8 .8 8 .3
59
€ million 3Q17 3Q18 Delta Cash flow from operat ing act ivit ies
- 38.9
- 30.2
+8.8 Cash flow from invest ing act ivit ies
- 37.3
- 23.1
+14.2 Operating free cash flow 1
- 76.3
- 53.3
+ 23.0 Financing act ivit ies
- 0.1
+106.4 +106.4 Net cash m ovem ent
- 76.3
+ 53.1 + 129.4 Capex
- 35.1
- 26.9
+ 8.2
Cash inflow in line w ith refinancing activities
3Q18
1
Reported operating free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
- Tax prepayments: € + 1 0 .0 m
- Proceeds from sale of buildings: € + 3 .3 m
- Lower capex: € + 8 .2 m
- Apple Express Earn-out paid in 3Q17: € + 2 .7 m
- Bond issuance (€ + 6 5 0 .0 m ) and commercial papers (€ + 2 0 .0 m ) offset the
reimbursement of the bridge loan for Radial acquisition and related costs
Additional info
61
EBI TDA im pacted by grow th activities and core business cost inflation
YTD18
€ m illion
4 4 6 .5 4 0 9 .0 3 5 3 .8 5 8 .0 4 6 .0 + 7 .9 + 1 0 .8
Costs Reported EBI TDA YTD1 7 One-offs YTD18 (opex)
- 7 5 .3
Corporate EBITDA Radial
- 1 0 .9
EBI TDA YTD1 8 excl.
- ne-offs
- 6 8 .8
Parcels Additional sources of revenues
3 6 4 .7
Reported EBI TDA YTD1 8 Domestic Mail One-offs YTD17 (operating income)
- 1 2 .1
EBI TDA YTD1 7 excl.
- ne-offs
- 3 2 .5
- 5 .0
One-offs YTD17 (opex)
Total operating income
€ -5 5 .2 m / -1 3 .5 %
Opex from acquisitions (excl. Radial)
- Reversal of provision (€ + 14.9)
- Support on specific projects and
ATM attacks for a combined amount of € -4.1m Of which € -24.5m related to growth of domestic parcels Mainly provision reversals (of which € 15.3m I AS19 non-cash gain related to termination of transport benefit)
62
YTD17 YTD18 YTD17 YTD18 % Δ Tot al operat ing income 2,068.7 2,718.6 2,068.7 2,718.6 31.4% Operat ing expenses 1,622.1 2,353.9 1,622.1 2,353.9 45.1% EBI TDA 446.5 364.7 446.5 364.7
- 18.3%
Margin (% ) 21.6% 13.4% 21.6% 13.4% EBI T 377.4 249.6 377.4 267.3
- 29.2%
Margin (% ) 18.2% 9.2% 18.2% 9.8% Profit before tax 381.8 240.5 381.8 258.3
- 32.4%
I ncome t ax expense 126.0 81.5 126.0 83.2 Net profit 255.8 159.1 255.8 175.1
- 31.6%
FCF 90.8 19.4 90.8 45.6 bpost S.A./ N.V. net profit ( BGAAP) 222.8 184.2 222.8 184.2
- 17.3%
Net Debt/ ( Net cash) , at 30 September ( 518.6) 354.1 ( 518.6) 354.1 Report ed Normalized
Sum m ary of key financials YTD1 8 1
YTD18
€ m illion
1
Normalized figures are not audited
€ 17.7m linked to amortization on intangible assets (purchase price allocation “PPA” Radial, Ubiway, Dynagroup & de Buren) Tax impact of PPA
- n amortization of
€ 1.7m Normalized FCF excludes the cash Radial receives on behalf of its customers for performing billing
- services. Radial
routinely remits this cash back to its customers with some delay
63
Total operating incom e
YTD18
€ m illion
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2
I ncluding scope changes: Radial, Leen Menken, BubblePost, Active Ants
3
I ncluding scope changes: I mex, M.A.I .L. I nc.
4
I ncluding one-off 3Q17 operating income
YTD17 ∆ YTD18 % ∆ Transact ional mail 593.1
- 1.4
591.8
- 0.2%
Advert ising mail 185.5
- 6.9
178.6
- 3.7%
Press 214.9
- 3.9
211.1
- 1.8%
Domest ic parcels1 159.5 30.2 189.7 18.9% I nt ernat ional parcels 159.7 11.8 171.5 7.4% Logist ic solut ions2 109.0 590.0 699.0
- I nt ernat ional mail3
117.4 57.8 175.2 49.2% Value added services 76.1 5.9 82.0 7.7% Banking and financial 139.1
- 13.3
125.8
- 9.6%
Dist ribut ion 72.2
- 1.5
70.7
- 2.1%
Ret ail & Ot her 212.0
- 2.8
209.1
- 1.3%
Corporat e4 30.0
- 15.9
14.1
- 52.9%
2,068.7 649.9 2,718.6 31.4% Domestic mail Parcels Additional sources
- f revenues
TOTAL
64
€ million YTD17 YTD18 Delta Cash flow from operat ing act ivit ies +219.5 +138.1
- 81.4
Cash flow from invest ing act ivit ies
- 128.7
- 118.7
+10.0 Operating free cash flow 1 + 90.8 + 19.4
- 71.4
Financing act ivit ies
- 49.8
+49.6 +99.4 Net cash m ovem ent + 41.0 + 69.0 + 28.0 Capex
- 66.9
- 66.4
+ 0.5
YTD18
Low er operating FCF1 supported by optim ized financing activities
- Phasing in tax prepayments (positive impact in 4Q18): € -5 0 .0 m
- bpost bank dividend in 2017: € -5 .8 m
- Excluding these elements:
- Decreased operating results: € -3 6 .6 m
- Proceeds from sale of buildings: € -2 .1 m
- Investment securities in 2Q17: € -1 2 .0 m
- Cash outflows related to acquisitions: € + 2 3 .6 m
- Bond issuance (€ + 6 5 0 .0 m ) and commercial papers (€ + 2 0 .0 m ) offset the
reimbursement of the bridge loan for Radial acquisition and costs relating to borrowings and leasing liabilities
1
Reported operating free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
65
Managem ent contracts and press concessions w ill be ( re) negotiated in the tim ing of the plan
USO & SGEI
Scope
€270m 1 state compensation in 2017 Universal Service Obligation ( USO) State compensation possible in case
- f USO being financial burden
- Collect, sort, transport, &
distribute letter mail up to 2kg, parcels up to 10kg, and parcels up to 20kg from other EU member states
- 1 access point per
m unicipality
- Collect and deliver 5 x/ w eek
- Full territory of Belgium
- USO pricing constraints
- Provide adequate
inform ation on USO products and services
- Quality control obligation
(95% of prior mail/ parcels D+ 1, 97% D+ 2)
6 th Managem ent Contract
Services not typically associated w ith m ail
- perators (SGEI), e.g.,
- Retail netw ork
- Cash at Counter
- Election m ail (distribution)
- Cash paym ent of pensions
at home
- Also part of SGEI s
- New spaper early delivery
6 x/ w eek
- Periodical delivery
5 x/ w eek
- Quality control obligation
- f max 7 complaints per 10k
deliveries
- ~ 3 ,0 0 0 FTEs
Tim ing
- End of 2 0 2 3 , renew able by
consecutive term s of 5 years
- Complementary management
contract granted by the State
- End of 2 0 2 0
- Notified and validated by
European Commission under State Aid rules
- End of 2 0 2 0
- Notified and validated by
European Commission under State Aid rules
Press concessions
1
Amount including inflation, volume variance and sharing of efficiency gains
66
Pro form a 2 0 1 7 for bpost group including full year im pact of new acquisitions
Pro forma 2017 financials
1
Of which:
- ~ € 1 ,1 0 0 m for bpost SA/ NV consisting of:
̶ Operational FTEs ~ 18,600 FTEs3 ̶ Other FTEs2 ~ 5,200 FTEs3
- ~ € 5 0 0 m (pro-forma for acquisitions) for
subsidiaries consisting of ~ 10,800 FTEs3
1 1
I ncludes acquisitions (Radial, Leen Menken, I MEX and Mail I nc.)
2
I ncludes retail network and headquarter-related FTEs
3
Year average FTEs
67
European mail market
A relatively resilient m ail m arket vs. other European operators
2 0 0 8 -1 8 CAGR for addressed m ail volum es
as reported by major incumbent European postal operators, percent
53 54 119 133 154 164 171 193 197 207 248 DE DK EU SW IT NL BE FR CH AU UK
Addressed m ail volum e per capita 2 0 1 8
- perator level*
1 11 3 8 6 7 10 5 2 4
Source: company information, annual reports, investor presentations, I PC, Eurostat
Note: definition of addressed mail may differ by operator 1 Includes addressed mail 2 Includes addressed mail 3 Includes addressed mail 4 Includes addressed mail 5 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 6 Includes addressed mail 7 Includes addressed mail (publishers services excl.) 8 Includes addressed mail excluding press 9 Includes all domestic mail
- 3.2
- 3.5
- 4.7
- 9.4
- 4.5
- 5.1
- 9.1
- 2.0
- 5.8
- 3.8
UK BE DE AU CH EU
- 13.1
DK NL IT FR SW
3 8 4 5 6 7 11 10 1 2
10 Includes inland addressed mail 11 Includes letter mail and addressed direct mail / media post * Excludes domestic competitors
68
Key contacts
Baudouin de Hepcée
Director Corporate Finance
- Em ail: baudouin.dehepcee@bpost.be
- Direct: + 32 (0) 2 276 22 28
- Mobile: + 32 (0) 476 49 69 58
- Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Saskia Dheedene
Manager I nvestor Relations
- Em ail: saskia.dheedene@bpost.be
- Direct: + 32 (0) 2 276 76 43
- Mobile: + 32 (0) 477 92 23 43
- Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Stéphanie Voisin
Manager I nvestor Relations
- Em ail: stephanie.voisin@bpost.be
- Direct: + 32 (0) 2 276 21 97
- Mobile: + 32 (0) 478 48 58 71
- Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium