GSA 2020 What We Did During The Last Seven Downturns in The Oil - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GSA 2020 What We Did During The Last Seven Downturns in The Oil - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 19, 2024 154 likes •1.02k views

Weathering the Storm GSA 2020 What We Did During The Last Seven Downturns in The Oil Markets Mike Carroll Dr. John Leftwich Reggie Spiller The History of Our Collective Careers Oil Prices 1970- 2020 Price In $ 2015

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Weathering the Storm

GSA 2020

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SLIDE 2
  • Dr. John Leftwich

Reggie Spiller

What We Did During The Last Seven Downturns in The Oil Markets

Mike Carroll

The History of Our Collective Careers

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SLIDE 3

Oil Prices 1970- 2020

2015 2020 2025

  • 20
  • 40

Year Price In $

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SLIDE 4

2015 2020 2025

  • 20
  • 40

Inflation Adjusted Crude Oil Prices 1970- 2020

73 84 93 98 01 08 20 Price Recovery Price Drop 16

Price in $ Year

86

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SLIDE 5

1973-1978

New Careers Launched

Columbia is Launched

Reg Spiller Exxon Geologist Mike Carroll Conoco Geologist John Leftwich Exxon Geologist

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SLIDE 6

Declared Geology Major 73

Reggie Spiller

86

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SLIDE 7

Reg Starts With Exxon 78

Reggie Spiller

86

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SLIDE 8

Reggie Spiller 1978 Age 26

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I’m going to work in The Energy Field and have a good Job!

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Well Site Work Offshore Gulf of Mexico

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Mike Starts With Conoco 78

Mike Caroll

86

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Mike Caroll Preparing for Grad School

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SLIDE 13

1978

Conoco Geologist Mike Carroll

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SLIDE 14

John Starts With Exxon 73

John Leftwich

86

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  • Dr. John Leftwich Geologist
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1977- 1984

1st artificial heart in

  • Dr. Barney Clark
  • E. T. Hits the Box Office

Oil Prices Peak at $53 per bbl

Good times in Houston

$125 todays Prices

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NABGG Founded In 1981 by a small Group of African American Geologists The “Early Years” Taken in 1982 GSA Member Society

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1983

Korean airline shot down Terrorist kill 237 marines In Beirut

“ Beat it”

Vanessa William is Miss America

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Challenger Disaster Chernobyl Meltdown

1986

Oil Prices fall $27-12 /bb

Big Concerns

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The Oil Crisis of 1986

The Saudis abandoned price support and increased production to capture Market Share

The Great Industry Crisis

86

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$ Crisis – Over leveraged companies had too much debt. Oil Prices Fall Many Banks had 40% of Portfolio in Oil

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Oil Company Consolidation Through 1986

  • Mesa Takes on Everyone “T Boone”
  • Philips Takes Aminoil
  • Chevron Takes Gulf
  • Mobil Takes Superior
  • Elf Takes Texas Gulf
  • Maxus Takes Diamond Shamrock
  • Pennzoil Takes Getty
  • BP Takes Sohio
  • Many other takeovers occur
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SLIDE 23

Bad Times 1986- 1989

Severance Package

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Many individuals pack it up and……Leave Thousand of Jobs Lost in the Oil Sector

Some return to school, become students, teachers, start new companies, and work overseas. Some….. never return

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SLIDE 25

15 Years of Depressed Prices

Sequence Boundary Reality

$40 86

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SLIDE 26

$40

Oil Prices Expressed as a Well Log

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2020

15 Years of low price (non reservoir) section

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Shale Base line

Price in $ Year

Unconformity

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SLIDE 27

What am I going to Do?

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John Leftwich Pursues a PHD

1989

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Mike Carroll Starts His Own Company

  • Had been Working in 1985 for Louisiana

Land and Exploration but the group was downsized and many talented people were let go.

  • 1992 Formed an New Company called Principle

Energy Development and provided technical services

to a variety of companies.

  • Did a number of Offshore and Onshore deals and

worked with another African American Owned company ( Osyka Energy)

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73 84 93 98 01 08 16 Reg Begins International work “88”

International

86

Reggie Goes

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Reggie Spiller Ethiopia 1989

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August 1st, 1990 Reggie and

Team Doing Field Work in the Ogaden Basin

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August 02, 1990 Iraq Invades Kuwait, Somalia Supports Iraq

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August 05, 1990 - The Team Gets Captured by Somali Militia

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1990

E and W Germany United Persian Gulf war Hubble is Launched Mandela is free after 27 years The www web debuts

A New Outlook

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73 84 93 98 01 08 16

The Oil Spike Of 1990 The Fear of a Middle East War

86

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John Begins Teaching at Old Dominion 1993 as a Geology Professor Old Dominion University

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$40 Reggie Joins The Federal Government “92” Oil @ $9.00/bbl 86

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1992

Bill Clinton elected Hazel O’Leary Named Secretary

  • f Energy- Focus on Natural Gas
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Dep Sectary Bill White Kyle Simpson John Northington Reg Spiller

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1992 Reg Spiller

Became the Deputy Assistant Secretary US Department of Energy

  • First Petroleum

Geologist to Hold the position

  • $400 m R and D budget
  • Industry and

Government Joint R and D conducted at National Labs

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Starts What is now the Oldest Minority Focused Summer Internship in the Federal Government

Legacy

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Mickey As a US Congressman 1987

Mickey Leland

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Hundred of STEMS Graduates in 25 years

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US Government DOE Delegation to Senegal 1995

Mike Carroll , Dr. Charles Brown , Kumar Bhattacharjee , Mike Harness Edith Allison Patricia Hall

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John Gets Captured by Shell Oil 1997

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Mars Team Deepwater Gulf of Mexico

Mike Gets Captured By British Petroleum 1988

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73 84 93 98 01 08 16 86 Mike Begins International work 99

Mike Goes International

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Mike Carroll Gets Captured by Hunt Oil 2003

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Mike Carroll Doing International Exploration for Hunt Oil in South America

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Bolivia Caspian

1996

Oil Prices were $15 per bbl Reggie Leaves the Government And Starts Frontera Resources

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73 84 93 98 01 08 16 Frontera Resources Raises 1st Capital In 1998+ 2001 and goes Public 2005 1 2 3

Collapse Of the Dollar

Over supply worries

86

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2001 The World Was Awash with Oil

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2001

Manhattan Sept 11, 2001

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  • Reg Spiller Azerbaijan
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Reg Spiller Syria 2001

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Reggie Spiller at the The Kila Kupra Oil Seeps Republic of Georgia 2003

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Reg Spiller at the Star Wars Oil Seep Kura Basin 2005

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NABG Member Mike Pilson 2010

Managing a Geophysical Survey in The Republic of Armenia

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Reggie and Mike Working in Armenia

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N=80+

Reg Spiller International Experience

Bayda Oil Seep

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2008 John Leftwich Moves to Halliburton

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2015 2020 2025

  • 20
  • 40

Reggie Forms Azimuth Energy 2010

73 84 93 98 01 08 20 Price Recovery Price Drop 16

Price in $ Year

2009

Started Azimuth Energy 2009

86 86

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CEO

Reg Spiller

International E and P Project Management

CFO Gary Hirstein BDM Tyrone Byrd

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2015 2020 2025

  • 20
  • 40

73 84 93 98 01 08 20 Price Recovery Price Drop 16

Price in $ Year

2019-2020 Acquisition Strategy: Buy Assets in the Down Market

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What you might think about

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The Digital Oil Field

What’s Here Now And Why?

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5

How to Better Manage 1000’s of Wells

Pool Name Size Depth Active Wells - AERA only

(per DOGGR, Dec/05)

Cum. Prod. AERA

  • nly

Production Production method Tulare 7000 acres 400-1000 ft 1660 prod., 420 inj. 990 MMBO Heavy Oil

(11-15º API)

Slotted liner & steamflood DIATOMITE 4800 acres (4100 Aera) 800-2000 ft 3530 prod., 1140 inj. 370 MMBO, 485 BCFG Light Oil

(22-39º API)

Hydraulic fractures Temblor & 64 Zone 2100 acres 6000-7000 ft 40 prod., 0 inj. 890 BCFG 70 MMBO Gas & light oil Slotted liner and perfs

3 active pools + 8 drilling rigs + 20 workover rigs = very crowded infrastructure

5

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Ultimate Goals: Increase Production Reduce Operating Cost Safer Work Environment

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Looking for Efficiency and New Relationships Through AI, ML, Iot

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The Big Drivers

  • Efficient management of 1000’s
  • f wells instead of the usual 50-

100 brought about by the Shale Revolution

  • Safety and HSE Concerns driven

by increased activity and the advent of the Crew Change

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Capital Markets are Demanding a Return on Investment

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Even Government is Involved!! $40 Million Dollar 4 year Research JV with Industry

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The Biggest Challenge ???

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The Biggest Challenge to Change

The Old School Way of Doing Things

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“Get ready for the Big Crew Change”

Drive the Message with HSE and Safety

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The Message and Top 10 Ideas to Weather The Storm

  • Be aggressive in the down markets- be open and flexible
  • Be inquisitive and keep connected to Professional

Societies- GSA, AAPG, NABG, SEG

  • Get a plan and a strategy but be ready to “morph”
  • Consider furthering your education
  • Get a Mentor ( and be one too!)
  • Partner with those who compliment your experience
  • Value your reputation more than your money
  • Schedule your time so you give back to others
  • Try something new ( International ) It may lead to

bigger things!

  • Jump on Board the Technology Train
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Bright Areas Now!

  • Natural Gas- We will see a shortage
  • Oil and Gas Storage- Where can I store over supply?
  • Reservoir engineering
  • Emerging Technologies that Reduce Opex
  • AI ML Iot
  • Health Safety and Environment
  • Water Resources
  • Rare Earth Element Identification and extraction
  • Hybrid Power systems that combine renewables with

Natural Gas

  • Geology + Engineering; MBA; GIS; Law; Regulatory Affairs
  • International - Jobs in your home countries
  • Government- National Labs-BLM-MMS-DOE
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SLIDE 80

?

Where are we Going?

$80 $60 $40 $20

So………

April 20th

  • $37 Dollars
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SLIDE 81

?

Where are we Going?

$80 $60 $40 $20

So………

2020/2021

2019 2020 2021 2022

The $40 dollar Shale Base Line?

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  • Do what ever it takes to stay in the field
  • Don’t give up
  • Things will definitely get better
  • Be there when recovery starts

For a protracted downturn

Be……..

Prepared

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The Future ?

  • Oil and gas prices will recover
  • Access to qualified people

gets tighter

  • Wind, solar, bio fuels will play

important but still a relatively small part of energy supply

  • Climate change will play an

important role in future energy development

  • Ai ML and IOT will bring
  • perational efficiency
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40 Years in 40 Minutes!

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Thank you for Listening

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Questions