Global PV market and Industry Status Ir Gatan Masson PV Markzttan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
global pv market and industry status
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Global PV market and Industry Status Ir Gatan Masson PV Markzttan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 22, 2023 850 likes •1.26k views

Global PV market and Industry Status Ir Gatan Masson PV Markzttan Masson, Director Director, Becquerel Institute Becquerel Institute Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform BECQUEREL IN INSTITUTE - BRUSSELS In-house

slide-1
SLIDE 1

PV Markzttan Masson, Director Becquerel Institute

Global PV market and Industry Status

Ir Gaëtan Masson Director, Becquerel Institute Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 2

BECQUEREL IN INSTITUTE - BRUSSELS

  • Research oriented

Institute and consulting company for Solar Technologies.

  • Global PV Market

Analysis including competitiveness and economics.

  • Industry analysis

together with quality & reliability.

  • Support for PV

development

  • Integration into

electricity systems (grids and markets).

  • In-house experts / Global network of

experts and stakeholders

  • PV Market Alliance partner
slide-3
SLIDE 3

3 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 3

IE IEA PVPS TRENDS REPORT

slide-4
SLIDE 4

4 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 4

CIV IVIL ILIZATIONS & & ENVIRONMENT

Rapa Nui (Easter Island) experienced a complete collapse of its society…

slide-5
SLIDE 5

5 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 5

FIN INEST ACHIEVEMENTS OF F CIV IVILIZATION

slide-6
SLIDE 6

6 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 6

THE CLIM IMATE CHANGE THREAT

"Well, I think the climate change is just a very, very expensive form

  • f tax.

PotUS - 2016

slide-7
SLIDE 7

7 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 7

ISN’T IT IT OBVIOUS ?

slide-8
SLIDE 8

8 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 8

(E (ENERGY) REVOLUTION

Dead Technologies Dead/Dying Utilities

slide-9
SLIDE 9

9 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 9

FRANCESCO STARACE (E (ENEL-EURELECTRIC)

“I think the industry has

lost some time in trying to resist what happened in technology, in denying what happened in the environment, so we had to catch up.”

EURACTIV 04 Oct 2017

slide-10
SLIDE 10

10 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 10

A A GROWING MARKET

+100 ~400

slide-11
SLIDE 11

11 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 11

GROWING YES BUT WHERE

slide-12
SLIDE 12

12 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 12

2017 PRELIMINARY

China 53 GW USA 10 GW (est.) India 9 GW (est.) Japan 7 GW EU 6 GW Turkey 2.5 GW RoW 12.5 GW

slide-13
SLIDE 13

13 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 13

AND EUROPE ?

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GWpDC

FIGURE 3: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS (GW - DC)

America AsiaPacific Europe MEA&A RoW

27… 5%

But slowly with PV…

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 14

A TALE OF 2 MARKETS

Distributed PV Centralized PV

Prosumers Producers

Grid injection, PPA, competition with utilities generation business Self-consumption, energy effiency, grid parity, competition with utilities distribution business

One technology

slide-15
SLIDE 15

15 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 15

UTIL ILIT ITY-SCALE DOMINATES

slide-16
SLIDE 16

16 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 16

SEGMENTATION

slide-17
SLIDE 17

17 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 17

SYSTEM PRIC ICES

Super competitive tenders Utility-scale under FiT Rooftop PV

slide-18
SLIDE 18

18 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 18

SUMMARY

  • Key market features
  • A large part of the global PV market is located in Asia, with China
  • dominating. The global PV market has doubled in two years.
  • The growth outside of China has a 15% CAGR.
  • Europe (EU) has difficulties to cope with the end of the FIT-era.
  • Distributed PV represented less than 20 GW from 2011 to 2016.

Then it jumpted to 34 GW in 2017. Thanks to 19 GW in China.

  • The distributed PV market remains dominated by FIT policies
  • utside of Europe, and net-metering evolving towards self-

consumption policies in Europe (and US, Japan…)

  • The bulk of the PV market is extremely competitive with half of the

market below the 1 USD/Wp mark in 2017.

  • Value of the PV market in 2017 could be estimated around 125

Billion USD (new installations).

slide-19
SLIDE 19

19 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 19

NOT EASY TO CONVINCE

slide-20
SLIDE 20

20 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 20

FORECASTS?

slide-21
SLIDE 21

21 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 21

BUT THIS IS COULD GO GO FASTER

  • 1. PV is becoming fast the cheapest source of

electricity.

  • 2. The past has seen faster developments:

1. From 2012 to 2017: market x 3 2. From 2007 to 2012: market x 15

  • 3. PV on cars could represent dozens of MV
  • 4. PV on buildings are developing as well.
  • 5. So… 200 GW a year in 2022 ? Or more ?
slide-22
SLIDE 22

22 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 22

TRIPLE (CONNECTED) ) I/E I/E-REVOLUTION

slide-23
SLIDE 23

23 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 23

ENERGY VS POWER

slide-24
SLIDE 24

24 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 24

UTIL ILIT ITY-SCALE PV FALLIN ING PRIC ICES

slide-25
SLIDE 25

25 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 25

GROWING PIN INEAPPLE IN IN ALASKA?

« Producing electricity from Solar in Germany is like growing pienapple in

  • Alaska. »

Jürgen Grossman, former CEO of RWE, 2011

slide-26
SLIDE 26

26 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 26

PV BELOW 0,0 ,02 USD/KWH ?

0,0168 $ per kWh

slide-27
SLIDE 27

27 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 27

THE PV IN INDUSTRY

Here and now (again)

slide-28
SLIDE 28

28 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 28

OVERCAPACIT ITIES IN IN THE IN INDUSTRY?

slide-29
SLIDE 29

29 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 29

CHIN INA AND ASIA IA RULE THE WORLD

slide-30
SLIDE 30

30 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 30

ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE

Source: Becquerel Institute 2016

Prices Learning Curve

slide-31
SLIDE 31

31 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 31

PV PRIC ICE LEARNING CURVE

0,4 USD/Wp

97% production 37% LC 20% LC

0,45 USD/WP – 275 GW

Source: Becquerel Institute 2016-2017

0,38 USD/WP – 300 GW 0,34 USD/WP – 400 GW

slide-32
SLIDE 32

32 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 32

4.2 .2. . THIN IN FIL ILM LEARNING CURVES

Source: Becquerel Institute 2016

slide-33
SLIDE 33

33 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 33

TECHNOLOGY VIE IEW

Evolution of efficiencies change the market conditions: from nov 2015

slide-34
SLIDE 34

34 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 34

GAME CHANGER?

Evolution of efficiencies change the market conditions: thin film CdTe become more competitive while all efficiencies are improving.

Source: Becquerel Institute 2017

slide-35
SLIDE 35

35 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 35

ROLE OF MATERIALS

0,0000 0,0500 0,1000 0,1500 0,2000 0,2500 0,3000 0,3500 0,4000 0,4500

Axeltitel

Shipping Module costs with GPM Total others Total Margins Total Labor Total Energy/utilities Total Maintenance Total Depreciation of Equipment Total Other Materials Silicon

slide-36
SLIDE 36

36 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 36

EUROPE IS IS NOT DEAD

  • Heterojunction
  • Enel Green Power with 250 MW
  • + … at least two other manufacturers
  • Epitaxial wafers
  • Pilot line for Nexwafe without competition
  • Wafers
  • Photowatt announced at least 500 MW to start
  • + BIPV + …
slide-37
SLIDE 37

37 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 37

CONCLUSIONS

The revolution has just started… From simple modules to BIPV, roads, floatting PV, urban furniture, cars, trains, planes… PV will be the CHEAPEST source of energy in this century. The fate of the industry and the market is not written, it depends on policy choices.

slide-38
SLIDE 38

38 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 38

QUOTE

« PV is not the source of electricity of the future… … it is already a reality today »

slide-39
SLIDE 39

39 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute 39

NEXT STEP IN IN EVOLUTION

slide-40
SLIDE 40

g.masson@becquerelinstitute.org Becquerelinstitute.org www.pvmarketalliance.com Solar-united.org www.iea-pvps.org

Thanks for your attention