Global PV market and Industry Status Ir Gaëtan Masson PV Markzttan Masson, Director Director, Becquerel Institute Becquerel Institute Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform
BECQUEREL IN INSTITUTE - BRUSSELS • In-house experts / Global network of experts and stakeholders • Research oriented Institute and • PV Market Alliance partner consulting company for Solar Technologies. • Global PV Market Analysis including competitiveness and economics. • Industry analysis together with quality & reliability. • Support for PV development • Integration into electricity systems (grids and markets). 2 2 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
IE IEA PVPS TRENDS REPORT 3 3 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
CIV IVIL ILIZATIONS & & ENVIRONMENT Rapa Nui (Easter Island) experienced a complete collapse of its society… 4 4 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
FIN INEST ACHIEVEMENTS OF F CIV IVILIZATION 5 5 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
THE CLIM IMATE CHANGE THREAT "Well, I think the climate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax. PotUS - 2016 6 6 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
ISN’T IT IT OBVIOUS ? 7 7 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
(E (ENERGY) REVOLUTION Dead/Dying Utilities Dead Technologies 8 8 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
FRANCESCO STARACE (E (ENEL-EURELECTRIC) “ I think the industry has lost some time in trying to resist what happened in technology, in denying what happened in the environment, so we had to catch up. ” EURACTIV 04 Oct 2017 9 9 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
A A GROWING MARKET +100 ~400 10 10 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
GROWING YES BUT WHERE 11 11 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
2017 PRELIMINARY China 53 GW USA 10 GW (est.) India 9 GW (est.) Japan 7 GW EU 6 GW Turkey 2.5 GW RoW 12.5 GW 12 12 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
AND EUROPE ? 27… 5% 350 FIGURE 3: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS (GW - DC) 300 250 200 GWp DC But slowly 150 with PV… 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 America AsiaPacific Europe MEA&A RoW 13 13 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
A TALE OF 2 MARKETS Distributed PV Producers Grid injection, PPA, competition with One Self-consumption, utilities generation energy effiency, grid technology business parity, competition with utilities distribution business Prosumers Centralized PV 14 14 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
UTIL ILIT ITY-SCALE DOMINATES 15 15 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
SEGMENTATION 16 16 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
SYSTEM PRIC ICES Super Utility-scale competitive Rooftop PV under FiT tenders 17 17 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
SUMMARY - Key market features - A large part of the global PV market is located in Asia, with China dominating. The global PV market has doubled in two years. - The growth outside of China has a 15% CAGR. - Europe (EU) has difficulties to cope with the end of the FIT-era. - Distributed PV represented less than 20 GW from 2011 to 2016. Then it jumpted to 34 GW in 2017. Thanks to 19 GW in China. - The distributed PV market remains dominated by FIT policies outside of Europe, and net-metering evolving towards self- consumption policies in Europe (and US, Japan…) - The bulk of the PV market is extremely competitive with half of the market below the 1 USD/Wp mark in 2017. - Value of the PV market in 2017 could be estimated around 125 Billion USD (new installations). 18 18 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
NOT EASY TO CONVINCE 19 19 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
FORECASTS? 20 20 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
BUT THIS IS COULD GO GO FASTER 1. PV is becoming fast the cheapest source of electricity. 2. The past has seen faster developments: 1. From 2012 to 2017: market x 3 2. From 2007 to 2012: market x 15 3. PV on cars could represent dozens of MV 4. PV on buildings are developing as well. 5. So… 200 GW a year in 2022 ? Or more ? 21 21 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
TRIPLE (CONNECTED) ) I/E I/E-REVOLUTION 22 22 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
ENERGY VS POWER 23 23 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
UTIL ILIT ITY-SCALE PV FALLIN ING PRIC ICES 24 24 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
GROWING PIN INEAPPLE IN IN ALASKA? « Producing electricity from Solar in Germany is like growing pienapple in Alaska. » Jürgen Grossman, former CEO of RWE, 2011 25 25 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
PV BELOW 0,0 ,02 USD/KWH ? 0,0168 $ per kWh 26 26 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
THE PV IN INDUSTRY Here and now (again) 27 27 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
OVERCAPACIT ITIES IN IN THE IN INDUSTRY? 28 28 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
CHIN INA AND ASIA IA RULE THE WORLD 29 29 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE Prices Learning Curve Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 30 30 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
PV PRIC ICE LEARNING CURVE 97% production 20% LC 0,4 USD/Wp 0,45 USD/WP – 275 GW 37% LC 0,38 USD/WP – 300 GW 0,34 USD/WP – 400 GW Source: Becquerel Institute 2016-2017 31 31 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
4.2 .2. . THIN IN FIL ILM LEARNING CURVES Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 32 32 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
TECHNOLOGY VIE IEW Evolution of efficiencies change the market conditions: from nov 2015 33 33 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
GAME CHANGER? Evolution of efficiencies change the market conditions: thin film CdTe become more competitive while all efficiencies are improving. Source: Becquerel Institute 2017 34 34 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
ROLE OF MATERIALS 0,4500 0,4000 Shipping 0,3500 Module costs with GPM Total others 0,3000 Total Margins 0,2500 Axeltitel Total Labor Total Energy/utilities 0,2000 Total Maintenance Total Depreciation of Equipment 0,1500 Total Other Materials 0,1000 Silicon 0,0500 0,0000 35 35 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
EUROPE IS IS NOT DEAD - Heterojunction - Enel Green Power with 250 MW - + … at least two other manufacturers - Epitaxial wafers - Pilot line for Nexwafe without competition - Wafers - Photowatt announced at least 500 MW to start - + BIPV + … 36 36 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
CONCLUSIONS The revolution has just started … From simple modules to BIPV, roads, floatting PV, urban furniture , cars, trains, planes… PV will be the CHEAPEST source of energy in this century. The fate of the industry and the market is not written, it depends on policy choices. 37 37 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
QUOTE « PV is not the source of electricity of the future… … it is already a reality today » 38 38 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
NEXT STEP IN IN EVOLUTION 39 39 EMIRI Tech – 24 Oct 2017 - Brussels Becquerel Institute
Thanks for g.masson@becquerelinstitute.org Becquerelinstitute.org your attention www.pvmarketalliance.com Solar-united.org www.iea-pvps.org
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