The global air transport industry: Source: IATA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the global air transport industry
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The global air transport industry: Source: IATA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 18, 2023 37 likes •263 views

The global air transport industry: Source: IATA www.iata.org/economics 1 The global industry outlook remains bright 3.5% Average annual growth in global air passenger journeys over the next 20 years 2.0x The number of air passenger

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The global air transport industry:

1

Source: IATA

www.iata.org/economics

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The global industry outlook remains bright…

2 www.iata.org/economics

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics

3.5%

Average annual growth in global air passenger journeys

  • ver the next 20 years

2.0x

The number of air passenger journeys in 2037 compared with today

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20-year air passenger growth is shifting East & South

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics

3

www.iata.org/economics

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In Africa, air transport supports…

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…6.2 million jobs & $55.8 billion of GDP

Source: ATAG

www.iata.org/economics

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Demand for air travel in Africa to soar in the middle run

Source: IATA/Oxford Economics

www.iata.org/economics

5

334 135

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037

No Policy Change Policy Stimulus & Market Liberalisation Pick-up in Protectionism

million passengers per year (O-D basis)

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SLIDE 6

6

Source: ATAG

www.iata.org/economics

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20-year passenger growth outlook (2017-37)

7

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics

www.iata.org/economics

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The markets of tomorrow

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics

www.iata.org/economics

8

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Top 10 air markets in Africa shows few changes

9 www.iata.org/economics

Source: IATA/Oxford Economics 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 Egypt

  • S. Africa

Tanzania Mauritius Ethiopia Kenya Tunisia Nigeria Algeria Morocco Egypt Nigeria Algeria Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Tunisia Morocco Sudan

  • S. Africa
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Drivers of demand for air travel in Africa: Population

10 www.iata.org/economics

Source: IATA/Oxford Economics 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

African Population in Million

Total population evolution: Africa

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Drivers of demand for air travel in Africa: Income

11 www.iata.org/economics

Source: IATA/Oxford Economics 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

African per Capita GDP in Real USD

Per capita GDP evolution: Africa

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Strong increase in # of passengers over next 20 years

12 www.iata.org/economics

Source: IATA/Oxford Economics 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria South… Tanzania

Number of passengers per year (‘000)

Number of passengers in African countries with strong airline industry 2017 2037

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… translating into high annual passenger growth rate

13 www.iata.org/economics

Source: IATA/Oxford Economics

3.7 2.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 3.8 6.3 4.6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for passengers

Passenger average yearly growth rate for period 2017-2037 Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Africa

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Visa openness index 2018

Source: UNWTO

www.iata.org/economics

14

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Air travel connectivity from Africa to the World: 2008

15 www.iata.org/economics

Source: SRS Analyser

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Air travel connectivity from Africa to the World: 2018

16 www.iata.org/economics

Source: SRS Analyser

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Air travel connectivity within Africa: 2008

17 www.iata.org/economics

Source: SRS Analyser

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Air travel connectivity within Africa: 2018

18 www.iata.org/economics

Source: SRS Analyser

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Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts

Regional profitability remains very uneven

  • 6%
  • 1%

4% 9% N America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East L America Africa Net post-tax profit margins 2015 2016 2017 2018

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Regional (net) profitability – Africa

www.iata.org/economics 20

Source: IATA

  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2%

  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f Net profit (Left axis) US$bn

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Airline Cost Drivers in Africa

  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% Station expenses Flight crew salaries and expenses Passenger services

Other expenses (flight operations) Depreciation and amortization Flight equipment insurance Other operating expenses Flight equipment rentals Ticketing, sales and promotion Aircraft fuel and oil Flight equipment maintenance and overhaul User charges

Percentage points difference in shares of total regional costs.

Differences in cost sources: Africa vs Industry

The 0% line indicates the industry average. Lower than industry average Higher than industry average

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How IATA initiatives impact cost-drivers in Africa

  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% Station expenses Flight crew salaries and expenses Passenger services Other expenses (flight operations) Depreciation and amortization Flight equipment insurance Other operating expenses Flight equipment rentals Ticketing, sales and promotion Aircraft fuel and oil Flight equipment maintenance and overhaul User charges Percentage points difference in shares of total regional costs.

Differences in cost sources: Africa vs Industry

The 0% line indicates the industry average. Lower than industry Higher than industry average

ASA best practice clauses Airport Privatization Efforts Standards & initiatives related to distribution issues Smarter Regulation Advocacy