SLIDE 1
Global Pulses Conclave — 2014
BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM
Price Influences
- Transportation
- Currency volatility
- Competition for acres
- Weather
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Global Pulses Conclave 2014 BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM Price - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Global Pulses Conclave 2014 BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM Price - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Global Pulses Conclave 2014 BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM Price Influences Transportation Currency volatility Competition for acres Weather www.statpub.com Bulk vs. Container Freight G raph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Bulk vs. Container Freight
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Graph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are based on data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, Inc. Container rates are based on data from Drewry Shipping Consulting
SLIDE 4
5 10 15 20 25 All Peas Wheat Canola
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Canada Bulk Exports to Feb 9
(million metric tons)
SLIDE 5
Price Influences
- Transportation
- Currency volatility
- Competition for acres
- Weather
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SLIDE 6
Major Pulse Currencies
(2004 = 100)
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Rupee weakens faster
SLIDE 7
Canadian Red Lentils
(per metric ton track Vancouver)
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Weak Rupee
SLIDE 8
Canada Yellow Peas
(per metric ton delivered Vancouver)
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Weak Rupee
SLIDE 9
Canadian Yellow Pea Price
(grower versus export price)
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Weak Dollar
SLIDE 10
Outside Influences
- Transportation
- Currency volatility
- Competition for acres
- Weather
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SLIDE 11
Competition For Acres
(2004 = 100)
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Pulses Less Competitive
SLIDE 12
Pulse Index as % of Grains
(2004 = 100)
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World pulse area jumped 15% in 2010
SLIDE 13
Pulse Index as % of Oilseeds
(2004 = 100)
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Pulse area fell 21% in export countries in 2011
SLIDE 14
2014 Outlook
- Shifting production
- Peas and Lentils
- Beans and Chickpeas
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SLIDE 15
World Pulse Production
(million metric tons)
Exporters India Other 2014-15 9.9 18.6 22.0 2009-13 9.9 17.3 22.4 2006-10 9.1 14.9 21.9 2001-05 8.5 12.9 20.7 1996-2000 8.7 13.8 18.0 1991-95 7.1 13.4 20.7
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SLIDE 16
World Pulse Production
(percent share of total)
Exporters India Other 2014-15 20% 40% 40% 2010-14 20% 37% 43% 2005-09 20% 32% 48% 2000-04 21% 31% 48% 1995-99 20% 35% 45% 1990-94 16% 31% 53%
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SLIDE 17
2014 Outlook
- Shifting production
- Peas and Lentils
- Beans and Chickpeas
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SLIDE 18
World Pea Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average 2013 2014
Canada 3,217,800 3,849,000 3,301,000 Russia 1,580,400 1,684,000 2,197,000 France 686,600 533,000 575,000 United States 578,000 709,000 729,000 Australia 356,400 342,000 334,000 World 10,268,000 11,162,000 11,164,000
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The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
SLIDE 19
World Pea Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares)
6,600,000 7,020,000 7,170,000
Production
10,490,000 11,162,000 11,164,000
Carry-in
680,000 370,000 820,000
Supply
11,180,000 11,532,000 11,984,000
Trade
4,030,000 4,420,000 4,580,000
Inferred Use
10,440,000 10,712,000 11,304,000
Ending Stock
730,000 820,000 680,000
Stock-Use Ratio
7% 8% 6%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
SLIDE 20
World Lentil Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average 2013 2014
Australia
256,600 253,000 264,000
Canada
1,705,600 1,881,000 1,766,000
United States
268,000 228,000 193,000
Turkey
378,400 300,000 463,000
Other
1,696,200 1,149,000 1,371,000
World
4,304,800 3,811,000 4,057,000
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The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
SLIDE 21
World Lentil Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares)
4,090,000 3,808,000 3,725,000
Production
4,300,000 3,811,000 4,057,000
Carry-in
580,000 373,000 245,000
Supply
4,880,000 4,184,000 4,302,000
Trade
2,170,000 2,438,000 2,246,000
Inferred Use
4,280,000 3,939,000 4,009,000
Ending Stock
600,000 245,000 293,000
Stock-Use Ratio
14% 6% 7%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
SLIDE 22
2014 Outlook
- Shifting production
- Peas and Lentils
- Beans and Chickpeas
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SLIDE 23
World Dry Bean Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average 2013 2014 China
1,437,000 1,312,000 1,736,000
Argentina
264,600 96,000 294,000
Brazil
3,263,400 3,311,000 3,180,000
Mexico
2,418,000 2,537,000 2,583,000
United States
4,550,200 4,800,000 4,627,000
World
23,247,800 23,107,000 23,773,000
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The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
SLIDE 24
World Bean Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares)
29,250,000 29,074,000 29,652,000
Production
23,250,000 23,107,000 23,773,000
Carry-in
820,000 505,000 612,000
Supply
24,070,000 23,612,000 24,385,000
Trade
4,260,000 3,913,000 4,386,000
Inferred Use
23,280,000 23,000,000 23,583,000
Ending Stock
790,000 612,000 802,000
Stock-Use Ratio
4% 2% 3%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
SLIDE 25
World Chickpea Production
(metric tons)
5-Year Average 2013-14 2014-15
Kabuli India 502,000 515,000 438,000 Turkey 563,000 325,000 390,000 Mexico 132,000 195,000 135,000 All Kabuli 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 Desi 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000
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The 5-year average covers 200-09 to 2012-13
SLIDE 26
World Kabuli Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares)
1,943,000 1,878,000 1,826,000
Production
1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000
Carry-in
193,000 361,000 369,000
Supply
2,165,000 2,248,000 2,227,000
Trade
420,000 504,000 465,000
Inferred Use
1,928,000 1,879,000 1,976,000
Ending Stock
238,000 369,000 251,000
Stock-Use Ratio
12% 20% 13%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
SLIDE 27
World Desi Supply-Demand
(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares)
10,666,000 11,410,000 12,218,000
Production
9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000
Carry-in
76,000 4,000 56,000
Supply
9,576,000 10,808,000 11,531,000
Trade
868,000 392,000 224,000
Inferred Use
9,514,000 10,752,000 11,472,000
Ending Stock
62,000 56,000 59,000
Stock-Use Ratio
1% 1% 1%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
SLIDE 28
Conclusions
- General increase in pulse area
- Stronger weather events
- India leading increase in output
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