Global Pulses Conclave — 2014 BRIAN CLANCEY WWW.STATPUB.COM
Price Influences • Transportation • Currency volatility • Competition for acres • Weather www.statpub.com
Bulk vs. Container Freight G raph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are based on data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, Inc. Container rates are based on data from Drewry Shipping Consulting www.statpub.com
Canada Bulk Exports to Feb 9 (million metric tons) 25 20 15 All Peas 10 Wheat Canola 5 0 www.statpub.com
Price Influences • Transportation • Currency volatility • Competition for acres • Weather www.statpub.com
Major Pulse Currencies (2004 = 100) Rupee weakens faster www.statpub.com
Canadian Red Lentils (per metric ton track Vancouver) Weak Rupee www.statpub.com
Canada Yellow Peas (per metric ton delivered Vancouver) Weak Rupee www.statpub.com
Canadian Yellow Pea Price (grower versus export price) Weak Dollar www.statpub.com
Outside Influences • Transportation • Currency volatility • Competition for acres • Weather www.statpub.com
Competition For Acres (2004 = 100) Pulses Less Competitive www.statpub.com
Pulse Index as % of Grains (2004 = 100) World pulse area jumped 15% in 2010 www.statpub.com
Pulse Index as % of Oilseeds (2004 = 100) Pulse area fell 21% in export countries in 2011 www.statpub.com
2014 Outlook • Shifting production • Peas and Lentils • Beans and Chickpeas www.statpub.com
World Pulse Production (million metric tons) Exporters India Other 2014-15 9.9 18.6 22.0 2009-13 9.9 17.3 22.4 2006-10 9.1 14.9 21.9 2001-05 8.5 12.9 20.7 1996-2000 8.7 13.8 18.0 1991-95 7.1 13.4 20.7 www.statpub.com
World Pulse Production (percent share of total) Exporters India Other 2014-15 20% 40% 40% 2010-14 20% 37% 43% 2005-09 20% 32% 48% 2000-04 21% 31% 48% 1995-99 20% 35% 45% 1990-94 16% 31% 53% www.statpub.com
2014 Outlook • Shifting production • Peas and Lentils • Beans and Chickpeas www.statpub.com
World Pea Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013 2014 Canada 3,217,800 3,849,000 3,301,000 Russia 1,580,400 1,684,000 2,197,000 France 686,600 533,000 575,000 United States 578,000 709,000 729,000 Australia 356,400 342,000 334,000 World 10,268,000 11,162,000 11,164,000 The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013 www.statpub.com
World Pea Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 6,600,000 7,020,000 7,170,000 Production 10,490,000 11,162,000 11,164,000 Carry-in 680,000 370,000 820,000 Supply 11,180,000 11,532,000 11,984,000 Trade 4,030,000 4,420,000 4,580,000 Inferred Use 10,440,000 10,712,000 11,304,000 Ending Stock 730,000 820,000 680,000 Stock-Use Ratio 7% 8% 6% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
World Lentil Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013 2014 Australia 256,600 253,000 264,000 Canada 1,705,600 1,881,000 1,766,000 United States 268,000 228,000 193,000 Turkey 378,400 300,000 463,000 Other 1,696,200 1,149,000 1,371,000 World 4,304,800 3,811,000 4,057,000 The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013 www.statpub.com
World Lentil Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 4,090,000 3,808,000 3,725,000 Production 4,300,000 3,811,000 4,057,000 Carry-in 580,000 373,000 245,000 Supply 4,880,000 4,184,000 4,302,000 Trade 2,170,000 2,438,000 2,246,000 Inferred Use 4,280,000 3,939,000 4,009,000 Ending Stock 600,000 245,000 293,000 Stock-Use Ratio 14% 6% 7% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
2014 Outlook • Shifting production • Peas and Lentils • Beans and Chickpeas www.statpub.com
World Dry Bean Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013 2014 China 1,437,000 1,312,000 1,736,000 Argentina 264,600 96,000 294,000 Brazil 3,263,400 3,311,000 3,180,000 Mexico 2,418,000 2,537,000 2,583,000 United States 4,550,200 4,800,000 4,627,000 World 23,247,800 23,107,000 23,773,000 The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013 www.statpub.com
World Bean Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 29,250,000 29,074,000 29,652,000 Production 23,250,000 23,107,000 23,773,000 Carry-in 820,000 505,000 612,000 Supply 24,070,000 23,612,000 24,385,000 Trade 4,260,000 3,913,000 4,386,000 Inferred Use 23,280,000 23,000,000 23,583,000 Ending Stock 790,000 612,000 802,000 Stock-Use Ratio 4% 2% 3% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
World Chickpea Production (metric tons) 5-Year Average 2013-14 2014-15 Kabuli India 502,000 515,000 438,000 Turkey 563,000 325,000 390,000 Mexico 132,000 195,000 135,000 All Kabuli 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 Desi 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000 The 5-year average covers 200-09 to 2012-13 www.statpub.com
World Kabuli Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 1,943,000 1,878,000 1,826,000 Production 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 Carry-in 193,000 361,000 369,000 Supply 2,165,000 2,248,000 2,227,000 Trade 420,000 504,000 465,000 Inferred Use 1,928,000 1,879,000 1,976,000 Ending Stock 238,000 369,000 251,000 Stock-Use Ratio 12% 20% 13% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
World Desi Supply-Demand (metric tons) 5-year average 2013-14 2014-15 Area (hectares) 10,666,000 11,410,000 12,218,000 Production 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000 Carry-in 76,000 4,000 56,000 Supply 9,576,000 10,808,000 11,531,000 Trade 868,000 392,000 224,000 Inferred Use 9,514,000 10,752,000 11,472,000 Ending Stock 62,000 56,000 59,000 Stock-Use Ratio 1% 1% 1% The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14 www.statpub.com
Conclusions • General increase in pulse area • Stronger weather events • India leading increase in output www.statpub.com
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