1/10/2019 1
1 2
1/10/2019 1 2 1 1/10/2019 Top 10 Economies 3 Interest Rates 4 - - PDF document
1/10/2019 1 2 1 1/10/2019 Top 10 Economies 3 Interest Rates 4 2 1/10/2019 10 Year Treasury 5 6 3 1/10/2019 MT Ag 27,100 farms Average 2,207 acres 67 Farmers Markets $ 4.58B Revenue National Leader-wheat, dry peas,
1/10/2019 1
1 2
1/10/2019 2
Top 10 Economies Interest Rates
3 4
1/10/2019 3
10 Year Treasury
5 6
1/10/2019 4
MT Ag
honey/pollination
MT Top 10 Ag Products
7 8
1/10/2019 5
Information Requirements
Property Information
9 10
1/10/2019 6
Real Estate Financing
variable
Country Home & Lot Loans
income producing properties
11 12
1/10/2019 7
Insurance
Ag Direct
13 14
1/10/2019 8
Appraisals
Cash Patronage Paid in $
15 16
1/10/2019 9
“ForLandsSake” 2018MontanaLandRoundup&Review Passing Notes YouGotLucky
17 18
1/10/2019 10
SpecialThanks SouthwestMontanaFarmandRanchBrokers NorthwestFarmCreditServices
PanelMembers– Brokers– MarketParticipants&ConfidentialSources
19 20
1/10/2019 11
Disclaimer– Novaluesortrendsexpressedheretodayshouldbeconsideredspecifictoanyoneproperty. ThedatapresentedisnotintendedtorepresentanAppraisal. Presentationisforbasicinformationalpurposes.
Secrets Hall&Hall FayRanches SwanRanches Livewater Properties Brokers&Others
MFMcDonnell Express
DifferentAppraisers– DifferentData– DifferentOpinions
DataOutput
NCW&Assoc SubjectProperty
21 22
1/10/2019 12
NormanCWheeler&Associates SpecialValuationProjects
650,000acreSageGrouseMitigationBank CostBenefitAnalysis&BenefitRatios ForCapitalRanchImprovement Projects StreamRestoration IrrigationRedevelopment WetlandsMitigationBank ValuationModels
ConservationEasement
WetlandsCredits StreamCredits RiverCredits
23 24
1/10/2019 13
SpecializedAgriculturalInfrastructure ObsolescenceStudies NonConformingHouses
25 26
1/10/2019 14
AverageLossBasedOn TypicalExpected Contributionis20%to 30% BasedonPhysical Replacement
ValueStudies2015 ForwardShow Averageat65%
2018Sales >80%
MontanaStateLandsMassValuation
StateLands– 5,500,000acreslocatedin12,922individualparcels DesignedaGISBasedInteractiveProgram ThatAllowsValueEstimatesWithin GeographicSubmarketsForVarying LandClassesToAccommodateStaffPlanning
27 28
1/10/2019 15
StateLease#7022 640DeededAcres 600AcresNativeRange 40acreswaste RecreationalRiparian/River $7,500peracre IrrigatedLand$4,200peracre DryCropland$1,200peracre SubPasture$1,000peracre NativeRange– Mountain $1,000peracre Open $800peracre
Subdivision– DevelopmentStudies
29 30
1/10/2019 16
ValueInterpolationStudies
31 32
1/10/2019 17
ConservationEasementTrends
ValueChangesAssociatedWithLarger RuralLandOwnerships
basedonNonIRSQualified Appraisals
HeavyRiparianInfluenceCanBe Problematic
ValueChangeAssociatedWith UrbanProjects
basedonNonIRSQualified Appraisals
Additional10to15%
MarketStudies– ParadiseValley AveragePerAcreLandValues
$3,511 $8,176 $4,207 $3,937 $ $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 1 2 3 4
AveragePerAcreLandvalue
2000to 2005 2005 to2008 2010 to2014
2015to Present ACRESSOLD 15,2943,600 8,64321,150
Basedata– NormanC.Wheeler&Associates AnnualLandSurveys
33 34
1/10/2019 18 Gallatin County Market Study
Period Total Sales Acres Average Size Deeded 2003to2005 27,137
$ 2006to2009 16,946
$ 2010to2015 36,592
$ 2016topresent 15,024
$ Development 2006 1,920
$ Development 2017to2018 3,007
$ AverageLandValue DevelopmentSales PerAcre Unimproved AverageLand ValuePerDeeded Acregeneral Market PrimaryGallatinCountyLandMarket
Statemap– eastwestplus
35 36
1/10/2019 19
Year Sales DeededAcres SaleValue Average Acres AverageLand Value
1990 10 22,300
$ 2,230
$ 1995 33 101,541
$ 3,077
$ 2001 61 320,861
$ 5,260
$ 2002 51 217,546
$ 4,266
$
738,786
52 200,379
$ 3,853
$
$887
2004 54 265,394
$ 4,915
$ 2005 83 323,895
$ 3,902
$
763,518
53 174,229
$ 3,287
$ 2007 46 159,061
$ 3,458
$ 2008 31 91,999
$ 2,968
$
$1,888
2009 17 66,822
$ 3,931
$
AvgPerAcre2009 thru2012
2010 41 464,074
$ 11,319
$ 2011 47 323,779
$ 6,889
$
$596
1,432,764
46 327,029
$ 7,109
$ 2013 34 114,804
$ 3,376
$ 2014 57 141,327
$ 2,479
$ 2015 49 171,389
$ 3,498
$
$1,338
517,178
44 89,658
$ 2,038
$ 2017 42 108,650
$ 2,587
$ 2018 82 193,079
$ 2,355
$
$1,970
301,729
thru2016
AvgPerAcre 2017thru2018
Total Volume Deeded Acres AvgPerAcre2001 thru2003$890
Average weightedLand ValuePerAcre
AvgPerAcre2004 thru2008$1,888
Rural Land Sales 640 acres or greater in deeded acres within primary recreational influenced markets - Volume
includes land, leases and buildings - The Average Per Acre Value Referenced Is Unimproved - Land Only
BaseData NormanC.Wheeler&Associates AnnualLandSurvey
TierOne TierOne TierTwo TierThree
>$1500PerAcre >$1250upto$2000 $700to$1200peracre Agricultural
37 38
1/10/2019 20
WesternLandsStudy– TierOneRanches Salesgreaterthen2,000deededacres Over$2,000peracre/Land
2017
AverageSalePricePerAcre– Land Only $2,950
2018
LandOnly $2,498
Note– 2016– 2sales $20,400,000
AverageDaysOnMarket >70Days
HoldTime Average 19.7Years
9TierOne Sales 2018
39 40
1/10/2019 21
Deeded Acres Sale Price Seller Hold Period Buyer Motivation Status 22,242 $ 45,000,000 30 New Non Resident Investor Expanding to more lands 8,101 $ 21,500,000 10 New Non Resident Investor Building and expanding 10,138 $ 21,100,000 5 New Non Resident Investor Expanding to more lands 93,280 $ 59,000,000 30 Foreign Investment Building and expanding 6,647 Over $25,000,000- Confidential 20 years plus Expanding non resident Investor Bringing into an expanding 26 year hold 50,333 $23,500,000 20 years plus Expanding Investor Bringing into an expanding 15 year hold 5,665 $33,000,000 30 years Plus Expanding non resident Investor Bringing into an expanding 25 year family portfolio - in Montana 24,848 $25,437,500 Investor hold was over 20 years New Non Resident Investor Building and expanding 45,045 $35,500,000
years New Non Resident Investor Expanding to more lands 108,571 $79,785,000 Built and expanded
years Expanding non resident Investor Expanding empire builder
ReviewofProbableBuyersAnalysisofHoldTimesSalesover $20,000,000
Salesover$20,000,000Since1998 AverageHoldWas19.3years
2018Reported RealEstateSales
Source Onthestreet
PropertyofTimBlixeth
<45yearsold LifestyleBuyer >55– LandEthic– InvestmentBuyer
41 42
1/10/2019 22
AdditionalPerspectives
43 44
1/10/2019 23
He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts – for support rather than for illumination.
45 46
1/10/2019 24
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018 #SalesCount Ave$/AcreAverageLandValuesforSalesTransactions40AcresandLarger ID,MT,OR,andWA
Ave$/Acre NumberofSalesSource:NWFCSdatabase
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018 #SalesCount Ave$/AcreAverageLandValuesforSalesTransactions40AcresandLarger ID,MT,OR,andWA
Ave$/Acre NumberofSalesSource:NWFCSdatabase
47 48
1/10/2019 25
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018 Ave$/Acre
Average$/AcreLandValue PropertiesFortyAcresandGreater,byState
Idaho Montana Oregon Washington
source:NWFCSdatabase
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018 Ave$/Acre
Average$/AcreLandValue PropertiesFortyAcresandGreater,byState
Idaho Montana Oregon Washington
source:NWFCSdatabase
Washington&Montanaslightly from201617to2018 functionof higher%ofdatafromlowerpriced areas. Noareasreportinglowervalues
49 50
1/10/2019 26
Commontrendsforallnorthwest:
higher
islimited,particularlyforlargetracts
51 52
1/10/2019 27
EasternWashington LandUseorClass ValueRange Unit Activity/Trend RentalRange Unit Activity/Trend IrrigatedCropPivot $9,000 $16,000 Acre Stable $400 $800 Acre Stable IrrigatedCrop(nonpivot) $5,000 $11,000 Acre Stable $250 $450 Acre Stable IrrigatedCrop(orchard) $13,000 $19,000 Acre Stable DryCrop Annual $2,200 $3,500 Acre Stable $65 $120 Acre Stable DryCrop SummerFallow $350 $2,300 Acre Stable 25% 33% Share Stable DryPasture Rangeland $250 $500 Acre Stable $25 $30 AUM Stable
Note:valuerangesarenotallencompassing,butaremosttypical
WJ1
CentralWAOrchardsArea
53 54
Slide 53 WJ1
Wiley, Jim, 12/28/2018
1/10/2019 28
CentralWashingtonOrchards LandUseorClass ValueRange Unit Activity/Trend Orchard Apples&Cherries $12,000 $22,000 Acre Stable IrrigatedCrop OrchardSite $8,000 $14,000 Acre Stable
92018~$171M19,525totalacres$8,747/ac. 18,386deeded$9,289/ac. ~13,350acrespivotirr– 130pivots$12,700/ac.
J.Hancock– 100CLLC(AngelinaAgCo.– Louisiana;Kirkland, WA)notlistedforsale“motive– wealthpreservation”
55 56
1/10/2019 29
EasternRegion LandUseorClassValueRange Unit Activity/Trend RentalRange Unit Activity/Trend IrrigatedCrop $2,750 $8,000 Acre Stable/Increasing $100 $350 Acre Stable DryCrop $700 $2,500 Acre Stable/Increasing $25 $50 Acre Stable Pasture $450 $2,500 Acre Stable/Increasing $15 $35 AUM Stable
57 58
1/10/2019 30
SouthernRegion—MagicValleyArea LandUseorClass ValueRange Unit Activity/Trend RentalRange Unit Activity/Trend IrrigatedCrop $5,000 $10,000 Acre Stable/Increasing$275 $400 Acre Stable DryPasture/Range $350 $1,000 Acre Stable/Increasing$18 $30 AUM Stable WesternRegion—TreasureValleyAreas LandUseorClass ValueRange Unit Activity/Trend Rental Range Unit Activity/Trend IrrigatedCrop $5,000 $10,000 Acre Stable $150 $450 Acre Stable DryPasture/Range $400 $2,900 Acre Stable $18 $30 AUM Stable
59 60
1/10/2019 31 Perspectivesfromaninstitutionalinvestor PrimarilyactiveinIdahoandWashington,someOregon
61 62
1/10/2019 32
RandomTrivia? Whereis99%ofU.S.hops produced?
ID.13% WA.75% OR.11%
99%intheNorthwest! 63 64
1/10/2019 33
In Conclusion: If you torture the data long enough, it will confess!
65 66
1/10/2019 34
SouthernIdaho
significantinfluence
irrigatedlands
Montanadairy Idahodairy
67 68
1/10/2019 35
69 70
1/10/2019 36
71 72
1/10/2019 37
MONTANA LAND SOURCE
The Most Comprehensive Source for the
Large-Acreage Montana Land Market
73 74
1/10/2019 38
MONTANA LAND SOURCE
What we do:
listings and sales 200 acres and greater
Updated Daily!!!hunting districts, wildfires, and more
week with all new market activity
MONTANA LAND SOURCE
75 76
1/10/2019 39
MONTANA LAND SOURCE
New Developments:
Free public version Daily Property Updates on Website Real Time Market Statistics Weekly email market updates available to non-
subscribers
Property advertising
MONTANA LAND SOURCE
www.MTLandSource.com 77 78
1/10/2019 40
Montana Land Source Map App
Mapped Listings, Pending Sales and Sales
Current Listing Statistics
All of Montana – 200 Acres and Greater
Total Number of Active Listings: 595 Percent of Listings with Price Changes: 31% Average Percent Price Change: - 23% Average DOM: 572 days (up 21%) Total Number of Acres Listed: 1,222,825 acres Average Acreage: 2,103 acres Average Land Price Per Acre: $3,077 Total Sum of Listing Prices: $2,064,700,000
79 80
1/10/2019 41
Current Listing Statistics
All of Montana – 200 Acres and Greater
200400Acres 38%
4001,000Acres 29% 1,0005,000Acres 24% 5,00010,000Acres 6% >10,000Acres 4%
Current Listing Statistics
All of Montana – 200 Acres and Greater
$500,000 $1,000,000 20% $1,000,000 $2,500,000 28% $100,000 $500,000 14% $2,500,000 $5,000,000 19% $5,000,000 $10,000,000 11% >10,000,000 8%
81 82
1/10/2019 42
2018 Statistics
All of Montana – 200 Acres and Greater
Expired/Withdrawn 23% Sold19% CarryoverListings 58%
2018 Statistics
All of Montana – 200 Acres and Greater
Recap – Based on 2018 Data: Less than 20% of listings sell each year Over 20% of listings expire or are
withdrawn
More properties are taken off the market
than sell!!!
83 84
1/10/2019 43
Montanalandstudy– 2018
Volume– considering properties640acresinsize andgreater
Increaseinaverage$/acresellingprice largelyattributabletotheWestern Montanamarket accountsforroughly 60percentofthedata Numberof transactions Volume Average $/acresales price(ULV) Year Dollars Acres 2017 163 $594,658,109 585,311 $1,386 2018 139 $519,828,189 339,851 $1,750 Change 15% 13% 42% 26%
85 86
1/10/2019 44
2018Marketactivitysegmentedbypropertysize– Properties640acres insizeandgreater
600acres<1,000acres 37% 1,000acres<2,000acres 31% 2,000acres<10,000acres 28% 10,000acres 4%
2018Marketactivitysegmentedbypropertysize– Properties640acres insizeandgreater
600acres<1,000acres 37 1,000acres<2,000acres 31% 2,000acres<10,000acres 28% 10,000acres 4%
Year Category 2017 2018 600acres<1,000acres 36.81% 36.76% 1,000acres<2,000acres 28.22% 30.88% 2,000acres<10,000acres 28.22% 27.94% 10,000acres 6.75% 4.41% 2018 Propertieslessthan2,000acresinsize madeup67percentofthemarketin 2018,upfrom65percentin2017
87 88
1/10/2019 45
2018Marketactivitysegmentedbytransactionsize– Properties640 acresinsizeandgreater
<$1,000,000 27% $1,000,000<$3,000,000 41% $3,000,000<$5,000,000 13% $5,000,000<$10,000,000 9% $10,000,000 10%
2018Marketactivitysegmentedbytransactionsize– Properties640 acresinsizeandgreater
>$1,000,000 27% $1,000,000< $3,000,000 41% $3,000,000< $5,000,000 13% $5,000,000< $10,000,000 9% $10,000,000 10%
Year Category 2017 2018 >$1,000,000 30.06% 27.21% $1,000,000<$3,000,000 38.65% 41.18% $3,000,000<$5,000,000 13.50% 13.24% $5,000,000<$10,000,000 9.20% 8.82% $10,000,000 8.59% 9.56% 2018 Transactionslessthan$5million representedroughly82percentofthe marketin2017and2018
89 90
1/10/2019 46
2018Marketactivitysegmentedbytransactionsize– Properties640 acresinsizeandgreater
>$1,000,000 27% $1,000,000< $3,000,000 41% $3,000,000< $5,000,000 13% $5,000,000< $10,000,000 9% $10,000,000 10%
2018 Transactions$5millionandless representedroughly82percentofthe marketin2017and2018 Ourdatashowsatotalsalesvolumeof $519,828,189in2018
Category Percentof market Totaldollars Transactions<$5,000,000 81.62% $424,271,537 Transactions$5,000,000 18.38% $95,556,652
Distributionofunimproveddollarperacresalespricetogetherwith averagevaluesforproperties640acresinsizeandgreaterfrom throughoutMontanafor2017and2018
2017 2017Average, $1,386 2018 2018Average, $1,750 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 Suggestsanincreasein averagevaluesofroughly 26percentfrom2017
91 92
1/10/2019 47
Distributionofunimproveddollarpersalespricevaluestogetherwith averagevaluesforproperties640acresinsizeandgreaterfrom throughoutMontanafor2017and2018
2017 2017Average, $1,386 2018 2018Average, $1,750 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 Suggestsanincreasein averagevaluesofroughly 26percentfrom2017 Medianvalues: 2017=$850/acre 2018=$1,000/acre Anincreaseorroughly18.50percent
Distributionofunimproveddollarpersalespricetogetherwithaverage valuesforproperties640acresinsizeandgreaterfromthroughout Montanafor2017and2018,contrastedto2009
2017 2017Average,$1,386 2018 2018Average,$1,750 2009 2009Average, $728 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000
93 94
1/10/2019 48
95 96
1/10/2019 49
Deededacressoldtogetherwith numberoftransactionfrom2014 through2018 WesternMontana properties640acresinsizeand greatercontrastedtothenumberof transactionsoccurringin2005
57 49 44 42 82 20 40 60 80 100
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NUMBEROFTRANSACTIONS NUMBEROFACRES 2005peakinnumberoftransaction Totalacres Numberoftransactions 83transactionsin2005
Numberoftransactionsin2018 reflectiveofthatseenin2005
Dataindicatesthenumberof transactionspeakedin2005 323,895deededacrestradedin 2005comparedto193,079 acresin2018
Averagesize
Comparisonofthenumberoftransactionsbetween2001 2005and 2014 2018
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 25 50 75 100 NUMBEROFTRANSACTIONS 20012005 20142018
97 98
1/10/2019 50
Totaldollarsalesvolumecomparisonbetween2001 2005and2014– 2018– showingthetrendthrough2009
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 25 50 75 100 NUMBEROFTRANSACTIONS 20012009 20142018
$422,354,540 $217,076,237 $137,442,392 $249,843,915 $220,503,374 $ $250,000,000 $500,000,000 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
TotalWesternMontanasalesvolume2014through 2018forproperties640acresinsizeandgreater Year Volume Annual percentage change 2014 $220,503,374 49% 2015 $249,843,915 13% 2016 $137,442,392 45% 2017 $217,076,237 58% 2018 $422,354,540 95% Salesvolumein2018up95percentfrom 2017 2018totalsalesvolumenearingthepeak
2005
WesternMontanaSalesVolume
99 100
1/10/2019 51
Totaldollarsalesvolumecomparisonbetween2001 2005and2014 2018
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $ $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 ANNUALSALESVOLUME
Totaldollarsalesvolumecomparisonbetween2001 2005and2014 – 2018– showingtotrendinto2009
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $ $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 ANNUALSALESVOLUME
101 102
1/10/2019 52
Averagedollarperacrevaluestogetherwithannualpercentagechange forWesternMontanarelativetothedollarperacrevalueexperiencedin 2007 properties640acresinsizeandgreater
$2,066 25.9% 8.9% 2.5% 31.7% 14.7% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% $ $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ANNUALPERCENTAGECHANGE AVERAGEDOLLARPERACRE YEAR 2007high$acrevalue Average$/acre Percentagechange
2007averagevalue$1,909/acre
Comparisonofoveralldollarperacressalespricesbetween2003 2007 and2014 2018
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 $ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 OVERALLAVERAGE$/ACRESALESPRICE 20142018 20032007
103 104
1/10/2019 53
Comparisonofoveralldollarperacressalespricesbetween2003 2007 and2014– 2018– showingthetrendthrough2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 OVERALLAVERAGE$/ACRESALESPRICE
Averagedollarperacre(ULV)togetherwithnumberoftransactionoccurringfrom 2003through2018inWesternMontana– 640acresinsizeandlarger(NCWheeler andAssociates,2018).
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 $ $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Numberoftransactions Averagedollarperacre(ULV) Averageperacrevalue(ULV) Numberofsales
105 106
1/10/2019 54
MONTANA LAND SOURCE
The Most Comprehensive Source for the
Large-Acreage Montana Land Market
2018 Statistics
All of Montana – 200 Acres and Greater
Total 2018 Sales = 194 Percent of Listings with Price Change: 41% Average Percent of Price Change: - 34% Average Land Value Per Acre: $1,502/acre (down
17%)
Average DOM: 528 (up 21%)
107 108
1/10/2019 55
USDA Data East MT / West MT Split
109 110
1/10/2019 56
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 100 150 200 250 300
Year
NumberofSales
AllMTSales WestMTSales EastMTSales
Number of Sales by Year
Total MT 2018 Sales = 194 Number of Current Listings = 595 = Over 3 years inventory
Median $/Acre Land Values by Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Year MedianLandValue$/Acre
WestMTSales AllMTSales EastMTSales
111 112
1/10/2019 57
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average DOM Year
East MT Sales All MT Sales West MT Sales
Average Days on Market (DOM) by Year
Average DOM all of current listings = 571
Sale Price as a Percent
20 40 60 80 100 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Median Land Value $/Acre Year
East MT Sales All MT Sales West MT Sales
113 114
1/10/2019 58 Thank you Land Brokers and other Rural Real Estate Professionals for your support!!!
The more data you share, the better analysis we can provide!!!
“SometimesIwritedrunkandrevisesober,andsometimesI writesoberandrevisedrunk.Butyouhavetohaveboth elementsincreation…” PeterDeVries;Reuben,Reuben(1964)
115 116
1/10/2019 59
North Central Montana South Central Montana
117 118
1/10/2019 60
Eastern Montana North Central Montana
119 120
1/10/2019 61
North Central Montana
Land Class Value Range Unit Activity / Trend Rental Range Unit Activity / Trend Irrigated Crop $2,000 - $3,500 Acre Stable $75 - $125 Acre Stable Dry Crop $800 - $1,400 Acre Stable / Increasing $25 - $40 Acre Stable / Decreasing Pasture / Range $350 - $800 Acre Stable $20 - $40 AUM Stable 2017 Land Class Value Range Unit Activity / Trend Rental Range Unit Activity / Trend Irrigated Crop $2,500 - $4,000 Acre Stable / Increasing $75 - $125 Acre Stable Dry Crop $800 - $1,800 Acre Stable / Increasing $25 - $50 Acre Stable Pasture / Range $350 - $800 Acre Stable $20 - $40 AUM Stable 2018
10 8 27 21 21 19 16 18 10 8 5 10 15 20 25 30 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
IrrigatedCrop
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
North Central Montana
121 122
1/10/2019 62
41 63 70 92 66 36 54 58 62 41 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
DryCrop
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
North Central Montana
42 61 94 94 68 56 59 72 50 44 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
Pasture/Range
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
North Central Montana
123 124
1/10/2019 63
$ $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $ $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 DollarsperAcre DollarsperBushelWheatPricevs.DryCropLandValues
WheatPriceinDollarsperBushel Median$/Acre Linear(WheatPriceinDollarsperBushel) Linear(Median$/Acre)North Central Montana South Central Montana
125 126
1/10/2019 64
South Central Montana
Land Class Value Range Unit Activity / Trend Rental Range Unit Activity / Trend Irrigated Crop $1,800 - $4,000 Acre Stable/Increasing $70 - $150 Acre Stable Dry Crop $500 - $750 Acre Stable $20 - $35 Acre Stable Pasture / Range $350 - $700 Acre Stable $20 - $30 AUM Stable 2017 Land Class Value Range Unit Activity / Trend Rental Range Unit Activity / Trend Irrigated Crop $2,500 - $6,000 Acre Stable/Increasing $70 - $150 Acre Stable Dry Crop $550 - $800 Acre Stable $20 - $35 Acre Stable Pasture / Range $400 - $800 Acre Stable $20 - $30 AUM Stable 2018
6 8 20 22 20 2 14 18 9 8 5 10 15 20 25 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
IrrigatedCrop
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
South Central Montana
127 128
1/10/2019 65
10 6 17 11 10 2 10 7 10 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
DryCrop
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
South Central Montana
14 20 54 49 39 9 48 50 60 20 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
Pasture/Range
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
South Central Montana
129 130
1/10/2019 66
Eastern Montana Eastern Montana
Land Class Value Range Unit Activity / Trend Rental Range Unit Activity / Trend Irrigated Crop $1,250 - $3,500 Acre Stable $40 - $200 Acre Stable Dry Crop $425 - $1,000 Acre Stable $22 - $40 Acre Stable Pasture / Range $275 - $650 Acre Stable $18 - $50 AUM Stable 2017 Land Class Value Range Unit Activity / Trend Rental Range Unit Activity / Trend Irrigated Crop $1,250 - $3,500 Acre Stable/Increasing $40 - $200 Acre Stable Dry Crop $500 - $1,000 Acre Stable $22 - $40 Acre Stable Pasture / Range $300 - $650 Acre Stable $18 - $50 AUM Stable 2018
131 132
1/10/2019 67
26 27 25 35 15 29 26 8 17 13 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
IrrigatedCrop
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
Eastern Montana
35 48 29 39 21 44 41 35 45 25 10 20 30 40 50 60 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
DryCrop
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
Eastern Montana
133 134
1/10/2019 68
80 112 111 110 83 123 92 63 75 58 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NumberofSales DollarsperAcre
Pasture/Range
Median$/Acre Mean$/Acre NumberofSales Linear(Median$/Acre)
Eastern Montana
135 136
1/10/2019 69
Bozeman’sBoomv.2.0 ALookatRecentDevelopmentPatternsandInfluences
137 138
1/10/2019 70
Sobynow everyone’sgotten thememo….
USNews&WorldReport USAToday Forbes MoneyMagazine WallStreetJournal LATimes etc.,etc.,etc…
Source:DowntownBozemanImprovementPlanUpdate Oct2018 https://downtownbozeman.org/plan
Trend Actual
ButWe’veBeenHereBefore,Right?(NotReally….)
2003– 2008(“GoGoDays”)
2013– 2018(CurrentCycle)
InfillAND NewSubdivision
139 140
1/10/2019 71
Bozeman’sskylinein Nov’18(+4)
Fall2018=16,902 (+24.6%)
2017=599,176 (+38.3%)
97,000sf/$40MM
IndustrySectors
ProfessionalSvcs, OutdoorProducts Mfg/Distribution
Construction,Retail
MapSource:DowntownBozemanImprovementPlanUpdate Oct2018 https://downtownbozeman.org/plan
N.19th
Corridor
N.7th
MarketPlace/ W.Huffine
Bozeman’sGrowth– Reaching“CriticalMass”
PopulationNumbers
StatisticalArea(outof551areas thatsurroundcitiesw/1050K residents)
atendof2017(allofGallatinCty)
sustained,aratethatwilldouble populationin20years)
EconomicClassification
populationexceeds50Kresidents)
economiccapacityandmarket potential
town”to“urban”businessclimate
141 142
1/10/2019 72
2009’12
“
Patterns
2013’14
“
subdivisionlots createdover thetwoyears combined
143 144
1/10/2019 73
2015
newsubdivision lotscreated
2016
“
newsubdivision lotscreated
145 146
1/10/2019 74
2017
“
newsubdivision lotscreated
2018
“
newsubdivision lotscreated
+/ 1,650totalnew subdivisionlotsover thelast4years
147 148
1/10/2019 75
2018
“
newsubdivision lotscreated
+/ 1,650totalnew subdivisionlotsover thelast4years (withmoreplanned)
Current Development Activity
ProjectsUnder Review/Approvals InProcess
150
1/10/2019 76
Current Development Activity
ProjectsUnder Review/Approvals InProcess
Bozeman
from 2009– ‘18:
HousingUnitsAdded OfficeSpace Created NewHotels
Source:DowntownBozemanImprovementPlanUpdate Oct2018 https://downtownbozeman.org/plan
151 152
1/10/2019 77
Downtown Bozeman
NowOnthe Horizon
Source:DowntownBozemanImprovementPlanUpdate Oct2018 https://downtownbozeman.org/plan
Downtown Bozeman
LookingAhead
Source:DowntownBozemanImprovementPlanUpdate Oct2018 https://downtownbozeman.org/plan
153 154
1/10/2019 78
UpinBigSky
“Stuff’s”Rolling Downhill….”
Yellowstone Club SpanishPeaks MtnClub Moonlight Basin
BigSky Resort
Town Center BigSky Meadow Village Hwy191/ Canyon Village
BigSky:Bozeman’s“X”Factor
economicspillovertotheBozemaneconomy
identity
andhotelcapacitycontinuetodevelop
155 156
1/10/2019 79
BigSky:Bozeman’s“X”Factor
purchaseprices
BigSky:Bozeman’s“X”Factor
157 158
1/10/2019 80
2009’14
“
“
160
1/10/2019 81
2018
“
anticipated
startingat$59K (4050%ofBozeman pricepoints)
$325Kfinished homes
BozemanBoomv.2.0 ALookatAreaMarketActivity
161 162
1/10/2019 82
GreaterBozemanArea
MaryKathrynTennilleCertifiedResidential
AppraisalServicesofBozemanInc.
inthecountry.
increasesalespricearoundthearea.
163 164
1/10/2019 83
EastBozeman
EastBozemanMedianSalesData ForSingleFamilyHomes
(Eastof19th Ave)
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 181 $394,000 $182 30 2016 163 $420,000 $201 19 2017 149 $460,000 $224 24 2018 177 $501,000 $246 17 %Change 2% 27% 35% 43%
165 166
1/10/2019 84
EastBozeman
landvaluebeingignored.
footprint
WestBozeman
hasincreased32%duringsametime
167 168
1/10/2019 85
WestBozemanMedianSalesData ForSingleFamilyHomes
(Westof19th Ave)
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 254 $291,500 $167 36 2016 300 $322,700 $178 24 2017 318 $346,281 $195 24 2018 324 $384,940 $213 26 %Change 27% 32% 28% 28%
BozemanMedianSalesData
100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000
41800 42000 42200 42400 42600 42800 43000 43200 43400 43600
MedianSalePrice
EastVsWest BozemanWest BozemanEast
169 170
1/10/2019 86
FourCorners
FourCornersMedianSalesData ForSingleFamily
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 110 $343,590 $143 51 2016 139 $372,500 $153 41 2017 131 $414,000 $170 28 2018 132 $444,276 $188 23 %Change 20% 29% 32% 55%
171 172
1/10/2019 87
Belgrade
thesprawlhasseenanincreaseof192%
BelgradeMedianSalesData
ExpansionAreas
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 41 $215,900 $148 22 2016 71 $270,250 $166 29 2017 126 $298,375 $183 13 2018 120 $337,500 $193 24 %Change 192% 56% 30% 9%
DowntownArea
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 91 $217,500 $124 27 2016 91 $237,000 $135 12 2017 93 $258,000 $133 10 2018 102 $286,500 $151 14 %Change 12% 32% 22% 48%
173 174
1/10/2019 88
Belgrade
Belgrade
upgrades,Jackrabbitcorridor)
175 176
1/10/2019 89
2018– 765sales
177 178
1/10/2019 90
Livingston
$30,000.Followedby$40,000justlastyear.
179 180
1/10/2019 91
LivingstonMedianSalesData
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 145 $190,000 $100 28 2016 135 $199,900 $107 26 2017 150 $230,000 $130 25 2018 137 $270,000 $158 24 %Change 6% 42% 59% 14%
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000
December14 May16 September17 February19
SalePrice
MedianSalesPrice
BigSky
181 182
1/10/2019 92
BigSkyMedianSalesData
SingleFamilyHomes
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 53 $1,050,000 $360 159 2016 51 $1,100,000 $533 214 2017 60 $1,296,250 $431 146 2018 64 $1,662,500 $497 65 %Change 15% 58% 38% 59%
Condominiums
#ofSales SalePrice $/Sq.Ft. D.O.M. 2015 130 $325,000 $236 90 2016 173 $335,000 $241 118 2017 178 $382,500 $281 86 2018 193 $440,000 $307 63 %Change 48% 35% 30% 30%
$0 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 Jun14 Dec14 Jul15 Jan16 Aug16 Mar17 Sep17 Apr18 Oct18 May19
SalePrice Date
MedianSalePricePerMonth
SingleFamily Condominium 183 184
1/10/2019 93
TheMontageatBigSkyResort
Montana’sFirstUltraLuxuryResort atSpanishPeaksClub
TheYellowstoneClub’sVillageCore
185 186
1/10/2019 94
YellowstoneClubVillageVirtualTour Acknowledgements
Map.
AllMarketDatapresentedisretainedinworkfile. 187 188
1/10/2019 95
www.partandparcelmt.com
189 190
1/10/2019 96
191 192
1/10/2019 97
2018 ~64sales 2018 ~64sales
SalePrice Range:295K– 464K Ave:~$360,000
193 194
1/10/2019 98
2018 ~64sales
SalePrice Range:295K– 464K Ave:~$360,000
2018 ~64sales
Price/Sqft Range:$137– $229 Ave:~$189
195 196
1/10/2019 99
2018 ~64sales
Price/Sqft Range:$137– $229 Ave:~$189
197 198
1/10/2019 100
199 200
1/10/2019 101
201 202
1/10/2019 102
203 204
1/10/2019 103
205 206
1/10/2019 104
207 208
1/10/2019 105
209 210
1/10/2019 106
~670
~180
~50
15 211 212
1/10/2019 107 ThankYou SeeyouallNextYear
213 214