Future Force Design: the importance of social, cultural, human and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1

Future Force Design: the importance of social, cultural, human and political factors

Chris Manning

UNCLASSIFIED

2

Outline

• Call to arms
• Background

– Modelling Complex Warfighting, Strategic Research Initiative – Strategic Response 4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty

• Collaboration opportunities

– “Complex systems design”

• Conclusion

3

Call to arms

• Drivers

– First Principles Review – Force Design Process – Capability Life Cycle

• Changes

– Future Operating Environment and trends in future warfare

• Emerging technology
• Contested urban environments
• Robotic and autonomous systems

Given the rapid change to a highly networked cyber world, how does the ADF ensure it isn’t optimising for the wrong war?

4

Creating the Future Force

PREPARE AND EMPLOY THE CURRENT FORCE DESIGN AND DEVELOP THE FUTURE FORCE

CONNECTED THROUGH TIME

5

Modelling Complex Warfighting (MCW)

• DST Group is launching the MCW Strategic Research

Initiative.

• It forms part of the CDS-sponsored strategic research

program.

• It draws on JOAD’s operations analysis capabilities and

experience supporting individual domains.

• Through partnership with academia and industry the SRI will

revolutionise the application of OA to future force design.

Revolutionise Operations Analysis Enhance Force Design

6

Modelling Complex Warfighting Research Themes

Scientific methods to enable robust Force Design decisions to produce a resilient force through the understanding and management of uncertainty in Defence. Methods to enable understanding of properties of the joint force emerging as a result of nonlinear interactions between the many constituent elements. Novel modelling and simulation techniques to enable exploration of whole-of-force warfighting concepts and force options.

Conquering Uncertainty

Synthesis of analytical and simulation results to support development of a joint force which is integrated by design.

Modelling complexity Knowledge synthesis Innovative simulations

7

MCW SRI: Strategic Responses (SR)

Current Force Future Force

Conquering Uncertainty Modelling complexity Knowledge synthesis Innovative simulations

SR 5: Capability decision evaluation under uncertainty SR 6: Concepts for complexity-enabled warfare SR 2: Simulation-based concept exploration SR7: Modelling unknowns SR 4: Modelling complex human systems SR 3: Force design data life cycle SR 1: Machine discovered behaviour 10 20

Time Horizon (years)

8

• Holistic analysis including social, cultural, human and

political factors

• Comprehensive understanding, impacts and insights of

force design options and effects

• Aims

– Develop suite of methods to analyse and synthesise uncertainty of future operating environment and force design – Framework for operationalisation of factors and inclusion in force design process

SR4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty

9

Complex Systems Design

Complex Systems Design is an “umbrella” term for candidate tools that could be applied to Land Force Design

• Ranging from

– Interpret/develop strategy and guidance (SODA) – Emergent design (Systemic Design) – Iterative design (Adversarial Scenario Analysis)

• Bridging the gap from

– Understanding the environment (Futures & Scenario Analysis) – Evaluating (Wargaming and Red Teaming)

10

An Example

• Enable the Land Force to effectively operate in an irreducibly

uncertain future.

– Transform the Land Force to avoid strategic shock – Build and test future Land Force in a Joint context – Ensure the combined arms team of the future is a robust, adaptive and potent force optimised for sustained close combat – Support development of Land Force Strategy and Concepts – Support the development of Land Force structures – Understand the future land operating environment to hedge against unacceptable risk – Enable more informed decision making – Partnership for conceptual analysis

• ADF provide SMEs (creative thinkers) and DST in collaboration with

industry/academia provide framework to apply S&T rigour (lead analysis)

11

Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

• Proposed design principles

– Adopt distributed operations framework – Embrace expeditionary philosophy – Seek independent self-contained combat teams – Embrace unconventional warfare/irregular warfare – Embrace full multi-dimension manoeuvre – Employ reach back as a key enabler to offset “Light” – Effects driven vs Terrain focussed – “Whilst light, carry a big stick” – Emphasize Phase 0 operations to shape the Battlespace early

12

Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

• Codename: FireAnt

– A mindset for design of future structures and operating concepts – a small, agile, swarming force that would strike terror into adversaries even if they were larger

13

Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

• Develop concepts that inform novel ways to fight and

integrate Information Warfare into the broader

• perational campaign

– Design force options that enhance the Future Force’s ability to

• shape and influence
• disrupt adversaries’ will to fight
• defend against and exploit emerging technologies (eg social media,

robotic and autonomous systems, precision strike)

14

Applied Research

• Use CSD methods to develop and propose force

structures and concepts designed to operate in a complex and uncertain future

• Apply CSD to explore creative and novel options for

Land Force Design

15

Collaboration Opportunities

Aims 1. Develop “design” capability and holistic analytical methodologies for whole of force 2. Embed, evaluate and refine these approaches within the Defence environment (support contestability focus) Expected outcomes

– Improve scientific rigour applied to Defence problems and achieve better outcomes for Defence – Enhance engagement and create opportunities for partnership – Support publication of research outcomes – Further development and application of methods and techniques – Improve understanding and integration of interplay between non- material (social, cultural, human and political) and material (technological and infrastructure) factors to better inform force design

16

Conclusion

• Keen to expand the range of methods available

– Engage with us beyond initial candidates (Systemic Design and SODA) for Complex Systems Design

• Timeframe

– 3-5 year research proposal – But want outcomes immediately 6-12 months

• Learn by doing

– apply existing methods to new areas or develop new methods – Build skills through practical application to real Defence problems (Force Design)

17

Questions