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WORKSHOP ON -LABELLING AND FISHERIES SUSTAINABILITY IN expectations Jonathan Banks Friday 3 December Special

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WORKSHOP ON -LABELLING AND FISHERIES SUSTAINABILITY IN

  • expectations

Jonathan Banks

Friday 3 December

Special thanks to

jonathan@jonathanbanks-associates.co.uk +44 (0)7764 635379

  • The economic downturn
  • Grocery issues
  • Consumer issues?
  • expectations
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Unemployment

5 10 15 20 25 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sources: UBS/The Economist (2010 = September)

France Britain Spain Germany

Consumer confidence index

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10

Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys to June 2010

Norway France Germany Britain Denmark

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  • 129

117 115 115 115 114 113 106 104 103 103 103 102 101 101 101 India Thailand Oz Indonesia

  • Philippines

Singapore Denmark China Brazil Malaysia Hong Kong Sweden UAE Canada Norway

Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys October 2010

33% 25% 20% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 4% 2%

Increasing utility bills The economy Job security Health Increasing food prices Children Debt Work/life balance Crime Global warming No concerns

Biggest+2nd biggest concerns in next 6 months

Source: Nielsen Global online survey: October 2010 Average of Big 5 Click in to data table for more details

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Discretionary spending: EU Big 5 averages

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10

Holidays

Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys

Home improvements New technology New clothes Out of home entertainment

Compared to this time last year, which of the following actions have you taken to save on household expenses?

41% 36% 36% 33% 29% 25% 25% 23% 21% 21% 21% 17% 13% 12% 8% Spend less on new clothes Switch to cheaper grocery brands Out-of-home entertainment Try to save on gas and electricity Cut down on holidays/short breaks Delay upgrading technology Cut down on take-away meals Cut down on telephone expenses Delay major household items Cut out annual vacation Use my car less often At-home entertainment Look for better deals on finance Alcohol Smoking

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey June 2010 Average of EU Big 5: ES, DE, GB, FR, IT

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  • The economic downturn
  • Grocery issues
  • Consumer issues?

Consumer trends and

  • Total Europe view

6.2 6.2 6.4 4.1 2.7 2.2 1.3 1.3 2.8 0.8 1.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.1 1.2

9.0 6.7 6.8 4.7 3.1 3.9 2.6 2.9 4.1 0.9 2.3

Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10

Unit value change Volume change

Nominal growth

Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter

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India Romania Russia Namibia* Lithuania Argentina China Latvia Brazil Estonia Poland Turkey Korea Japan France Slovakia Spain Czech Republic Greece Norway Sweden Finland Germany Denmark Australia Netherlands U.K. Ireland U.S.A. R2 = 0.8

Household Spend on Food (%) GDP Per Capita, US $

* Household spend on food (% ) is for Caprivi, Kavango, Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshana, and Oshikoto.

GDP per capita vs. Household spend on food

Sources: UN; International Labour Organization; allcountries.org; National Bureau Of Statistics of the The Peoples Republic Of China; swivel.com; World Resources Institute; International Finance Corporation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Global

Billions of People

9.3 billion 2.6 billion 6.8 billion

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Source: OECD

Global middle class: in billion

x2 in 40 years x2 in 15 years

The growth of modern retailing and economic development are highly correlated

GDP Per Capita, US $ Modern Format Retailing

India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Korea Argentina Taiwan Singapore U.K. Germany France Brazil 33% 66% 100% China

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Asia-Pac: Where is fish mainly purchased?

80 77 56 50 49 45 23 9 21 16 7 33 67 10 2 8 19 38 19 3

Do not buy category Modern trade Specialist /Wet market

Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends 2008

Evolution of formats in Europe

14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 22% 23% 24% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 32% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36% 12% 12% 13% 13% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 26% 27% 26% 25% 25% 25% 24% 25% 25% 26% 26% 26% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 28% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 26% 25% 23% 22% 20% 19% 18% 16% 15% 14% 12% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Trad Supret SSM LSM HM Source: Nielsen

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Europe: Where is fish mainly purchased?

46 41 34 27 26 19 19 17 15 15 14 8 6 3 45 54 48 33 44 61 69 57 46 54 59 64 67 53 3 14 26 28 19 10 22 15 27 8 24 25 20

Do not buy category Modern Trade Specialist /market

Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends 2008

Private label share:

8 years, 7 countries, 2000 categories

25% 30% 35% 40%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Value Volume

Source: Nielsen

Caution! 2009 = estimation from different data source

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Private Label evolution: brand architecture

Basic Regular Premium Better for you Better for the planet Health & Wellness Value for money Responsible consumption

Budget Private label sub-brand growth

  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Budget

2007 2008 2006

Source: Nielsen to 4 w/e 19/9/09

2009

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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

r2 = 0.93

store count share

Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends

  • The economic downturn
  • Grocery issues
  • Consumer issues?

Consumer trends and

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4 megatrends

Health/ Well-Being Ethical Convenience/ Practicality Indulgence/ Pleasure

Which of these products do you actively try to buy?

37% 33% 28% 25% 24% 23% 21% 18% 17%

Energy efficient Locally made Fairtrade Organic Ethically produced In recyclable packaging Farmer's Market Haven't travelled far to get to the store Little or no packaging

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2010, 27665 consumers in 53 countries

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13 On average, how often do you eat fish (including seafood)?

3.3 3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Philippines Malaysia Singapore Portugal Thailand Hong Kong Indonesia Japan Spain Taiwan Vietnam China Norway Denmark South Korea Russia UAE 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 Latvia Belgium Brazil Chile NZ Switzerland Venezuela Canada Turkey US Colombia Netherlands Czech Pakistan Argentina India Hungary

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey April 2008 Occasions per week Global average 1.6

1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Israel France Ireland Italy Poland Sweden UK Estonia Lithuania Egypt Australia Austria Finland Germany Greece Mexico S Africa

156 130 122 92 89 82 69 66 63 62 60 55 46 43 39 33

(g/capita/day)

Fish, Seafood* Bovine meat Pig meat Sheep and goat meat Chicken meat Other Meat

*Includes Cephalopods; Crustaceans; Demersal fish; Freshwater fish; Large Pelagic fish; Marine fish, other; and Molluscs FAOSTAT; FAO Statistics Division

Animal products per capita consumption

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US: Beef problems, poultry +200%; seafood gains

10 20 30 40 50 60

EU 15

Kg/head/year

130kg/head/yr 160kg/head/yr

Seafood Poultry Beef Pork

Source: FAO, Office de l'Elevage

USA

EU: More Beef problems (BSE, FMD); Seafood, Pig meat and Poultry gain

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15 much more fish?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Much more

France Italy Portugal Poland Greece Estonia Czech Republic Latvia Austria Lithuania Israel Belgium Ireland Hungary Germany Spain UK Denmark Russia Finland Norway Sweden Netherlands Switzerland

  • 10

10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 50

% Growth v 2008 $ billions

US LabelTrends 2009

Sources: Nielsen LabelTrends Total Food/Drug/Mass excl Wal-Mart PY +16%

/

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I am concerned about...

29% 29% 17% 51% 47% 36% the global environment climate change and global warming

  • veruse of global

fish stocks

Strongly agree Agree

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries

16% 18% 19% 28% 46% 67%

Retailers of fish products Non-governmental organisations People who buy or eat fish Fish manufacturers/processors The fishing industry Governments of countries

Who should assume responsibility for ensuring fish stocks are not overused?

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries

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Stated concern vs

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3

I am concerned about overuse of global fish stocks Eco labels have no influence on me

Not very concerned Buy sustainably labelled Not very concerned

  • Very concerned
  • Very concerned

Buy sustainably labelled SA JP LV EE CZ VN PH ID TH NO BE NZ AU AT FR GR

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey 2009

32% 31% 27% 27% 25% 23% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 13% 13% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8%

0% 50% 100%

Portugal Italy Greece Spain Turkey Ireland Israel Sweden GB Switzerland Austria Germany Russia Denmark France Belgium Czech R Poland Netherlands Hungary Finalnd Esonia Norway Latvia

Source: Nielsen Global online survey: 2009 Europe

What level of influence do product labels declaring that fish is sustainably sourced have on your purchasing decision?

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Do you prefer wild captured or farmed fish on...?

23% 21% 21% 17% 28% 26% 23% 21% 40% 44% 42% 41% 6% 7% 10% 15% 2% 3% 3% 6% Taste Nutritional content Freshness The environment

Strongly prefer wild Prefer wild captured No preference

Prefer farmed Strongly prefer farmed

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries

  • Penetration?

Trial? Frequency? Repeat purchasing? Distribution? Competitor activity? Insufficient brand equity? Display?

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  • 8%

12% 14% 15% 17% 21% 32% 33%

It's not easily available I don't know how to cook it I don't like the appearance (fins, scales, head) I'm opposed to eating fish because of my personal beliefs It's too expensive I don't like the bones I don't like the smell I don't like the taste

Global Average

Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey April 2008 Base

Consumer confusion

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276% 19%

Companies that maintained sales and marketing efforts during recession Companies that cut sales and marketing efforts during recession

Marketing in a recession...

Source: McGraw-Hill Research

Revenue growth in first 5 years after 1980's recession

Closing thoughts

  • Media doom and gloom not in the grocery data
  • Downward price pressures: private label, promotions,

discounters

  • Focus on the consumer
  • Compete on quality more than price!
  • Premium opportunities exist:

–NPD: organic?, GM?, cloning? –Sustainability: choice editing trust in retailers

  • Stay ahead of consumer sentiment and legislation

jonathan@jonathanbanks-associates.co.uk

+44 (0)7764 635379

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  • Closing thought: Profits, people, planet...

Source: Rabbi Tarfon, Pirke Avot, The Talmud

jonathan@jonathanbanks-associates.co.uk

+44 (0)7764 635379