WORKSHOP ON ���� -LABELLING AND FISHERIES SUSTAINABILITY IN �������� ������������������������������� expectations Jonathan Banks Friday 3 December Special thanks to jonathan@jonathanbanks-associates.co.uk +44 (0)7764 635379 ������������������������������� expectations • The economic downturn • Grocery issues • Consumer issues? 1
Unemployment 25 Spain 20 15 France 10 Germany Britain 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: UBS/The Economist (2010 = September) Consumer confidence index 140 130 120 110 Denmark Norway 100 90 Germany 80 Britain 70 France 60 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys to June 2010 2
������������� India 129 Thailand 117 Oz 115 Indonesia 115 ������ 115 Philippines 114 Singapore 113 Denmark 106 China 104 Brazil 103 Malaysia 103 Hong Kong 103 Sweden 102 UAE 101 Canada 101 Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys Norway 101 October 2010 Biggest+2 nd biggest concerns in next 6 months Increasing utility bills 33% 25% The economy Job security 20% Health 15% 14% Increasing food prices Children 13% 12% Debt Work/life balance 11% Crime 10% 4% Global warming No concerns 2% Source: Nielsen Global online survey: October 2010 Average of Big 5 Click in to data table for more details 3
Discretionary spending: EU Big 5 averages 45% 40% 35% New clothes Holidays 30% Out of home entertainment 25% Home improvements 20% New technology 15% Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys Compared to this time last year, which of the following actions have you taken to save on household expenses? Spend less on new clothes 41% Switch to cheaper grocery brands 36% Out-of-home entertainment 36% Try to save on gas and electricity 33% Cut down on holidays/short breaks 29% Delay upgrading technology 25% Cut down on take-away meals 25% Cut down on telephone expenses 23% Delay major household items 21% Cut out annual vacation 21% Use my car less often 21% At-home entertainment 17% Look for better deals on finance 13% Alcohol 12% Smoking 8% Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey June 2010 Average of EU Big 5: ES, DE, GB, FR, IT 4
Consumer trends and ����������������������� • The economic downturn • Grocery issues • Consumer issues? Total Europe view 9.0 2.8 6.7 6.8 0.4 0.5 4.7 4.1 3.9 0.6 3.1 2.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 1.7 2.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 6.2 6.2 6.4 4.1 2.7 2.2 1.3 1.3 2.8 0.8 1.1 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter 5
GDP per capita vs. Household spend on food Norway Ireland Denmark GDP Per Capita, US $ U.S.A. Sweden Netherlands Japan Finland U.K. Australia France Germany Spain Greece R 2 = 0.8 Czech Republic Korea Estonia Lithuania Latvia Poland Argentina Slovakia Russia Romania Turkey India Brazil China Namibia* Household Spend on Food (%) * Household spend on food (% ) is for Caprivi, Kavango, Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshana, and Oshikoto. Sources: UN; International Labour Organization; allcountries.org; National Bureau Of Statistics of the The Peoples Republic Of China; swivel.com; World Resources Institute; International Finance Corporation Global ����������� 10 9.3 billion 9 8 7 Billions of People 6.8 billion 6 5 4 3 2.6 billion 2 1 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 6
Global middle class: in billion x2 in 15 years x2 in 40 years Source: OECD The growth of modern retailing and economic development are highly correlated Singapore Germany U.K. France GDP Per Capita, US $ Taiwan Korea Argentina Malaysia Brazil India Indonesia Philippines Thailand China 66% 33% 100% Modern Format Retailing 7
Asia-Pac: Where is fish mainly purchased? 2 10 3 21 19 9 Do not 8 buy category 38 19 16 33 67 7 Modern 80 trade 77 56 50 49 45 23 Specialist /Wet market Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends 2008 Evolution of formats in Europe 26% 25% 23% 22% 20% 19% 18% 16% 15% 14% 12% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 25% 26% 26% 27% 26% 25% 25% 25% 24% 25% 25% 26% 26% 26% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 28% 12% 12% 13% 13% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 22% 23% 24% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 32% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Nielsen Trad Supret SSM LSM HM 8
Europe: Where is fish mainly purchased? 28 19 10 3 14 24 25 22 27 Do not 8 buy 26 category 45 54 15 20 48 33 44 61 69 57 46 54 59 64 67 Modern Trade 53 46 41 34 27 26 19 19 17 15 15 14 8 6 3 Specialist /market Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends 2008 Private label share: 8 years, 7 countries, 2000 categories 40% 35% Volume 30% Value 25% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Nielsen Caution! 2009 = estimation from different data source 9
Private Label evolution: brand architecture Premium Better Better for for you the planet Regular Basic Health & Value for Responsible Wellness money consumption Budget Private label sub-brand growth Budget 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2007 2008 2006 -5% Source: Nielsen to 4 w/e 19/9/09 10
45,000 r2 = 0.93 8 7 6 40,000 5 store count 35,000 4 1 3 2 0 99 30,000 98 97 96 25,000 95 93 94 92 20,000 91 15,000 10,000 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% share Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends Consumer trends and ����������������������� • The economic downturn • Grocery issues • Consumer issues? 11
4 megatrends Health/ Well-Being Indulgence/ Ethical Pleasure Convenience/ Practicality Which of these products do you actively try to buy? Energy efficient 37% Locally made 33% Fairtrade 28% Organic 25% Ethically produced 24% In recyclable packaging 23% Farmer's Market 21% Haven't travelled far to get to the 18% store Little or no packaging 17% Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2010, 27665 consumers in 53 countries 12
On average , how often do you eat fish (including seafood)? Latvia 1.4 Israel 1.6 Philippines 3.3 Belgium 1.3 France 1.5 Malaysia 3 Brazil 1.3 Ireland 1.5 Singapore 2.9 Chile 1.3 Italy 1.5 Portugal 2.8 NZ 1.3 Poland 1.5 Thailand 2.8 Switzerland Sweden 1.3 1.5 Hong Kong 2.7 Venezuela UK 1.3 1.5 Indonesia 2.6 Estonia Canada 1.2 1.5 Japan 2.6 Turkey 1.2 Lithuania 1.5 Spain 2.3 US 1.2 Egypt 1.5 Taiwan 2.3 Colombia Australia 1.4 1.2 Vietnam 2.1 Netherlands Austria 1.4 1.1 China 1.9 Finland 1.4 Czech 1.1 Norway 1.9 Germany Pakistan 1.1 Denmark 1.7 1.4 Greece Argentina 1 South Korea 1.7 1.4 Mexico India 0.9 Russia 1.7 1.4 Hungary UAE 1.7 S Africa 1.4 0.8 Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey April 2008 Occasions per week Global average 1.6 Animal products per capita consumption (g/capita/day) 156 130 122 92 89 82 69 66 63 62 60 55 46 43 39 33 Fish, Seafood* Bovine meat Pig meat Sheep and goat meat Chicken meat Other Meat *Includes Cephalopods; Crustaceans; Demersal fish; Freshwater fish; Large Pelagic fish; Marine fish, other; and Molluscs FAOSTAT; FAO Statistics Division 13
US: Beef problems, poultry +200%; seafood gains EU: More Beef problems (BSE, FMD); Seafood, Pig meat and Poultry gain USA EU 15 160kg/head/yr 130kg/head/yr 60 50 40 Kg/head/year 30 20 10 0 Seafood Poultry Beef Pork Source: FAO, Office de l'Elevage 14
�������������������������������������� much more fish? 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Much more France Italy Portugal Poland Greece Estonia Czech Republic Latvia Austria Lithuania Israel Belgium Ireland Hungary Germany Spain UK Denmark Russia Finland Norway Sweden Netherlands Switzerland US LabelTrends 2009 50 40 40 30 % Growth v 2008 $ billions 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 Sources: Nielsen LabelTrends / Total Food/Drug/Mass excl Wal-Mart PY +16% 15
I am concerned about... the global 29% 51% environment climate change and global 29% 47% warming overuse of global 17% 36% fish stocks Strongly agree Agree Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries Who should assume responsibility for ensuring fish stocks are not overused? Governments of countries 67% The fishing industry 46% Fish manufacturers/processors 28% People who buy or eat fish 19% Non-governmental organisations 18% Retailers of fish products 16% Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries 16
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