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Applications of the Classical Model Abigail Colson Antibiotic resistant bacteria by Microra is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 "Fun with Insects" by Pioneer Library System is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 "Chicago

  1. Applications of the Classical Model Abigail Colson

  2. “Antibiotic resistant bacteria” by Microra is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 "Fun with Insects" by Pioneer Library System is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 "Chicago Floods-31" by Jpos is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

  3. "antibiotic discs" by Iqbal Osman1 is licensed under CC BY 2.0 “A model wearing disponsable medical PPE” by Timely Medical staff is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5

  4. Variables of interest Bug/drug pairs Countries 1. E. coli and fluoroquinolones 1. France 2. E. coli and cephalosporins 2. Italy 3. E. coli and carbapenems 3. Spain 4. K. pneumoniae and cephalosporins 4. United Kingdom 5. K. pneumoniae and carbapenems 6. S. aureus and methicillin 7. S. pneumoniae and penicillins 8. N. gonorrhoeae and cephalosporins 9. P. aeruginosa and any treatment

  5. The Surveillance Atlas of Infectious Disease is available for use from the ECDC.

  6. E. coli resistance to carbapenems Red line: historical data from EARS-Net Data from https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219190 Dashed line: median assessments Light grey: 90% credible range Dark grey: 50% credible range Experts provided assessments for 2018, 2021, and 2026.

  7. Klebsiella resistance to carbapenems Red line: historical data from EARS-Net Data from https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219190 Dashed line: median assessments Light grey: 90% credible range Dark grey: 50% credible range Experts provided assessments for 2018, 2021, and 2026.

  8. Comparing experts and models Figure by Colson et al. is from https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219190 and licensed under CC BY 4.0

  9. Photos of two infants in an advert for Mellin's food from Wellcome Images is licensed under CC-BY-4.0

  10. Variables of interest Feeding Patterns by Age Feeding Cohorts 1 2 3 4 Breastfeeding, None 3 months 6 months 6 months Exclusive Breastfeeding, Any None 3 to 9 months None 6 to 24 months Infant Formula, 6 months None None None Exclusive Infant Formula, 6 to 15 months 3 to 15 months 6 to 15 months None Any Complementary From 6 months From 6 months From 6 months From 6 months Foods

  11. "Stormwater in Annapolis, Md." by chesbayprogram is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

  12. References Colson, A. R., et al.. (2019). Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods. PLOS ONE , 14 (7), e0219190. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219190 Colson, A. R., Cooke, R. M., & Lutter, R. (2016). How Does Breastfeeding Affect IQ? Applying the Classical Model of Structured Expert Judgment . Retrieved from Resources for the Future website: http://www.rff.org/research/publications/how- does-breastfeeding-affect-iq-applying-classical-model-structured-expert Koch, B. J., et al. (2015). Suburban watershed nitrogen retention: Estimating the effectiveness of stormwater management structures. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene , 3 , 000063. https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000063

  13. Thank you for your attention!

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