Problem Definition Techniques 4. 1. K-T Problem Critical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Problem Definition Techniques 4. 1. K-T Problem Critical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Problem Definition Techniques 4. 1. K-T Problem Critical Analysis Thinking Problem Definition Techniques 3. 2. Statement Present / Desired Restatement State Duncker Diagram Slides mainly adapted from Dr. Foglers Strategies for

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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11/5/2017

Problem Definition Techniques

1. Critical Thinking 4. K-T Problem Analysis 3. Statement Restatement 2. Present / Desired State Duncker Diagram

Problem Definition Techniques

Slides mainly adapted from Dr. Fogler’s “Strategies for Creative Problem Solving” book

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Problem Definition

  • Check problem statement with Socratic

questioning (Critical Thinking Algorithm):

  • 1. Where did the problem originate?
  • 2. Who posed the problem statement? Your boss?

Their boss? Colleague? Client?

  • 3. Can that person explain their reasoning?
  • 4. Are the reasoning and assumptions valid?
  • 5. Has that person considered different viewpoints?
  • 6. What are implications and consequences of

assumptions? Socratic Questioning is at the Heart of Critical Thinking

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Problem Definition Techniques

2. Present / Desired State Duncker Diagram

Problem Definition Techniques

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Achieve Desired State Path 1 Solution 1 Solution 2 Solution 3 Path 2 Path 3 OK Not to Achieve Desired State

Possible Paths to Desired State Solutions to Implement Paths to Desired State

Path 1 Path 2 Path 3

Possible Paths to Make OK not to Achieve Desired State

Solution 1 Solution 2 Solution 3

Solutions to Implement Paths Not to Achieve Desired State

What to do How to do it

Duncker Diagrams

Desired State New Problem Statement

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To Market, To Market

The Situation: Toasty O’s was one of the hottest selling cereals when it first came on the market. However, after several months, sales

  • dropped. The consumer survey department was able to identify that

customer dissatisfaction, as expressed in terms of taste, was related to the age of the cereal. Consequently, management determined that they must streamline the production process to get the cereal

  • n the store shelves faster, thus ensuring a fresher product.

Engineering had quite a time with this problem - there wasn’t much slack time that could be removed from the process to accomplish the goal. Of the steps required to get the product on the shelves (production, packaging, storage, and shipping) production was one

  • f the fastest. However, plans for building plants closer to the major

markets were considered as was trying to add more trucks to get the cereal to market faster.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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To Market, To Market

Sales of Toasty O’s are dropping. Consumer surveys have indicated a dissatisfaction with a stale taste. Perceived Problem: “Streamline the production process to get the cereal on the store shelves faster, thus ensuring a fresher product.” However, production was one of the fastest steps in getting the product to market. Second Perceived Problem: Get the Cereal to Market Faster

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Get Cereal to Market faster

Build More Plants Closer to Market Locations

Hire former race Car drivers

Improve Transportation System

Ignore speed limits Charter jets for trips >1000 mi

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To Market, To Market

Sales of Toasty O’s are dropping. Consumer surveys have indicated a dissatisfaction with a stale taste. Perceived Problem: “Streamline the production process to get the cereal on the store shelves faster, thus ensuring a fresher product.” However, production was one of the fastest steps in getting the product to market.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Make it OK NOT to get cereal to market faster

Add a chemical to slow down the spoiling reaction

Stop Making Cereal

Make boxes tighter and more impermeable to air and moisture

Convince Customers that Stale=Good Make Cereal Stay Fresher Longer

Thus, the following options were considered:

  • Build plants closer to market
  • Add more trucks

These options require a major capital investment.

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To Market, To Market

Original Statement How to get cereal to market faster. The real problem was that the cereal was not staying fresh long enough, not that it wasn’t getting to market fast enough. New Problem Statement How to make boxes tighter and to determine appropriate additive to slow down the spoiling reaction

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Make it OK NOT to get cereal to market faster

Add a chemical to slow down the spoiling reaction

Stop Making Cereal

Make boxes tighter and more impermeable to air and moisture

Convince Customers that Stale=Good Make Cereal Stay Fresher Longer

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To Market Example – Dunker approach

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Example: Teaching

  • Problem: kindergarten teacher burned out from 25 years
  • f teaching.

Quit teaching:

  • 1. Find a new job:

1. Office manager. 2. Sales person.

  • 2. Retire.

Make it OK not to quit:

  • 1. More leisure time:

1. teach alternate terms, 2. teach half days.

  • 2. Lower stress level:

1. teach different grade, 2. get more control over content.

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Problem Definition Techniques

  • 1. Critical

Thinking 4. K-T Problem Analysis 3. Statement Restatement 2. Present / Desired State Duncker Diagram

Problem Definition Techniques

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

Problem Definition Techniques

3. Statement Restatement

Problem Definition Techniques

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Statement Restatement Technique

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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Perceived Problem Restatement Restatement Final Problem Statement

Relax Constraints

Make Opposite Statement

Generalize

Stating the Real Problem

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Problem Statement Triggers

  • 1. Vary the stress pattern—try placing emphasis
  • n different words and phrases.
  • 2. Choose a term that is defined explicitly and

substitute the explicit definition in each place that the term appears.

  • 3. Make an opposite statement, change

positives to negatives, and vice versa.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Problem Statement Triggers

  • 4. Change “every” to “some,” “always” to

“sometimes,” “sometimes” to “never,” and vice versa.

  • 5. Replace “persuasive words” in the problem

statement such as “obviously,” “clearly,” and “certainly” with the argument it is supposed to be replacing.

  • 6. Express words in the form of an equation or

picture, and vice versa.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Using the Triggers

Original Problem Statement: Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness Trigger 1: Vary Stress Pattern Read the sentence with emphasis on each of these words – what questions do they suggest?

  • Cereal
  • Getting
  • Market
  • Freshness

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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11/2/2017

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Using the Triggers

Original Problem Statement: Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness Trigger 1: Vary Stress Pattern

  • Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness .

(Do other products we have get there faster?)

  • Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness.

(Can we make the distance/time shorter?)

  • Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness.

(How can we keep cereal fresher, longer?)

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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11/2/2017

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Using the Triggers

Original Problem Statement: Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness Trigger 3: Make an Opposite Statement

  • How can we find a way to get the cereal to market so slowly that it

will never be fresh? (Makes us think about how long we have to maintain freshness and what controls it?)

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Using the Triggers

Original Problem Statement: Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness Trigger 4: Change “every” to “some”

  • Cereal is not getting to market fast enough to always maintain

freshness. (This change opens new avenues of thought. Why isn’t our cereal always fresh?)

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Using the Triggers

Original Problem Statement: Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness Trigger 5: Replace “persuasive” words The problem statement implies that we obviously want to get the cereal to market faster to maintain freshness. Thus, if we could speed up delivery freshness would be maintained. Maybe not! Maybe the store holds it too long. Maybe it’s stale before it gets to the store. (This trigger helps us challenge implicit assumptions made in the problem statement.)

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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11/2/2017

Challenge assumptions:

  • “Clearly” suggests an assumption.
  • Maybe cereal doesn’t get to store fresh?
  • Maybe the store holds it too long.
  • Maybe it is stale before it leaves the factory.
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Using the Triggers

Original Problem Statement: Cereal not getting to market fast enough to maintain freshness Trigger 6: Express the words in the form of an equation

  • Freshness is inversely proportional to the time since the cereal was

baked, i.e.

  • What does the proportionality constant, k, depend upon?

storage conditions, packaging, type of cereal, additives, etc.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

   

Baked Cereal Since Time k Freshness 

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Asprin Coating

The Situation: To many people, taking aspirin tablets is a foul tasting experience. A few years ago, a number of companies making aspirin decided to do something about

  • it. The instructions given by the manager to his staff to

solve the perceived problem were: “Find a way to put a pleasant tasting coating on aspirin tablets.” Spraying the coating on the tablets had been tried, with very little

  • success. The resulting coating was very non-uniform and

this led to an unacceptable product. Let's apply the triggers to this problem.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Asprin Coating

The instructions given by the manager to his staff to solve the perceived problem were: “Find a way to put a pleasant-tasting coating on aspirin tablets.”

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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“Trigger” Statements

“Find a way to put a pleasant tasting coating on aspirin tablets.”

Trigger 1

Emphasize different parts of the statement

  • 1. Put coating on tablet.

Trigger 3

Make an opposite statement

  • 2. Take coating off tablet.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Making an Opposite Statement

This led to one of the newer techniques for coating pills. The pills are immersed in a liquid which id passed onto a spinning disk. The centrifugal force on the fluid and the pills causes the two to separate, leaving a nice thin coating around the pill.

Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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10/31/2017

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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11/2/2017

Problem Definition Techniques

  • 1. Critical

Thinking 4. K-T Problem Analysis 3. Statement Restatement 2. Present / Desired State Duncker Diagram

Problem Definition Techniques

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Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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11/2/2017

Problem Definition Techniques

4. K-T Problem Analysis

Problem Definition Techniques

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Kepner-Tregoe Decision Making Strategy

Components

1. Situation appraisal. 2. Problem analysis. 3. Decision analysis. 4. Potential problem analysis.

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Useful for troubleshooting, where cause of problem is not known. Basic premise is that there is something that distinguishes what the problem IS from what it IS NOT.

The distinction column is the most important.

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K.T. Problem Analysis

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IS IS NOT Distinction Cause

What Identify: What is problem? What is not problem? What difference between is and is not? What is possible cause? Where Locate: Where is problem found? Where is problem not found? What difference in locations? What cause? When Timing: When does problem occur? When does problem not occur? What difference in timing? What cause? When was it first

  • bserved?

When was it last

  • bserved?

What difference between 1st, last? What cause? Extent Magnitude: How far does problem extend? How localized is problem? What is the distinction? What cause? How many units are affected? How many not affected? What is the distinction? What cause? How much of any

  • ne unit is

affected? How much of any

  • ne unit is not

affected? What is the distinction? What cause?

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K.T. Problem Analysis

For more details on Kepner-Tregoe problem analysis technique refer to: https://iancos.wordpress.com/2013/01/14/kepner-tregoe-problem-analysis/

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On a new model of airplane, flight attendants develop rash on arms, hands, face (only those places). Only occurs on flights over water. Usually disappears after 24 hours. No problems on old planes over those routes. Does not affect all attendants on these flights, but same number of attendants get it on each flight. Those who get rash have no

  • ther ill effects. No measurable chemicals, etc., in cabin air.

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K.T. PA Example

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IS IS NOT DISTINCTION WHAT: Rash Other illness External contact WHEN: New planes used Old planes used Different materials WHERE: Flights over water Flights over land Different crew procedures EXTENT: Face, hands, arms Other parts Something contacting face, hands and arms Only some attendants All attendants Crew duties

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K.T. PA Example

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Four strategies or procedures were discussed for defining the problem.

Which you actually use depends on the problem and your own style.

  • 1. Problem Definition steps
  • 2. Socratic Questioning
  • 3. Dunker Diagrams
  • 4. Statement/Restatement
  • 5. Kepner-Tregoe (K.T.) Problem Analysis

You should consciously develop some process that addresses the major steps, which you use out of habit, to make sure that you do not end up solving the wrong problem.

Be proactive: think through whether the problem statement is correct before solving any problem.

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Picking a Technique