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expectations from AIM: Research topics and future collaboration - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate studies in India & expectations from AIM: Research topics and future collaboration P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented at 15th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, February 20-22, 2010 Indian

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Climate studies in India & expectations from AIM:

Research topics and future collaboration

P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India

Presented at 15th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, February 20-22, 2010

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Agenda

1.

New Scenarios Development

2.

Component Models (& Integration)

3.

Model Applications

4.

Policy Assessment

5.

Research Cooperation

6.

Dissemination

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

New Scenarios Development

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Alternate Development Perspectives

Carbon Market Technologies Energy Resources

Universal Participation Market Structure/ Rules Allocation of Rights Modify Preferences Competition/ Trade Energy-Mix Mandates Tech Transfer Cooperative R&D Remove Market Barriers

Target Interventions Drivers Aim Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilization

Carbon Market Technologies Energy Resources

Universal Participation Market Structure/ Rules Allocation of Rights Modify Preferences Competition/ Trade Energy-Mix Mandates Tech Transfer Cooperative R&D Remove Market Barriers

Target Interventions Drivers Aim Forecasting

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilization

Conventional Climate Centric Paradigm Sustainable Development and Climate Paradigm

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets

Targets Interventions Drivers Aim Back-casting

Technological Social/Institutional Management Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Aligning Markets Modify Preferences Avoid Lock -ins Long -term Vision

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • Focus on:

– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans/policies/processes – Behavioral Changes, Innovations, Co-benefits and Co-operation – Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins

  • Sustaining Capital Stocks

– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social

  • Use Systems Approach for Analysis

– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment

  • Interventions to influence Drivers of Change

– Assess and influence Processes – Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)

  • Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences

– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices

LCS Scenarios with Sustainability

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

Stabilization Scenarios with Global Targets Baseline Paradigm Stabilization Targets Scenarios Geography Level

2.6 8.0 6.0 Radiative Forcing Target W/m2

Global Regional National

4.5 2.6 6.0 5.0 4.5

Global Global Regional National Global Local Local

Conventional Sustainability

Δt 4 to 6

OC

Δt 3 to 5

OC

Δt 3

OC

Δt 2

OC
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

(1) Setting Framework (3) Quantification of socio- economic assumptions (4) Collection of low carbon measures (2) Description of socio- economic assumptions (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year (7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations

Local Scenario Development (ExSS )

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • 1. IPCC New Scenarios Process
  • 2. Asia Modeling Forum
  • 3. LCS Asia Project
  • 4. Indian National Scenario Exercises
  • 5. City Level Scenarios
  • 6. Sector Scenarios
  • 7. Scenario Database

Scenarios: Research Cooperation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Component Models (& Integration)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Integrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES

  • Socio
  • Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai

nts

AIM CGE Model ANSWER

  • MARKAL

Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model End Use Demand Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB)

Integrated Modelling Framework

DATABASES

AIM SNAPSHOT Model End Use Demand Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB)

DATABASES Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE ANSWER-MARKAL Model AIM ExSS

AIM End Use Demand Model AIM (SDB)

(Strategic Database)

Integrated Modeling Framework

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Production sector Final demand sector Production factor market Produced goods market

Endowment Intermediate demand Final demand Output Value added

Environment

Pollution, pressure, preservation Input from environment Feedback from environment Input from environment Feedback from environment Pollution, pressure, preservation

AIM CGE Model

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Extended Snapshot Tool

Macro-economy and Industry Module Labor Module Population and Household Number Module Time-use and Consumption Module Transport Module Commercial Building Module Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module

GHG emissions

Labor demand Wage Number of workers Average working time Population Private consumption Number of household Output Passenger and freight transport demand Floor area of commercial buildings Energy demand Income

  • Export
  • Import ratio
  • Commuting OD
  • Labor participation ratio
  • Demographic composition
  • Average number of family
  • ccupants
  • Breakdown of

consumption

  • Floor area per
  • utput
  • Population distribution
  • Trip per parson
  • Transport distance
  • Modal share
  • Energy service demand generation unit
  • Energy efficiency
  • Fuel share
  • Emission factor
  • Government expenditure
  • Labor productivity

Exogenous variables and parameters Main endogenous variables Module Input Flow of endogenous variables

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • 1. Global Integrated Assessment Model
  • 2. Regional Integrated Assessment Model
  • 3. Local Mitigation Models
  • 4. Sector Mitigation Models
  • 5. Impact & Adaptation Data & Models
  • 6. Climate Data Monitoring & Modeling

Models Development & Training

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Model Applications:

  • Geography
  • Global, Regional, National, Local (City)
  • Sector
  • Transport, Power, Industries, Residential,

Agriculture

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mtoe

Base Case Scenario: INDIA

Oil Gas Coal

Nuclear

Renewable Unconventional oil BaU

INDIA: Carbon Emissions GDP Loss for India

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

%

450 ppmv (2 deg C) 550 ppmv (3 deg C)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

National Analysis: Bottom-up

From 2005-2050: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth: 0.9% Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005 Economy 23 times Population 1.56 times

500 1 ,000 1 ,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2005 201 201 5 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mtoe

Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass

Energy

Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population

Carbon Emissions

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Ton CO2

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Mitigation Options Assessment

Conventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price

  • High Carbon Price
  • Climate Focused Technology Push
  • Top-down/Supply-side actions

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions

  • Low Carbon Price
  • Bottom-up/Demand-side actions
  • Behavioural change
  • Diverse Technology portfolio

Technology Co-operation Areas

  • Energy Efficiency
  • Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro
  • Nuclear/CCS

Technology Co-operation Areas

  • Transport Infrastructure Technologies
  • 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy
  • Process Technologies
  • Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million Ton CO2 Other CCS Device Efficiency Nuclear Renewable Fossil Switch Emissions (for 2

O Target)

Baseline Emissions

Carbon Price ($)

20 87 136 200 52 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million Ton CO2

CCS Transport Reduced Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Device Efficiency Renewable Energy Building Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2

O Target)

Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 117 28

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Policy Assessment, Research Cooperation & Dissemination

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

8 National Missions:

  • 1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)
  • 2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)
  • 3. Sustainable habitat
  • 4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)
  • 5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system
  • 6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)
  • 7. Sustainable agriculture
  • 8. Strategic knowledge for climate change

INDIA: National Climate Change Action Plan

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AMC (Old boundary ) AMC (New boundary )

Ahmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil

10.2 61.1 20.4

8.6

15.4 6.3 2.4 4.3 3.7

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS GHG Emissions/reductions (mt- C02)

Transport Efficiency Industry Efficiency Building Efficiency Fuel Switch Energy Service demand Coal + CCS Emissions

Mitigation Contributions

67%

Passenger Transport Sector

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Index 2005 = 1

Passenger Demand Energy Demand GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS Mt CO2

Freight Transport Passenger Transport Industry Commercial Residential

Sustainable Low Carbon Cities: Ahmedabad

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sustainable Low Carbon Transport

  • Sustainable modal shift
  • Efficient logistics
  • Infrastructures investments
  • Associated development

Technologies for Train Corridors

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Renewable Energy Scenarios

Additional Renewable Capacity in Low Carbon Scenario over the Base Case

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2020 2030 2040 2050

Increase over Base Case (Mtoe)

Hydro Solar Wind Bio-energy

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • Low carbon Infrastructure Development & Investments
  • Freight Corridors ( Delhi Mumbai – JBIC)
  • Inter City Movements ( Delhi Metro – JBIC)
  • Eco Towns ( Dahej - JICA)
  • Water Energy Climate Change Nexus
  • Scenario development at local level
  • Extension of Ahmedabad LCS Analysis to other cities in India
  • Sectoral Focus

–Energy (Renewable, Clean Power, Nuclear) –Intra City Transport ( Metro, BRTS) –Intra City Transport ( Freight Corridors, Bullet Trains) –Urban architecture ( City planning, use of Information Technology)

Key Policy Assessment Areas

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Research Cooperation & Dissemination Thank you

  • 1. IPCC New Scenario & AR5
  • 2. Low Carbon Asia Project
  • 3. LCS-RNet
  • 4. Asia Modeling Forum Exercises
  • 5. Coordinated Publications
  • 6. Dissemination Strategy (Web, Print, Events)