ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 25, 2023 132 likes •449 views

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC April 20, 2015 Energy Research Institute National

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国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

CHINA 2050 HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO AND RODAMAP STUDY

CHINA NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CENTER ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF NDRC April 20, 2015

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Partnership

Core Working Group: Technical Support:

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High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario Economic Dreams Ecological Dreams 生态文明是人类文明的重要标志 To get rid of fossil fuels is our global development trend. Ecological civilization is the moral high ground of human development.

THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS the KEY FACTOR for OUR “BEAUTIFUL CHINA”

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THE ACHIEVEMENT of “CHINA 2050 HIGH RE PENETRATION SCENARIO” IS VISION AND CONSENSUS OF THE WHOLE SOCIETY

Energy Strategy —Low Carbon and Green Electricity for Future Social Economic —Middle Level of Developed Country Ecological Environment —Blue Air and Green Water

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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

GDP：4b CNY

GDP：28.2b CNY，7 times the GDP in 2010

2010 2013

2020 2030

2050

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ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT

CO2 Emissions (b tons) 6.7 7.25 3.02 2010 2011 2050

2010 1990

3.99t 4.44t

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

SO2 NOx PM10 PM2.5 Atmo Hg China USA EU

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2050

The emission trends of various main air pollutants

SO2 10k tons NOx smoke and dust 10k tons

Below the level of emissions in 1980

Pollutant Emissions

3b tons of annual CO2 emissions, 2.17 tons of emissions per capita

CO2 Emissions

The level of global average emissions 1.4b tons in 2050, 3.2b tons in 2010

Power sector emissions

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MAIN CALCULATED RESULTS for HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION in 2050

The rate of electrification to be higher than 60% in end-use energy consumption The proportion of non-fossil energy generation to be higher than 91% 3.4billion tce of primary energy supply , and 3.2billion tce of end-use energy consumption

3X 22% 62% 2010 2050

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Twh

2400GW of wind capacity , 2600GW of solar power capacity , and 9660TWh of total annual power generation

2010 2050 2.7b 3.4b

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HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION SCENARIO: PARTHWAY

TEN CONLUS LUSIONS IONS OR R TEN THINKS KS？

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Coal

Oil Nature Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Biomass Bio fuel Solar Power SWH & Geothermal RE Share

Primary Energy Supply(billion tce, thermal equivalent ）

BY 2050, RENEWABLE ENERGY COULD MEET MORE THAN 60% OF PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL PROMOTE FOSSIL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND CARBON EMISSIONS TO PEAK BY 2025

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Units: million tce

7.8 8.5 9.2 9.2 8.2 6.5 5.3 4.1 3.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Reference High penetration

Units : billion tons

Metal smelting Services Residents Transport Argriculture Electricity Chemical Manufacturing Coke

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RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY

22% 23% 29% 41% 53% 67% 78% 84% 86%

28% 34% 46% 57% 71% 82% 88% 91%

TWh

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share

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WIND POWER AND SOLAR POWER WILL BECOME IMPORTANT PILLARS OF THE FUTURE POWER SUPPLY

Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

20112013201520172019202120232025202720292031203320352037203920412043204520472049

Wind

PV&CSP

2020,307GW 2020,174GW 2040, 2204GW 2040, 2056GW

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HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION

26% 33% 37% 41% 47% 51% 54% 59% 62% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal Oil products Nature Gas Electricity consumption Bio fuel SWH Geo thermal Electrification share

Units: billion tce

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TRANSFORM THE ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION NETWORK TO A PLARTFORM FOR OPTIMIZING RESCOURES ALLOCATION

Inter-provincial Transmission Capacity Demand in High Penetration Scenario（GW）

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国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所

Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

TECHNOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION IS THE FOUNDATION BUILA A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM

RE

Thermal power Hydro power Wind power PV

Power System Flexibility

Wireless charging 储能电站 Forecast Flexible generation Driverless EV EV Driverless EV Charging Station Mobile Station

  • Bidding at power market
  • Coordinate EVs with

smart vehicle network, driverless cars and wireless charging technology

  • Business model:

charging and discharging services, and shared EV services

  • Recycle Battery，

provide energy storage service to Grid

Integration Operator

Demand Response Ancillary Services Power Generation Regulation Output Regulation

Smart metering Virtual data center

Power Market

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BUILDING A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION POWER SYSTEM AT A SMALL OR NON-INCREMENTAL COST

kWh Cost Development Trend in High Penetration Scenario

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transmission Cost 0.180 0.182 0.183 0.185 0.190 0.199 0.213 0.230 0.250 Start-up costs 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005 Fuel Cost 0.276 0.259 0.262 0.233 0.186 0.143 0.111 0.094 0.080 Variable O&M 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 Fixed O&M 0.023 0.028 0.029 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.050 0.053 0.054 Capital Cost 0.244 0.212 0.196 0.212 0.240 0.266 0.285 0.285 0.287 0.746 0.701 0.689 0.683 0.672 0.666 0.674 0.678 0.685 0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800

Yuan/KWh

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AS A NEW ECONOMIC GROWTH POINT, RE CAN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE DEVELOPMENT QUALITY OF OVERALL ECONOMY

Contribution of RE and related industries to GDP

2.5% 1.6% 2.9% 0.9% 6.2%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 2010 2020 2030 2050

Growth of Employment in RE and related industries （unit: 10000）

Wind Solar EV Other RE 125 65 46 15 13

481 377 81 36 250

100 200 300 400 500 600

Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Others

2015 2050

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Energy Sector Employment in 2010 （unit: 1000）

Coal Oil Gas Electricity RE Nuclear R&D

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HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION WILL HELP BRING BACK CLEAR WATER AND BLUE SKIES

2050 China's SO2 and NOX Emission in High Penetration Scenario

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China USA EU China Share of Global

Units: billion tons

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario

Units: million tons

2050 China's CO2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario

Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data And data of other countries is trend prediction Data from IEA ETP 2014

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2050 HIGH PENETRATION SCENARIO: PATHWAY

Largest Challenge: Variability of Renewables！

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Achieve Higher-level Dynamic Stability Through Changes: Internet +

Intelligence Comm Internet Energy Internet Internet of Things Flexibility

Supply Side

Changes

Demand Side

Also Changes Stability？ Reliability ？

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System with High RE Penetration Will Be a Reliable Power System

Variable demand Variable generation Smart Control and real- time price

Demand side flexibility

Flexible generation units

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Contribution of EV’s Flexibility to the Power System

Vehicle Technology Charging Mode Operation Features

EV Charging and Discharging Load

EV Plug-in Fuel Battery Low Voltage AC DC

Changeable Battery Frequency of Charging

Miles Time Wireless Charging Types and Numbers Passenger V

Bus/Business/Delivery

Trucks

Daily miles Integration

Charging Load Curves

Charging control and Storage

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New Business model of EV Will Change the Concept of Power Dispatch

退役电池 回收

EV Integration Operator

Mobile Stations Fixed Stations 流动站点 Wireless Charging

EV Business Model and Integrated Operation of Power System

Wireless Charging

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Energy Storage of EV Case Study for 2030 in Beijing

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880GW Flexible Coal Will Provide Support for Stable and Reliable Operation of the Power System in 2050

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Hourly Dispatch on a Typical Day in High Penetration Scenario

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024

NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW MUNI_WASTE HEAT WAVE FUELOIL PUMPED_HYDRO

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ACTION PLAN FOR HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION

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BUILDING HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY PENETRATION FUTURE WILL BRING “NON- ZERO-SUM”RESULTS

  • Market Oriented
  • Economically Viable
  • Consider both long term and near term
  • Soft and Hard Supports
  • Benefit the Whole Society
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KEY ELEMENTS of THE ACTION PLANS

2020 2015 2030 2040 2050

Technology Revolution Extract potential of grid, strengthen infrastructure of provincial distribution network, especially 500KV interconnection lines for large wind and solar bases EV Industrialized，EV become pillar of vehicle industry or even

  • f the national economy by 2025

Enter the era of Energy Internet by 2025: efficiently integrate EV, smart network, and Demand Response; annual installation of wind and solar power each hit 100GW ，Power Sector Reform ongoing in parallel with 13th FYP implementation; Building a competitive power market in China within 10 years Reform of State Owned Enterprises： Improve Market Mechanism and break monopoly Energy transformation of Germany（Learn and Cooperate）、Denmark concepts to phase

  • ut fossil energy

Global energy governance is a trend，and conformed with Pareto Standard. Only cooperation will lead to win-win! Technology Innovation: Significantly increase electrification rate in end-use consumptions, flexible coal（target: 1000 hours）, modernized manufacture and 3-Networks Integration Institutional Reform International Cooperation

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Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps are moving towards the end of own chosen target.

──Milan Kundera