Employment, Workforce, and Degree Production Goals Presented to: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Employment, Workforce, and Degree Production Goals

Presented to: Higher Education Coordinating Commission November 2014

Goa

• al for
• r t

tod

• day: Present data and analysis to

further HECC’s goal-setting efforts for Oregon’s postsecondary institutions.

Overview

• Supply: Moving towards 40-40-20
• Demand: Employer need for educated workers
• Supply & Demand: Linking education to employer needs
• Conclusions and recommendations
• Data and analysis:

– Supply: ECONorthwest analysis of IPEDS and ACS data – Demand: ECONorthwest analysis of OED occupational projections – Conclusions and recommendations: ECONorthwest

Supply: Moving t towar ards s 40-40-20

The “gap” in 2012

9% 10% 43% 42% 20% 17% 17% 40% 31% 31% 40% Adults 35-64 Adults 25-34 Goal (2025) Less than HS High school completer Associate's or certificate Bachelor's or better

• Young adults (25-34):

– 124,000 Associate’s/certs. – 49,000 Bachelor’s or better

• Older adults (35-64):

– 356,000 Associate’s/certs. – 140,000 Bachelor’s or better

• Total:

– 480,000 Associate’s/certs. – 189,000 Bachelor’s or better

Closing the gap

• Degree production in Oregon
• Net migration
• Demographics

Degree production in Oregon (2012)

3,382 10,634 15,136 6,537 2,055 1,110 4,404 3,531 5,437 11,744 19,540 10,068 Certificates Associate's Bachelor's Advanced Public Private

Production and net migration adults 25-64 (2012)

5,437 11,744 19,540 10,068 1,719 1,826 3,174 4,005 Certificates Associate's Bachelor's Advanced Production Net migration

Demographics: Attainment of adults who turned 65 (2012)

Largely for context:

• Retirement age

increasing

• Labor force

participation varies by attainment

• Attainment overall

similar to that for younger workers

• Limited data on

certificates.

8,694 8,504 3,066 14,730 Advanced Bachelor's Associate's Some college

40-40-20 for young adults

• ~50,000 individuals in

each age cohort

• Eventual need per cohort:

– ~20,000 Associate’s or certificates – ~20,000 BAs

• 2012 degree production
• verall is close to these

targets

17,181 19,540 Associates+ certificates Bachelor's

Dema Demand: Employer need for educated wo work rkers

Projected need for employees 2012-2017

708,382 762,151 326,097 354,898 173,208 184,308 302,396 325,244 173,237 184,785 1,683,320 1,811,386 2012 Employment 2017 Projected employment High school, less than HS,

• r unclassified

Post-secondary training Associate's degree Bachelor's Advanced

Supply & Deman and: Linking education to emp employer er need eeds

Will t there b be e enough gh job

• bs?

s?

• Adjusted five-year

production as a share

• f projected need:

– Certificates: 40% – Associates: 173% – Bachelor’s: 94% – Advanced: 171%

• However…

24,738 46,389 47,360 50,340 61,122 26,794 50,352 29,491 Certificate Associate's Bachelor's Advanced Adjusted production projection 2012-2017 Projected openings by education level

Some important considerations

• Supply:

– Degree production – Migration – Demographics – Labor force participation

• Demand:

– Changing economy – Changing job requirements – Trends in retirement

OED Occupational prioritization model

• Incorporates information about:

– Wages – Anticipated immigration – Existing training pipeline – Perceived shortages in occupational supply

• Designed to inform postsecondary

institutions and workforce boards target training resources

Occupati ations requiring p posts tsecon

• ndary t

y training or higher w with th th the mos

• st p

proj

• jected op
• penings

Rank in total

• penings

Occupation Total openings 2012-2017 Competitive education level 1 Office Clerks, General 5,188 Post-secondary training 2 Registered Nurses 4,787 Bachelor's 3 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 3,533 Post-secondary training 4 General and Operations Managers 3,470 Bachelor's 5 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 3,346 Associate's 6 Secretaries and Administrative Assistant 3,015 Associate's 7 Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Reps. Except Tech./Scientific 2,866 Associate's 8 Supervisors and Managers of Office and Admin. Support Workers 2,785 Associate's 9 Supervisors and Managers of Retail Sales 2,677 Post-secondary training 10 Accountants and Auditors 2,662 Bachelor's 11 Teacher Assistants 2,563 Associate's 12 Postsecondary Teachers, Except Graduate Teaching Assistants 2,556 Advanced 13 Medical Secretaries 2,549 Post-secondary training 14 Nursing Assistants 2,393 Post-secondary training 15 Supervisors and Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 2,364 Post-secondary training 16 Bartenders 2,338 Post-secondary training 17 Carpenters 2,303 Post-secondary training 18 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 1,949 Advanced 19 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1,914 Post-secondary training 20 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special Ed./Tecnical Ed. 1,848 Advanced 21 Home Health Aides 1,825 Post-secondary training 22 Physicians and Surgeons 1,794 Advanced 23 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 1,747 Bachelor's 24 Medical Assistants 1,675 Post-secondary training 25 Computer User Support Specialists 1,459 Bachelor's

High igh-pri riorit ity a and nd high high-wage/hi high gh-dema mand d

• ccupati

ation

• ns b

s by projected openings

OED Prority Rank Occupation Total openings 2012- 2017 Competitive education level 16 General and Operations Managers 3,470 Bachelor's 11 Accountants and Auditors 2,662 Bachelor's 5 Carpenters 2,303 Post-secondary training 16 Physicians and Surgeons 1,794 Advanced 4 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 1,118 Post-secondary training 16 Computer Systems Analysts 973 Bachelor's 16 Cost Estimators 879 Bachelor's 16 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 802 Post-secondary training 16 Computer Occupations, All Other 800 Bachelor's 10 Machinists 751 Post-secondary training 5 Sales Managers 715 Bachelor's 16 Pharmacists 704 Advanced 3 Medical and Health Services Managers 661 Advanced 5 Industrial Engineers 656 Advanced 16 Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators 642 Post-secondary training 5 Computer Hardware Engineers 621 Advanced 5 Marketing Managers 604 Bachelor's 11 Construction Managers 600 Bachelor's 1 Physical Therapists 591 Advanced 16 Firefighters 585 Associate's 16 Librarians 317 Advanced 2 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 297 Bachelor's 11 Veterinarians 272 Advanced 11 Urban and Regional Planners 268 Advanced 11 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 265 Associate's

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions

• Oregon institutions produce Bachelor’s

degrees at levels roughly consistent with anticipated workforce need and 40-40-20 for younger adults. Production of other completion types appear less aligned.

• These data suggest the value of a targeted

approach to goal-setting, particularly for older adults to ensure that increased attainment is associated with labor market success.

Recommendations

• For older adults, consider targeting “low-

hanging fruit” (e.g., adults with some college and no degree)

• Consider output targets related to specific
• ccupations in collaboration with OED to

leverage existing data and expertise.

• Continue state investments in unit-level

longitudinal data systems to improve knowledge about program value