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CSU E ve ritt Re al E state Ce nte r Marke t Watc h March 29, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CSU E ve ritt Re al E state Ce nte r Marke t Watc h March 29, 2017 d e live rs b usine ss www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m Me trostudy Offic e Conta c ts Joe Hemmelgarn John Covert Todd Tyrrell Tom Hayden Bridget

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www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m

March 29, 2017

CSU E ve ritt Re al E state Ce nte r Marke t Watc h

d e live rs b usine ss

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www.me tro study.c o m | www.builde ro nline .c o m

Me trostudy Offic e Conta c ts

John Covert

  • Sr. Regional Director

jcovert@metrostudy.com 303-229-9160

2

Todd Tyrrell

  • Dir. Bus. Development

ttyrrell@metrostudy.com 303-885-5806 Tom Hayden Director of Consulting thayden@metrostudy.com 720-883-7475 Joe Hemmelgarn Senior Consultant jhemmelgarn@metrostudy.com 720-493-2020 Bridget Berry Consultant bberry@metrostudy.com 720-493-2020

Alex Ray Analyst aray@metrostudy.com 720-493-2020 Rob Bookhout

  • Sr. Market Analyst

rbookhout@metrostudy.com 720-493-2020 Keely Maher Research Manager kmaher@metrostudy.com 720-493-2020

Office in the Denver HBA Building: 9033 E. Easter Place, Suite 116 Centennial, CO 80112 (720) 493-2020 www.metrostudy.com

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T HE ME T ROST UDY DI F F E RE NCE |

L OCAL MARKE T F OCUS | NAT IONAL COVE RAGE

  • # 1 re side ntia l da ta pro vide r
  • L

a rg e st US g e o g ra phic fo o tprint a va ila b le – 890 CBSAs | 2,483 Co untie s

  • Me tro study surve y ma rke ts

– T

  • p 25 c o nstruc tio n CBSAs

– 40,000 a c tive sub divisio ns – 20,000 future sub divisio ns – 3.2 millio n la nd & lo ts – 76% o f US ne w ho me c o nstruc tio n – E xc lusive c o nsume r de mo g ra phic s insig hts

  • 25 re g io na l o ffic e s; 400 surve yo rs

WE DRIVE 200,000 MILES EVERY 90 DAYS TO THE MOON AND BACK EVERY 6 MONTHS.

PAGE 3

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Ma rke t Informa tion | Compre he nsive , Ac c ura te Sourc e s

PROPRIE T ARY DAT A

COMPL E T E MARK E T I NT E L L I GE NCE

INT E GRAT E D VIE W

ACT IVE SUBDIVISION ACT IVIT Y

Visua l inspe c tio n F ro m g ro und b re a k to c lo se Ac c ura te tre nding

PUBL IC RE CORD DAT A

Ac tua l de ma nd Cle a nse d & ma tc he d to Sub divisio ns

F UT URE DE VE L OPME NT T RACKING

Critic a l pipe line inte l

SAL E S & T RAF F IC RE PORT ING

L e a ding e dg e L e a st re lia b le

ONT ARGE T CONSUME R SE GME NT AT ION

K no w yo ur c usto me r

DE MOGRAPHICS

Po pula tio ns Ma rke t tre nds

E CONOMIC DAT A

Pla nning Ma rke t e ntry

PE RMIT S

Ba ro me te r o f future a c tivity E NHANCE D PUBL IC DAT A

T rue De ma nd

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Ma rke t Informa tion | T he Me thod Ma tte rs

FUTURES VACANT DEVELOPED LOT UNDER CONSTRUCTION FINISHED VACANT OCCUPIED

  • Unde rsta nd future ma rke t

supply

  • K

no w future c o mpe titio n

  • I

de ntify o ppo rtunitie s

  • Curre nt lo t inve nto ry & ve lo c ity
  • 12 mo nth b uild ho rizo n
  • Re ma ining life o f c o mpe titive

pro je c ts

  • L
  • t pro spe c ting
  • T

rue supply o f ne w ho me s

  • T

ra c k b uild time s, g a ug e c o mpe tito r e ffic ie nc y

  • Unde r/ o ve r supply indic a to r

(w/ finishe d va c a nt)

  • “Ca na ry in c o a l mine ”
  • E

a rly indic a to r o f o ve rsupply ma rke t

  • Pre dic t pric e c o nc e ssio ns
  • Sig na ls whe n to pla n ma rke t e xit
  • I

nve sto r a c tivity insig ht

  • T

rue st, e a rly g a ug e o f de ma nd & po pula tio n g ro wth

  • Co mmunity he a lth

ONL Y visua l inspe c tion provide s the se c ritic a l insig hts

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Ma rke t Informa tion | T he Me thod Ma tte rs

FUTURES VACANT DEVELOPED LOT UNDER CONSTRUCTION FINISHED VACANT OCCUPIED

  • Pipe line o f

future a c tivity

  • Unde rsta nd

future ma rke t supply

  • K

no w future c o mpe titio n

  • I

de ntify

  • ppo rtunitie s
  • Sta rte d

inve nto ry b e ing c a rrie d o n b o o ks

  • T

rue supply o f ne w ho me s

  • T

ra c k b uild time s, g a ug e c o mpe tito r e ffic ie nc y

  • Unde r/ o ve r

supply indic a to r (w/ finishe d va c a nt)

  • E

vide nc e o f c lo sing in a dva nc e o f re c o rde d c lo se

  • T

rue st, e a rly g a ug e o f de ma nd & po pula tio n g ro wth

  • Co mmunity

he a lth

Know Use

  • Physic a l lo t

inve nto ry

  • Curre nt lo t

inve nto ry & ve lo c ity

  • 12 mo nth b uild

ho rizo n

  • Re ma ining life
  • f c o mpe titive

pro je c ts

  • L
  • t pro spe c ting
  • Co mple te d b ut

no t o c c upie d

  • “Ca na ry in c o a l

mine ”

  • E

a rly indic a to r

  • f o ve rsupply

ma rke t

  • Pre dic t pric e

c o nc e ssio ns

  • Sig na ls whe n to

pla n ma rke t e xit

  • I

nve sto r a c tivity insig ht

ONL Y visua l inspe c tion provide s the se c ritic a l insig hts

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T

  • Sta rt Us Off…
  • Sta rts in 2016 we re up 12% a nd c lo sing s we re up 17%. But 4Q sta rts

a c tua lly de c line d fro m a ye a r a g o …

  • Sta rte d o ve r 4,400 ho me s in 2016 fo r the first time sinc e 2006.
  • Va c a nt de ve lo pe d lo ts (VDL

), inc re a se d 13% fro m 3Q, b ut is a t the sa me le ve l a s 2015 a nd supply dro ppe d to 15.6 mo nths, b e lo w e q uilib rium.

  • We ld Co unty is g ro wing a t a muc h fa ste r ra te tha n L

a rime r Co unty due to lo t a va ila b ility, a ffo rda b ility a nd dive rse sub ma rke ts

  • Windso r is e me rg ing a s the to p sub ma rke t in No rthe rn Co lo ra do
  • Mo st o f the sa me c ha lle ng e s we sa w in 2016 re ma in in 2017 a nd will

like ly b e mo re inte nsifie d…

7

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Northe rn CO Job Growth

Ma rke t E xpe rie nc e d Ye a r-Ove r-Ye a r I nc re a se o f +7,500 jo b s = 2.9% Gro wth Ra te

Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment

175 200 225 250 275

  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Labor Force (1,000s) Annual Formations (1,000s)

Larimer MSA Formations Weld MSA Formations Labor Force

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Northe rn Colora do

E mplo yme nt Size b y Se c to r

Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

% of Total Employed

Larimer % of Total Employment Weld % of Total Employment

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Northe rn Colora do

Une mplo yme nt Ra te - Ja nua ry

Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment

2 4 6 8 10 12

Unemployment Rate

  • Ft. Collins Unemployment rate

Greeley Unemployment rate

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New Home Activity Metrostudy 4Q16 Survey

d e live rs b usine ss

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Colora do F ront Ra ng e Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts b y Co unty

Source: Metrostudy

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Annual Starts

4Q15 4Q16

+22% +16% +38% +6% +34% +5% +20% +20% +4% +46%

  • 47%
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Colora do F ront Ra ng e Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts b y Co unty 2005-2016 Ma rke t Sha re T re nd

Source: Metrostudy

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%

% Market Share

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Pub lic Builde r Ma rke t Sha re

Source: Metrostudy

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

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Northe rn Colora do Ma rke t Sta rts & Closing s All Ho using T ype s (SF D, T H, Co ndo )

Source: Metrostudy

954 starts in 4q16

  • 2% decrease v. 4q15 (968)

Annual Starts for 4q16 were 4,441 units +12% increase v. 4q15 annual starts (3,973) 1,074 Closings in 4q16 +18% increase v. 4q15 (911) Annual Closings for 4q16 were 4,149 units +17% increase v. 4q15 annual closings (3,539)

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts T re nd (All Pro duc t)

Source: Metrostudy

4,441 4,149

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 Annual Starts Annual Closings

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Ne w Ho me Sta rts b y Qua rte r (All Pro duc t)

Source: Metrostudy

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16

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Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subdivisions

Ra nke d b y Annua l Sta rts 1-10 (All Ho using T ype s)

Source: Metrostudy

Project Submarket Low High Annual Starts Annual Closings Qtr Starts # of Bldrs Total Housing INV INV Mos VDL VDL MOS

1

Village East

Windsor

$288

  • $321

191 181 1 10 0.7 0.0

2

Colliers Hill

Erie-Frederick

$383

  • $550

157 130 47 2 101 9.3 74 5.7

3

Erie Highlands

Erie-Frederick

$343

  • $559

135 109 33 1 70 7.7 49 4.4

4

Homestead Heights @ Eagle Ridge

Greeley

$260

  • $535

122 116 27 2 48 5.0 22 2.2

5

Bella Vista

East Weld

$265

  • $340

112 107 26 1 44 4.9 102 10.9

6

Jacoby Farm

Windsor

$273

  • $361

100 67 38 1 52 9.3 25 3.0

7

Winter Farm

Windsor

$350

  • $470

95 39 26 2 56 17.2 146 18.4

8

Meadows

Wellingt on

$170

  • $331

88 86 17 3 37 5.2 10 1.4

9

Neighbors Point

Erie-Frederick

$325

  • $482

84 82 1 1 35 5.1 2 0.3

10 Water Valley South

Windsor

$300

  • $1,500

81 104 11 3 53 6.1 107 15.9

1,165 1,021 226 506 5.9 537 5.5 26.2% 24.6% 23.7% 19.7%

  • 8.1%
  • 4,441

4,149 954 2,570 7.4 6,662 18.0 Top 10 Totals % of the Market Market Totals

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Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subdivisions

Ra nke d b y Annua l Sta rts 11-20 (All Ho using T ype s)

Source: Metrostudy

Project Submarket Low High Annual Starts Annual Closings Qtr Starts # of Bldrs Total Housing INV INV Mos VDL VDL MOS

11 Centennial Crossing/Settlers

Johnst ow n-Mill

$230

  • $300

75 68 21 2 40 7.1 79 12.6

12 Dove Hill

  • S. Cent ral Weld

$222

  • $271

75 31 29 1 47 18.2 0.0

13 Wyndham Hill

Erie-Frederick

$340

  • $410

71 61 31 2 37 7.3 29 4.9

14 Wellington South Estates

Wellingt on

$177

  • $328

68 70 1 1 21 3.6 0.0

15 Wellington Pointe (TH)

Wellingt on

$235

  • $245

67 27 1 40 17.8 0.0

16 Sweetgrass

Erie-Frederick

$327

  • $402

65 58 16 1 25 5.2 41 7.6

17 WV South/Pelican Farms

Windsor

$330

  • $469

61 1 45 1 60 0.0 189 37.2

18 Buckinghorse

Ft . Collins

$410

  • $611

59 52 17 2 53 12.2 40 8.1

19 Heritage Road

Bert houd

$350

  • $450

59 21 29 2 38 21.7 40 8.1

20 Centerra Lakes

Loveland

$366

  • $540

58 61 17 3 39 7.7 47 9.7

1,823 1,471 432 906 7.4 1,002 6.6 41.0% 35.5% 45.3% 35.3%

  • 15.0%
  • 4,441

4,149 954 2,570 7.4 6,662 18.0 Top 20 Totals % of the Market Market Totals

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Source: Metrostudy 20

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Annua l Sta rts – Sing le F a mily De ta c he d

Source: Metrostudy

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Parker West Adams Aurora South Arvada Erie-Frederick Castle Rock NE Denver Windsor Central Adams Loveland Fort Collins Greeley

  • N. Broomfield

Longmont

  • S. Central Weld

SE Boulder Johnstown-Milliken Aurora Central Wellington Lakewood

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Annua l Sta rts – Sing le F a mily De ta c he d Annua l % Cha ng e

Source: Metrostudy

  • 40%
  • 15%

10% 35% 60% 85% 110% 135% 160% 185% 210% 235%

  • S. Central Weld

Windsor

  • N. Broomfield

West Adams Arvada Longmont Parker Central Adams Johnstown-Milliken Aurora South Wellington NE Denver Castle Rock Erie-Frederick Aurora Central Loveland Lakewood Fort Collins SE Boulder Greeley

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Annua l Sta rts b y Pric e Ra ng e

Source: Metrostudy Note: Single Family Detached

4% 10% 18% 23% 21% 14% 4% 6% 1% 3% 21% 22% 23% 18% 6% 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% < $199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$499 $500-$599 $600 +

% Share Annual Starts

4Q15 Ann. Starts 4Q16 Ann. Starts

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1% 5% 28% 24% 22% 14% 5% 2% 0% 1% 9% 20% 25% 25% 8% 12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% < $199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$499 $500-$599 $600 +

% Share Annual Starts

Weld Larimer

Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Whe re Do E ntry-L e ve l & F irst-T ime Ho me Buye rs Go ?

Source: Metrostudy Note: Single Family Detached

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Ave ra g e Annua l Ne w Ho me Pric e 4Q16

Source: Metrostudy

$669,776 $582,940 $564,888 $556,549 $530,561 $503,165 $502,406 $490,753 $486,997 $479,903 $479,703 $427,607 $424,017 $420,582 $375,350 $359,566 $319,220 $314,429 $312,114 $298,153

$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000

Lakewood SE Boulder

  • N. Broomfield

Arvada Parker Longmont Aurora South Fort Collins West Adams NE Denver Castle Rock Loveland Erie-Frederick Aurora Central Central Adams Windsor Wellington Johnstown-Milliken Greeley

  • S. Central Weld
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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Ne w Ho me Pric e Annua l % Cha ng e 4Q15 v 4Q16

Source: Metrostudy

  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Wellington Fort Collins Greeley SE Boulder Central Adams Erie-Frederick Parker

  • S. Central Weld

Aurora South West Adams Longmont Castle Rock

  • N. Broomfield

Arvada Loveland Aurora Central Lakewood NE Denver Johnstown-Milliken Windsor

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Ne w Ho me Ave ra g e $ Pe r SQ/ F T 2015 v 2016

Source: Metrostudy $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 $300.00 Lakewood

  • N. Broomfield

SE Boulder Arvada West Adams NE Denver Longmont Parker Fort Collins Aurora Central Castle Rock Loveland Windsor Aurora South Erie-Frederick Wellington Johnstown-Milliken Central Adams Greeley

  • S. Central Weld

2015 Ave $/SqFt 2016 Ave $/SqFt

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Mo de l Ho me Co unty a nd Annua l Clo sing s pe r Mo de l

Source: Metrostudy

10 20 30 40 50 60 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 Annual Closings Per Model Model Homes

Larimer C

  • unty Model Homes

Weld County Model Homes Larimer Ann Closings/Model Weld Ann Closings/Model

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Unde r Co nstruc tio n Units a nd Mo nths o f Supply

Source: Metrostudy

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16

Months of Supply Under Construction Units

Larimer County Under Construction Weld County Under Construction Larimer UC MOS Weld UC MOS

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity F inishe d Va c a nt Units a nd Mo nths o f Supply

Source: Metrostudy

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16

Months of Supply Finished Vacant Units

Larimer County Finished Vacant Weld County Finished Vacant Larimer Finished MOS Weld Finished MOS

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

F inishe d Va c a nt Ho me I nve nto ry – Mo nths o f Supply

Source: Metrostudy

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Johnstown-Milliken Fort Collins Windsor Longmont

  • S. Central Weld

Parker Castle Rock Loveland Central Adams Aurora South West Adams Greeley Wellington Arvada Erie-Frederick NE Denver Aurora Central Lakewood SE Boulder

  • N. Broomfield

Equilibrium 4Q16 MOS

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2.5 5.4 3.9 5.3 7.3 10.8 14.3 10.2 5.3 0.8 3.9 5.4 5.8 8.9 9.1 11.4

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 < $199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$499 $500-$599 $600 +

Months of Supply (MOS) Weld Larimer

Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Ne w Ho me T

  • ta l I

nve nto ry Mo nths o f Supply b y Pric e Ra ng e

Source: Metrostudy Note: Single Family Detached

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Va c a nt De ve lo pe d L

  • ts a nd Mo nths o f Supply

Source: Metrostudy

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 VDL Months of Supply Vacant Developed Lots

Weld VDL Inventory Larim er VDL Inventory Larim er VDL MOS Weld VDL MOS

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Va c a nt De ve lo pe d L

  • ts

Source: Metrostudy Note: Single Family Detached

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 < $199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$499 $500-$599 $600 +

Vacant Developed Lots Weld Larimer

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Northe rn Colora do Ne w Home Ac tivity Va c a nt De ve lo pe d L

  • ts Mo nths o f Supply

Source: Metrostudy Note: Single Family Detached

10 20 30 40 50 < $199 $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$349 $350-$399 $400-$499 $500-$599 $600 +

Months of Supply (MOS) Weld Larimer

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Va c a nt De ve lo pe d L

  • ts – Sing le F

a mily De ta c he d

Source: Metrostudy 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Parker Castle Rock Aurora South West Adams Windsor Fort Collins Arvada Central Adams Loveland Longmont NE Denver Erie-Frederick Johnstown-Milliken SE Boulder Greeley Lakewood

  • N. Broomfield

Aurora Central Wellington

  • S. Central Weld
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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Annua l Cha ng e in Va c a nt De ve lo pe d L

  • ts – Sing le F

a mily De ta c he d

Source: Metrostudy

  • 500
  • 300
  • 100

100 300 500

Windsor West Adams Castle Rock Longmont SE Boulder NE Denver Central Adams Johnstown-Milliken Lakewood Aurora Central Fort Collins Wellington

  • S. Central Weld
  • N. Broomfield

Parker Aurora South Erie-Frederick Greeley Arvada Loveland

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De nve r/ Northe rn Colora do T

  • p Subma rke t Ac tivity

Va c a nt De ve lo pe d L

  • ts Mo nths o f Supply

Source: Metrostudy

5 10 15 20 25 30

Longmont Johnstown-Milliken Fort Collins Castle Rock SE Boulder Lakewood Windsor Central Adams Parker Loveland Greeley Aurora South West Adams Arvada Aurora Central Wellington NE Denver

  • N. Broomfield

Erie-Frederick

  • S. Central Weld

Equilibrium 4Q16 MOS

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