Confidential Insights into the German Storage Market July 10 th 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

July 10th 2014 Daniela Schreiber| Partner| IBESA

Insights into the German Storage Market

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2 Agenda

Introduction IBESA Market development Profitability of PV storage systems The role of the installers The attitude of the end customers

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3 The International Battery and Energy Storage Alliance (IBESA)

IBESA´s common vision is: ”To promote a path of cooperation and mutual support in achieving proactive solutions between all sectors within the Photovoltaic (PV) Power Generation, Battery Storage and the Smart Grid Technology value chain.“

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4

Who can be a Member of IBESA

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5 Market Development

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Neue PV-Installationen mit Speicher Nachrüsten alter PV-Anlagen mit Speicher Speicheranteil an neuen PV-Installationen Anteil von Speichern bei Nachrüstungen

Prognose der Marktentwicklung

Anzahl der Speichersysteme Anteil an neuen bzw. alten PV-Anlagen

Number of the storage systems Percentage portion of new and old PV systems

Forecast Market Development

Forecast Market Development

• A strong market growth is expected until 2020. Until then the share of retrofit storage systems

becomes the most important market driver.

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Development of the PV Storage Subsidy

1,100 2,730 4,000 18.7 Mio € 45.3 Mio € 66.0 Mio € 0 Mio € 10 Mio € 20 Mio € 30 Mio € 40 Mio € 50 Mio € 60 Mio € 70 Mio € 80 Mio € 90 Mio € 100 Mio € 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 until August 2013 until end of December 2013 until Mid of May 2014 Number of subsidized Systems Total credit sum (kfW)

Source: KfW, BSW 2014

Development of subsidized residential PV-Storage batteries in Germany

13% 87%

Total subsidy budget: 25 Mio. € Used subsidy budget: 3.3 Mio. € 35% 65%

Total subsidy budget: 25 Mio. € Used subsidy budget: 8.8 Mio. € 40% 60%

Total subsidy budget: 25 Mio. € Used subsidy budget: 10 Mio. €

• The subsidies for PV storage systems are increasing constantly. However there is still 60

percent of the total subsidy budget available.

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Market potential for residential storage batteries

• In European comparison Germany is the most promising storage market. Yet Belgium and Italy

are showing high potential as well.

Germany Italy Belgium UK France

• 0.10
• 0.05

Residential electricity price EUR/kWh Bubble size displays the installed PV capacity at the end of 2013 in segment < 10 kWp FiT in EUR/kWh

Market potential for residential storage batteries

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9 Profitability of PV Storage Systems

The example of the German incentive scheme for battery systems

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10 Profitability of PV Storage Systems

Assumptions

Installation date 15.06.2014 System size 6.6 kWp Yield 905 kWh/KWp Equity 100% Battery size (nominal) 5 kWh DOD 80% Life time 20 Price PV system 1,534 €/ kW Price storage system (Lithium Ion) 2,273 €/ kWh Annual electricity consumption 4,500 kWh Electricity price (private households) 27.0 €/ kWh

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11 Profitability of PV Storage Systems

NPV PV System incl. Storage

NPV PV system and battery prices (Lithium Ion)

Net present value (NPV)

Source: EuPD Research 2014

• 4000
• 2000

2000

4000 6000

8000 10000 12000

14000

NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices

Source: EuPD Research 2014

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• 4000
• 2000

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices

Today Storage pays off NPV PV System incl. Storage

NPV PV system and battery prices (Lithium Ion)

Source: EuPD Research 2014

Profitability of PV Storage Systems

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• 4000
• 2000

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices

Storage pays off NPV PV System incl. Storage (FiT June 2014: 13.01 €Cent/ kWh) NPV only PV (FiT June 2014: 13.01 €Cent/ kWh) Storage is the better choice

NPV PV system and battery prices (Lithium Ion)

Profitability of PV Storage Systems

Source: EuPD Research 2014

Today

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• 4000
• 2000

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

NPV PV System Depending on Battery System Prices

Storage pays off NPV PV System incl. Storage (FiT 13.01 €Cent/ kWh) NPV only PV (FiT 13.01 €Cent/ kWh) Storage is the better choice

Profitability of PV Storage Systems

Source: EuPD Research 2014

Today

NPV PV system and battery prices – Impact of support scheme (Lithium Ion)

Storage support scheme

• 660 €/ kWh battery

capacity

• max. 3,000 €/ system
• Budget 25 Mio. €

Storage support scheme

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15 The role of the installers

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• A vast majority of installers already offer PV storage solutions or plans to offer them in 2014.

Installer´s Point of View

71% 17% 10% 2% We offer battery systems Currently we do not offer battery systems but we plan to do so in 2014 We do not offer battery systems and we do not plan to do so in 2014 Don't know/no response

Do you offer storage solutions? | Size | Germany

Total

Low volume Installer High volume Installer 68% 19% 10% 3% 79% 12% 9%

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15% 20% 32% 43% 53% 56% 70% 27% 37% 41% 46% 37% 32% 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Weight Brand Low price Easy of installation Service Warranty conditions Technological maturity 1 = Very important 2 3 4 5 = Not important at all

Storage solutions | Importance of features | Germany

1.6

ø

2.7 2.0 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.5

Importance of Features

• Sales and profitability are given. For installers offering storage systems the price is not the key

buying factor. Technical reliability secured by good warranty conditions and service are crucial.

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18 The attitude of the end customers

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• Customers normally don’t ask for a quotation, therefore installers should offer quotations.

Are you aware of storage solutions? Did you consider to invest in a battery system? Did you ask for/receive a quotation for a storage system? Did you install a storage system? Before 2011 New customers 2011 – 2012 Total 94% 55% 12% 3% 98% 66% 22% 7% 95% 58% 11% 3% 89% 42% 7% 2% 100%

Customer´s Point of View

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• As expected: Economic reasons are the major obstacle for the end customers.
• In addition potential customers don‘t have trust in technical maturity.

Major Obstacles

3,7 3,5 3,3 2,5 2,2 1,5 1,5 1,2

Price too high (n = 793) No positive return (n = 804) Missing technical maturity (n = 796) High feed in tariffs (n =756) No need (n = 757) No space (n = 727) Installer advised against (n = 621) ESS not available (n = 598) Quelle: EuPD Research 2013

Kunden ziehen Speicher nicht in Erwägung, da: (Mittelwerte)

1 = trifft überhaupt nicht zu 4 = trifft absoult zu

3,7 3,2 3,1 1,8 1,3 1,3 1,6 1,2 Kunden haben sich kein Angebot eingeholt, da: (Mittelwerte) 3,7 3,3 2,8 1,5 1,3 1,2 1,8 1,2 Kunden haben keinen Speicher installiert, da: (Mittelwerte)

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21 Conclusion

• The German market is an attractive market for PV storage!
• PV storage systems are already economically!
• Many of the installers already offer PV storage systems!
• Rising demand for PV storage systems by the end customers!

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22 International Battery & Energy Storage Alliance

EUROPE

Adenauerallee 134 D-53113 Bonn Phone +49(0)228-97143-0 Fax +49(0)228-97143-11 europe@ibesalliance.org

www.ibesalliance.org

ASIA

Rm 603, APEC Plaza 49 Hoi Yuen Rd. Kwun Tong, HK Phone +852-26232317 asia@ibesalliance.org

USA

P.O. Box 771507 Orlando, Florida 32877 Phone +1 407 856 9100 Fax +1 407 856 9500 usa@ibesalliance.org

USA West

870 Market Street, Suite 1055 San Francisco, CA usa@ibesalliance.org

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