Company Presentation
Last update – 2015 H1 Results
Company Presentation CERVED INFORMATION SOLUTIONS S.p.A. Last update - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Company Presentation CERVED INFORMATION SOLUTIONS S.p.A. Last update 2015 H1 Results Disclaimer This presentation and any materials distributed in connection herewith (together, the Presentation) do not constitute or form a part of, and
Last update – 2015 H1 Results
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This presentation and any materials distributed in connection herewith (together, the “Presentation”) do not constitute or form a part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to purchase
relied upon in connection with, or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of Cerved Information Solutions S.p.A., its subsidiaries or any of their respective employees, advisers, representatives or affiliates shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or
date of this Presentation and is subject to change without notice. Statements made in this Presentation may include forward-looking statements. These statements may be identified by the fact that they use words such as “anticipate”, “estimate”, “should”, “expect”, “guidance”, “project”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, and/or other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with, among other things, any discussion of results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies or developments in the industry in which we operate. Such statements are based on management’s current intentions, expectations or beliefs and involve inherent risks, assumptions and uncertainties, including factors that could delay, divert or change any of
taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. Actual outcomes, results and other future events may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the statements contained herein. Such differences may adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein and may result from, among other things, changes in economic, business, competitive, technological, strategic or regulatory factors and
amend any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this Presentation. It should be noted that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Please also note that interim results are not necessarily indicative of full-year results.
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Half-Year Business Review
Overview
Investment Case
Half-Year 2015 Results
Appendices
Source: PwC 1) No. 1 player In the non-captive market, considering pro-forma revenues in 2013 which include Recus and Tarida
2% 42% Corporates
290 (+3.6%)
Business Information
627 (+3.9%) 721 (+8.5%)
Cerved
Position and Market Share in 2013 359 (-4.3%)
4.2% 42.7% 7.3%1) Financial Institutions
Consumer 321 Corporates 305
€14.7m 4% of Group (+18.4% CAGR) €142.7m 43% of Group (+8.5% CAGR) €53.3m 16% of Group (+63.7% CAGR) €122.0m 37% of Group (-3.3% CAGR)
No.1
No.1
Market
2013 Data (€m) (CAGR 11-13)
Cerved
2014 Revenues (CAGR 11-14)
NPLs 502 Corporate receivables 219
Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions
Business Information 120 Rating & Analytics 39 Real Estate 97 Consumer Information 103 3
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Consistent Growth EBITDA Growth High Cash Flows
Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) EBITDA – Capex (€m)
113 119 125 132 65 69 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 138 145 152 160 79 84 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 267 291 313 331 164 178 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15
+8.3%/ 2.1% +7.4% / +3.9% % / % Total Growth % / Organic Growth %
Consistent Revenue, EBITDA and Cash Flow growth
Note: 2011 and 2012 EBITDA adjusted for shareholder’s fees and 2011 adjusted to review accounting policy related to the database acquisition costs
+5.1% / +3.8% +6.4% +6.5%/ +4.4% +5.2%
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Mission-critical products and services through the cycle Undisputed market leadership Significant competitive advantages High revenue visibility Fundamental sector growth Untapped potential within the Italian market Cerved specific organic growth initiatives M&A Best-in-class EBITDA margins Cash conversion
Growth
Cash flow
Resiliency
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Credit Information - Consolidate position in financial institutions Credit Information and Marketing Services - Continue to exploit the underpenetrated corporate market Exploit opportunities in adjacent markets Credit Management - Grow AUM and keep focused on collection Continue to invest in new product development and innovation Add-on opportunities focused on the Italian market
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Half-Year 2015 Results
Investment Case
Appendices
Overview
Half-Year Business Review
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Revenues (€m) and Revenue growth (%) Revenue Bridge (H1’2014 – H1’2015) – (€m)
% / % Total Growth % / Organic Growth %
290,6 313,5 331,3 164,0 177,6
2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15
+7.9% / +5.7% +5.7% / +3.8% +8.3% / 2.1%
164,0 177,6 0,9 (0,4) 13,1 0,3 (0,3)
Revenues H1'2014 CI - Financial Institutions CI - Corporates Credit Management Marketing Solutions Other & Conso clearing Revenues H1'2015
Credit Information
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EBITDA (1) (€m) and EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA Bridge (H1’2014 – H1’2015) – (€m)
% / %
144,7 151,5 160,1 79,3 84,4
2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 48.3% 49.8% 48.3%
+4.7% / +4.6% +5.6/ +4.5% Total Growth % / Organic Growth % +6.5% / +4.4%
48.4% 47.5% 79,3 84,4 0,7 4,3 0,1
EBITDA H1'2014 Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions EBITDA H1'2015
(1) FY 2012 EBITDA is adjusted for Shareholder Fees;
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Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions
127,4 126,3 122,0 61,8 62,7 128,8 138,2 142,7 73,7 73,3 256,2 264,5 264,7 135,6 136,0 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15
Revenue EBITDA
136,8 139,3 142,1 72,6 73,3 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 25,0 36,6 53,3 23,0 36,1 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 4,4 7,6 11,2 4,4 8,7 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 9,9 12,8 14,7 6,0 6,3 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 3,5 4,7 6,8 2,3 2,4 2012 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15
35.6% 36.5% 45.9% 20.7% 21.0% 53.4% 52.7% 53.7% 5.4%
Corp.
% YoY Growth %
21.9%
57.2%
45.9% 1.6%
0.3%
1.9%
0.9% 17.6% 5.5%
38.5%
97.7%
59.3%
% EBITDA margin % % CAGR
37.8% 37.9% 19.2% 24.2% 53.6% 53.9% %
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Summary Profit and Loss (€m)
€m 2013 2014 H1' 14 H1' 15 Revenues 313,5 331,3 164,0 177,6 % growth (YoY) 7,9% 5,7% 6,4% 8,3% EBITDA 151,5 160,1 79,3 84,4 % Revenues 48,3% 48,3% 48,4% 47,5% Depreciation & Amortization (23,3) (25,1) (11,9) (14,5) EBITA 128,2 135,0 67,4 69,9 PPA Amortization (39,4) (42,9) (21,3) (21,8) Non recurring income and expenses (7,4) (4,5) (1,7) (2,0) EBIT 81,4 87,6 44,3 46,1 Financial income 0,8 1,1 0,9 0,5 Financial expenses - non recurring
(10,1)
(59,6) (54,6) (30,2) (21,6) PBT 22,6 24,0 5,0 25,0 Income tax expenses (14,7) (12,0) (3,3) (8,5) Reported Net Income 8,0 12,0 1,7 16,4 Adjusted Net Income 43,0 55,0 26,2 33,9
1,1 1,4 0,6 0,9
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Net Working Capital (€m) 119,5 151,5 135,3 145,3 143,6 123,2 134,8 (25,4) (30,1) (31,8) (32,4) (34,8) (27,3) (30,0) (82,5) (81,9) (73,3) (73,3) (64,6) (60,3) (60,3) 11,6 40,8 31,0 40,4 45,7 36,7 45,6 2012 2013 2014 Ex-M&A 2014 H1'14 H1'15 Ex-M&A H1'15
Inventories Trade receivables Trade payables Deferred revenues Net Working Capital 4.0% 13.0% NWC as % of Revenues % 9.5%1) 14.1% 11.7%2) 13.0%2)
(1) Data excludes Recus , RLValue and the Creval transaction (2) NWC/Revenues based on Revenues of Recus and RL Value for the last 12 months
11.1%1)
Operating Cash Flow (€m)
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(1) Cash change in Net Working Capital exludes non recurring items
€m 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 EBITDA 151,5 160,1 79,3 84,4 Net Capex (26,6) (28,2) (14,2) (15,1) EBITDA-Capex 125,0 131,9 65,2 69,3 as % of EBITDA 82% 82% 82% 82% Cash change in Net Working Capital(1) (24,7) 8,2 (13,9) (4,9) Change in other assets / liabilities 7,3 (13,9) (3,5) (4,1) Operating Cash Flow 107,5 126,2 47,7 60,3
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Net Financial Indebtedness (€m)
25,5 21,5 17,5 13,5 9,6 9,6 9,6 9,6 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,8 29,6 25,7 21,7 17,8 13,8 13,8 13,8 13,8 9,2 9,2 9,2 9,2 4,6 20 40 60 jan-15 apr-15 jul-15
jan-16 apr-16 jul-16
jan-17 apr-17 jul-17
jan-18
Senior Subordinated Senior Secured
Bond Redemption Cost Evolution (€m)
€m 2013 H1'14 2014 H1'15 Bonds 780,0 530,0 530,0 530,0 Other financial Debt 1) 0,6 0,6 4,0 25,9 Accrued Interests 20,6 17,8 17,3 17,3 Gross Debt 801,1 548,4 551,3 573,2 Cash (50,3) (17,1) (46,1) (14,3) Capitalized financing fees (28,6) (19,1) (17,6) (16,2) IFRS Net Debt 722,2 512,1 487,6 542,7 Net Debt/ LTM EBITDA 4,8x 3,3x 3,0x 3,3x
(1) H1'15 Includes 5m of Revolving Credit Facility and 16m of Vendor Loan
FY 2015
including Creval Partnership for 3 quarters
Leverage
Dividends
Organic Growth
EBITDA Leverage & Dividends
FY 2014 Reported
FY 2014 Proforma
Including Recus & RLValue
Maximize distribution of available cash, to the extent permitted by our financial condition and future investment opportunities, as per board’s programmatic resolution
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Revenue Growth Corporate Credit Info needs to improve in H2 EBITDA Growth In line with targets Net Profit In line with targets Cash Flow In line with targets Leverage Reduce leverage to c. 3.0x by year-end Refinancing New committed facilities in place M&A pipeline Good prospects to close deals in H2 New Product Development Need to transform efforts into Revenues Guidance for 2015 EBITDA confirmed in range of €170-174m Cerved’s performance YTD to June in line with key objectives for 2015
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Source: Bank of Italy 11,3% 12,4% 12,7% 12,4% 10,8% 8,6% 8,1% 7,4%
Key Economic Indicators Cerved Proprietary Data Italian unemployment Italian GDP New lending
% of companies paying over 60 days late versus contractual terms Number of proceedings (seasonally adjusted) and growth rates versus same quarter of previous year
In Q1 2015 GDP grew
+0.3% vs prior quarter. FMI and ISTAT expect +0.7% growth in 2015
Unemployment is now
declining from a record level in 2014
New bank lending YTD
to May 2015 grew by 22.5% vs 2014
Cerved
proprietary data also reflecting an improved macro
Companies paying late
continue to decline
Bankruptcies in Q1 2015
declined 2.8% vs 2014
Growth in the stock of
NPLs appears to be flattening
Growth rate compared to the previous quarter New lending volumes in € billions (quarterly)
Key highlights Late paying companies Bankruptcies NPLs Key highlights
Unemployment as % of total working population Default rate on outstanding loans (Q3 and Q4 2014 are forecasts; Cerved estimates
Source: Osservatorio Cerved
50 100 150 200
2008 – 2010 – 2012 – Q1’15
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015
Q1
5.3% 13.5% 7.2%
Source: Osservatorio Cerved
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015
Q1
3,0% 3,5% 3,7% 3,8% Source: Osservatorio Cerved, Bank of Italy,
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015
Q1
Q4
Q4 0,0% Q4 0,0%
Source: ISTAT, OECD
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015
Q1
YoY -0.4% YoY -1.7% YoY -2.8%
Source: ISTAT
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015
Q1
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Half-Year 2015 Results
Half-Year Business Review
Investment Case
Appendices
Overview
Operational and Strategic Update
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Finance and M&A Business Credit Information – Corporate Credit Information – Financial Institutions Credit Management Marketing Solutions Refinancing Mergers & Acquisitions New Product Development
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Investing in the business to improve performance in the medium term
Revenues returned to growth in Q2 (+1.3%) after a weak Q1 (-2.4%), largely due to the tough comparison with 2014 which had particularly strong results Key performance indicators in H1 2015 are solid with respect to the sale and consumption of prepaid points H2 2015 expected to yield higher Revenue growth due to a less tough comparable Currently implementing strategic revamping project to improve sales force efficiency and effectiveness to enhance growth starting from 2016
Corporate Sales Force Revamp Revenues (€m) 142,7 35,2 38,1 73,3
2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 H1'15
(0.5)% +3.3% % YTD +1.3% (2.4)%
Key Initiatives
New Go-to-Market
(Segmentation & Prospect Clients)
Teleselling for Small Clients Salesforce Reinforcement New CRM New Churn Reduction Initiatives
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q1Q3'16 Q2'16 Q1'16 Go Live Date Business Finance & M&A
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After a tough 2014 the environment appears less challenging in 2015 Bank New Lending – Quarterly from 2008 (€bn) 1)
50 100 150 200 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Q1'12 Q1'13 Q1'14 Q1'15
Performance in H1 2015 at +1.4% (+2.6% in Q1 and +0.2% in Q2) slightly above upper target of expectations for 2015 Positive performance in real estate appraisals, balancing contraction in cadastal
Continuing activity on the renewal and extension of contracts with large banks Actively working with Experian to review go-to-market and product offering for the consumer credit bureau
1) Source: Bank of Italy
122,0 31,1 31,6 62,7
2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 H1'15
(3.4)% +1.4%
Revenues (€m)
% YTD +2.6% +0.2%
Business Finance & M&A
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Continuing strong results with positive tailwind from market and regulatory 11,2 2,4 6,3 8,7
EBITDA 2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 H1'15
AuM Evolution (€bn)
Legislative changes appear promising - but largely still on paper. On day-to-day
2015 growth in Revenues, EBITDA and AUM reflect a combination of organic, quasi
Recus performing below target due to a number of factors, numerous initiatives being taken to return to historic levels Strong focus on strategic project to achieve operational excellence
12,9 10,3 7,8 1,8 1,3 0,5
H1'2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
53,3 14,1 21,9 36,1
Rev 2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 H1'15
+57.2% +45.5% +47.2%
Revenues and EBITDA (€m)
% YTD +97.7% +73.3% +37.3% +142.0% +34.2%
Business Finance & M&A
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Full roll-out of Marketing+ expected to enhance results in H2 2015 Marketing+ Web-based Platform
YTD results below full year targets, impacted by switch from B-Circles to Marketing+, the new web-based marketing platform Marketing+ sales campaign began in late May (full roll-out to the sales force only in June) and is showing encouraging results Increased focus of commercial network on avoid cannibalization with the corporate credit information activities Higher Revenues growth expected in H2 2015 reflecting full impact of Marketing+
14,7 2,9 3,4 6,3
Rev 2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 H1'15
+5.4% +15.3%
Revenues and EBITDA (€m)
% YTD
6,8 1,0 1,4 2,4
EBITDA 2014 Q1'15 Q2'15 H1'15
+45.0% +5.5% +6.0% +4.8% +12.2% (2.2)%
Find and compare companies Analyze sectors Improve performance
Geomarketing tool DBforYou (web visualization tool)
Ad-hoc projects
Business Finance & M&A
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Unprecedented effort to renew product range and offer new services
Business Finance & M&A
Data Sources Platforms & Applications Adjacent Services Web Data Open Data integration Real Estate DataBase Marketing+ Credit Monitoring Decision analytics Upgrade of main applications Real Estate Value-Added BPO Anti Money Laundering Credit on Self
Proprietary Technology Proprietary Content Higher value-added output Improved customer experience Enriched value proposition Cross-selling opportunities
Crystallizing refinancing conditions for January 2016
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Business Finance & M&A
39 16 23
Bond Interest Expenses Interest Savings New Facilities Interest Expenses
TLA –Amortizing 160m E+2.00% 4 year
TLB – Bullet 400m E+2.50% 6 years Revolving Credit Facility 100m E+2.00% 5 years
Committed facilities of €660m (including €100m RCF) available to be drawn in January 2016, locking in attractive terms to refinance Cerved’s outstanding bonds Reduction in interest cost of approx. €23m p.a. with a reduction in weighted average cost from 7.1% to 2.7% (assuming 75% of the new facilities are swapped to fixed rate) One-off cash costs estimated at €37m (€23.4m prepayment penalties, plus upfront and ticking fees and other costs) almost entirely payable in January 2016
Comparison of Yearly Interest Costs Overview of the New Facilities
Initial Margin % Tenor Facility Amount (€)
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Creval, RLValue and SpazioDati on track, Recus below expectations Mergers & Acquisitions – Summary Data Recus SpA 81% 19.0m RLValue Srl 100% 1.4m Creval Partnership 100% 21.7m SpazioDati Srl 43% 2.3m
Company Stake % Investment CI BI CM Adj. MS Advanced Preliminary Status
More Less Effort
M&A Effort and Status
Illustrative Pipeline 2015
Creval performing in line with plan, merger effective from 1 July 2015 RLValue performing above plan, merger effective from 1 April 2015 SpazioDati €1.0m capital increase to increase stake to 43% and develop new projects Recus hit by numerous factors, performance below plan, contingency plan under way Numerous opportunities in pipeline in all divisions as well as in adjacencies Pipeline exclusively focussed on opportunities in Italy
Business Finance & M&A
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Half-Year 2015 Results
Investment Case
Appendices
Overview
Half-Year Business Review
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Mission-critical for the majority of corporates At the core of the Italian economy supporting c.€1.5trn credit positions
700 1.455 390 365
Stock of monitored lending New lending Commercial credit Total credit supported by Cerved Credit positions supported by Cerved Information (€bn)
Monitoring
Covering the full spectrum of the credit value chain
Recovery Underwriting Origination
c.700 c.31.200 Credit Information client base
Financial insitutions Corporates
Credit management Credit Information Marketing solutions Credit management Decision analytics and Monitoring Credit limit sizing
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Source: PwC 1) No. 1 player In the non-captive market, considering pro-forma revenues in 2013 which include Recus and Tarida
2% 42% Corporates
290 (+3.6%)
Business Information
627 (+3.9%) 721 (+8.5%)
Cerved
Position and Market Share in 2013 359 (-4.3%)
4.2% 42.7% 7.3%1) Financial Institutions
Consumer 321 Corporates 305
€14,7m 4% of Group (+18.4% CAGR) €142.7m 43% of Group (+8.5% CAGR) €53,3m 16% of Group (+63.7% CAGR) €122,0m 37% of Group (-3.3% CAGR)
No.1
No.1
Market
2013 Data (€m) (CAGR 11-13)
Cerved
2014 Revenues (CAGR 11-14)
NPLs 502 Corporate receivables 219
Credit Information Credit Management Marketing Solutions
Business Information 120 Rating & Analytics 39 Real Estate 97 Consumer Information 103
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Data sourcing Data processing Products Sales
Investment of c.€40m
p.a.
16mm companies
and 20mm company- related individuals for >40 years
Mix of proprietary,
unofficial and official information making it difficult to replicate
More than 450 FTEs
who process, analyse and check the data
More than 200 FTEs in
the IT department: almost all of the products are online
Broadest product
range for corporates and financial institutions: c.30 families and c.180 individual products
More than 30 FTEs in
the marketing department
National sales network
− More than 300 FTEs for corporates − Around 45 FTEs for financial institutions
Cerved revenue Breakdown 2014
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RMS 2013 (1) Cerved CAGR 11-14 Cerved CAGR 11-13 Market CAGR 11-13
Source: Company information, PwC (1) Relative Market Share: Cerved’s revenue divided by revenue of No. 2 market player
Credit Information
1.6x 2.4% 3.6% (1.0%)
€649m
Credit Information 80%
Market size and Cerved’s market share in Credit Information 2014
41% market share
Crif Infocamere Ribes Assicom Visura REAG 4 Prometeia Wise 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00 EBITDA Margin % Relative Market Share in Credit Information (RMS)(1)
32
Sources: Company information, AIDA, PwC Estimates (1) RMS = Competitor revenue / Cerved’s revenue; except for Cerved’s RMS which is defined as Cerved’s revenue divided by the revenue of the No. 2 market player
Scale vs. profitability – Cerved vs. competitors 2013A
A bubble of this size represents €30 million in revenue
29,7% 34,6% 35,1% 48,3%
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EBITDA margin 2014A Operating cash flow margin 2014A(1)
Source: Company information for Cerved and comparables (1) Defined as (adj. EBITDA – Capex)/Revenue (2) LTM as of September 2014
26,5% 31,0% 27,0% 39,9%
(2) (2)
255 265 270 275 290 123 126 123 119 120 123 134 118 98 97 41 44 41 40 39 123 115 110 102 103
665 684 662 634 649
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Credit Information Market (€m)
(6,1)% (1,0)% (7,4)% (1,0)% 2,6%
(0.6)%
Source: IMF, AIFI (Associazione Italiana Private Equity e Venture Capital), AIDA, Financial Reports, PwC Estimates
Consumer Information Banks Rating & Scoring Banks Real Estate Banks Business Information Banks Business Information Corporate
152 164 180 192 219 256 276 311 323 359 100 107 121 133 142
508 547 612 648 721
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
+9.1%
10.1% 8.0% 8.1%
Bank NPLs Consumer Finance NPLs Corporate NPLs CAGR ‘09-’13 CAGR ‘09-’13
Credit Management Market (€m)
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Increasing need for credit checks Increasing receivable volumes Increasing new lending and stock of loans Increasing economic activity Higher scrutiny and monitoring Increasing need for more frequent checks and credit information
Increasing counterparty risk Corporates Financial institutions Corporates Financial institutions
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Increasing SME Credit Information penetration expected to continue
1.185 510 437 395 394
Large SME market
Thousands of SMEs (10-250 FTEs) 2013A
Long enforcement times
Average days to enforce a contract 2014A
34% 34% 35% 35% 37% 38% 40% 41% 43% 44% 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13E 14E 15E 16E 17E
(1) For companies with more than €1mm in revenue (2) For Italy, penetration represents the weighted average of: 25/35% penetration for ~170k small companies (10-49 FTEs); 60/70% penetration for ~20k medium companies (50-200 FTEs); 70/80% penetration for ~4k large companies (>200 FTEs)
Credit Information penetration 2012A (%) Credit Information penetration 2008A-17E(%)
36
Italian SMEs usage of Credit Information underpenetrated vs. UK
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
78%(1) 37%(2)
Source: World Bank Source: Annual Report of European SMEs 2014 – European Commission (data on 2013)
191 186 158 123 392
Source: Eurostat, Cerved Group, Interviews to industry experts Source: Eurostat, Cerved Group, Interviews to industry experts
227 216 201 183 156 125 107 78 59 2017E 2016E 2015E 2014E 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Market NPLs
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12,9 10,3 7,8 1,8 1,3 0,5 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Cerved NPLs
Captive portfolio purchased prior to 2009 €0.8bn SPV corporate /SME €4.3bn on 3 SPVs €1.9bn consumer finance €0.9bn SPV consumer loan
Market Growth
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
(1)1) Excludes Finservice which operates on the collection of NPLs for corporates. (2)2) As of June 30th, 2015
25.4% 7.4% CAGR 2009A–14E: CAGR 2014E–17E:
€0.5bn various banks contracts €2.1bn from Creval agreement
Cerved Growth
Pre-crisis level of €40-50bn Current level of €183bn, expected to increase to €227bn by 2017 #1 Independent Player Growth from i) NPL growth and ii) increased outsourcing/NPLs disposals acted by banks
(1)Source: Prometeia Source: Company information
Market NPLS Cerved NPLs
Increasing NPL volumes Low liquidity, low collections, higher
fees
Decreasing NPL prices, outsourcing
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Negative economic cycle Opportunistically intake massive portfolios Maximize collections Positive economic cycle
Increasing liquidity Refinancing options for debt holders Increasing collections
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Illustrative impact of economic cycle
NPL stock Collection rates Time
Consolidation of core markets
Deal Revenue
€28mm Dec 2003 €6mm Dec 2007 €67mm Dec 2008 €16mm Dec 2011 €10mm Mar 2013 n.m. Start-up €1mm Dec 2010
Data Services
Cerved M&A track record 2004-2014
2004 2005 2008
€14mm Mar 2012
Information Services
2012 2011 2013 2014
Illustrative M&A pipeline for 2015
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Entry into adjacent markets
€0.5 Dec 2013 €15.7mm Dec 2014 €8-9m in FY2015 39
CI BI CM Adj. MS
Advanced Preliminary Status
More Less Effort
M&A Effort and Status
2015
126 58 74 39 30 23 6 Actual 2014 Operating Cash Flow Interest on Existing €530m Bonds Illustrative Cash Taxes (1) Illustrative Free Cash Flow (Pre-refinancing) Interest Savings on Forward Start Refinancing Cash Taxes on Interest Savings Illustrative Free Cash Flow (Post-refinancing)
(1) Estimated value for the long term using an overall 34% tax rate; cash taxes in 2015 expected to be higher due to non-recurring timing effects
40
Resiliency Cash flow Growth
Illustrative 2014 Free Cash Flow Bridge excluding non-recurring items
Pre Bond Refinancing Post Bond Refinancing
41
Half-Year 2015 Results
Appendices
Investment Case
Overview
Half-Year Business Review
42
incorporated on 14 March 2014 and holds a 100% stake in Cerved Group SpA (“CG SpA”) since 28 March 2014
consolidated business operations, the financial data referred to FY2014 and FY2013 are represented via the following accounts’ aggregation respectively: (i.) CG SpA from 1 January to 31 March 2014 and CIS SpA from 14 March to 31 December 2014, and (ii.) Cerved Holding SpA from 1 January to 27 February 2013 and Cerved Group SpA from 9 January to 31 December 2013
CIS SpA and CG SpA, mainly related to costs connected to CIS SpA’s status as listed company, and costs incurred to carry out the IPO of CIS SpA (in 2014 results)
(listed on the Milan Stock Exchange) and CG SpA (issuer of €530m of bonds)
Quarterly Analysis - Revenues (€m) Quarterly Analysis - EBITDA(€m)
Total Growth % / Organic Growth % % / %
79,3 84,4 H1
2014 2015
164,0 177,6 H1
2014 2015
79,3 84,7 83,0 94,6 Q1 Q2 38,1 41,3 39,4 45,0 Q1 Q2
Total Growth % / Organic Growth % +11.6% / +4.6% % / % +8.3% / +2.1% +4.7% / (0.7)% +6.5% / +4.4% +9.1%/ 7.4% +3.6% / +1.1% 43
Credit Information – Financial Institutions – Rev (€m) Credit Information – Corporate – Rev (€m) Credit Information – Revenues (€m)
66,4 69,2 135,6 66,3 69,7 136,0 Rev CI - Q1 Rev CI - Q2 Rev CI - H1
2014 2015
35,2 37,4 72,6 36,0 37,4 73,3 EBITDA - Q1 EBITDA - Q2 EBITDA - H1
2014 2015
(0.1)% 0.8%
Credit Information – EBITDA (€m)
2.2% (0.2)% 0.9% 0.3%
30,3 31,5 61,8 31,1 31,6 62,7 Rev- Q1 Rev - Q2 Rev - H1
2.6%
36,1 37,7 73,7 35,2 38,1 73,3 Rev- Q1 Rev - Q2 Rev - H1
2014 2015
1.4% (0.5%) 1.3% (2.4%) 0.2%
44
Marketing Solutions – Revenues and EBITDA (€m) Credit Management – Revenues and EBITDA (€m)
1,0 1,2 2,3 1,0 1,4 2,4 EBITDA - Q1 EBITDA - Q2 EBITDA - H1
2014 2015
(2.2%)
2,8 3,2 6,0 2,9 3,4 6,3 Rev - Q1 Rev - Q2 Rev - H1
4.8% 6.0% 5.4% 12.2% 5.5%
10,3 12,7 23,0 14,1 21,9 36,1 Rev - Q1 Rev - Q2 Rev - H1
37.3% 73.3% 57.2% 34.2% 142.0% 97.7%
1,8 2,6 4,4 2,4 6,3 8,7 EBITDA - Q1 EBITDA - Q2 EBITDA - H1
2014 2015
45
46
Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports
€m 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 Total Revenues (including other income) 313,7 331,6 164,1 177,6 Cost of raw material and other materials (2,8) (7,0) (2,7) (4,7) Cost of Services (77,6) (76,3) (39,3) (39,7) Personnel costs (67,2) (73,7) (36,1) (41,5) Other operating costs (8,1) (8,2) (3,8) (4,4) Impairment of receivables and other provisions (6,4) (6,3) (2,8) (2,8) EBITDA 151,5 160,1 79,3 84,4 Depreciation & amortization (23,3) (25,1) (11,9) (14,5) EBITA 128,2 135,0 67,4 69,9 PPA Amortization (39,4) (42,9) (21,3) (21,8) Non-recurring income and expenses (7,4) (4,5) (1,7) (2,0) EBIT 81,4 87,6 44,3 46,1 PBT 22,6 24,0 5,0 25,0 Income tax expenses (14,7) (12,0) (3,3) (8,5) Reported Net Income 8,0 12,0 1,7 16,4 Adjusted Net Income 43,0 55,0 26,2 33,9
1,1 1,4 0,6 0,9
47
Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports (1) Non cash item (2) Net of capitalized financing fees
€m 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 Intangible assets 501,1 472,4 481,7 451,6 Goodwill 708,6 718,8 709,1 739,5 Tangible assets 16,6 17,3 16,9 16,9 Financial assets 14,9 14,9 16,4 15,9 Fixed assets 1.241,3 1.223,4 1.224,1 1.223,9 Inventories 1,3 0,7 1,6 1,1 Trade receivables 151,5 145,3 143,6 134,8 Trade payables (30,1) (32,4) (34,8) (30,0) Deferred revenues (83,1) (73,3) (64,6) (60,3) Net working capital 39,6 40,4 45,7 45,6 Other receivables 5,8 7,1 7,4 8,5 Other payables (20,4) (26,1) (27,9) (22,4) Net corporate income tax items (27,2) (18,8) (11,1) (5,8) Employees Leaving Indemnity (10,9) (13,1) (11,7) (12,6) Provisions (15,0) (11,1) (12,0) (8,7) Deferred taxes (1) (119,8) (109,1) (110,0) (104,1) Net Invested Capital 1.093,3 1.092,7 1.104,6 1.124,5 IFRS Net Debt (2) 722,2 487,6 512,1 542,7 Group Equity 371,1 605,1 592,5 581,8 Total Sources 1.093,3 1.092,7 1.104,6 1.124,5
48
Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports
€m 2013 2014 H1'14 H1'15 EBITDA 151,5 160,1 79,3 84,4 Net Capex (26,6) (28,2) (14,2) (15,1) EBITDA-Capex 125,0 131,9 65,2 69,3 as % of EBITDA 82% 82% 82% 82% Cash change in Net Working Capital (24,7) 8,2 (13,9) (4,9) Change in other assets / liabilities 7,3 (13,9) (3,5) (4,1) Operating Cash Flow 107,5 126,2 47,7 60,3 Interests paid (29,1) (51,7) (32,5) (19,8) Cash taxes (18,4) (24,1) (19,2) (28,4) Non recurring items 0,1 (3,4) (1,7) (2,0) Cash Flow (before debt and equity movements) 60,1 46,9 (5,7) 10,1 Net Dividends (0,1) 1,0 0,9 (39,8) Acquisitions / deferred payments / earnout (509,4) (20,9) (1,2) (23,3) IPO Capital Increase (net of IPO costs)
226,2
Debt drawdown / (repayment) 482,8 (254,5) (253,2)
33,5 (7,5) (33,1) (54,1)
49
Source: Company Information, 2013 as “Added data”, 2014 as “Aggregated data”; for further details refer to CIS S.p.A. Quarterly and Annual Reports Note: PPA Amortization refers to business aggregation processes
€m 2013 2014 H1’14 H1'15 Reported Net Income 8,0 12,0 1,7 16,4 Non recurring income and expenses 7,4 4,5 1,7 2,0 Capitalized financing fees 4,1 3,4 1,9 1,4 PPA Amortization 39,4 42,9 21,3 21,8 Financial charges non-recurring
10,1
(15,8) (18,9) (10,5) (7,8) Adjustments 35,1 43,0 24,5 17,4 Adjusted Net Income 43,0 55,0 26,2 33,9