Climate Change Impacts in Hawaii Chip Fletcher School of Ocean and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Impacts in Hawai‘i Chip Fletcher School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Hono‘lulu Climate Change Commission

Rate of CO 2 accumulation is accelerating. Rate of warming is accelerating. Currently 1.2 o C (2.2 o F) 2030 1.5 o C (2.7 o F) 2045 2.0 o C (3.6 o F)

The world is now 1.2 o C (2.2 o F) warmer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4bSxb5THm4

Is global warming part of a natural cycle?

Ice Cores contain fossil air bubbles

Melting an ice sample to capture the ancient air it contains

Climate cycles ~100,000 yrs Carbon dioxide concentration Interglacials Ice Ages

Natural Climate Change is fairly well understood Orbital Parameters determine the intensity and duration of Arctic summer and lead to ice ages and interglacials . Eccentricity Axial Obliquity – 41,000 yrs Axial Precession – 26,000 yrs 100,000 and 400,000 yrs

Ice Age

Interglacial

• 3 o C – East Antarctic, Permafrost, Winter sea ice • 2 o C – Amazon Forest, Boreal Forest, Oceanic Conveyor Belt, ENSO, Sahel, Greenland Ice Sheet • 1 o C – West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Arctic Sea Ice, Mountain Glaciers, Coral Reefs Anthropogenic warming Slow cooling over the Holocene Holocene Interglacial Maximum heating from Ice Age Orbital Parameters Marcott, S.A., 2013, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, 08 Mar: 1198-1201Temperature. Schellnhuber, H.J., et al. (2016) Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris, Nature Climate Change, v. 6, July

What are the impacts of climate change in Hawai‘i?

Hawai‘i is getting warmer 100-yr change = +0.52°C (+0.94°F) McKenzie, M.M., Giambelluca, T.W., and Diaz, H.F. Accepted. Regional temperature trends in Hawai‘i: a century of change, 1917-2016. International Journal of Climatology .

Average daily wind speeds are declining Marra, J.J., and Kruk, M.C. (2017) State of Environmental Conditions in Hawai‘i and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands under a Changing Climate: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/publications/state_of_the_environment_2017_hawaii-usapi_noaa-nesdis-ncei_oct2017.pdf.

Sea surface temperatures are rising – especially during El Niño

32 Record Hot Days May 16- June 9, 2019

Hawai‘i is getting drier 6% decrease per decade 30 yrs Giambelluca, T.W., Diaz, H.F., Elison Timm, O., Takahashi, M., Frazier, A.G., and Longman, R. 2011. Regional climate trends in Hawai � i. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 2011.

Declining rainfall in wet and dry seasons; affecting all the major islands. Summer Winter Frazier, A.G., Elison Timm, O., Giambelluca, T.W. and Diaz, H.F. (2018) The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai‘i. Climate Dynamics , 51, 2127–2140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4003-4.

Kona drought has been especially intense

Stream Base Flow N. Fork Kaukonahua Kalihi 1913-2008 ANNUAL MEDIAN STREAMFLOW, Q 50 D. Oki, 2004 Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-term Gauging Stations, Hawai‘i , U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5080.

Wildfire is increasing in Hawai‘i Trauernicht, C., E. et al. 2015 The contemporary scale and context of wildfire in Hawaii. Pacific Science 69:427-444

Less than half of the landscape in Hawai‘i is still dominated by native plants Jacobi, J. D., J. P. Price, L. B. Fortini, G. 'Ohukani'ohi'a III Samuel M., and P. Berkowitz, 2017: Baseline land cover. Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Carbon Fluxes in Ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Selmants, P. C., C. P. Giardina, J. D. Jacobi, and Z. Zhu, Eds., U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 9–20. URL

Avian malaria threatens Hawaiian forest birds. The threat increases with rising temperature. Fortini, L. B., A. E. Vorsino, F. A. Amidon, E. H. Paxton, and J. D. Jacobi, 2015: Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options. PLOS ONE , 10 , e0144311. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140389

Flooding is a global problem Global extreme rainfall has increased 12% Lehmann, J., et al. (2015) Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change , doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y

Global extreme rainfall has increased 12% Lehmann, J., et al. (2015) Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change , doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y

O‘ahu, April 2018 State of Emergency, $124 million

Short steep watersheds w/ heavy development promote flooding

O‘ahu, April 2018 Water in Wailupe Gulch rose 8 ft

Kaua‘i, April 2018 49.69 inches in 24-hour, national record

Kaua‘i, April 2018 Hanalei River rose 15 feet

Kaua‘i, April 2018 Hanalei River jumped its bank and carved a new channel

Hurricanes and Climate Change • Warmer water = More fuel • Larger • More rain • Stronger wind = Higher category • Slower = More damage • Higher storm surge • Shifting away from equator Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Stronger? http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global- warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/

1994 hurricane season

2018 hurricane season

Hurricane Michael, Florida Panhandle, October, 2018

Hurricane Michael, Florida Panhandle, October, 2018

Global weather disasters have doubled in two decades Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction: http://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-weather-related-disasters-1995-2015

Worldwide Extreme Weather Catastrophes 1980-2016

Oceans are hotter, more acidic, with 2% less oxygen Cheng LJ and Zhu J (2018) 2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean. Adv. Atmos. Sci . Friedrich T et al (2012) Detecting Regional Anthropogenic Trends in Ocean Acidification against Natural Variability, Nature Climate Change . Takamitsu I et al (2017) Upper Ocean O trends: 1958-2015, GRL

Reefs are projected to decline to 10-30% of former cover at 1.5°C and to less than 1% at 2°C By 2050 >98% of coral reefs will be afflicted by annual bleaching Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services - ADVANCE UNEDITED VERSION – 6 May 2019; http://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/files/downloads/spm_unedited_advance_for_posting_htn.pdf?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=ef727151d6-briefing-dy- 20190507&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-ef727151d6-43423877

Invasive Species

Reef Collapse Yates, K. K., Zawada, D. G., Smiley, N. A., and Tiling-Range, G. (2017) Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems, Biogeosciences , 14, 1739-1772, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1739-2017, 2017.

Antarctic ice melt has ‘tripled over the past five years’ Ice loss, Gigatons The IMBIE team (2018) Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature , 558, pages219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y

Greenland faces a 66% chance that melting will become unstoppable at 1.8 o C Ice loss, Gigatons Trusel, et al., 2018 Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming, 104, Nature , v564, 6 December: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0752-4

Mountain Glaciers lost 9,625 billion tons of ice since 1961, raising sea level almost 1 ft M. Zemp et al. Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Nature (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0

The ocean is 40% hotter than previously thought. Cheng, L., et al. (2019) How fast are the oceans warming? Science , 2019 DOI: 10.1126/science.aav7619; Cheng L. J. Zhu, and J. Abraham, 2015: Global upper ocean heat content estimation: recent progress and the remaining challenges. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8. DOI:10.3878/AOSL20150031. ; Glecker, P.J., et al. (2016) Industrial era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades. Nature Climate change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2915

How high will SL rise by 2100? + + = 0.8m Antarctic ice loss Greenland ice loss Mountain glacier ice loss + = 1m by 2100 0.8m Thermal expansion E. Rignot (2019) pers. comm.: http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_191179

10% chance of sea level exceeding 6.5 ft by 2100 "Coastal decisions require long lead times. It would be nice if we could wait for the science to clear up, but we can’t." "If you knew there was a 10% chance a plane would crash, you wouldn't get on it. It's the same with sea level rise," J. L. Bamber, et al. (2019 Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , May 20, 2019; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817205116

Rain + High Tide = Flooding