Climate Change Impacts in Hawaii Chip Fletcher School of Ocean and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change Impacts in Hawaii Chip Fletcher School of Ocean and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change Impacts in Hawaii Chip Fletcher School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Mnoa Honolulu Climate Change Commission Rate of CO 2 accumulation is accelerating. Rate of warming is

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Climate Change Impacts in Hawai‘i

Chip Fletcher School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa Hono‘lulu Climate Change Commission

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Rate of CO2 accumulation is accelerating. Rate of warming is accelerating. Currently 1.2oC (2.2oF) 2030 1.5oC (2.7oF) 2045 2.0oC (3.6oF)

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The world is now 1.2oC (2.2oF) warmer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4bSxb5THm4

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Is global warming part of a natural cycle?

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Ice Cores contain fossil air bubbles

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Melting an ice sample to capture the ancient air it contains

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Ice Ages Interglacials

Climate cycles ~100,000 yrs

Carbon dioxide concentration

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Natural Climate Change is fairly well understood

Axial Precession – 26,000 yrs Axial Obliquity– 41,000 yrs Eccentricity 100,000 and 400,000 yrs

Orbital Parameters determine the intensity and duration of Arctic

summer and lead to ice ages and interglacials.

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Ice Age

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Interglacial

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Marcott, S.A., 2013, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, 08 Mar: 1198-1201Temperature. Schellnhuber, H.J., et al. (2016) Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris, Nature Climate Change, v. 6, July

Ice Age Holocene Interglacial

Slow cooling over the Holocene Anthropogenic warming

  • 3oC – East Antarctic, Permafrost, Winter sea ice
  • 2oC – Amazon Forest, Boreal Forest, Oceanic

Conveyor Belt, ENSO, Sahel, Greenland Ice Sheet

  • 1oC – West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Arctic Sea Ice,

Mountain Glaciers, Coral Reefs Maximum heating from Orbital Parameters

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What are the impacts of climate change in Hawai‘i?

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Hawai‘i is getting warmer

McKenzie, M.M., Giambelluca, T.W., and Diaz, H.F. Accepted. Regional temperature trends in Hawai‘i: a century of change, 1917-2016. International Journal of Climatology.

100-yr change = +0.52°C (+0.94°F)

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Average daily wind speeds are declining

Marra, J.J., and Kruk, M.C. (2017) State of Environmental Conditions in Hawai‘i and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands under a Changing Climate: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/publications/state_of_the_environment_2017_hawaii-usapi_noaa-nesdis-ncei_oct2017.pdf.

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Sea surface temperatures are rising – especially during El Niño

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32 Record Hot Days May 16- June 9, 2019

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6% decrease per decade 30 yrs

Giambelluca, T.W., Diaz, H.F., Elison Timm, O., Takahashi, M., Frazier, A.G., and Longman, R. 2011. Regional climate trends in

  • Hawaii. American

Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 2011.

Hawai‘i is getting drier

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Frazier, A.G., Elison Timm, O., Giambelluca, T.W. and Diaz, H.F. (2018) The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai‘i. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2127–2140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4003-4.

Winter Summer

Declining rainfall in wet and dry seasons; affecting all the major islands.

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Kona drought has been especially intense

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Stream Base Flow

1913-2008 ANNUAL MEDIAN STREAMFLOW, Q50

  • N. Fork Kaukonahua

Kalihi

  • D. Oki, 2004 Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-term Gauging Stations, Hawai‘i,

U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5080.

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Wildfire is increasing in Hawai‘i

Trauernicht, C., E. et al. 2015 The contemporary scale and context of wildfire in Hawaii. Pacific Science 69:427-444

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Less than half of the landscape in Hawai‘i is still dominated by native plants

Jacobi, J. D., J. P. Price, L. B. Fortini, G. 'Ohukani'ohi'a III Samuel M., and P. Berkowitz, 2017: Baseline land cover. Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Storage and Carbon Fluxes in Ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Selmants, P. C., C. P. Giardina, J. D. Jacobi, and Z. Zhu, Eds., U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 9–20. URL

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Avian malaria threatens Hawaiian forest

  • birds. The threat increases with rising

temperature.

Fortini, L. B., A. E. Vorsino, F. A. Amidon, E. H. Paxton, and J. D. Jacobi, 2015: Large-scale range collapse of Hawaiian forest birds under climate change and the need 21st century conservation options. PLOS ONE, 10, e0144311. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140389

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Flooding is a global problem

Lehmann, J., et al. (2015) Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y

Global extreme rainfall has increased 12%

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Lehmann, J., et al. (2015) Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming, Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y

Global extreme rainfall has increased 12%

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O‘ahu, April 2018 State of Emergency, $124 million

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Short steep watersheds w/ heavy development promote flooding

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O‘ahu, April 2018 Water in Wailupe Gulch rose 8 ft

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Kaua‘i, April 2018 49.69 inches in 24-hour, national record

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Kaua‘i, April 2018 Hanalei River rose 15 feet

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Kaua‘i, April 2018 Hanalei River jumped its bank and carved a new channel

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Hurricanes and Climate Change

  • Warmer water = More fuel
  • Larger
  • More rain
  • Stronger wind = Higher

category

  • Slower = More damage
  • Higher storm surge
  • Shifting away from equator
Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Stronger? http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/does-global- warming-make-tropical-cyclones-stronger/
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1994 hurricane season

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2018 hurricane season

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Hurricane Michael, Florida Panhandle, October, 2018

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Hurricane Michael, Florida Panhandle, October, 2018

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Global weather disasters have doubled in two decades

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction: http://reliefweb.int/report/world/human-cost-weather-related-disasters-1995-2015

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Worldwide Extreme Weather Catastrophes

1980-2016

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Oceans are hotter, more acidic, with 2% less oxygen

Cheng LJ and Zhu J (2018) 2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean. Adv. Atmos. Sci. Friedrich T et al (2012) Detecting Regional Anthropogenic Trends in Ocean Acidification against Natural Variability, Nature Climate Change. Takamitsu I et al (2017) Upper Ocean O trends: 1958-2015, GRL

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Reefs are projected to decline to 10-30% of former cover at 1.5°C and to less than 1% at 2°C

Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services - ADVANCE UNEDITED VERSION – 6 May 2019; http://www.ipbes.net/sites/default/files/downloads/spm_unedited_advance_for_posting_htn.pdf?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=ef727151d6-briefing-dy- 20190507&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-ef727151d6-43423877

By 2050 >98% of coral reefs will be afflicted by annual bleaching

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Invasive Species

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Reef Collapse

Yates, K. K., Zawada, D. G., Smiley, N. A., and Tiling-Range, G. (2017) Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems, Biogeosciences, 14, 1739-1772, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1739-2017, 2017.

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Antarctic ice melt has ‘tripled

  • ver the past five years’

The IMBIE team (2018) Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Nature, 558, pages219–222, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y

Ice loss, Gigatons

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Greenland faces a 66% chance that melting will become unstoppable at 1.8oC

Trusel, et al., 2018 Nonlinear rise in Greenland runoff in response to post-industrial Arctic warming, 104, Nature, v564, 6 December: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0752-4

Ice loss, Gigatons

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Mountain Glaciers lost 9,625 billion tons of ice since 1961, raising sea level almost 1 ft

  • M. Zemp et al. Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Nature (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1071-0
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The ocean is 40% hotter than previously thought.

Cheng, L., et al. (2019) How fast are the oceans warming? Science, 2019 DOI: 10.1126/science.aav7619; Cheng L. J. Zhu, and J. Abraham, 2015: Global upper ocean heat content estimation: recent progress and the remaining challenges. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8. DOI:10.3878/AOSL20150031. ; Glecker, P.J., et al. (2016) Industrial era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades. Nature Climate change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2915
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How high will SL rise by 2100?

+ + = 0.8m

Antarctic ice loss Greenland ice loss Mountain glacier ice loss Thermal expansion

+

0.8m

= 1m by 2100

  • E. Rignot (2019) pers. comm.: http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_191179
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10% chance of sea level exceeding 6.5 ft by 2100

  • J. L. Bamber, et al. (2019 Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 20, 2019;

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817205116

"Coastal decisions require long lead times. It would be nice if we could wait for the science to clear up, but we can’t." "If you knew there was a 10% chance a plane would crash, you wouldn't get on it. It's the same with sea level rise,"

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Rain + High Tide = Flooding

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Department of Transportation

  • 140 miles
  • 120 bridges
  • 10-15% all roads
  • $7.5M per lane mile
  • $14M per bridge
  • $15B total
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Coastal Erosion and Beach Loss

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Summer wave run-up 2ft

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Summer wave run-up 3ft

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Are global CO2 emissions decreasing?

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CO2 emissions are rising at record levels

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org

2.7%

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Global emissions must be cut 50% by 2030

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

Rockström, J. et al. (2017) A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science, 355 (6331): 1269. Gasser, T., et al. (2015) Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2oC, Nature Communications 6, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8958.

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Hawaii is in a strong position to lead the world

  • HECO has 7 new projects approved by the PUC
  • One of these will be the single largest solar and storage

deployment in U.S. history

  • Phase II will replace our 180 MW coal plant and build a

stand-alone 200 MW battery that will feed peak demand at less than current pricing.

  • Farmers, cattle ranchers, and fish farms are going

carbon negative and increasing our food security

  • Seawater air conditioning is a cutting edge

advancement

  • Grid modernization strategy is installing “smart meters”

to create new records of efficiency.

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